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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,621
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:54pm Nov 26, 2007 9:54pm
Err...I don't mean to start a conspiracy theory here...but is it possible that the BOJ has somehow stepped in to weaken the Yen? Everyone was targeting 105 a their squeal point, but maybe they fired a warning shot across the bow in the 107-108 range. This will be hard to prove or disprove as central banks don't advertise interviention. It's hard to see this kind of move in 1hr just based on the news.
  • #51,622
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:55pm Nov 26, 2007 9:55pm
we will probably range until europe opens
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,623
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:58pm Nov 26, 2007 9:58pm
Quoting mike w
Wow, that was a big hit. Anyways, if you'll all excuse me as I go on my killing spree now. Jk. I am taking a step back now and reevaluating the situation. I will post as I see anything tradable.
Quite a day, even for G/J! I see price stalling out around the 1hr 200sma / 4hr 50sma (225.20). Then roughly a 50% retrace downhill. But obviously I could be wrong . . .

  • #51,624
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:00pm Nov 26, 2007 10:00pm
Today 10:01pm Risk appetite recovers after news that Citi will receive a $7.5B cash infusion: S&P futures rally, JPY weakens, Australia's benchmark ASX index rebounds from session lows, gold and oil recover

ya, its the infusion. dang it, didn't even see the whole move until just a few minutes ago. gbp/jpy was on the trendline though. you can say this was a bounce
  • #51,625
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:02pm Nov 26, 2007 10:02pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Err...I don't mean to start a conspiracy theory here...but is it possible that the BOJ has somehow stepped in to weaken the Yen? Everyone was targeting 105 a their squeal point, but maybe they fired a warning shot across the bow in the 107-108 range. This will be hard to prove or disprove as central banks don't advertise interviention. It's hard to see this kind of move in 1hr just based on the news.
Actually, the Central bank of New Zealand did advertise its intervention on behalf of the kiwi some months ago ..br
  • #51,626
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:05pm Nov 26, 2007 10:05pm
i ve been noticing , a sudden move of 200 pips in gj happens twice - thrice monthly (very similar price action , sudden n almost no retracement) , makes me think if banks n big players have set of dates n times where all of them buy or sell together ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #51,627
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:09pm Nov 26, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting Kayoubi
Today 10:01pm Risk appetite recovers after news that Citi will receive a $7.5B cash infusion: S&P futures rally, JPY weakens, Australia's benchmark ASX index rebounds from session lows, gold and oil recover

ya, its the infusion. dang it, didn't even see the whole move until just a few minutes ago. gbp/jpy was on the trendline though. you can say this was a bounce
Agreed. I caught that on "Trade the news" a few minutes ago, also, when I was looking for an explanation.

  • #51,628
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:11pm Nov 26, 2007 10:11pm
yes, Japan warned investors 2 weeks ago that the yen was "to strong" and that investors might "get burned" counting on continuing yen strength. They usually don't advertise the exact moment or form of the intervention though, and they usually will not confirm their intervention for a while after it happens. I don't know if BOJ had anything to do with this, but they have threatened to. If you are new to forex please be careful. I lost a lot of money a couple of years ago jumping on the bandwagon trying to 'break the bank'. Taking on Central Banks is best left to the Hedge Funds.
  • #51,629
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:13pm Nov 26, 2007 10:13pm
Well, intervention or no intervention,

Technically,
GJ just made a 38.2 retrace to 225.45 from 232 on nov 13th( 232.47--> 221.3)


http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/6...retraceln8.jpg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 38.2 retrace.JPG Size: 133 KB
  • #51,630
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:18pm Nov 26, 2007 10:18pm
Reason for todays move was a new japanese hedge fund buying USD
Mono
  • #51,631
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:18pm Nov 26, 2007 10:18pm
Assuming price fails to breach the 1hr 200sma, and there is a retrace, the most likely area of support will be around 223.75. Here we have the confluence of a 50% retrace from the upswing, and the 1hr 100sma.
Attached Image
  • #51,632
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:23pm Nov 26, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting mono
Reason for todays move was a new japanese hedge fund buying USD
Hold up, where did you get that unspecific info from?
  • #51,633
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:26pm Nov 26, 2007 10:26pm
There is weekly pivot @ 224.34 from which it just bounced off on the 5 minute chart.
  • #51,634
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:27pm Nov 26, 2007 10:27pm
The news regarding Citi bank came out at the same time too, wonder if that caused the spike.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1196...googlenews_wsj
  • #51,635
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:30pm Nov 26, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting birdt
Hold up, where did you get that unspecific info from?
I subscribe to tradethenews and they were warning that a new hedge fund was starting up today and look to buy USD. They pre warned everyone prior to jap open
Mono
  • #51,636
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:37pm Nov 26, 2007 10:37pm
Here's the item im refering to. They kept talking about it via their audio feed.

- Traders said that a large Japanese investment trust launch today is supporting JPY crosses.
Mono
  • #51,637
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:41pm Nov 26, 2007 10:41pm
harmonic pattern on 1 hr GJ
  • #51,638
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:44pm Nov 26, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting mono
I subscribe to tradethenews and they were warning that a new hedge fund was starting up today and look to buy USD. They pre warned everyone prior to jap open
Interesting, but I can't find any specific info on it. Of course the major financial institutions who really move the markets have got much better lines of communication and information than we lowly traders have. It's probably a combination of factors.

It's all good though, the higher it goes the further it has to come down when the penny finally drops that a few deals for a couple of billion here and there are just a drop in the ocean compared to the reality of the credit fiasco. When you look into the Citi deal further, it actually reveals the levels of desperation that one of the worlds largest banks has had to commit to, to preserve the illusion that they're OK.
  • #51,639
  • Edited 10:51pm Nov 26, 2007 10:50pm | Edited 10:51pm
Quoting birdt
Interesting, but I can't find any specific info on it. Of course the major financial institutions who really move the markets have got much better lines of communication and information than we lowly traders have. It's probably a combination of factors.

It's all good though, the higher it goes the further it has to come down when the penny finally drops that a few deals for a couple of billion here and there are just a drop in the ocean compared to the reality of the credit fiasco. When you look into the Citi deal further, it actually reveals the levels of desperation that one of the worlds largest banks has had to commit to, to preserve the illusion that they're OK.
Oh yes, more credit crunch to come, as they get more desperate. They hide their losses by selling them off to a hedge fund, produce there quartly report then buy it back again hoping this will go away.
Mono
  • #51,640
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:55pm Nov 26, 2007 10:55pm
when the fanfare wears off we might see risk aversion blow through the roof again.

I got a question though. How is the citi bail out a positive factor for the carry or the stock markets? citi got some money, why would the markets go up? are the abu dabhi gonna buy 7.5 bln usd or is the UAE country holding onto yen and have to sell it off or the likes?

and the japanese hedge fund as well. how will that affect the markets?
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