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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,561
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:28pm Nov 26, 2007 6:28pm
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,
  • #51,562
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:29pm Nov 26, 2007 6:29pm
Quoting gene22
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,
cant wait
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,563
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:32pm Nov 26, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting moneymagnet
cant wait
Agreed, Thanks Gene.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,564
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:36pm Nov 26, 2007 6:36pm
Quoting gene22
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,
Ditto, can't wait. . .
  • #51,565
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:36pm Nov 26, 2007 6:36pm
Quoting gene22
I haven't posted here in a while, it is unfortunate but this great thread went to ....
Here is a word of advice, trade what you see not what you think, you are not at a stage where you can predict where the price will be at a given time. THE CARRY IS GONE, in conventional sense of the word anyway, UK will cut rates, at least 3 times untill the end of 2008, can these levels be sustainable if they do? And trust me they will, they have a problem with inflation but they are about to be faced with a much bigger problem with their economy, look at ju we will see 101.90 it's a given, there will be a consolidation faze where the carry will recover somewhat only to fall again, the dow is in a spiral, look at the monthly, yearly we have a pin forming, that's a very significant sign. Unless a miracle happens(it might, but unlikely) and we finish off the year with a christmas rally of 1000 points surge on the dow, we are in a BEAR trend
Trade with the trend not against it, don't pick tops bottoms, AUS had provided a very reliable strategy, no need to guess just combine it with some of your own stuff and that's it.
Anyhow, hope this sober view helps
I agree it looks down for the forseable future for G/J. I believe there could still be a rally to the 242-244 area before the big drop...to 210 and below. However, not all carry trades are doomed. I see the A/J still as a viable long term winner---the BOJ is not raising rates anytime soon. As for the 2+ years time horizion, it is just pure speculation. The spread between rates for GB and Japan could be anything by then. The carry trade in general my change the way it looks, but as long as there are intrest differentials between currencies and 100:1 leverage, someone will be intrested in them.
  • #51,566
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:37pm Nov 26, 2007 6:37pm
Quoting gene22
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,

Looking forward to it.
  • #51,567
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:37pm Nov 26, 2007 6:37pm
Quoting gene22
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,
gene,

do you know what you will call it?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,568
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:53pm Nov 26, 2007 6:53pm
Originally Posted by gene22 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Will start a new thread of a few things that I look at tomorrow, long, medium, short term. We'll see how it goes,
cant wait

Sounds good, I'll be there!

Mike W.
Hey Mike. Wanted to say hi, and thanks for the PM. I will write back soon If that is ok. I have been really busy w/ a lot of personal things, but trying to get back to the trading. Good luck trading to all!
  • #51,569
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:55pm Nov 26, 2007 6:55pm
This is a fun little range we are in of about 50 to 60 pips now. I think we will break to the downside soon.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,570
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:57pm Nov 26, 2007 6:57pm
Quoting fxstman

Mike W.
Hey Mike. Wanted to say hi, and thanks for the PM. I will write back soon If that is ok. I have been really busy w/ a lot of personal things, but trying to get back to the trading. Good luck trading to all!
Sure thing, I can't wait to hear from you!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,571
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:05pm Nov 26, 2007 7:05pm
big sell off at the end again for the dow making a new low.. i wasn't expecting that
  • #51,572
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:13pm Nov 26, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting moneymagnet
i am actually looking for a retrace up to 222.94 223.20 area and i will short there if the situation is right. both are fibo areas of this last move down but we shall see
i will scale some shorts in soon.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,573
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:15pm Nov 26, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting quecee5
GJ has tested 222.50's which was 4hr S3 now is resistance. If it makes back above I see 222.79 and retesting new daily pivot of 223.04 on perhaps a short squeeze before heading back down. I'm doubtful it will go any higher before going down as we couldn't get over 225 on the last run up. . .

Just my take on where price might be headed - JMHO I too could be very wrong on this but I guess we'll all see within a few hours. . .
Still agreed with you. I love it when others' analysis go along with my own. Let's see if we get a close as we have now breached it, but that means nothing without the close above it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,574
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:23pm Nov 26, 2007 7:23pm
dreadful start for the nikkei.. will the others follow tommorow i wonder..
  • #51,575
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:24pm Nov 26, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting mike w
Still agreed with you. I love it when others' analysis go along with my own. Let's see if we get a close as we have now breached it, but that means nothing without the close above it.
Yeah, it looks like the typical short squeeze to me. I'm watching to see how long it last. It's amazing Nikkei down -262.32 but carry trade up. . .

Aus patience pills required here. . . ROTFLAMO!
  • #51,576
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:29pm Nov 26, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting quecee5
Yeah, it looks like the typical short squeeze to me. I'm watching to see how long it last. It's amazing Nikkei down -262.32 but carry trade up. . .

Aus patience pills required here. . . ROTFLAMO!
May be because of this news:

00:50 NEWS: BoJ Gov Fukui - Conducting Policy Eyeing Manifold Risks Tokyo, November 27. Over DowJones. Mr Fukui is speaking at the Europlace Financial Forum being held in Tokyo today. He adds that it is the BoJ"s job to cope preemptively with various risks and that market players need to assess risks appropriately. Currently, a voluntary unwinding of these risks looks to be taking place. He notes the impact of retail investors on FX trading, especially in yen carry trades. He also notes that subprime woes are affecting Japanese financial institutions as well. [email protected]
  • #51,577
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:39pm Nov 26, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting bluerose
May be because of this news:

00:50 NEWS: BoJ Gov Fukui - Conducting Policy Eyeing Manifold Risks Tokyo, November 27. Over DowJones. Mr Fukui is speaking at the Europlace Financial Forum being held in Tokyo today. He adds that it is the BoJ"s job to cope preemptively with various risks and that market players need to assess risks appropriately. Currently, a voluntary unwinding of these risks looks to be taking place. He notes the impact of retail investors on FX trading, especially in yen carry trades. He also notes that subprime woes are affecting Japanese financial institutions as well. [email protected]
Yeah, market very jittery right now. But I still see no fundamental reason why GJ should be going up at this point.

Now back to business - 221.30 here we come. . .
  • #51,578
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:00pm Nov 26, 2007 8:00pm
any one short here?
  • #51,579
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:05pm Nov 26, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting Srikanth
any one short here?
Yep. . .
Short @ 222.90 waiting for the next down move.
  • #51,580
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:08pm Nov 26, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting quecee5
Yeah, market very jittery right now. But I still see no fundamental reason why GJ should be going up at this point.

Now back to business - 221.30 here we come. . .
My interpretation from Fukui's statement is that BoJ could take preemptive measures to make the yen weaker (a strong yen is not good for the Japanese economy and when traders keep shorting the yen, the yen gets stronger). That would send the shortees to run for cover...
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