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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,481
  • Edited 12:44pm Nov 26, 2007 12:26pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
It's interesting how even though our methods differ, we tend to come to the same conclusions about price movement. Even some areas of support and resistance. You monitor GU and UJ like I do. And you seem to have a very pivot oriented approach, which I might be starting to catch on to . . .
PC,

Yes, we seem to always be on the same page with our analysis. . .
I follow your analysis and many other senior members on this thread such as Karmo, Aus, Zoran, Gene22 M2B and others and really have learned a great deal from all of you. . .

I mostly use monthly, weekly, daily and 4hr charts to guide me where price is going. . . Once I establish that then I monitor lower time frames and use 1hr, 4hr and daily pivots method for a good place to enter/exit.

If going long I wait for a retrace to lower price, if going short I wait for prices to hit R1, R2 and somethime R3 for entry. . .

Now, UJ and GU tells me potentially how far we could go up or down depending on how weak or strong each are. . .

If UJ and GU are weak GJ could hit lower resistance levels if going short and vise versa if going long

If UJ and GU are going in opposite directions then GJ is limited to the downside and may bounce off a 1hr/4hr S or R level oppose to a major daily level like today.

I use the below to monitor pivot points throughout the day. It also gives you a visual where price has been and could be headed. What I've notice is that it always comes back to these levels shown no matter how strong the momentum.

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_ana..._200603215764/
  • #51,482
  • Edited 12:54pm Nov 26, 2007 12:36pm | Edited 12:54pm
I wake up to see that we are still hovering right below that area of resistance on the 4 hour chart. It'll break down soon, I think. Analysis is the same as it was 10 hours ago.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,483
  • Nov 26, 2007 12:53pm Nov 26, 2007 12:53pm
I still believe the Gbp/Jpy will come down further throughout tonight's trading. It will be fueled by the daily bar's bearish close and then tomorrow will be firmly bearish as well. Just my thought on the subject.

What are everyone's reasons for thinking it will move upwards? I am just taking this into hand so as to understand more viewpoints than my own.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,484
  • Nov 26, 2007 12:54pm Nov 26, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting mike w
I wake up to see that we are still hoevering right below that area of resistance on the 4 hour chart. It'll break down soon, I think. Analysis is the same as it was 10 hours ago.
Once UJ breaks its daily pivot support we should see a limited move downward. We won't see a significant move down until GU breaks down lower. Until then GJ will be somewhat limited. . .

UJ going down, while GU continues to go up, result GJ limited to its downward move. . . I see 223.40 next target. . .
  • #51,485
  • Nov 26, 2007 12:58pm Nov 26, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting quecee5
Once UJ breaks its daily pivot support we should see a limited move downward. We won't see a significant move down until GU breaks down lower. Until then GJ will be somewhat limited. . .

UJ going down, while GU continues to go up, result GJ limited to its downward move. . . I see 223.40 next target. . .
I agree. I think tonight's session will bring about the force to make Usd/Jpy break it's support levels. Until then, we will have some boring trading. Thanks for the input Quecee.

The pound is close to the top of it's range based on the 4 hour charts. This will be good in that I think it will test and then drop again to the lows of around 2.0540.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,486
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:05pm Nov 26, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting mike w
I agree. I think tonight's session will bring about the force to make Usd/Jpy break it's support levels. Until then, we will have some boring trading. Thanks for the input Quecee.

The pound is close to the top of it's range based on the 4 hour charts. This will be good in that I think it will test and then drop again to the lows of around 2.0540.
Agreed!
  • #51,487
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:07pm Nov 26, 2007 1:07pm
Another thing to keep in mind is that on the daily bar, we have a double high on today's and yesterday's bars. I have a feeling price will move down juuuusssttt enough by then to form a double high lower close. Add that with the pin that could form and voila, instant downmove. lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,488
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:08pm Nov 26, 2007 1:08pm
Here's what I see, a bullish wedge but I don't think it's time yet for a break-out, possible test of the low's first.. I'm currently short btw

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/7281/gjkz5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,489
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:12pm Nov 26, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting mike w
I still believe the Gbp/Jpy will come down further throughout tonight's trading. It will be fueled by the daily bar's bearish close and then tomorrow will be firmly bearish as well. Just my thought on the subject.

What are everyone's reasons for thinking it will move upwards? I am just taking this into hand so as to understand more viewpoints than my own.
Hi Mike,

I have a couple shorts, and I'm keeping the SL just above today's high. Don't really expect much upward movement. Might get some good down action later today or early tomorrow, if the Dow doesn't interfere.

Still looking forward to your upcoming fib explanation post.
  • #51,490
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:14pm Nov 26, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser

Still looking forward to your upcoming fib explanation post.
I'll get there soon! I have been going crazy these past few days with finals coming up among other things. I'm going to start now on figuring out a good way to post it and have it make sense at all. I'm in the process of allocating all the resources that I am going to use and try to piece them together, along with my own knowledge.

By the way, I've moved my stoplosses down to just above that area as well- 225.00.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,491
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:20pm Nov 26, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting karmostaji
Here's what I see, a bullish wedge but I don't think it's time yet for a break-out, possible test of the low's first.. I'm currently short btw

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/7281/gjkz5.gif
Karmo,

I was studying the same time frame and was wondering about the lower wedge and notice that GJ could revisit the low end of that wedge and maybe resistance down there, 219.60's/220.50/70 before a significant moving up, especially since daily, weekly and monthly TF's are bearish. . .

I know Zoran alluded to maybe testing 220.50/70's which would make more since before making a move upward, then back down to new lows. . .

Your thoughts please. . .
  • #51,492
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:29pm Nov 26, 2007 1:29pm
my simpletons take, since I mainly trade long TF, is that 221ish or thereabouts has been good resistance 4 times in the last year. If this breaks there's a lot of downside, but I'm favouring the accumulation of long positions right now, especially if USDJPY falls further with the ever increasing prospect of BoJ intervention.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #51,493
  • Nov 26, 2007 1:31pm Nov 26, 2007 1:31pm
heres a token chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy.gif Size: 32 KB
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #51,494
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:14pm Nov 26, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting cgldsmth
my simpletons take, since I mainly trade long TF, is that 221ish or thereabouts has been good resistance 4 times in the last year. If this breaks there's a lot of downside, but I'm favouring the accumulation of long positions right now, especially if USDJPY falls further with the ever increasing prospect of BoJ intervention.
I think it could very easily break, but not hold below until another runup to gain force for the downmove. If you'll look at the last time it went at it, I do believe it moved down to the area of 219. Tiki Trader made a post in a thread a few days ago entailing that price could indeed reach 217, because that would be the closing factor of the head and shoulders that has formed. I could see this as being a feasible chance of direction and target. Either way, I am looking for the immediate future to hold more downwards movement. As I said earlier, I think today will close as a double high lower close along with the pin formation, which is coupled with the fact that it came off of resistance. This is going to be the creation of a good trade in my opinion. I am not too good at crystal balling and so I couldn't begin to tell you what will happen when we reach the area of support that you are talking about, but I would be ready to see a reversal present itself at that point- or any point for that matter.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,495
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:17pm Nov 26, 2007 2:17pm
I think we are beginning a downtrend on the hourly charts now. If I am correct, we would be in the second wave down and so I will sell from now on during any rises in price. Does anyone else think the same in regards to beginning the downtrend?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,496
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:20pm Nov 26, 2007 2:20pm
Once UJ stalls, and GU starts to go down, I expect more downward movement for GJ but we've got monthly S3 at 222.88 area
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,497
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:24pm Nov 26, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting karmostaji
Once UJ stalls, and GU starts to go down, I expect more downward movement for GJ but we've got monthly S3 at 222.88 area
Testing this area now. I look to see an initial bounce which would coincide with my thoughts that we are beginning a downtrend on the hourly charts and then I would look for price to break it on a second try.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #51,498
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:29pm Nov 26, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting karmostaji
Once UJ stalls, and GU starts to go down, I expect more downward movement for GJ but we've got monthly S3 at 222.88 area
also 4hr gann around that price.
btw i exit my short at 223.10 with +100 pips.
have a nice trade yall.
  • #51,499
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:00pm Nov 26, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting karmostaji
Once UJ stalls, and GU starts to go down, I expect more downward movement for GJ but we've got monthly S3 at 222.88 area
Not anymore. . .
  • #51,500
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:01pm Nov 26, 2007 3:01pm
The 251 battle for the best fortune teller is not on anymore?
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