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  • #221
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:05pm Dec 3, 2007 11:05pm
Hi All,
@ Leighsww,

The chart presented was a GBP/YEN chart.
The cross comprise of GBP/USD against USD/JPY.
so the movements in the respective majors have an impact on the cross.
yes?
(Majors currency pairs = USD/JPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, if renminbi gets to free float probalily be a major due to its size.
Monors pairs: USD/currencies eg USD/dinar, USDpeso, USDlira...
Exotics: USD/ third world currencies also USD/crosses)

The two pairs of GBP?USD and NSD?YEN normally moves in tendem of its natural relationship, which is an inverse relationship.

It is when one leg is not moving in the natural tendency. Or when both is tearing from the norm tendenct that created the swift and directional moves.

I check, You still on?

regards
  • #222
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:25pm Dec 3, 2007 11:25pm
Quoting fti
The two pairs of GBP?USD and NSD?YEN normally moves in tendem of its natural relationship, which is an inverse relationship.

It is when one leg is not moving in the natural tendency. Or when both is tearing from the norm tendenct that created the swift and directional moves.
Okay, that I can understand finally :

Sorta like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, eh?

*edited: Okay, I think I have to strike the above sentence out, cuz I don't think that's what you meant, now that I reread your whole post, lol. There's no strike-out font in this forum software, haha. And I don't wanna just delete it, cuz then I would be covering up just how dense I can be sometimes (okay, maybe more times then I give credit, but that's beside the point

Anyway, we'll have to wait until Zoran wakes up to see what more he can add to our assessments, cuz I'm not even sure I totally understand if I understood his method/trades correctly, lol.
  • #223
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:30pm Dec 3, 2007 11:30pm
Hi Burton,
Just FYI,

Army War College (U.S.) Strategic Studies Institute. Sun Tzu and Clausewitz: The Art of War and On War Compared.

Mendez, Anthony W. (LtCol, USAF). The Gettysburg Campaign: "Know Your Enemy, Know Yourself". Maxwell AFB, AL, Apr 1995. 41 p. (Air University (U.S.) Air War College. Research report)
Discusses the Battle of Gettysburg in light of Sun Tzu's principles of war.

Thompson, Philip S. (Maj, USA). U.S. Army Deception Planning at the Operational Level of War. Fort Leavenworth, KS, Mar 1991
(U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Monograph)

Lots more, google it.

regards
  • #224
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:36pm Dec 3, 2007 11:36pm
Hi ALL,
The Zoran stripings.
----------------------

Sexy looking chart.

Will someone put on the "Cherry Pink And Apple Blossom White",please for enhanced ambience.

Getting rid of the makeup.

I see you use Moving averages. yes?
the Green line being of shorter average time frame.
the red line being of longer time frame than the green line.
then you have the black( maroon) average line, probabily the low read of an average thats close to or equal to that of the red line. Which will put the red line probabily marked against the high compononet of the bar chart.

I cannot see the purpose of the red and black line, except to dazzle you.the green average has some analytical value.
So if you would remove the red and black average it may aliviate clutter fromyour charts.

If you are game try it.

regards
  • #225
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:36pm Dec 3, 2007 11:36pm
Quoting bunton
I thought I was restaining from the details to be honest...
Okay

When fti gets more into his MM and trading strategies, maybe the battle analogy may become more apparent. You have to remember, this is the style that they used in training dealers and how the banks talk, lol.
  • #226
  • Edited Dec 4, 2007 12:10am Dec 3, 2007 11:44pm | Edited Dec 4, 2007 12:10am
Hi leighsww,
correction if Imay,

this is the style that fti used in training dealers and how fti talks, lol.
fti is not all banks, but a few banks had him for some time.
So there is a circle of these fti type people around, still. hopefully.

regards
  • #227
  • Dec 3, 2007 11:47pm Dec 3, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting fti
correction if Imay,

this is the style that fti used in training dealers and how fti talks, lol.
Read my Post #30

In that link I mentioned ...

Quote
Here's the link again from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website (read "Chapter 7: How Dealer's Conduct Foreign Exchange Operations") --> http://www.ny.frb.org/education/addpub/usfxm/

On Page 2 of that particular chapter's document, they talk about the trading rooms being the trenches where the battle is joined and that a winning strategy and a sound battle plan are essential, etc. etc.
... so, looks like other banks use battle jargon, too, lol :
  • #228
  • Dec 4, 2007 12:13am Dec 4, 2007 12:13am
Hi Leigh,

I guess most banks do use the terms,
When we come on to the desk, the term is "battlestations gentlemen".

regards
  • #229
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:29am Dec 4, 2007 1:29am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
The Zoran stripings.
----------------------

Sexy looking chart.

Will someone put on the "Cherry Pink And Apple Blossom White",please for enhanced ambience.

Getting rid of the makeup.

I see you use Moving averages. yes?
the Green line being of shorter average time frame.
the red line being of longer time frame than the green line.
then you have the black( maroon) average line, probabily the low read of an average thats close to or equal to that of the red line. Which will put the red line probabily marked against the high compononet of the bar chart.

I cannot see the purpose of the red and black line, except to dazzle you.the green average has some analytical value.
So if you would remove the red and black average it may aliviate clutter fromyour charts.

If you are game try it.

regards
I think the MA's used may be 50, 100 and 200 which would all be used for support and resistance by Zoran....although I think he said he is still experimenting with these.

I actually was using all as well but have only kept the 50 and use nothing else as this tends to just help me with the "dancing" movement
  • #230
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:50am Dec 4, 2007 1:50am
Well, I may say something about the book,the Art of War.

I have read major part of this book in its original form, which is written in ancient Chinese(quite different from now, without college education level, a native chinese even can't understand) about 2200 years ago.

This book is about the strategy and skills in ancient cold-weapon war. However,the part of the strategies can also be used in business. Btw, Japanese CEOs like to read this book.

As an example, the first sentence of this book in my translation is : war is a very big thing for a country; it is the death or living, survive or to be destroyed. So, you must take extreme care (before engaging a war). For a trader, trading also means survival or be destroyed(like one of 95% losers). So, better analyze, prepare well and make a plan before you initiate an entry.

So maybe just apply some of the strategies in our trading, but not confused with the war or battlefield itself.

I am still holding my short U/J position with -50pips, S/L now is 110.7.

My add-on G/U has -70 now. After I added yesterday, a positive news came out 2 hours later, the profits of add-on became loss. If G/U breaks up 2.07 maybe I will close this loser, since the downtrend would become doubtful.
  • #231
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:42am Dec 4, 2007 2:42am
Quoting Maseyw
I think the MA's used may be 50, 100 and 200 which would all be used for support and resistance by Zoran....although I think he said he is still experimenting with these.

I actually was using all as well but have only kept the 50 and use nothing else as this tends to just help me with the "dancing" movement
Correct, Green is 50 ema, Red is 100 sma and Maroon is 200 ema. I do not trade them and they are experimental only. The 50 ema (green one) seems to be the most worthy.
  • #232
  • Edited 4:05am Dec 4, 2007 2:55am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
The Zoran stripings.
----------------------
Istly the chart you presented is a cross chart.
the nature of crosses
-------------------
being non majors they have a tendency to cluster or tear easily due to that they are less liquid as conpared to majors.

so the runs you see on the chart is probabily due to widen spreads on their one leg of the USD cross, or both widenings of the USD/ currency majors, vreating directional tear, therefore trends.

makes sense?

regards
Hi fti

I'm not sure it is a cross chart. I use mainly support and resistance (primary). The horizontal purple lines sitting at 249, 231.5, 228, 224 and 220.5 are historical support/resistance that is determined on the monthly.

The others (secondary) are price patters, a triangle (consolidation continuation), a wedge (reversal), some harmonic patterns (reversal) and a fib level. As mentioned previously, I don't tend to dress my charts unless I post them and I like to use pretty colours . Otherwise I can just recognise them by eye.
  • #233
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:05am Dec 4, 2007 3:05am
Quoting fti
Istly the chart you presented is a cross chart.
the nature of crosses
Quoting fti
The chart presented was a GBP/YEN chart.
The cross comprise of GBP/USD against USD/JPY.
so the movements in the respective majors have an impact on the cross.
yes?
(Majors currency pairs = USD/JPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, if renminbi gets to free float probalily be a major due to its size.
Monors pairs: USD/currencies eg USD/dinar, USDpeso, USDlira...
Exotics: USD/ third world currencies also USD/crosses)

The two pairs of GBP?USD and NSD?YEN normally moves in tendem of its natural relationship, which is an inverse relationship.

It is when one leg is not moving in the natural tendency. Or when both is tearing from the norm tendenct that created the swift and directional moves.
AHA! I finally got what you are saying, lol.

I was about to go to bed and it hit me in the head, so I had to come back to post this, haha.

Okay, so I was sorta right in my post about EUR/USD and USD/JPY but I would have had to add EUR/JPY to that sentence, cuz those would be cross pairs, no?

Okay, I can go to sleep now, lol. :
  • #234
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:07am Dec 4, 2007 3:07am
Oh and Zoran ... you weren't kidding when you said that GBP/JPY was a wild beast after looking at that pair's charts, lol!
  • #235
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:11am Dec 4, 2007 3:11am
Quoting leighsww
So, am I correct that your entry point was LONG at 232.79 by your above statements? And this was done on Nov. 9, correct (or rather, the arrow in my chart since your timezone may be different than mine for your charts)?

Was the anticipated bounce due to your trendline and fib from your chart?

This may be a good example of how reading the price action may have avoided a call, such as this. Maybe a lesson in patience, as well, no? lol (okay, be gentle when you slap me, lol : ), since it looks like you entered far too early (before there was any real confirmation of an upward move).

Anyway, that's my opinion on this (if I am reading your chart and posts/explanations correctly - cuz it was rather confusing to me with so much going on :, and my not knowing exactly how to read/comprehend all the methods you are using).
.
Entry was at 231.5 (after the back arrow). The problem is that I did not pay attention. I saw that price hit a fairly important support area and the anticipated bounce did occur (at the black arrow) but it was quick and didn't go as high as expected but should have been sufficient to take some profit and lock the trade. I went in late, against the trend and was greedy for a few pips (I tried to catch a falling knife). The action really did speak for itself and that I should have stayed short instead of trying to scalp a long. Price closed on the Friday around the entry but gapped down on the Sunday opening. That's when I got a bit defensive and I now realise the scorpion in myself took over.

I have adjusted my strategy as a lesson learnt so instead of reversing at that point I use it to take some profit (on some entries) and to re-enter should the opportunity arise. So I'm still trading in the direction of the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #236
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:20am Dec 4, 2007 3:20am
Quoting leighsww
Oh and Zoran ... you weren't kidding when you said that GBP/JPY was a wild beast after looking at that pair's charts, lol!
It is a wild beast in that it produces a lot of pips, so 1000 is not a big deal. Also, there seems to be a lot of interest in it for this reason and the carry factor (large interest differential). Also, the story of the Japanese wives exchanging the Yen for such a currency as the GBP during the Yen's depreciation (boosting the carry). I would say liquidity is good but the carry may be unwinding?

Any comments fti?
  • #237
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:54am Dec 4, 2007 3:54am
Quoting fti
Generally if you used less than 3 step for remodest recovery of bad entries on the short time frame, it can still be useful.
Then you also must consider the attack strategy to ride trend that are persistent.
and thats another calculus, you have to workout for yourself,
as doing defensive trading only , isn't worth the effort without a posibility of trend rides.
fti,

I apologize for putting you into a spot with my questions. In the future, if I ask a question that is inappropriate or ill-timed, I most certainly will not care if you tell me so.

That being said, the above paragraph speaks directly to what I had in mind as I was searching for the correct questions.

Thanks a million,

Nat
  • #238
  • Edited 5:34am Dec 4, 2007 4:10am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting Zoran
Entry was at 231.5 (after the back arrow). The problem is that I did not pay attention. I saw that price hit a fairly important support area and the anticipated bounce did occur (at the black arrow) but it was quick and didn't go as high as expected but should have been sufficient to take some profit and lock the trade. I went in late, against the trend and was greedy for a few pips (I tried to catch a falling knife). The action really did speak for itself and that I should have stayed short instead of trying to scalp a long. Price closed on the Friday around the entry but gapped down on the Sunday opening. That's when I got a bit defensive and I now realise the scorpion in myself took over.

I have adjusted my strategy as a lesson learnt so instead of reversing at that point I use it to take some profit (on some entries) and to re-enter should the opportunity arise. So I'm still trading in the direction of the trend.
Zoran

Don't be so hard on your self I think your reasons to long at 231.5 were valid and on any other day would have been a profitable trade, I just think the fall was hard and momentum (momentum precedes price) overcame your analysis on that occasion (you can't be right all the time ).

I did well that day being in from the top took half of at 231.5 and let the rest run in the 'hope' and help from strong momentum that it would continue although would not have been surpised if support held there.

Also 231.5 was a strong level in my book but not as significant as say 240 after the July fall.

Anyway just my novice view .

Fti,

Great thread, compulsive reading.

Nothing contructive to offer in the way of questions or opinions right now, most of it seems way over my head, just trying to digest and understand.
  • #239
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:02am Dec 4, 2007 5:02am
Hi ALL,
@ Zoran,
In respond to post 235

I hope you are clear about that GBP/JPY is actually a spot GBP/USD cross with the spot USD/JPY. There exist no such spot market in the interbank. Its is a cross of two Majors.
If still unclear read #233 again and see if you can understand. In Leighsww accurate words, a cross pair.

Cross pairs (thanks to Leighsww) are normally very dormant, but when they tear, its very wild and swift. OK, we leave that, at that. Just wanted to tell you about the pairs Nature.

----
  • #240
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:03am Dec 4, 2007 5:03am
@Zoran, wow, your short charts a masterpiece of art, absolutely beautiful, but will give an analyst super migrain. I don't kid. How you cope astounds me. LOL
Firstly the volume is meaningless, ok so ty to do without that.
2ndly, the red and black averages are also meaningless. and the green average is parameters off. as it thes me nothing watso ever of the term average or equilibrium prices levels.
3 Your spiral expanding levels also clutters the chart giving no useful readability, therefore I find no use for them.

Analysis
----------
Your attempted entry is actually quite pespectable, baring the fact, as you mentioned, catching a falling knife. Even if you had waited for possible support at that level your long attempted wouldn't be too far of the inital entry. Make no mistake that this make ne any more comfortable in the catching the knife scenerio, only showing that you are a gutsy trader, or someone who have not experienced the wreath of that style.
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