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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #52,661
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:50am Nov 30, 2007 5:50am
Here's another food 4 thought 4 those munching on the Patience Pills

Attached is the Monthly GU chart which shows GU in a long term uptrend. Close of the previous monthly candle was @ 2.0822. If todays candle closes below that level, we would have a Pinbar on the monthly which could reverse this longterm trend. For more details on Pinbars, refer 2 James16 thread. Also note the Gap on Daily charts @ 2.0908...Happy Pipping all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly gu.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #52,662
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:52am Nov 30, 2007 5:52am
Quoting forexnovice
Ya mean 200+ pips...
\
NO i mean 2000 pips im waiting for that weekly break of the head n shoulders looks too perfect not to play out also 4 rate cutting in q1 by the boe all looks perfect im targeting 210
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  • #52,663
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:53am Nov 30, 2007 5:53am
12hr Moms which started at 11:00 GMT all pointing down.
Lets check the 12 hr which starts at 12:00 as well
Attached Image
Regards
  • #52,664
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:57am Nov 30, 2007 5:57am
Quoting quickh23a
\
NO i mean 2000 pips im waiting for that weekly break of the head n shoulders looks too perfect not to play out also 4 rate cutting in q1 by the boe all looks perfect im targeting 210
Now thats reaally longterm 4 me...:
  • #52,665
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:01am Nov 30, 2007 6:01am
Quoting forexnovice
Now thats reaally longterm 4 me...:

Thats the only way i tarde this pair i dont like the 100 pip runs they get me too nervous because of the volatility i rather play the gbpusd with a little more lots. that neckline has to be broken and fundies back it off as well. when was the last time BOE were to cut rates 4-5 times in a year ?
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  • #52,666
  • Edited 10:57pm Nov 30, 2007 6:12am | Edited 10:57pm
12hr momentum, all pointing south But 10c & 14c still above zero line.. the 1c slightly below zero indiacating a retracement 2 12hr 5 sma low @227.63
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12hr mom.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #52,667
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:42am Nov 30, 2007 6:42am
Quoting quickh23a
\
NO i mean 2000 pips im waiting for that weekly break of the head n shoulders looks too perfect not to play out also 4 rate cutting in q1 by the boe all looks perfect im targeting 210
In order for that head and shoulders to play out, a weekly bar has to close beneath a 7 year old trend line that has not been broken since Sep 2000. It took a crack at it last week, but couldn't get through it. It tried at the Aug lows but couldn't get through it. So are times bad enough for that to happen? I don't know, maybe, maybe not. But as each week passes and that trend line is not broken, it's price gets higher and higher.

Time will tell.
Attached Image
  • #52,668
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:48am Nov 30, 2007 6:48am
I think we have a bearish formation on U/J H1 charts. This might push g/j down with it.
  • #52,669
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:53am Nov 30, 2007 6:53am
Quoting brucehvn
In order for that head and shoulders to play out, a weekly bar has to close beneath a 7 year old trend line that has not been broken since Sep 2000. It took a crack at it last week, but couldn't get through it. It tried at the Aug lows but couldn't get through it. So are times bad enough for that to happen? I don't know, maybe, maybe not. But as each week passes and that trend line is not broken, it's price gets higher and higher.

Time will tell.
I think now is the time that things get bad, BOE will cut 4 times at least next year and that will make the ineterst diffance not as attractive for that pair and usd rates are going down so usdjpy will also not gain as rates get lower and lower so in my view if we were looking for a good time its now (1-2 month)
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  • #52,670
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:03am Nov 30, 2007 7:03am
Quoting quickh23a
I think now is the time that things get bad, BOE will cut 4 times at least next year and that will make the ineterst diffance not as attractive for that pair and usd rates are going down so usdjpy will also not gain as rates get lower and lower so in my view if we were looking for a good time its now (1-2 month)
So what are you doing now, are you building up shorts as the price moves up or are you waiting to short at a higher level?
Regards
  • #52,671
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:10am Nov 30, 2007 7:10am
Quoting howard
So what are you doing now, are you building up shorts as the price moves up or are you waiting to short at a higher level?

Not shorting yet, once it hits that 61.8 level im placing my first short, and another at every feib level.
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  • #52,672
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:13am Nov 30, 2007 7:13am
The monthly chart is also now showing the head and shoulders pattern, a bit more cleanly than the weekly. Looking at a line chart of the monthly, you could say the neckline has already been broken. As M2B pointed out earlier, the weekly line chart also would show the neckline was broken last week.
Attached Images
  • #52,673
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:19am Nov 30, 2007 7:19am
Quoting brucehvn
The monthly chart is also now showing the head and shoulders pattern, a bit more cleanly than the weekly. Looking at a line chart of the monthly, you could say the neckline has already been broken. As M2B pointed out earlier, the weekly line chart also would show the neckline was broken last week.

I see that now, i didnt pay attention to the monthly charts, it just makes our tarde even look better, now all we need is patience and be strong enough not to run out of the trade early
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  • #52,674
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:37am Nov 30, 2007 8:37am
Quoting bcorsaut24
right now i see UJ might pullback into 10.5 area (strong support)...then head back up...

i assume GJ will follow....waiting for that UJ pullback, and then I will enter on GJ and ride it to 230

does anybody else think 230 is the next expected resistance (besides aus who said 230.2)??
IF you would like
I will pm u about resistance iand how u can easily determine it...iff u like its easy to get the expected R1 R2 R3 resistance levels there are even website that I will not post here that can guide u with that as well as pivot points.......forgive me if i am out of line but u seem a bit confused

i was also confused until i started following this thread

now i think i understand that pivot points are a good place to start to consider a trade (either long or short from that pivot point) and if they(pivot points break and hold) then the resistance or support R1 R2 R3 = expected resistance S1 S2 S3 = expected support.....become the next area of concern (please correct me if I am wrong) I starting to get it!

thank you so much to all of you wonderful traders in this thread.... i have learned so much hanging around in here.... can't wait to sign up for aus service and help red cross in the mean time
  • #52,675
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:39am Nov 30, 2007 8:39am
Quoting forexnovice
Now thats reaally longterm 4 me...:

GOOD MORNING ALL

LOOKS LIKE AUS WAS RIGHT AGAIN

WE ARE AT 229.10

AUS WAS CORRECT ALMOST TO THE PIP ....AMAZING
  • #52,676
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:42am Nov 30, 2007 8:42am
Quoting karmostaji
It's Friday, It's the end of the month. There is no need to risk n trade on such a day. I've made more than enough pips (elhamdulelah )

Have a great weekend everyone and remember greed kills

THANK YOU SO MUCH KARM

YOU RULE

HAVE A WONDERFUL WEEKEND

  • #52,677
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:04am Nov 30, 2007 9:04am
Quoting forexnovice
12hr momentum, all pointing south But 10c & 14c still above zero line.. the 1c slightly below zero indiacating a retracement 2 12hr 5 sma low @226.63

if you are bold enough to trade today i think u may see the following range

from 4 hour s1 to pivot to r1 which are as follows 228.21to 228.76to 229.52 and frequently returning to 228.76 4 hour pivot point

I say this because i see no clear reversal signs indicating a short yet.... so we still in long trend for the moment... but its friday and end of month which is a signal to me of choppiness and ranging with spikes (profit takers etc.)
  • #52,678
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:23am Nov 30, 2007 9:23am
Quoting dagoods
GOOD MORNING ALL

LOOKS LIKE AUS WAS RIGHT AGAIN

WE ARE AT 229.10

AUS WAS CORRECT ALMOST TO THE PIP ....AMAZING
Getting there slowly.....give me say a coupla years
  • #52,679
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:23am Nov 30, 2007 9:23am
Quoting dagoods
if you are bold enough to trade today i think u may see the following range

from 4 hour s1 to pivot to r1 which are as follows 228.21to 228.76to 229.52 and frequently returning to 228.76 4 hour pivot point

I say this because i see no clear reversal signs indicating a short yet.... so we still in long trend for the moment... but its friday and end of month which is a signal to me of choppiness and ranging with spikes (profit takers etc.)
Based on the 4 hour chart, if it closes where it's at or lower we will have a bearish engulfment pattern. Looking to the lower timeframes, I'd be willing to short for a teancy weancy 40 pip profit. I hope everyone has been making money on this pair the last two days.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #52,680
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:26am Nov 30, 2007 9:26am
Quoting dagoods
if you are bold enough to trade today i think u may see the following range

from 4 hour s1 to pivot to r1 which are as follows 228.21to 228.76to 229.52 and frequently returning to 228.76 4 hour pivot point

I say this because i see no clear reversal signs indicating a short yet.... so we still in long trend for the moment... but its friday and end of month which is a signal to me of choppiness and ranging with spikes (profit takers etc.)
Thnx 4 the heads up
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