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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,161
  • Nov 23, 2007 9:54am Nov 23, 2007 9:54am
Quoting gtt
HATS OFF, THUMBS UP...

Now I'm gonna actively look for market action, last couple of weeks were just too busy weeks with tons of meetings. And not so good for my minor open positions :| But since I'll be able to look at the market with uninterrupted attention gonna be around. You're doing awfully good amount of pips! Let me join along with you, 2500pips sounds way too good to resist

Do you mind sharing the downside risk potential?
When we get to these levels, there's really two possibilities. A large move up or a large move down. I normally treat it as a reversal so at this stage I am expecting a change in trend on the daily/4h (i.e I'm bullish). The signs are there for a big north movement so the way I do it is scale into longs whilst within my range (221.83 to 220.52 being 130 pips).

If this breaks to the downside then I will start to add shorts and if it goes far enough, my longs will eventually get reversed. This analysis is done on the monthly charts so things tend to move slowly and the margin for error tends to be larger so make sure you can handle it. Remember a 2500 pip target with a 250 pip margin for error provides a 10:1 Risk to Reward ratio.
  • #14,162
  • Nov 23, 2007 9:57am Nov 23, 2007 9:57am
Quoting smikester
Good work there, Zoran. How long do you think it will take to reach 205?

Not sure, but not for a while. There is strong support at 220.5, then 213 and then 206.
  • #14,163
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:09am Nov 23, 2007 10:09am
I'm hopining you are right. The third possible scenario is bumping between 220 and 225 for several weeks while the banks and PPT play around with us.
Gone to a better place
  • #14,164
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:21am Nov 23, 2007 10:21am
Quoting smikester
I'm hopining you are right. The third possible scenario is bumping between 220 and 225 for several weeks while the banks and PPT play around with us.
If there is a panic of sorts then it could happen but otherwise the signs are bullish (according to what I see).

Here is a potential bullish wedge also. I don't expect price to go too far below the two bottom purple lines, each providing strong support (at 220.70 and 220.52)!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy4h.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #14,165
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:31am Nov 23, 2007 10:31am
Looks like Zoran's bullish call is in effect as we're testing 222.00 as we speak
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,166
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:53am Nov 23, 2007 10:53am
Doing a little research and looking back at some older work, I found that I had daily time lines for GJ and the S&P 500 today - and allowing a +/- 1 day leeway this would stretch from Thursday into Monday. The S&P is now up 21 from its low and the Dow +144 and GJ +100 pips from its low nearly 2 hours ago.

Additionally, I found a target for the $ Index of 74.66 again in a time window....the low so far was 74.64 at 2am est this morning, the $ Index has now moved above the 75 level.

Thus I'm seeing an initial indication that these time windows are going to be respected as lows, but this will only be confirmed by Mondays close. TWT.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,167
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:57am Nov 23, 2007 10:57am
I think the bullishness will happen only if BOJ intervenes with at least +500 pip for UJ. They did it before, they can do it now, but different times, different conditions. ALso the DOW finish today will be important, whether it breaks the 4H upper trendline or not (that means finish above 12950 on my charts).
  • #14,168
  • Nov 23, 2007 10:57am Nov 23, 2007 10:57am
Quoting DutchTrader
Looks like Zoran's bullish call is in effect as we're testing 222.00 as we speak
That would be nice but the journey normally starts with a few bumps.
  • #14,169
  • Nov 23, 2007 11:58am Nov 23, 2007 11:58am
Do u think G/J trend will be go up to 225.00? Pls advice, opinion.
  • #14,170
  • Nov 23, 2007 12:25pm Nov 23, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting gbfx
Do u think G/J trend will be go up to 225.00? Pls advice, opinion.
Still trying to break a strong resistance at 223.00.. lets wait
  • #14,171
  • Nov 23, 2007 12:31pm Nov 23, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting gbfx
Do u think G/J trend will be go up to 225.00? Pls advice, opinion.
Hi gbfx. From the sounds of your post, your new to the market and confused entirely about where price is, and where it is going. Don't worry, my first posts were the same exact way; believe me. Instead of asking advice of other people here, trust yourself. Trust yourself to learn the market, try your hand at placing trades that YOU have made through your own analysis, and then trade based on what you've learned. There are a lot of materials here and on other sites that are useful in helping you to begin your career.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #14,172
  • Nov 24, 2007 5:07pm Nov 24, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting charvo
Ok, this 50 SL is easily realised.

btw, I always believe that even if GJ drop to '1', yes, '1', not to mention 221, it'll be same difficult to predict that the beast won't move down more than 50 pips. Just my 1 cent.
Well yes the stops were taken and thats part of life :-) I didn't post that to be right or wrong. It was a good trade setup and just wanted to share.
  • #14,173
  • Nov 25, 2007 8:25am Nov 25, 2007 8:25am
Quoting mike w
Hi gbfx. From the sounds of your post, your new to the market and confused entirely about where price is, and where it is going. Don't worry, my first posts were the same exact way; believe me. Instead of asking advice of other people here, trust yourself. Trust yourself to learn the market, try your hand at placing trades that YOU have made through your own analysis, and then trade based on what you've learned. There are a lot of materials here and on other sites that are useful in helping you to begin your career.

i so agree that every trader should have his own style in trade and analysis belive me some times i make some calls to myself and then i see some expert trader say that the price will go oipposite of my opinion i said to myself he is true he know more than me and loose happen coz i did not hear to myself and my analysis , that is not mean i am good than him but i should listen to him and myself too do not follow anyone blindly..

my friend can you tell me about that other sites coz i need to know more about analysis
thanks
  • #14,174
  • Edited 1:35pm Nov 25, 2007 11:17am | Edited 1:35pm
Quoting Zoran
I'm thinking once we break 222.8 then the long should be good. First target is around 224.00, second around 228.00, third around 241.06 and then the final target around 244/245. I'll take some off at each target, re-enter on the bounce and adjust stops (to lock in more profit) once it breaks.
Another target that I missed was at 231.5. The resistance there could potentially turn it around to bounce back off the 221 area. Something to keep in mind should it print. We are currently 200 pips off the low and through the minor 222.8 resistance so stops are in place with a little bit of profit locked in. I'll be looking to take something off at 224 and re-enter somewhere lower should the opportunity arise.

There is still potential for price to test 220.5/220.7 (which may come after reaching 224).
  • #14,175
  • Nov 25, 2007 12:32pm Nov 25, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting Zoran
Another target that I missed was at 231.5. The resistance there could potentially turn it around to bounce back off the 221 area. Something to keep in mind should it print. We are currently 200 pips off the low and through the minor 222.8 resistance so stops are in place with a little bit of profit locked in. I'll be looking to take something off at 224 and re-enter somewhere lower should the opporunity arise.

There is still potential for price to test 220.5/220.7 (which may come after reaching 224).
Zoran thanks for this nice charts and threads from me too..I am still new bee for you all..This is very helpfull to me and give me more self confidends when i see that i have similar results..
My opinion is that we will see area 224.00 and than again new lows.
First think in monday morining will be buying GBP/JPY with TP 223.90 and than i will sell (SL 225.00) till 221.60 where i will thake profit again ..Than If we see 220.00 area i will buy and go all the way to 230-is and after, above that.
Well...Maybe i am wrong but this is just my opinion about this pair for monday
Work smart not hard
  • #14,176
  • Nov 25, 2007 2:56pm Nov 25, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting Tiger Hunter
i so agree that every trader should have his own style in trade and analysis belive me some times i make some calls to myself and then i see some expert trader say that the price will go oipposite of my opinion i said to myself he is true he know more than me and loose happen coz i did not hear to myself and my analysis , that is not mean i am good than him but i should listen to him and myself too do not follow anyone blindly..

my friend can you tell me about that other sites coz i need to know more about analysis
thanks
Sure thing, I'll send you a PM in just a moment.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #14,177
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:21am Nov 26, 2007 9:21am
Hi,

I'm in here for new forecast about of Gbp/Jpy as long-term again,
Some members in FF know me i just trading on long-term and my forecast have good accuracy.

Now i like share my position with you:
Buy Gbp/Jpy
Tp1: 239.00
Tp2: 241.50 ~ 243.00

My strategy is same as old i luck first +50 and i open new position weekly.


I hope you can make pips.


With all the best for my friends.
With Regards, MKTrader Not Risk Not Gain!
  • #14,178
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:54am Nov 26, 2007 10:54am
Quoting Zoran
Another target that I missed was at 231.5. The resistance there could potentially turn it around to bounce back off the 221 area. Something to keep in mind should it print. We are currently 200 pips off the low and through the minor 222.8 resistance so stops are in place with a little bit of profit locked in. I'll be looking to take something off at 224 and re-enter somewhere lower should the opportunity arise.

There is still potential for price to test 220.5/220.7 (which may come after reaching 224).
Zoran,

Thank your for this post. The 4 hr descending wedge had me a little worried that we didn't touch the lower end of the wedge and bounce off, therefore its just hanging there right now with a potential to revisit it. . . I have lower wedge @ 220.70's with 100 EMA support @ 220.78 for now. . .
  • #14,179
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm Nov 26, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell!

GBP/JPY to go way, way, WAY down there (and the other JPY crosses too)

Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell!
Closing price that day was 227.74 for GBP/JPY-and it's now 222.1
Has it gone down enough yet or more to come???

560 pips on G/J, 615 on A/J, 375 on N/J, 292 on E/J and 357 on U/J
  • #14,180
  • Nov 26, 2007 3:11pm Nov 26, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Closing price that day was 227.74 for GBP/JPY-and it's now 222.1
Has it gone down enough yet or more to come???
Who knows but if the weekly support is whacked out it might have a good way to go..
Check Mate GAME OVER
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