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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,701
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:48am Nov 27, 2007 11:48am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I was lucky yesterday, and didn't get any bad trades. I was at lunch when the big dive took place, and it hit TP while away. Then I missed the big jump up, but correctly saw it was done, heading for a 50% retrace, and took advantage of that.

I see something very similar going on right now. Price will head up to our TP area, loiter around for awhile, then go back down. Right now it's gathering up a few buys for the trip north.

PC, it may take a run up to 225.30 before finally heading south. I think there are some stops up there. I'm prepared to add to my short if decides to go up there. . .
  • #51,702
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:52am Nov 27, 2007 11:52am
GJ couldn't penetrate down the 38.2 retracemet line and therefore it is highly probable that the current uptrend will end up in 5 waves up to 225 area and then back down.

currently we are observing the 5th wave up to the target. I closed all shorts after bounce from 38.2 line which was 223.97 waiting for the uptrend to complete and enter short again.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,703
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:55am Nov 27, 2007 11:55am
Quoting arezab
I'm opened a short position in 224.72. seems it is going to fall down to at least 223.00 and then if I am lucky down to max 221.50.
Agreed on that. Price is still hanging around that projected fib line on the 4 hour chart. It just spiked up last night and now we are back to the normal rounds. I am still looking for price to drop quite a bit after this area of congestion. I am at school today and so I won't be able to post until later tonight.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,704
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:59am Nov 27, 2007 11:59am
Quoting arezab
Hi quecee5,

how do you see the down target of 221.50? is the possibility high in your opinion? I think it's probable though I'm not sure if it will be the final down point and the major reversal to 241 area should begin from there ...

what do you think?

thank you
221.60's is where I see it eventually going. . . It may have to touch 225/225.30 before heading south. In the meantime it may drift down to 224 and possibly 223.30's. . .
  • #51,705
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:13pm Nov 27, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting arezab
GJ couldn't penetrate down the 38.2 retracemet line and therefore it is highly probable that the current uptrend will end up in 5 waves up to 225 area and then back down.

currently we are observing the 5th wave up to the target. I closed all shorts after bounce from 38.2 line which was 223.97 waiting for the uptrend to complete and enter short again.
That's a very good call. . .
I thought we would complete it with a push up to 225.30 area but it didn't have enough momentum to get there. Maybe that's why it has since then pulled back to retry. . .

Also, the bounce off 223.97 which is hourly S1, tells me that it may attempt higher sooner than l8ter. . .

The only way I see it going higher is stocks would have to make new highs, UJ would have to take out the overnight highs 108.80/85 and GU has to go up. Otherwise, either it'll go down or just sit stuck. . .
  • #51,706
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:20pm Nov 27, 2007 12:20pm
Quoting quecee5
That's a very good call. . .
I thought we would complete it with a push up to 225.30 area but it didn't have enough momentum to get there. Maybe that's why it has since then pulled back to retry. . .

Also, the bounce off 223.97 which is hourly S1, tells me that it may attempt higher sooner than l8ter. . .

The only way I see it going higher is stocks would have to make new highs, UJ would have to take out the overnight highs 108.80/85 and GU has to go up. Otherwise, either it'll go down or just sit stuck. . .
Dow's up 1.85% to 12975 area. I don't think it'll get through the 13k psychological barrier and we may retrace like yesterday, hopefully taking GBPJPY with it. If DJIA does break this level then we may see new highs.
  • #51,707
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:22pm Nov 27, 2007 12:22pm
Just a note to all that are shorting. . .
If GJ gets above 225 there is a possibility it will run to 226 before heading back south.
  • #51,708
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:23pm Nov 27, 2007 12:23pm
I think most of the finance-stock driven equity gains have been short covering. Don't expect much more. Interesting that give JPY's high correlation with banking stocks that there hasn't been such a surge in the carry trade today
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #51,709
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:37pm Nov 27, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting quecee5
PC, it may take a run up to 225.30 before finally heading south. I think there are some stops up there. I'm prepared to add to my short if decides to go up there. . .
Yup. My long TP was hit. Now I'll be looking to go short . . .
  • #51,710
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:38pm Nov 27, 2007 12:38pm
NEW UPDATE GJ H4

http://i76.photobucket.com/albums/j1.../GJh428nov.jpg

GOOD LUCK
Debtfreedom
  • #51,711
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:44pm Nov 27, 2007 12:44pm
i do not want to see 226 at all
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,712
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:45pm Nov 27, 2007 12:45pm
Sorry Bro 4 replying so late, etisalat server was down & when it came online, could not log in 2 ForexFactory.

On the Daily GJ chart, taking high 232.4, low 221.27, fib levels r

61.8 @ 228.15 Not Completed

50.0 @ 226.84 Not Completed

38.2 @ 225.52 Completed Today

23.6 @ 223.90 Completed twice

On the 4hr charts, taking hi 238.30, lo 221.27, fib levels r

61.8 @ 225.61 completed

50.0 @ 224.79 completed

38.2 @ 223.96 completed

23.6 @ 222.93 completed

Note the confluence @ 225.50 area on the daily & 4hr. Imho GJ will target 220.ish area b4 attempting 61.8 or 50.0 fib on daily. This is my short term view which can be negated if SL @ 226.00 is hit. In the unlikely scenario of this happening, I will be back 2 re-analysing the charts. I have taken a heavy dose of yer Patience Pills, hoping it pays. I mostly scalp intraday using Aus 15min strategy...

Even as I type this, 225.00 has been broken...Patience....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily gj.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr gj.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #51,713
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:45pm Nov 27, 2007 12:45pm
I think the 5th wave (15m) is complete. I'm short at 224.90 heading down to at least 61.8% fib which sits at 223.40 area.

If we see a sharp bounce around 61.8, we may see an uptrend up to 226 or higher sooner than expected but according to my indicators it is highly probable for GJ to fall down to below 221 area before any higher.

good luck with good pips for everybody.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,714
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:48pm Nov 27, 2007 12:48pm
AJspeed,

I don't have the required number of posts (15) to send you a PM. I'm more of a lurker around these forums. Trading live, now over 80% in my 4th week. I would appreciate it if you could PM me with a link to your website, as i'm always looking to learn. Sorry for posting this on the main thread.

Thanks,
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #51,715
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:55pm Nov 27, 2007 12:55pm
are those patience pills available over the counter?
  • #51,716
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:57pm Nov 27, 2007 12:57pm
macd(3,9,1) bearish divergence on 30tf and below
  • #51,717
  • Nov 27, 2007 12:57pm Nov 27, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting Trumpcard
are those patience pills available over the counter?
No, but I do know a guy who can get hold of them.

AJ what are you playing at? Go and sell your spam sandwiches somewhere else.
  • #51,718
  • Nov 27, 2007 1:03pm Nov 27, 2007 1:03pm
Quoting MMDealer
AJspeed,

I don't have the required number of posts (15) to send you a PM. I'm more of a lurker around these forums. Trading live, now over 80% in my 4th week. I would appreciate it if you could PM me with a link to your website, as i'm always looking to learn. Sorry for posting this on the main thread.

Thanks,
dear AJspeed

I thank you for your favor but I'm also new to this tread and I believe I'm not in that level to teach something to anybody, just posting here because I'm interested in discussing about this pair and analyzing it because I trade only this pair and I need a full time focus on it. Also I'm learning from other experienced guys like Mike, zoran and others. Additionally I don't have any website.

I think you may refer to them instead of me which could be more useful.

thank you
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,719
  • Nov 27, 2007 1:06pm Nov 27, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting Trumpcard
are those patience pills available over the counter?
Overcome ur 2 worst enemies Fear & Greed, Patience will Pop up with time
  • #51,720
  • Nov 27, 2007 1:18pm Nov 27, 2007 1:18pm
Dollar Yen looking heavy on the 1hr - Pin bar at level of resistance, I think we'll see it back the figure at least today. Cable also looking to drift lower over the next 4 - 8 hours. Ive TP on long @ 90 and short @ 70.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
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