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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,501
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm
dang it! just wouldn't give me the bounce i was looking for! wanted in on this short
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #51,502
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm
Quoting quecee5
Not anymore. . .
Where do you expect bounce Quecee?
Work smart not hard
  • #51,503
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm Nov 26, 2007 3:02pm
Pop!
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #51,504
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:05pm Nov 26, 2007 3:05pm
Ok how low are we going on this before Tokyo open? I sure would get on the boat to buy the dips
  • #51,505
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:05pm Nov 26, 2007 3:05pm
160 pips for the first day back is sweet, going to bed goodnight
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,506
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:06pm Nov 26, 2007 3:06pm
G/J may go down more ..careful guyz..we can go for a long at tokyo open!
  • #51,507
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:06pm Nov 26, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting quecee5
Not anymore. . .
Yep, that's that and now we are in heavy profit. Today's close is almost a guarantee now to bring more downwards momentum tomorrow, and with that I think that we could realistically see, after breaking the support area of 221.40, 220.00. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. I hope everyone made money on that movement!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,508
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:07pm Nov 26, 2007 3:07pm
I'm looking to add to my positions on a retracement to the 222.50 area IF it comes about. If not, I will add at the daily close.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,509
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm
after long wait today, it started the downward at last. The price is definitely going to touch at least 221.48 (1st support) and then up to 220.50 area.

I'm going to open buy positions when I see a bounce over one of these lines.
I think with this powerful downward movement of UJ, we will have more down movement, but for now, 220.50 is the maximum.

the second downward movement can build a bullish butterfly or bullish crab but I'm not sure where the D point will be. After bounce from 221.48 we will see an up movement up to res 3 (224.07) and from there the second leg of bullish crab or butterfly will be created. I believe if a long leg bullish crab is created, it will be the end of the downtrend and from there the major uptrend up to 241 and 243 will be started.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,510
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting mike w
I'm looking to add to my positions on a retracement to the 222.50 area.
yep, that cud be the nice entry!
  • #51,511
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:09pm Nov 26, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting sony
Where do you expect bounce Quecee?
We are headed toward daily S1 of 221.48 once GU starts to come down. Don't think we will get much of a bounce. What you are seeing is what u get right now. It may try to get back to 4hr S3 @ 222.42 but it may have a hard time getting there. . .
  • #51,512
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:17pm Nov 26, 2007 3:17pm
Quoting arezab
after long wait today, it started the downward at last. The price is definitely going to touch at least 221.48 (1st support) and then up to 220.50 area.

I'm going to open buy positions when I see a bounce over one of these lines.
I think with this powerful downward movement of UJ, we will have more down movement, but for now, 220.50 is the maximum.

the second downward movement can build a bullish butterfly or bullish crab but I'm not sure where the D point will be. After bounce from 221.48 we will see an up movement up to res 3 (224.07) and from there the second leg of bullish crab or butterfly will be created. I believe if a long leg bullish crab is created, it will be the end of the downtrend and from there the major uptrend up to 241 and 243 will be started.
Hi Arezab, I agree with you that we will probably see a large bounce at the area of 221.40-50. My question now is why you think we will see the bounce up to the area of 224.07? I agree that, at the moment, that is a firm area of resistance, but in the near future I couldn't see it making that large of a comeback.

Also, at the beginning of your post you stated that it would touch 221.48 and then UP to the 220.50 area. Did you mean a different price, or was 220.50 correct?
Thanks for the input Arezab!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,513
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:18pm Nov 26, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting arezab
after long wait today, it started the downward at last. The price is definitely going to touch at least 221.48 (1st support) and then up to 220.50 area.

I'm going to open buy positions when I see a bounce over one of these lines.
I think with this powerful downward movement of UJ, we will have more down movement, but for now, 220.50 is the maximum.

the second downward movement can build a bullish butterfly or bullish crab but I'm not sure where the D point will be. After bounce from 221.48 we will see an up movement up to res 3 (224.07) and from there the second leg of bullish crab or butterfly will be created. I believe if a long leg bullish crab is created, it will be the end of the downtrend and from there the major uptrend up to 241 and 243 will be started.
I see the 4hr descending wedge all the way down to 219.60/70 area. Do you think there is a possibility that is may go that far before bouncing back up????
  • #51,514
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:19pm Nov 26, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting quecee5
We are headed toward daily S1 of 221.48 once GU starts to come down. Don't think we will get much of a bounce. What you are seeing is what u get right now. It may try to get back to 4hr S3 @ 222.42 but it may have a hard time getting there. . .
I agree with you Quecee. There is too much downward force now to reach much of a higher level than that off of a bounce, IF we even get one. If we do, however, I look to add shorts at that level.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,515
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:22pm Nov 26, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting quecee5
I see the 4hr descending wedge all the way down to 219.60/70 area. Do you think there is a possibility that is may go that far before bouncing back up????
I think there is a chance that we will move back to the area that you previously mentioned- 222.40-50. After that, we could see these lows within tonight's or tomorrow's trading. My personal target is 219 in the coming days, coupled with a few at 217. I'll deal with what I get however.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,516
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:26pm Nov 26, 2007 3:26pm
Quoting mike w
I agree with you Quecee. There is too much downward force now to reach much of a higher level than that off of a bounce, IF we even get one. If we do, however, I look to add shorts at that level.
Yep, we're headed toward 221.48, the question I have is, is there a possibility that we may head toward the end of the descending wedge (overshoot) if we get enough downward momentum and hit 219.60/70 and then bounce back up. . .

If you take a look at the 5 EMA (I actually use Linear Regression Indicator) weekly chart its at 220.30 so it could overshoot and bounce hard from 219.60/70 area just like it did in Aug 07
  • #51,517
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:29pm Nov 26, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting quecee5
Yep, we're headed toward 221.48, the question I have is, is there a possibility that we may head toward the end of the descending wedge (overshoot) if we get enough downward momentum and hit 219.60/70 and then bounce back up. . .

If you take a look at the 5 EMA (I actually use Linear Regression Indicator) weekly chart its at 220.30 so it could overshoot and bounce gard from 219.60/70 area just like it did in Aug 07
Is anybody afraid of this news at 6-50pm....BOJ ?
Work smart not hard
  • #51,518
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:29pm Nov 26, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting mike w
Hi Arezab, I agree with you that we will probably see a large bounce at the area of 221.40-50. My question now is why you think we will see the bounce up to the area of 224.07? I agree that, at the moment, that is a firm area of resistance, but in the near future I couldn't see it making that large of a comeback.

Also, at the beginning of your post you stated that it would touch 221.48 and then UP to the 220.50 area. Did you mean a different price, or was 220.50 correct?
Thanks for the input Arezab!
Hi Mike!,

when I said 224.07, I see it because if the price bounces from 221.48 area, the 224.07 will be around 76.4 fib retracement of today's 224.80 top. That will probably build the start of the second downward movement of the butterfly or crab. And when I said the downtrend will reach to 220.50 area, the maximum point for the second downtrend or the final D point for the butterfly or crab was meant.

I thank you for your attention and if you see any flaw or mistake in my opinion, please tell me, I'll be grateful.

thanks
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,519
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:39pm Nov 26, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting sony
Is anybody afraid of this news at 6-50pm....BOJ ?
No, I closed my position @ 221.98 from 224.05. . .
I'm currently on the sidelines waiting to see what price does from here.

If GJ moves down to 221.48 and bounce I'll start building a long position. . .
If GJ moves below 221.48 I strategically scale in longs all the way down. . .

If price continues to go up to 222.84 I may consider taking a small short and ride it down otherwise I'm flat until I see what price does @ 221.48. . .
  • #51,520
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:44pm Nov 26, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting arezab
Hi Mike!,

when I said 224.07, I see it because if the price bounces from 221.48 area, the 224.07 will be around 76.4 fib retracement of today's 224.80 top. That will probably build the start of the second downward movement of the butterfly or crab. And when I said the downtrend will reach to 220.50 area, the maximum point for the second downtrend or the final D point for the butterfly or crab was meant.

I thank you for your attention and if you see any flaw or mistake in my opinion, please tell me, I'll be grateful.

thanks
Thank you once again Arezab! I'm posting a few charts now with possibilities.
Based on my 1 hour chart, I believe the Tunnel area, which is indicated by the 2 red EMA's on the chart would hold as the top. Although, if they were to break I do see your target of 224 being a possibility. I see it as possible, but improbable. As time progresses and price stays further down, the tunnel area will move down along with it (this is what creates the dynamic fib line method that I am using), thus creating a lower area of resistance and therefore making it all the harder for that area to be reached.

As for your target of 220.50, I think it is a good target but maybe a little modest. It's most likely sure to be hit however and create a gain for you.

I've just added to my position again at 222.44
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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I dream, therefore I become.
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