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  • #21
  • Nov 19, 2007 4:16am Nov 19, 2007 4:16am
Quoting SeekingLight
UJ, since it's been the counterpart to the indices.

Stage is set, curtains up.

This one has come along nicely. Small update with a rather messy weekly chart since I tried to get too much s/r in

Monthly probably would have been cleaner. Anyhow - my 109 area waymarker(my journal readers saw me chart it out like a madman step by step ;p) was hit and the TL test is most likely next.

What happens there I don't know.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #22
  • Nov 19, 2007 4:48am Nov 19, 2007 4:48am
I think USD/JPY will be well supported once we get down to about 100.00 even. It's a huge psychological number and it provided great support twice in the past (1999 and 2004). It would be a good time for the BOJ to intervene as an intervention at that point would be much more likely to succeed as it would flush out a lot of nervous shorts, many of whom would already be taking money off the table at that point. It is also quite likely that we will see Japan get hit very hard by the slowdown in the US, since the domestic numbers in Japan are not very good, and USD/JPY at 100.00 certainly won't help exports. It will become a question of which economy the market has LESS faith in, not more.

Below 100.00 I don't see much of anything until 80.00, which I don't think the BOJ can live with, so I think they will defend 100.00 with all they've got.

If 100.00 gives, we could see mass suicides in Japan.
  • #23
  • Edited 6:07pm Nov 23, 2007 6:40am | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting fierceman
If 100.00 gives, we could see mass suicides in Japan.

My 99 area reads: "roughly hereabouts the world is going to end" ;p

Yepp, if 100 and 96 gets wasted there's easily 2000-3000 pips of space opening up. 100 / 96 / 88 / 80 probably would be the numbers with s/r at a glance.

Considering everyone keeps yelling for higher YUAN valuation and for Asia to take their share as well as ongoing rate hike considerations, maybe a continuation of the USDJPY downtrend isn't that impossible an idea.
But the upspike is just as possible.

Either way, there should be a rather ugly outcome in the future.

Oh and by the way - the S&P and DJI are both back at / below this year's opening level.

Wall Street's way of saying thanks for putting your money, trust and pensions into us

Edit - actually only the S&P was - the DJI still had a few hundred points left over(2-3 day's ranges worth). My bad.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #24
  • Nov 23, 2007 3:35pm Nov 23, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting SeekingLight

Oh and by the way - the S&P and DJI are both back at / below this year's opening level.
Look again. Yes I realize this was posted before the US markets opened today.
  • #25
  • Nov 23, 2007 5:04pm Nov 23, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting fierceman
I think USD/JPY will be well supported once we get down to about 100.00 even. It's a huge psychological number and it provided great support twice in the past (1999 and 2004). It would be a good time for the BOJ to intervene as an intervention at that point would be much more likely to succeed as it would flush out a lot of nervous shorts, many of whom would already be taking money off the table at that point. It is also quite likely that we will see Japan get hit very hard by the slowdown in the US, since the domestic numbers in Japan are not very good, and USD/JPY at 100.00 certainly won't help exports. It will become a question of which economy the market has LESS faith in, not more.

Below 100.00 I don't see much of anything until 80.00, which I don't think the BOJ can live with, so I think they will defend 100.00 with all they've got.

If 100.00 gives, we could see mass suicides in Japan.
I agree (and with my money where my mouth is), that BoJ will intervene to keep USDJPY high inspite of the impending CNY appreciation... A high JPY would surely crush the JP economy. They have tasted that in the 80s; they are not stupid to make a repeat of it again. China dont even want to experience that and had been politically jocking with everyone to keep USDCNY high.
  • #26
  • Nov 23, 2007 6:19pm Nov 23, 2007 6:19pm
Reading WSJ and Bloomberg makes me sick.

The "worst might be over, stocks rally" headlines and articles get posted on the same page that read "worst might yet still come in subprime crises" and then again next to "Greenspan says subprime hit bottom, can't go lower than zero".

WTF!

People, seriously. You can't have both. Either there's a lot of crap still to be dug out and skeletons left in the closet and the consumer impacted and hurt; or it's all just exaggeration, remedied by emergency measures, eased by the coming superfund, all good because the consumer is immortal and the retail sector invincible.

It can't be both over and still have the worst yet to come.

For every excuse of "10% drop are signs of just another correction and the slightly higher lows at the end of each drop look like a positive sign" the next sentence reads "57 weeks are the average time for a bull run, we're already over 60".
Again - wtf!

Useless, useless, useless and useless misinformation piled over contradictory misinformation over misinformation.
Why post the darn article if you constantly disable your own argument every other paragraph.
Why post article A if article B two headlines lower states the opposite.

WTF people, wtf.

Isn't there anyone left who can simply take the essential facts as they are and derive a plausible, objective logic and outlook without constantly saying "of course there's really no point to me saying this as it could just as well be the opposite and all in my head"?

At least on a chart I can look at it and see "oh look, lower lows, lower highs, why, I do believe it's going down and no two ways about it!" most of the time. What these people are doing is nothing short of nauseatingly pointless.
"We're doomed! We're saved! We're doomed!" - does anyone remember the Simpsons parody of the Stock Market Bubble Rollercoaster?
Feels exactly like that.

Either it's bad, really bad or not that bad at all - but someone decide what's what and who's right or not - needing to wait until the results are in to know sort of makes it pointless to have media, webpages, analysts, journalists, etc pp in the first place. Utterly.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #27
  • Nov 23, 2007 7:10pm Nov 23, 2007 7:10pm
You're getting upset again !!! Seems to me the solution was exactly what you said above... the charts tell you... lower lows and lower highs... or higher highs and higher lows...

Lets all have a coffee.... and I'll have a champagne... we'll all feel better... And turn the TV off so you don't have to watch Bloomberg...
  • #28
  • Nov 24, 2007 4:15am Nov 24, 2007 4:15am
Quoting fierceman
It is also quite likely that we will see Japan get hit very hard by the slowdown in the US, since the domestic numbers in Japan are not very good, and USD/JPY at 100.00 certainly won't help exports. It will become a question of which economy the market has LESS faith in, not more.
That's a really mean thing to say. Did you come to Japan?
Since other Japanese members don't say a word, so I answer candidly.(I'm a Japanese, therefore I have the authority to argue.)

Your ideas are behind the times. Things change with the change of the times. The times when we thought only US is a key player in the global economy ended.
For example, even if American car market slackens, Russian/Latin America/India's car markets are booming.
In addition, Japan has already changed production-goods supplier of mother machines. See my past articles for details.
As long as Japan provides quality products and good after-sales technical services, even if strong yen, foreign companies can't help but purchase Japanese high-technology manufactures.
Well, Japanese companies have made desperate efforts using energy saving/technical innovations since the oil crises of 1970s or while USD/JPY had become 79.75 yen in 1995. We think Japan's economy can sustain.

Quote
If 100.00 gives, we could see mass suicides in Japan.
You're kidding. Japanese people tend to invest only excess cash in stocks and bonds or foreign currencies. Now people shift to emerging countries' currencies or stocks.
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #29
  • Nov 24, 2007 5:40am Nov 24, 2007 5:40am
[quote=SeekingLight;1728074]Reading WSJ and Bloomberg makes me sick.



WTF!

Yeah me too thank God we have the charts, oh and xmas.
Attached Image
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #30
  • Nov 24, 2007 5:56am Nov 24, 2007 5:56am
Quoting SeekingLight

Oh and by the way - the S&P and DJI are both back at / below this year's opening level.

Wall Street's way of saying thanks for putting your money, trust and pensions into us

Edit - actually only the S&P was - the DJI still had a few hundred points left over(2-3 day's ranges worth). My bad.
Just was at the supermarket where an Afro-German/American was talking to a friend of his about the plummeting stocks and USD

It's everywhere! He was not amused, let me tell you

I think he went something like "it used to be the USD was the strongest etc etc and now your currency is all like THE new hot thing, see what things have become, meantime our/my stocks are falling, falling..."

Along those lines

Didn't evesdrop, was just passing by and overheard =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #31
  • Nov 24, 2007 11:20am Nov 24, 2007 11:20am
But the flip side of that is what do you think EADS aka Airbus thinks of the plummeting US$.

Their expenses are in euros and their revenue is in US$.

I think CEO said something along the lines of they are at a critical stage.

+ + +

French Pres Sarkozy won his first battle getting union to come back to the table. Much of Europe is realizing the global economy is here and here to stay, whether some like it or not. With US$ at an export advantage it is even more important for them "to get their house in order".

+ + +

I always keep in mind the expression, "the grass is always greener on the other side". That is, except when it only apprears to be.
  • #32
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:21am Nov 25, 2007 8:21am
Btw, the supermarket anecdote wasn't gloating, it was the observation that the "common man" even now knows about this stuff.

This could have quite different implications indeed.

Anyhow - found this very nice USD trade weight adjusted S&P index comparison chart...

Given the assumption you're an "outside investor" your money actually went to crap and never returned a whole lot earlier and stronger due to the USD currency loss offsetting.

Although to be honest I wonder whether people don't just use currency hedges for this sort of thing in turn to eliminate this exact dilemma. Oanda for example seems to offer this in realtime on a corporate level. Only saw the ads for it, but it seems to exist.

Source for image is http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/trad...lobal%20Lenses
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  • #33
  • Edited 11:53am Nov 25, 2007 11:42am | Edited 11:53am
Chart update. S&P reached the arrowed / blue box TL region and bounced accordingly. Blue box power and all that.

Loss sees next s/r.

DJI basically closed on s/r - not sure whether this counts towards either side.

Futures not much more helpful.

UJ also reached it's TL. So, we're all once again all sitting on our trendlines after a Friday bounce.

Giant reversal rallies these seem not to be.

Now what Mister Market?

I am also still fascinated by the fact that almost all or in the case of EJ all of the movement down in the carry crosses has come from SOLELY USDJPY's descent(as EURUSD kept making higher highs as USDJPY had to cause EJ to go lower on it's own in SPITE of the new highs on EURUSD). This imho is an important thing to keep in mind.

Also the DAX seems to be the only index that made it back 100% to it's weekly open, forming a PB on a trendline here. Is the DAX the clearest picture here? I can't rely on the TL much since I have too much data errors in the feed for drawing it nicely.

However it feels like it's a bit in mid-air nonetheless, even though it's sitting on the support cluster of those previous thrashy bars at 7500.

I think everyone is wondering really hard what to do with all this stuff next.

I'm going to pick out some "if then else" conditions for myself and just adjust my trades accordingly.
Could very well be we're nearing a breaking point for either bulls or bears soon. The yearly open line is staring a lot of people in the face right now.
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Attached Images
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  • #34
  • Nov 30, 2007 11:11am Nov 30, 2007 11:11am
Quoting Fumafuma
That's a really mean thing to say. Did you come to Japan?
Since other Japanese members don't say a word, so I answer candidly.(I'm a Japanese, therefore I have the authority to argue.)

Your ideas are behind the times. Things change with the change of the times. The times when we thought only US is a key player in the global economy ended.
For example, even if American car market slackens, Russian/Latin America/India's car markets are booming.
In addition, Japan has already changed production-goods supplier of mother machines. See my past articles for details.
As long as Japan provides quality products and good after-sales technical services, even if strong yen, foreign companies can't help but purchase Japanese high-technology manufactures.
Well, Japanese companies have made desperate efforts using energy saving/technical innovations since the oil crises of 1970s or while USD/JPY had become 79.75 yen in 1995. We think Japan's economy can sustain.


You're kidding. Japanese people tend to invest only excess cash in stocks and bonds or foreign currencies. Now people shift to emerging countries' currencies or stocks.
Sorry I didn't see this post until now... I'm not trying to be mean or old-fashioned. Don't take it as an attack on yourself or on your country. Yes, I have been to Japan, and I have much respect for Japan and Japanese people. However, the Japanese economy has been in a slump for a decade, and a slowing US economy is simply not going to help since the US is still the largest consumer of Japanese exports. Also, JPY strength against USD (@ 100.00) would also imply JPY strength against other currencies, particularly the currencies of the emerging economies you mention, so exports to those countries are also likely to suffer under the USD/JPY @ 100.00 scenario. Not to mention Japan's heavy dependence on (expensive) energy imports and weak domestic consumption.
  • #35
  • Dec 3, 2007 6:19am Dec 3, 2007 6:19am
Small update.

Basically the "teeth and nails" close above that s/r level on the DJI seems to have been enough to count as "above" and get things back up to the next higher s/r again.

Similiarly the S&P trendline was hit, only slightly pierced and price rejected, with no close below it.

We could see some spikes towards the undersides of former trendlines / runs at s/r again before price shows some more reaction.

Weekly bars for now suggest at least a test higher before anything else.

However, given that there are some news being pushed around that could be potentially hurtful I have no idea what those will do.

For now I expect a bit more of a tussle still and there is no indication of a move back lower yet.

I will keep watching these.

Gold and Oil are falling as the USD is rising and both have weekly/monthly bearish setups.
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  • #36
  • Jan 9, 2008 1:34pm Jan 9, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Basically the "teeth and nails" close above that s/r level on the DJI seems to have been enough to count as "above" and get things back up to the next higher s/r again.

Similiarly the S&P trendline was hit, only slightly pierced and price rejected, with no close below it.

We could see some spikes towards the undersides of former trendlines / runs at s/r again before price shows some more reaction.
Weekly bars for now suggest at least a test higher before anything else.
However, given that there are some news being pushed around that could be potentially hurtful I have no idea what those will do.

For now I expect a bit more of a tussle still and there is no indication of a move back lower yet.

I will keep watching these.
Basically what happened.
Price retested prior TL underside and higher s/r area, fell back down, lost the TL, testing the 2007 low / s/r as noted in prior comments as I type this.

No surprises.

IMHO - forget about the over-obsessing about fundamentals, forget "market gossip" and all that ladeeblah, a few simple ideas of what the market and price can do and you have an outline for the future market behavior without ever having read one page / watched one minute of Dumbberg or similiar.

-

On another note, I will discontinue this thread as I have no time to maintain it.

People seem to prefer the emotional throes and woes that talking about news and the evil fed and the "PPT blackops" etc brings instead anyhow, rather than 2-3 boring lines on a chart(that could end up actually giving you a real price for entries, stops, exits, determining what's going on, et).

I will be focussing on teaching this stuff/how I view things both over on the J16 thread in the public section as well as - mainly - in my section in the reopened James16 site(quasi "Private Forum").

To each their own.

Toodles,

SL
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  • #37
  • Last Post: Jan 9, 2008 1:55pm Jan 9, 2008 1:55pm
Thanks for the thread enjoyed following....
Nice charting dude!
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
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