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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #52,301
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:20am Nov 29, 2007 8:20am
Quoting bcorsaut24
agreed on the sidelines....

there are reasons it could go up....and reasons for it to go down....i guess we'll see
You are really a predictor , undoubtedly it will move a side...!!!! up or even down ....
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #52,302
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:20am Nov 29, 2007 8:20am
Quoting FX-Petra
quecee,
Please remember that weekly momentum is down (from Auslanco) and that we have already gone up and touched the weekly 5sma low---and retreated back down. Weekly Momentum is not always a perfect indicator...but it seems it is a powerful magnet that usually draws price in its direction. For price to go up (by noon Friday) to 230/231 it will have to do so against weekly momentum.
i don't know how accurate this is but it seems the weekly mom's lag until the next week, meaning that it seems like when we have bullish weekly mom's it seems to come to fruition the monday/tuesday of the following week. i am not too good w/weekly's anyone's help would be greatly appreciated.

thanks
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #52,303
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:21am Nov 29, 2007 8:21am
Now We Have double 226.24 on 5 Minute , I think it should be crossed too.
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #52,304
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:22am Nov 29, 2007 8:22am
Quoting FX-Petra
quecee,
Please remember that weekly momentum is down (from Auslanco) and that we have already gone up and touched the weekly 5sma low---and retreated back down. Weekly Momentum is not always a perfect indicator...but it seems it is a powerful magnet that usually draws price in its direction. For price to go up (by noon Friday) to 230/231 it will have to do so against weekly momentum.
FX-Petra,

Thank you very much for that information. . . Is that in Aus. daily blog or his daily momentum thread?
  • #52,305
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:24am Nov 29, 2007 8:24am
Quoting Pyramid
I am surprised that both of us where following same movement on market .... lol
great minds think alike! but i am sidelined for now, but thinking about a small long with reasoning that the 4hr 50 ema will hold as support (meaning it won't close below, may spike through it however)
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #52,306
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:32am Nov 29, 2007 8:32am
Quoting moneymagnet
i don't know how accurate this is but it seems the weekly mom's lag until the next week, meaning that it seems like when we have bullish weekly mom's it seems to come to fruition the monday/tuesday of the following week. i am not too good w/weekly's anyone's help would be greatly appreciated.

thanks
for price to reach the 230/231 area we will need a daily candle to cross over 2 weekly 5sma lines (low and close) in the opposite direction on weekly momentum. This happens sometimes, but not very often. If we are going there then why not go for the 234 area? This would have a daily candle crossing all 3 weekly 5sma's! This may well happen, but if you bet on that regularly you will lose a lot of pips! A more realistice scenario (by noon Friday) is the 229.50 area (weekly 5sma close). I would not take the trade because it goes against momentum so late in the week, but it is a realistic target if you have strong reasons to be long.
  • #52,307
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:39am Nov 29, 2007 8:39am
Quoting quecee5
FX-Petra,

Thank you very much for that information. . . Is that in Aus. daily blog or his daily momentum thread?
From the thread. The Blog usually only updated for Asian, London, and US sessions. Weekly momentum coupled with daily momentum have change the way I trade and done a lot to keep me out of bad situations.
  • #52,308
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:43am Nov 29, 2007 8:43am
Quoting FX-Petra
quecee,
Please remember that weekly momentum is down (from Auslanco) and that we have already gone up and touched the weekly 5sma low---and retreated back down. Weekly Momentum is not always a perfect indicator...but it seems it is a powerful magnet that usually draws price in its direction. For price to go up (by noon Friday) to 230/231 it will have to do so against weekly momentum.
That is not exactly true. As you stated, the weekly and monthly momentum is difficult to gauge, as far as where price will end in a particular week or month. Price opened this week just above 224 and dropped down to below 222. before moving back up to touch the weekly 5SMA close. Weekly Momentum actually shows a mixed bag for this week. Price has followed momentum down and up. Remember, Momentum does not necessarily indicate where price will 'finish' for that particular TF. It only indicates that price will make a run up or down in the direction of Momentum. Where price ends up is determined by the strength of Momentum (how many of the three Momentums are actually pointing in the same direction), fundamentals and other technical analysis factors. Since we have seen both the high and low levels touched this week, as predetermined by the 1c and 14c Momentums on the Weekly Chart, we need to look at the lower TFs to determine which direction price will move for the remainder of the week. My Daily is extremely bearish. We have already moved down over 200 pips since it began, and we have touched the Daily 5SMA high. Price could still go lower, perhaps to the 61.8 Fib around 225.80, but my new 12H chart, which just updated at 7AM EST, is extremely bullish. So for now, the 12H is telling me we will see bullishness until possibly 7PM EST. That means price could go back up to the Weekly 5SMA close around 229.60, or even push up to the Daily 50EMA around 231.20. What will determine the outcome? Fundamentals, technicals and ultimately price movement, which is an indicator in and of itself, which most traders forget about.

M2B
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy weekly.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy daily.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #52,309
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:44am Nov 29, 2007 8:44am
Quoting FX-Petra
From the thread. The Blog usually only updated for Asian, London, and US sessions. Weekly momentum coupled with daily momentum have change the way I trade and done a lot to keep me out of bad situations.

cnbc talking about how great britain may have a housing bubble that may "pop" sometime next year! won't that be fun for us!
  • #52,310
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:45am Nov 29, 2007 8:45am
Looks like 226.20 is playing a powerful support role for the market right now. I it is the second time that price bounces back up over this area but I dont see any fib level around here. Is it really a real support? if it were, it should be 226.50 which is 50% fib retracement according to Zup 67 fibo retracement but the price has already penetrated that level 2 times.

I deduce therefore that we may see further downtrend for a while.

what do the other guys think about that?
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #52,311
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:50am Nov 29, 2007 8:50am
Quoting moneymagnet
great minds think alike! but i am sidelined for now, but thinking about a small long with reasoning that the 4hr 50 ema will hold as support (meaning it won't close below, may spike through it however)
That's what I am thinking, that price could go down to the 4H 50EMA around 225.85, which is where the 61.8 Fib is also.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #52,312
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:53am Nov 29, 2007 8:53am
Quoting arezab
Looks like 226.20 is playing a powerful support role for the market right now. I it is the second time that price bounces back up over this area but I dont see any fib level around here. Is it really a real support? if it were, it should be 226.50 which is 50% fib retracement according to Zup 67 fibo retracement but the price has already penetrated that level 2 times.

I deduce therefore that we may see further downtrend for a while.

what do the other guys think about that?
maybe pivot points will be telltale 1 hour =22.6 4 hour = 226.6 which is where we are right now.... break above or below and strong close in a direction may point us in direction....what u all think?
  • #52,313
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:55am Nov 29, 2007 8:55am
Quoting dagoods
maybe pivot points will be telltale 1 hour =22.6 4 hour = 226.6 which is where we are right now.... break above or below and strong close in a direction may point us in direction....what u all think?
1 hour pivot 226.6 4 hour pivot same
  • #52,314
  • Nov 29, 2007 8:55am Nov 29, 2007 8:55am
Quoting my2buoys
That is not exactly true. As you stated, the weekly and monthly momentum is difficult to gauge, as far as where price will end in a particular week or month. Price opened this week just above 224 and dropped down to below 222. before moving back up to touch the weekly 5SMA close. Weekly Momentum actually shows a mixed bag for this week. Price has followed momentum down and up. Remember, Momentum does not necessarily indicate where price will 'finish' for that particular TF. It only indicates that price will make a run up or down in the direction of Momentum. Where price ends up is determined by the strength of Momentum (how many of the three Momentums are actually pointing in the same direction), fundamentals and other technical analysis factors. Since we have seen both the high and low levels touched this week, as predetermined by the 1c and 14c Momentums on the Weekly Chart, we need to look at the lower TFs to determine which direction price will move for the remainder of the week. My Daily is extremely bearish. We have already moved down over 200 pips since it began, and we have touched the Daily 5SMA high. Price could still go lower, perhaps to the 61.8 Fib around 225.80, but my new 12H chart, which just updated at 7AM EST, is extremely bullish. So for now, the 12H is telling me we will see bullishness until possibly 7PM EST. That means price could go back up to the Weekly 5SMA close around 229.60, or even push up to the Daily 50EMA around 231.20. What will determine the outcome? Fundamentals, technicals and ultimately price movement, which is an indicator in and of itself, which most traders forget about.

M2B

M2B
M2B, I really appreciate the detailed explanation. I was trying to wrap my hand around how momentum worked but was still a bit confused up until now. Ultimately, my goal is to trade daily (Aus.'s strategy) as I see it as being less stressful and less time consuming.

Thxs a bunch. . .
  • #52,315
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:00am Nov 29, 2007 9:00am
Quoting my2buoys
That's what I am thinking, that price could go down to the 4H 50EMA around 225.85, which is where the 61.8 Fib is also.

M2B
another great mind. lol. remember fellow traders you don't have to get every single pip of a move. i know people in here get hundreds of pips per day but with proper mm 50 pips per week would make you a millionaire in 2 years or less (starting with only a thousand bucks). lets let price decide the move then jump in. now if i could only remember to do what i say
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #52,316
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:00am Nov 29, 2007 9:00am
Quoting arezab
Looks like 226.20 is playing a powerful support role for the market right now. I it is the second time that price bounces back up over this area but I dont see any fib level around here. Is it really a real support? if it were, it should be 226.50 which is 50% fib retracement according to Zup 67 fibo retracement but the price has already penetrated that level 2 times.

I deduce therefore that we may see further downtrend for a while.

what do the other guys think about that?
226.20 is the Weekly 5SMA Low. Though it is not a Fib level, it should be considered support for that reason. Certain MAs (such as the 50EMA, 100SMA and 200EMA) act as good areas of S & R on all TFs. The 5SMA high, low and close acts as very good S & R, especially on the higher TFs.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy weekly.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #52,317
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:02am Nov 29, 2007 9:02am
Quoting arezab
Looks like 226.20 is playing a powerful support role for the market right now. I it is the second time that price bounces back up over this area but I dont see any fib level around here. Is it really a real support? if it were, it should be 226.50 which is 50% fib retracement according to Zup 67 fibo retracement but the price has already penetrated that level 2 times.

I deduce therefore that we may see further downtrend for a while.

what do the other guys think about that?
226.19 is S1 on hourly pivot,
S2 is 225.85 on hourly (which is also 61.8% fib.)

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_ana..._200603215764/
  • #52,318
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:07am Nov 29, 2007 9:07am
Nice my target

Hope Bender is fine...I really like him.
  • #52,319
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:08am Nov 29, 2007 9:08am
Quoting uncleforex
Nice my target

Hope Bender is fine...I really like him.
nice call unclefx
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #52,320
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:09am Nov 29, 2007 9:09am
M2B,
My daily is beaish also. I am no momentum expert...but I use the following gudie: I only take trades when daily and weekly momentum are in agreement. If 4h also agrees--that makes it extra special. That is different from scalps, which I will do occasionaly for fewer pips on the lower time frames. Only taking trades in the direction of Weekly momentum has certainly kept me out of some good trades (sometimes only 1 trade per week), but it has also kept me out of some bad ones as well!
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