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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,361
  • Nov 25, 2007 6:56pm Nov 25, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting quecee5
FX-Petra,

I saw the same thing but what's puzzling to me is it's sitting well above the daily pivot of 223.13. The only other thing keeping GJ from moving up that I can see is perhaps resistance @ the weekly pivot (224.33) which it surpassed on the way up then backed off.

Other than resiatance @ the weekly pivot I don't see anything standing in the way from GJ moving up to at least daily S1 @ 225.06 maybe 226.79 before a turn back the other way. . .

Feedback welcomed
I agree, we could go up to 225 (S1). I am prepared to short again @ 224.90. I have no idea when another drop to the 220 area will happen. I know that weekly momentum is down, and that patient shorts will likley be rewarded.
  • #51,362
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:00pm Nov 25, 2007 7:00pm
  •  DBE
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Pippin for a givin' | 45 Posts
Quoting auslanco
above the daily 5sma (close) 224.40.. look for a further rally upto 226 .
Aus, does the daily TF need to close above 224.40? If not, what TF does need to close above 224.40 to convince you that price is heading north in the short term?
thank you!
  • #51,363
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:01pm Nov 25, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting quecee5
FX-Petra,

I saw the same thing but what's puzzling to me is it's sitting well above the daily pivot of 223.13. The only other thing keeping GJ from moving up that I can see is perhaps resistance @ the weekly pivot (224.33) which it surpassed on the way up then backed off.

Other than resistance @ the weekly pivot I don't see anything standing in the way of GJ moving up to at least daily R1 @ 225.06 and maybe R2 @ 226.65 before a turn back the other way. . .

Feedback welcomed
except the gap and the pin bar!
  • #51,364
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:03pm Nov 25, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting quecee5
FX-Petra,

I saw the same thing but what's puzzling to me is it's sitting well above the daily pivot of 223.13. The only other thing keeping GJ from moving up that I can see is perhaps resistance @ the weekly pivot (224.33) which it surpassed on the way up then backed off.

Other than resistance @ the weekly pivot I don't see anything standing in the way of GJ moving up to at least daily R1 @ 225.06 and maybe R2 @ 226.65 before a turn back the other way. . .

Feedback welcomed
well there is also this... as you can see I've been building up shorts ever since the failed break of that resistance line of the bullish wedge... so looks to me like we'll be seeing 220-119 pretty soon before we see 230+
Attached Image
  • #51,365
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:11pm Nov 25, 2007 7:11pm
i expect we will close the gap before a move higher after that i have no clue
  • #51,366
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:11pm Nov 25, 2007 7:11pm
Quoting 59fender
except the gap and the pin bar!
Thxs,
Just saw the pin bar and the gap on the 30 min TF from 223.39-223.63. . .
  • #51,367
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:12pm Nov 25, 2007 7:12pm
chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: close he gap.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #51,368
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:16pm Nov 25, 2007 7:16pm
Quoting MoForce
well there is also this... as you can see I've been building up shorts ever since the failed break of that resistance line of the bullish wedge... so looks to me like we'll be seeing 220-119 pretty soon before we see 230+
Agreed, I saw it @ 225 1st then maybe 226.XX if the momentum was there. . . Then even re-testing 228.XX resistance before a major fall to 219 and below. . . but it would have to get above the falling 4H wedge before next resistance
  • #51,369
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:35pm Nov 25, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting 59fender
i expect we will close the gap before a move higher after that i have no clue
Well, I'm watching the global equity markets (Nikkie up +123) since the crosses tend to be positively correlated with it. That's why I'm skeptical about shorting right now. We could see the market take a breather from moving down since we've had 3 consecutive down weeks. . .

The market may decide to short squeeze higher before a significant move downward. However, I do agree with Aus. that the weekly and monthly look very bearish and we could see GJ all the way down to 203.xx or lower by the end of the year. . .
  • #51,370
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:37pm Nov 25, 2007 7:37pm
another possible pin on the thirty
  • #51,371
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:59pm Nov 25, 2007 7:59pm
with a lower high
  • #51,372
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:07pm Nov 25, 2007 8:07pm
224.30 nice place for a short
  • #51,373
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:14pm Nov 25, 2007 8:14pm
not good
  • #51,374
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:17pm Nov 25, 2007 8:17pm
Quoting 59fender
not good
Nikkie up +193. . .
  • #51,375
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:19pm Nov 25, 2007 8:19pm
Hi, here is a newbee "?", when Nikkei goes up,then USD/JPY & GBP/JPY goes up too, right? Why is that happen and where is material about that can be found? Thank you gentlemen...!
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #51,376
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:19pm Nov 25, 2007 8:19pm
G/J should be up a lot more than this with the Nikkei up 200+ at one point today.

Anyone know what the reason is for the sideways trading so far on most JPY pairs?
  • #51,377
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:22pm Nov 25, 2007 8:22pm
Could anybody explain why is this happening and where is the theory for that, or what to read? I'm starving for info! Reply - appreciated!
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #51,378
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:28pm Nov 25, 2007 8:28pm
The fixed Asian session daily pivot (which we use in Auslanco's strategies) is 233.41, according to my charts. Price is well above that. The 15min QQE60 is crossed bullish. The 30min, 1hr, and 4hr QQE5's are crossed bullish.

The Nikkei stock market is rallying. This is bad for the yen, and it's keeping G/J prices up. If price moves convincingly above the 1hr 100sma (@ ~ 224.51) I'll be long to around 226. If price eventually works it's way below the daily pivot instead, I'll be short to around 222.

  • #51,379
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:33pm Nov 25, 2007 8:33pm
Quoting koltri
Could anybody explain why is this happening and where is the theory for that, or what to read? I'm starving for info! Reply - appreciated!
My simple, non-professional explanation of the current situation is this:

Global equities in the green means people are willing to take on a higher risk and believe there is still reward in global growth. This usually means the carry trade is back on and people are selling JPY.

When the global equities are down (which means US futures are down), that means people are selling risk and investing in safe money. When that happens, people are buying JPY and the carry trade unwinds.

I'm sure someone else can give a better, more detailed explanation.
  • #51,380
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:36pm Nov 25, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
The fixed Asian session daily pivot (which we use in Auslanco's strategies) is 233.41, according to my charts. Price is well above that. The 15min QQE60 is crossed bullish. The 30min, 1hr, and 4hr QQE5's are crossed bullish.

The Nikkei stock market is rallying. This is bad for the yen, and it's keeping G/J prices up. If price moves convincingly above the 1hr 100sma (@ ~ 224.51) I'll be long to around 226. If price eventually works it's way below the daily pivot instead, I'll be short to around 222.

Pip_Cruiser, that's what I'm seeing as well. . .
Daily pivot is 223.13
4hr pivot is 223.96
1hr pivot is 224.04

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_ana..._200603215764/
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