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Perfect Head & Shoulder In GBPJPY_crash_again??

  • #41
  • Nov 12, 2007 12:37pm Nov 12, 2007 12:37pm
for uk --watch carefully, cable may take big hit along with euro/usd
I am expecting crash on this pair atleast 1000 pips down in 2 weeks
and euro 700 pips down. Link removed
  • #42
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:49pm Nov 12, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting forex100
for uk --watch carefully, cable may take big hit along with euro/usd
I am expecting crash on this pair atleast 1000 pips down in 2 weeks
and euro 700 pips down. Link removed

It could happen all currencies are one way or the other co-related...so if GJ goes down..the Eur and cable could also follow..
  • #43
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:16pm Nov 19, 2007 2:16pm
Update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 15 KB
Just Trade It
  • #44
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:21pm Nov 19, 2007 2:21pm
Dow Jones looking like losing 13k this week. Possibly today already...

If so, this H&S will be triggered. Target 210, no?
  • #45
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:26pm Nov 19, 2007 2:26pm
I would prefer a retest of the neckline, Thats a 95% profit maker. Either way I would love to see this pair drop like a rock and put down 1,000 pip days.
Could happen, it would require mass hysteria and fear, but it could happen
Just Trade It
  • #46
  • Nov 21, 2007 1:25am Nov 21, 2007 1:25am
My 700 point DOW and EUR/JPY targets have been met but price is still supported by the long term uptrend. while GBP/JPY has a head and shoulder EUR/JPY has an equally inviting double top formation. If the longterm uptrend on the DOW is broken and a crash follows, these chart patterns will play out, I project GBP/JPY to target 195 conservatively with 187 not out of the question. I think this will happen but another interest rate cut could put it off until next year . I would like to take a short now to make sure I catch the big move but that is gambling- there may not be a crash and todays price may be the lowest it ever reaches making a long the wiser option. I dont know what will happen. here are the DOW and guppy charts with my targets marked
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Spot.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #47
  • Nov 21, 2007 9:51am Nov 21, 2007 9:51am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
My 700 point DOW and EUR/JPY targets have been met but price is still supported by the long term uptrend. while GBP/JPY has a head and shoulder EUR/JPY has an equally inviting double top formation. If the longterm uptrend on the DOW is broken and a crash follows, these chart patterns will play out, I project GBP/JPY to target 195 conservatively with 187 not out of the question. I think this will happen but another interest rate cut could put it off until next year . I would like to take a short now to make sure I catch the big move but that is gambling- there may not be a crash and todays price may be the lowest it ever reaches making a long the wiser option. I dont know what will happen. here are the DOW and guppy charts with my targets marked
The charts all look like we should go down any moment..I was expecting it from past three weeks from the past data...however..

its JUST THE DAMM PPT and Japan gov. intervention..that had made it to test and retest and retest the neck line again and again and again..its just damm frustrating and testing patience to the limit...

hopefully...in the coming day it should fall big or damm not again go up and down up and down up and up and down...Man..im going crazy over this big fall
  • #48
  • Nov 22, 2007 7:05am Nov 22, 2007 7:05am
looks like a break to me. certainly getting a little close for comfort but looks like the PPT have pulled the plug as the buying volume should have been huge at the trendline support. Another 100 points lower and I reckon games on for sure. I have stop entry sell orders in place below the current levels on GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. I just hope it dosent bankrupt my broker and he can still afford to coff up
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  • #49
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:21am Nov 23, 2007 10:21am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
looks like a break to me. certainly getting a little close for comfort but looks like the PPT have pulled the plug as the buying volume should have been huge at the trendline support. Another 100 points lower and I reckon games on for sure. I have stop entry sell orders in place below the current levels on GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. I just hope it dosent bankrupt my broker and he can still afford to coff up
Guess Monday is the day now.....two days of holiday has taken steam out of trades..still GJ and EJ had some fall..hopefully it should continue the downfall
  • #50
  • Edited 7:55pm Nov 24, 2007 7:52pm | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting spiderforex
Guess Monday is the day now.....two days of holiday has taken steam out of trades..still GJ and EJ had some fall..hopefully it should continue the downfall
Dont hold your breath
I would expect a decent bounce from these levels which could be sustained through until next year on the usual christmas rally. we are waiting on the U.S consumer and they care very little about subprime crashes and wouldnt have the slightest clue about the carry trade correlation with equities or our head and shoulders pattern. What they do know is there house isnt worth as much and petrol costs them more. That should effect 4th quarter retail sales figures. If so, then the selling will start but that wont show up until next year. A panic sell before that remains a possibility if levels slide any further so be ready just in case. The possibility also exists that retail figures will be fine, housing recovers, subprime becomes a distant memory and todays level is the lowest it ever sees' again! That would make the people buying now the smart ones. Anything is possible. Believing you know what will happen and when usually results in a blown up account.

Edit: Note to self
Be carefull! what we have is a chart pattern that tells us that further losses are a higher probability and that scenario has some fundamental backing. The odds are with us so we take the trade with risked managed so as to preserve our equity. Equity preservation is the goal of this game. Be wrong and still live to trade another day
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  • #51
  • Nov 24, 2007 8:29pm Nov 24, 2007 8:29pm
test
  • #52
  • Nov 24, 2007 9:11pm Nov 24, 2007 9:11pm
Come again ...????

Quoting Keivan
test
  • #53
  • Nov 24, 2007 9:14pm Nov 24, 2007 9:14pm
I don't know.... life moving along here pretty much as normal... I am betting on 217.00 gbp/jpy fairly soon... maybe not tomorrow... but I have trades betting the H & S completes




Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Dont hold your breath
I would expect a decent bounce from these levels which could be sustained through until next year on the usual christmas rally. we are waiting on the U.S consumer and they care very little about subprime crashes and wouldnt have the slightest clue about the carry trade correlation with equities or our head and shoulders pattern. What they do know is there house isnt worth as much and petrol costs them more. That should effect 4th quarter retail sales figures. If so, then the selling will start but that wont show up until next year. A panic sell before that remains a possibility if levels slide any further so be ready just in case. The possibility also exists that retail figures will be fine, housing recovers, subprime becomes a distant memory and todays level is the lowest it ever sees' again! That would make the people buying now the smart ones. Anything is possible. Believing you know what will happen and when usually results in a blown up account.

Edit: Note to self
Be carefull! what we have is a chart pattern that tells us that further losses are a higher probability and that scenario has some fundamental backing. The odds are with us so we take the trade with risked managed so as to preserve our equity. Equity preservation is the goal of this game. Be wrong and still live to trade another day
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  • #54
  • Edited Nov 25, 2007 9:03am Nov 24, 2007 9:33pm | Edited Nov 25, 2007 9:03am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Dont hold your breath
I would expect a decent bounce from these levels which could be sustained through until next year on the usual christmas rally. we are waiting on the U.S consumer and they care very little about subprime crashes and wouldnt have the slightest clue about the carry trade correlation with equities or our head and shoulders pattern. What they do know is there house isnt worth as much and petrol costs them more. That should effect 4th quarter retail sales figures. If so, then the selling will start but that wont show up until next year. A panic sell before that remains a possibility if levels slide any further so be ready just in case. The possibility also exists that retail figures will be fine, housing recovers, subprime becomes a distant memory and todays level is the lowest it ever sees' again! That would make the people buying now the smart ones. Anything is possible. Believing you know what will happen and when usually results in a blown up account.

Edit: Note to self
Be carefull! what we have is a chart pattern that tells us that further losses are a higher probability and that scenario has some fundamental backing. The odds are with us so we take the trade with risked managed so as to preserve our equity. Equity preservation is the goal of this game. Be wrong and still live to trade another day
Yes we do have a chart pattern that tells us that the bottom is not nearly over yet, this doesn't mean that we will experience pullbacks to the long side, but overall we should have a continuation downward. Although the neighbors don't even know what the carry trade is, and they do know that their house is worth a little less, but still will no doubt blow their wad on Christmas all the same, this is still not enough to sway the "BIG MONEY"! Commercial and Non-Commercial money who's positions are reported on the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) website under the Commitment of traders (COT) for the USD/JPN is net short and sentiment from the past few weeks has been picking up steam in that direction. The GBP/USD is still net long overall, but like the UJ, the sentiment is starting to weaken. Last weeks result are still not out due to the US holiday, but I expect the same data from last week. The combination of these declining sentiments and the UJ in a net short position, strongly strengthens the position of a declining GBP/JPY. These are important numbers as a lot of currency has to change hands to change a net long or net short position. I am shorting mainly on the big money flow toward a trend downward, as well as a Head and Shoulders pattern, that is a pretty strong technical indication that usually follows through. This is long term trade and stops are huge as I do expect pullback to occur.

There is a great post in the "News" section of the FF by PFXGlobal called "Forecasting Breakouts". These guys also just released an online video on price patterns and have composed an amazing tool of graphing the COT report. (Admin. This is not a promotion just a good report and info about these guys' contribution to our news section.)

NP
  • #55
  • Nov 24, 2007 9:36pm Nov 24, 2007 9:36pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Quoting cesarnc
Dow Jones looking like losing 13k this week. Possibly today already...

If so, this H&S will be triggered. Target 210, no?
Looks like a slow correction to 213 by Feb next year.... but who really knows? Confirmation if price drops below 219.
  • #56
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:18am Dec 11, 2007 4:18am
Ive welcomed this rally as a sell opportunity and have taken my first short position. I am ready to take a second bite if the rally persist and the DOW tests the previous high. I see the rally and think, you greedy fools! but Ive been wrong before
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  • #57
  • Edited 3:03pm Dec 11, 2007 6:43am | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Ive welcomed this rally as a sell opportunity and have taken my first short position. I am ready to take a second bite if the rally persist and the DOW tests the previous high. I see the rally and think, you greedy fools! but Ive been wrong before
I'm fundamentally challenged, however, the way I see it, the rally priced in 25. If we get 25 there won't be much reaction either way.

But if we get 50, there will be another, much bigger rally.

Just the opinion of a greedy fool (who significantly beats the market year after year in mutual funds).

Edit: well, congrats on your trades, guys! I doubt I'll ever understand fundamentals.
  • #58
  • Dec 13, 2007 9:01am Dec 13, 2007 9:01am
PA of late tells me trading is over for the year, its ugly out there

Merry Christmas everyone. have a nice break, forget the market and go spend some quality time with friends and family. This thread is great with lots of input from cot data and fundamentals to ta and the word on the street. Its been a great year at FF for me. Ive learned alot from all of you so Ill see you all again next year.

p.s mayby leave a small short open position just in case. It looks a little head and shoulders on the DOW weekly chart now also
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  • #59
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:02pm Jan 7, 2008 11:02pm
Things seem to be going well lately for our head and shoulders pattern - but where is everybody? I hope your not all on holidays and missing the very thing we have forecasted months ago
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  • #60
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:25pm Jan 7, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Things seem to be going well lately for our head and shoulders pattern - but where is everybody? I hope your not all on holidays and missing the very thing we have forecasted months ago
The best entry was a sell stop on the break of the neckline (although it was difficult to get filled in that quick downdraft). In the short term, downward momentum has slowed considerably. I'd say we're overdue for a bear market rally, a rise up to test the neckline from below, then head back down again for a new low. We might even see the neckline test in the next few days.

GBPUSD has so far held the August low of 1.9650, as long as that holds, G/J stands a good chance of retesting the neckline. If we can get EUR/GBP to head in our favor as well, that's all the propulsion the pound will need.
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