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Technical Analysis Fallacy

i think your post some how acceptable,...

but naturaly succesfull can't come by it's self,...it's need work hard and need god hand,..i mean lucky cases,....cause traders facing realy wild market,...if we not prepare by our strategy,.. the market realy wanna kill us by lossing our money,.....txs fti,...great post
cont.

@ scotta,
I can understand what you are relating. But ponder this,
the fact that you walked into the bettlefield, already puts you in the line of fire.
Although you should impliment, all possible safety protocols,
you should be clear, as to what extent those protocol are real.
Safety is paramount, but when safety msy be counter-productive, then you must reaccess.

@ ALL,
it is my observation that some of you do not read very well, or it could be that I have not articulated clealy to be crystally coherent.
or some of you may be reading too casually.
Whatever the cause, I am sadden, that some very critical points I have made is camouflaged from your understanding. It would suit for you to discuss amongst yourselfs to uncover them.

Another thingy that I would like to highlight to you is that we have moved into Dec.
Dec for dealers is the book closing month.
Most dealers who have made the budget for the year, would be easing off. ( honeymoon month , if you like), therefore expect thinner markets, with pronounced swings due to illiquidity.

Also watch out for the Feds,
no not the FBI, the federal Reserve Board and other CBs. LOL
@ Green_David,
I noticed some issues,namly,

1.Please check your, over-eagerness for battle. although you may not be wrong , that you could time your general expectations, you must not be too confident that, what you read from the charts, MUST happen.

2. Your sighting of the weakness you mention, is derived from the short charts.
Do you have strong reasons for leaving your baby unattended, as there is no evidence of the strong continuation?
Moreover you are carrying your baby over the weekends, while alot of CB talk was expected.
Did you hear about the possible Fed interest rates policy update over the weekend?

3. Did you check the daily chart, to ask it what kind of zone you were trading into?

4. As you mentioned, you had multiple opportunities to have come out of this trade, with minimal damage. yes?

Here's ANOTHER Story.
The Oldman Story.(Another River Story)

Once upon a time, long long ago in China. ( I made this up, not the story )
There was this old and pious man.

Unfortunately for him, the region he was staying got flooded babdly.
Just like his neigbours, the river was rising into his house.
So He made his way up onto the roof of his house.
The water kept rising until , the only thing visible on the ground was the roof of the houses.
Being the pious man he was, he started to pray.

Dear God, Our father in heaven,
Blessed be your name,
Give me this day my salvation,
Forgive me of my sins, I forgive all who sinned me.
Lead me not into temptations, Deliver me from evil,
esp this waters who's trying to swallow me.
For yours is the power , the glory and the kingdom.
Amen

Then he waited., sitting on his rooftop.
Along came a sampan, the people on the sampan urged for the old man,
to come onboard to be taken to safe grounds.
He replied, its alright, you people go along.
God will save me.
The people hearing that, left for higher grounds, confident that his God will save the old man.
The old man waited.
Then a dingy, came along, and the oldman waved the dingy along,
repeating what he had told the people in the sampan.
So along their way the dingy went.
Then much later, a helicopter came along to ferry the old man to safety.
The old man repeated his actions, and waved it along.
As the water rosed, the old man drowned.

When the old man reached heaven, he asked God.
God, why am I dead? Why didn't you answer my prayer?

God replied.
When I heard your prayer, I was so appalled that you were caught in such a horrible situation
that I sent those chaps in the sampan to go get you to safety. But you waved the away.
Seeing that, that didn't help you, I sent the guys in the dingy to see, if they could help you.
Similarly you waved them away.
I thought maybe if I sent the army, in the helicopter to rescue you, that it shouldn't fail.
But you didn't accept the grace anyway.
So that's why you are dead.

----End-----

Just Like the scorpion story,
I would appreciate a one word to summary to this story?

regards

PS: Please be reminded, that the scorpion question is still on.
-------------


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regards
Thanks Suntrader for the info and for highlighting to me.

regards
Regarding the man that drowned = Opportunities
Quoting fti
Since Leighsww is cheerleading for me ( keeping this thread very lively )with running around naked and doing cartwheels and flying somersaults, I thought that I should do my part and have a go on the exercise as well.
ACK!! We don't need two naked cheerleaders here doing cartwheels and somersaults, that could get unsightly! But thank you for your kind words. Okay, enough of that kinda stuff, let's get back to dancing.

Quoting fti
Leighsww, Please reread from my earlier postings ...
Is your comment in reference to what I said to David or jku?

If it's to David, then I think I know what you may be referring to. It's my last paragraph, isn't it? Quite frankly, I, myself, would not have taken the trade to begin with, but since he had already done so, then my solution would have been what I posted, however I would also have exited the original position as soon as I saw signs of retracement and take whatever profit I could (not leave it overnight), in case of consolidation, since I agree, there is no clear sign that the Daily trend is continuing ... but I felt David needs to make that decision for himself in the case he is wanting to do that as a longer-term trade : (but, I do see that leaving that baby unattended without it being clearly out of reach and in a safe-zone is risky and would not be recommended).

However, I will go back and reread your posts, just to get clearer on what I might not be understanding still, lol :

Quoting fti
I would appreciate a one word to summary to this story?
Drowned man story --> Dependence
for the story about the old man, I would say greed/stubborn..............The old man has his mind set and had to be right...........in the end his greed to be "right" killed him.

Rsq955
Quoting Oromis
Regarding the man that drowned = Opportunities
This is good one ... that would probably be one of my choices, as well, if I could have more than one, lol
Quoting fti



Here's ANOTHER Story.
The Oldman Story.(Another River Story)

Once upon a time, long long ago in China. ( I made this up, not the story )
There was this old and pious man.

Unfortunately for him, the region he was staying got flooded babdly.
Just like his neigbours, the river was rising into his house.
So He made his way up onto the roof of his house.
The water kept rising until , the only thing visible on the ground was the roof of the houses.
Being the pious man he was, he started to pray.

Dear God, Our father in heaven,
Blessed be your name,
Give me this day my salvation,
Forgive me of my sins, I forgive all who sinned me.
Lead me not into temptations, Deliver me from evil,
esp this waters who's trying to swallow me.
For yours is the power , the glory and the kingdom.
Amen

Then he waited., sitting on his rooftop.
Along came a sampan, the people on the sampan urged for the old man,
to come onboard to be taken to safe grounds.
He replied, its alright, you people go along.
God will save me.
The people hearing that, left for higher grounds, confident that his God will save the old man.
The old man waited.
Then a dingy, came along, and the oldman waved the dingy along,
repeating what he had told the people in the sampan.
So along their way the dingy went.
Then much later, a helicopter came along to ferry the old man to safety.
The old man repeated his actions, and waved it along.
As the water rosed, the old man drowned.

When the old man reached heaven, he asked God.
God, why am I dead? Why didn't you answer my prayer?

God replied.
When I heard your prayer, I was so appalled that you were caught in such a horrible situation
that I sent those chaps in the sampan to go get you to safety. But you waved the away.
Seeing that, that didn't help you, I sent the guys in the dingy to see, if they could help you.
Similarly you waved them away.
I thought maybe if I sent the army, in the helicopter to rescue you, that it shouldn't fail.
But you didn't accept the grace anyway.
So that's why you are dead.

----End-----

Just Like the scorpion story,
I would appreciate a one word to summary to this story?

regards

PS: Please be reminded, that the scorpion question is still on.
-------------

Hi All

"UNPERCEPTIVE"

I think FTI used this story to highlight that when the market gives you an opportunity to close a position that isn't moving the way you would like it, don't be blind. Make sure you acknowledge the sign(s) the market gives you and close the position at a small loss if need necessary to avoid a bigger unsustainable loss later when it's too late.

ok that's my theory

peace
Hi ALL,

Here were the answers to the scorpion story


leighsww
Okay, for me, there could be two meanings
Turtle = sitting-duck (had to hyphenate, cuz you wanted ONE word, lol)
Scorpion = rigidity

Pips_Cruiser
“Overcoming”
"selfdestruction"

leighsww
"selfdestruction"

FXNorm
SUCKER!

no0odle
"ranging-market"

doremi
Fear & Greed


----------------------------

Maseyw
The nature of the market is random - never be too trusting - never assume too much - babysitting your trade is good - that's my take.

Zoran
Turtle - don't put yourself at risk if you are not comfortable with something. Understand the risk of your trades and do not commit to something that can wipe you out.

moneda
Don't be a turtle
Don't be a scorpion
Instead be A RIVER...go with the flow

daytrading
and I agree with Pips Cruiser on the interpretation.

Green_David's
Good story!
The market is a place of human nature, and that is the reason most of traders lost all finally. But traders still believe the promises emotionally, therefore the market goes on.
---------------------------------

Actually , the targeted date of relaease of the answer was 21 jan 2008. But then Leighsww, convinced me that it was too long away.lest you people may think that I am a teaser.

The reason for such a log time was for you to learn discipline and patience. Not so unlike waiting for market trends.
Anyways please know that you will be missing out the training of patience. You gotta learn it yourself now !
So learn well.

For the scorpion story, there are no wrong answers , just that some of you didn't understand , the request was for ONE WORD.

The lesson my dad taught me was about the human self-destructive nature.
Thats why we smoke.
Thats why we drink.
Thats why we take drugs and medicine (poison)
Thats why we lov to lov chicks that are naughty.
and thats why most people get killed in markets.

He was not a Forex trader , he was a business man , but he knew the consiquences of the human nature.

You see mankind loves to destroy, its easier and their nature.
We destroy so that we can rebuilt.

Many traders harbours this self-destructive machanism, in their sub contious .
even lots of dealers. It's an urge, thingy, something that you cannot scratch.

The fact that most traders are successful in life, otherwise they wouldn't have the capital to trade, works against them. Because they would throough their suceesses have developed a kind of confidence about themselves. When this confidence is carried into positions in markets, it tend to work to their detriment , esp when the view is errorneous. But not unlike W Buffet, it can also work in their favour, the prerequisite is close to unlimited cpitalisation.

I won't go into explaining about the word I was looking for "self-destructive" in the story, if you cannot see it, discuss the subject, I am sure you will find the reasoning.

regards
Quoting fti
Actually , the targeted date of relaease of the answer was 21 jan 2008. But then Leighsww, convinced me that it was too long away.lest you people may think that I am a teaser.

The reason for such a log time was for you to learn discipline and patience. Not so unlike waiting for market trends.
Anyways please know that you will be missing out the training of patience. You gotta learn it yourself now !
So learn well.
ACK! But then I told you after you mentioned what the lesson was supposed to be, to go ahead with your plans, lol.

Sheesh, you don't have to do what I tell you to do, you know ... what are you, my puppet?! :
Quoting fti
The lesson my dad taught me was about the human self-destructive nature.
Thats why we smoke.
Thats why we drink.
Thats why we take drugs and medicine (poison)
Thats why we lov to lov chicks that are naughty.
and thats why most people get killed in markets.

He was not a Forex trader , he was a business man , but he knew the consiquences of the human nature.
Insightful man, your dad was ... what a good lesson.
Hi Leighsww,

Come on , don't take it that way,
If I didn't see your reasoning behind it, I wonldn't have conplied.

Make no mistake, I'm and never be anyone's puppet.
Wait it my wife reads this, LOL.

regards
Fti, Leigh, masterpiecefx:

Thank you for your advice.

The UD/JPY went down today, but couldn't break 110.5 by now. So God gives me another chance.

I will wait until U/J goes up again and break 101.7 level, I will accept the loss and close the position.

fti,

You are right, U/J didn't have a clear sign to go south the time I set up my short position. I need to be more patient.

David
Quoting fti
Come on , don't take it that way,
If I didn't see your reasoning behind it, I wonldn't have conplied.

Make no mistake, I'm and never be anyone's puppet.
Wait it my wife reads this, LOL.
LOL!!

I know you ain't nobody's puppet, but I told you I was going to get you back, haha :
The fault, Dear Brutus, lies not in the stars but in ourselves...

Julius Caesar

Shakespeare
Hi ALL,

Don't worry about the old man story, it won't be jan .
Just waiting for a few more resposes , thats all.

regards

By the way any Dr. Murray Banks , students here?
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Don't worry about the old man story, it won't be jan .
Just waiting for a few more resposes , thats all.

regards

By the way any Dr. Murray Banks , students here?
You said that this month is big player's closing month. Since the beginning of this year, EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc. increased a lot, the prices of them have more chances to down? Or, we may say more selling power for these pairs.

Cheers.

David
Hi David,

Don't know. What do you think.
One thing for sure, its gonna be wild, on both sidesa.
be cautious and nimble.

regards
Good morning FTI and thank you for starting such a valuable and thought provoking thread. Last week I decided to simplify my trading, get rid of clutter and start watching just the price and its reaction around key levels....then yesterday I discovered this thread......some synchronicity!

Whilst I'm not quite ready yet to shed every last line and join the nudist colony (naturalist in the US?) - I've made a good start and will follow this thread with great interest - now back to the begining to see if I can assimilate your posts and hopefuly contribute with meaningfull replies.

Here's a start - IMO the old man was suffering from a severe condition of "closed-mindedness"
Trading Levels with WRBs
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

By the way any Dr. Murray Banks , students here?
No . . . but I did find something of his online just now:

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