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Thai Baht discussion

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:53pm Jan 1, 2007 3:12pm | Edited 4:53pm
I'm not sure how many of the traders here at FF are interested in the Thai Baht, but for those who are, I hope this thread will be useful.

The big picture: You may all be aware of the things that happened in
Thailand at the end of the year with the central bank's exaggerated measures to stop speculation on the Baht. They took a decision on Monday, after the markets closed. After seeing the effects on Tuesday, they started thinking about the decision they already made. Confidence in Thai economy fell. They say they will review the measures taken in mid-January 2007. Long story short this is, if you want more details you can search it on Google news, or read this for example http://nationmultimedia.com/2006/12/...s_30022396.php

Current situation: I'm curious how will the Baht be affected by the bombings that took place in Bangkok on the new year's eve.

Quote
Analysts See Blasts Hurting Thai Economy
BANGKOK, Thailand — The terrorist bombings in Bangkok that rang in the New Year dealt a fresh blow to investors' confidence in the Thai economy, already shaken by a year of political turmoil and inept efforts to control the value of the baht, analysts said Monday.

A long holiday weekend provided a short cooling-off period after the Sunday night bombings killed three and injured 38, but weakness in currency and capital markets is expected when trading resumes.

read the rest of the story

The 35 Baht for 1 USD price is a very strong psychological resistance line.
Here are two charts attached, one for the last 10 years and one for the last 6 months.

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/5...10yearspg8.gif

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/7...6monthsip3.gif

You can see the price bouncing off the 35 line.

What do you think about the situation in Thailand? How will USD/THB be affected? Thoughts, ideas or even more questions are highly appreciated.
  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2007 5:41pm Jan 1, 2007 5:41pm
Quote: "What do you think about the situation in Thailand? How will USD/THB be affected? Thoughts, ideas or even more questions are highly appreciated."This is just a personal opinion imho. You can get your own from this link.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...250155/1/.html

As long as the blame shifting stops and you see a capable leader assigning the finance task to a suitable candidate, i believe their economy will be on track. (Be it pre-coup or post... candidate that is)

Fundamentally, the 35 support would become a strong resistance in no time.

Good thread to start for asia side.
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #3
  • Jan 1, 2007 5:56pm Jan 1, 2007 5:56pm
Thanks for your input first of all, I can see you're from Singapore and perhaps you can vew the things happening there more clearly than us.

Quoting barakah
As long as the blame shifting stops and you see a capable leader assigning the finance task to a suitable candidate, i believe their economy will be on track. (Be it pre-coup or post... candidate that is)
So you're saying someone there should be changed. Finance minister, BoT governor, maybe both?

I strongly believe their economy is going well. They just have to reach an equilibrium point for the Baht. It's like a revolving door: economy goes well, investments are being made, big money flows into the country, baht rises, exports are hurt. And exports are very important to their economy.

Quoting barakah
Fundamentally, the 35 support would become a strong resistance in no time.
That's what I think too, but I can't ignore the fact that investors may be scared. I must take into consideration all the events that happened lately. Would you put your money in stocks in a country were they just had a coup, with tanks going on the capital's streets, where they can't really make good financial decisions, where bombings happen?

Quoting barakah
Good thread to start for asia side.
Hope it will be useful for people trading the baht. More ideas are always better than one.
  • #4
  • Jan 1, 2007 6:35pm Jan 1, 2007 6:35pm
It's very interesting to watch what is going on in Thailand as their country is being taken over by Islamic radicals. Before you know it, the King will lose his head and muslim controlled army will declare Thailand an islamic state and it will be too late for the people to do anything. At least thailand will be cleaned and no more perverts from america visiting thailand for cheap sex.

What all that will do for the Thai baht? Who knows ... perhaps another collapse and a recession starting in Asia again. Why? Because who wants to visit Thailand if they will return home with no head?
  • #5
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:09pm Jan 1, 2007 8:09pm
I think you're going too far saying "another collapse and a recession starting in Asia again".

Here's an article about what tourists think:

"Bombs can't kill Bangkok's charms, visitors say" - http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...00628a&k=93131
  • #6
  • Mar 9, 2015 10:18pm Mar 9, 2015 10:18pm
Bullish divergence on the daily. First target level 32.77, Second target level 33.05.
Stop Loss 32.44
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTHB.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #7
  • Last Post: Mar 11, 2015 2:32am Mar 11, 2015 2:32am
Quoting BubaYaga
Bullish divergence on the daily. First target level 32.77, Second target level 33.05. Stop Loss 32.44 {image}
Bank of Thailand cuts rate to 1.75% from 2.00%

first tp hit - half position
move sl to BE for rest
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