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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #52,521
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:22pm Nov 29, 2007 8:22pm
Nice triangle continuation pattern on 15M. Breakout is imminent within the next 30 minutes or so, IMO.
  • #52,522
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:23pm Nov 29, 2007 8:23pm
I'm guessing that big spike was from Bernake's speech. Now I think we will just see the usual range dance through the Asian session until Frankfurt/London.

I think it will just range now above the fixed daily pivot.

As far as Aus's 15 min trade. If I remember the rules right, it also says you only trade after 04:00 GMT. I put in a demo trade when it signaled using the SLR line as the SL and got stopped out. It now has a down arrow, so until it crosses back up and it's after 04:00 GMT, there really isn't a 15min trade yet (Based on the rules).
  • #52,523
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:25pm Nov 29, 2007 8:25pm
so it seems like we remain pretty bullish until at least about 230, which is pretty close to a daily trendline that was resistance in sept, support in oct, and possibly resistance again soon

sound about right?
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #52,524
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:29pm Nov 29, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting cancunkev
Not a problem...

Now all together now....GOOOOOOOO GEPPY!!!!
I'm bullish but at the same time I'm patient. Remember that 9 out of 10 people lose in this game so if most agree with you, probability will be against you. The more I hear long the more I'm convinced that my entry at 225.2 is ideal. Either way, I'm out until entry is reached.
  • #52,525
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:31pm Nov 29, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting karmostaji
Daily QQE is crossed upwards and we also have 2 bars now formed above the Daily Gann hilo.
hi Karm,
i just want to understand when u speaked about the daily Gann hilo that it was crossed 3 hours ago and there was 2 candels formed above it..i looked for it but as it is a daily candle in the daily chart there's wasn't any other 2 candles..or u look for the daily Gann hilo's position and return tot he hour or 4HR chart to look at it and confirm or what?

thanks in advance bro
  • #52,526
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:36pm Nov 29, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting pipmaster
I'm bullish but at the same time I'm patient. Remember that 9 out of 10 people lose in this game so if most agree with you, probability will be against you. The more I hear long the more I'm convinced that my entry at 225.2 is ideal. Either way, I'm out until entry is reached.
i dont know about 225.20; it seems a little too low...i think about 226.5 might be nice based on a few trendlines

either way, i think we're in agreement on bullish throughout the day??
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #52,527
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:41pm Nov 29, 2007 8:41pm
well, i've been trading this pair all day. it was a nail-biter until it finally broke out. closed out my trades for good profit and then found a re-entry at 227.14... now it looks like the trendline will be re-tested and that 226.50-226.70 bounce would be a good entry if you're not in yet. i'm not worried about the bullishness yet at this point and do expect the 231 by mid-morning so I'm comfortable with my position
  • #52,528
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:44pm Nov 29, 2007 8:44pm
Quoting bcorsaut24
i dont know about 225.20; it seems a little too low...i think about 226.5 might be nice based on a few trendlines

either way, i think we're in agreement on bullish throughout the day??
Yes, agreed with the bullishness and I expect 225 in London. Off to bed and awake for London.
  • #52,529
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:48pm Nov 29, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting pipmaster
I'm bullish but at the same time I'm patient. Remember that 9 out of 10 people lose in this game so if most agree with you, probability will be against you. The more I hear long the more I'm convinced that my entry at 225.2 is ideal. Either way, I'm out until entry is reached.
I believe that's an unsound logic. 9 out of 10 people losing doesn't necessarily mean all of them are trading this particular trade wrongly. Not few of them might be right about the direction in that particular time interval, but maybe they have certain error in the other aspects of trading, such as where they put their stop loss (resulting in being kicked out from a spike in an otherwise would've been a profitable trade), or being right in this trade but getting greedily irrational or/and having feeble money management in the next trade resulting in a blown account, etc.
  • #52,530
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:53pm Nov 29, 2007 8:53pm
truth^^^

there are way too many variables as to why the majority of traders lose...

you would think that if more people are on the same boat and think the market will go one direction (and all give their two cents as to why)...then your odds would increase
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #52,531
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:56pm Nov 29, 2007 8:56pm
Quoting pipmaster
Yes, agreed with the bullishness and I expect 225 in London. Off to bed and awake for London.
i think there is just way too much support for it to go that low....a couple trendlines, the 61.8 fib, which just so happens to be right on the 100ema and 200 ema on the 4hr chart...

im still sticking with somewhere around 226-226.5 at the lowest

anybody???
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #52,532
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:58pm Nov 29, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting jurrigggg
I believe that's an unsound logic. 9 out of 10 people losing doesn't necessarily mean all of them are trading this particular trade wrongly. Not few of them might be right about the direction in that particular time interval, but maybe they have certain error in the other aspects of trading, such as where they put their stop loss (resulting in being kicked out from a spike in an otherwise would've been a profitable trade), or being right in this trade but getting greedily irrational or/and having feeble money management in the next trade resulting in a blown account, etc.
You have a point and I can see that long is probably right, but if someone has entered at 227.00 and is up 20 pips now, when it goes back to 225 they will panic at a 200 pip loss and close. That's when I come in and long at an ideal level. The problem is not the entry or direction but usually timing and discipline.
  • #52,533
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:59pm Nov 29, 2007 8:59pm
doesnt matter guys, just trade YOUR plan, win or lose. if it goes to wherever lets be prepared to trade it
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #52,534
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:03pm Nov 29, 2007 9:03pm
Best thing to do is to concentrate on how we should win and not how others loose. Not trying to offend anyone but thinking to go against the market just because 95% of retail traders loose, doesn't make any sense.
  • #52,535
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:04pm Nov 29, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting moneymagnet
doesnt matter guys, just trade YOUR plan, win or lose. if it goes to wherever lets be prepared to trade it
no doubt....just discussing
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #52,536
  • Edited 9:17pm Nov 29, 2007 9:05pm | Edited 9:17pm
On VT trader: the Moms on: daily, 4h, 2h and 1 h are bearish.

On Mt4: there is also a bearish bat pattern (zup 67) on 1h, 30 and 15 min.

BR
  • #52,537
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:06pm Nov 29, 2007 9:06pm
Just a tid bit for you all, take it for what it is worth. . .
EU banks bought up UJ at the lows this morning in NY session and model investors have been buying GU during Asian session at market. . .

GJ is poised to go up 2morrow breaking the resistance through 229 area. The target is 229.80 and I think we will see it go to 230 and possibly above.

UJ is in an uptrend (reversal pattern) so it will possibly try to break out of the range of 109.65/85 to 110.50/85 soon and head to test 111.70's. If broken we could see an extended wave up to 113/114 (possibly) before a turn back south. . .

A weak dollar is not in the interest of other countries (China) right now so I think we will see banks prop UJ up for the time being. . .

As long as UJ is above 110.00 and GU is above 2.0600, GJ is going to go up. Therefore those two pairs are the pairs to watch for clues as to what GJ will do. Also, this kinda correlates to Zoran's theory of it possibly going up to retest 241/243 area in the long term.

Lastly, if you look at the 1hr chart GJ is consolidating above 227 and creating a pennant flag which usually ends the way it started and in this case its up. Take a look for yourself.

But heh as usual trade what u see and we shall all see how this plays out. . .

Just my two cents. . .

Long at 226.30's and plan to hold now to the end of the day 2morrow, b/c's if we break 229.30/50 resistance then this pair may go even higher. . .

Fundamentals + Good Strategy + Good Technical Analysis = Green Pips!

  • #52,538
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:11pm Nov 29, 2007 9:11pm
Quoting moneymagnet
doesnt matter guys, just trade YOUR plan, win or lose. if it goes to wherever lets be prepared to trade it
Hear hear... each to themselves. So I'll be back in 5 hours expecting 225 at 08:00 London time and ready for a long. Otherwise I'm out.
  • #52,539
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:13pm Nov 29, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting quecee5
Just a tid bit for you all, take it for what it is worth. . .
EU banks bought up UJ at the lows this morning in NY session and model investors have been buying GU during Asian session at market. . .

GJ will go up 2morrow breaking the resistance through 229 area. The target is 229.80 and I think we will see it go to 230 and possibly above.

UJ is in an uptrend it will break out of the range of 109.65/85 to 110.50/85 soon and head to test 111.70's. If broken we could see an extended wave up to 113/114 (possibly) before a turn back south. . .

A weak dollar is not in the interest of other countries (China) right now so I think we will see banks prop UJ up for the time being. . .

As long as UJ is above 110.00 and GU is above 2.0600, GJ is going to go up. Therefore those two pair are the pairs to watch for clues as to what GJ will do. Also, this kinda correlates to Zoran's theory of it possibly going up to retest 241/243 area. . .

Lastly, if you look at the 1hr chart GJ is creating a flag pennant which usully in the way it started and in this case is up. Take a look for yourself.

But heh as usual trade what u see and we shall all see how this plays out. . .

Just my two cents. . .

Long at 226.30's and plan to hold now to the end of the day 2morrow, b/c's if we break 229.30/50 resistance then this pair may go even higher. . .

Fundamentals + Good Strategy + Good Technical Analysisi = Green Pips!

Good analysis! Add the usual christmas rally and g/j is surely looking bullish going into the next month.
  • #52,540
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:16pm Nov 29, 2007 9:16pm
Quoting auslanco
Thanks Blue rose.. You were missing for a while. We missed your daily-fx posts. Hope everything is well with you.
I've been travelling and under the weather too..will try to be here more often...Thank you for your beautiful, eye pleasing website...will try to write you a PM this weekend...BR
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