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The Art of Trading with MTF Stochastics

  • #361
  • Nov 21, 2007 2:47am Nov 21, 2007 2:47am
This is a trade I took last night:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I used a longer time frame trade with an eye on RSI on each time frame. I posted this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post1722568
earlier. I don't trade divergences as such but it confirmed my thoughts. There were two main entries scaled in and as you can see, the first one went over 100 pips the wrong way before coming back.
Gone to a better place
  • #362
  • Nov 21, 2007 9:40am Nov 21, 2007 9:40am
that is my trade on GJ which I made couple of minutes ego,I exited +9.9.
i took only a 2 or 3 minites and I could wait longer but didnt like the position of 30 m stoch and when I got +9.9 ,my daily target ,I just get out of trade.
There seems to be some resistance and the price cant go through any further.
It was nice trade .I appreciate any comment of yours.
Thank you.
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  • #363
  • Nov 21, 2007 10:00am Nov 21, 2007 10:00am
This certainly did go south to 108.24, nice call. Was watching it around the pivot wondering what to do...went to bed and then it fell.
Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting PipAV8tor
I watched the USD/JPY all morning. Although I could have been in earlier than when I got in, I pulled the trigger and took +32 pips in 30 minutes. A little scary because I thought I waited too long, but I waited for the retrace and got in on the 2nd breach of mid level resistance at 109.74 I think it will go further south toward 108, but I fought the urge to get greedy. +32 is good enough for me. For those interested, I still think the setup is favorable for further movement and the 4hr and day chart are in favor. It is retracing toward 109.74 again, but that should serve as good resistance. Good Luck if you get in.
  • #364
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:52am Nov 21, 2007 11:52am
No worries. My thoughts when I miss a trade are always that I didn't make any pips but I sure didn't give any back either!! The 'experts' think that this pair will continue south to 105.00. There could be a bounce off of 108 before it happens, but this pair is definitely in a down trend. Should be some more good opportunities soon.
  • #365
  • Nov 21, 2007 8:42pm Nov 21, 2007 8:42pm
As I learn a bit more about this wonderful game, today my revelation was about correlated pairs. On one trade I'm rooting for USD to go up and on another trade I'm rooting for it to go down as I enter simultaneous trades with EURUSD and USDJPY. Each had a reasonable good entry. I was +16 on one trade and scratched the other, but it took a lot of patience to get to this result and I probably got lucky. Was wondering how others deal with correlation. For me it's now EURUSD, USDCAD and AUDJPY. These pairs seem to be the most uncorrelated pairs. Does this make sense. Sorry about the off topic question...but these are the 3 pairs I plan to trade using MTF stochastics as I near the point of putting real money in play, so I guess it's on topic.....
Cheers,
CanuckCT
  • #366
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:39am Nov 22, 2007 2:39am
Quoting marcin25
that is my trade on GJ which I made couple of minutes ego,I exited +9.9.
i took only a 2 or 3 minites and I could wait longer but didnt like the position of 30 m stoch and when I got +9.9 ,my daily target ,I just get out of trade.
There seems to be some resistance and the price cant go through any further.
It was nice trade .I appreciate any comment of yours.
Thank you.
Looks like a good trade. Did you set a TP when you opened the trade? Sometimes when there is high volatility my broker makes it difficult to get out of a trade by giving re-quotes (which I nearly always decline because I don't have time to check the figure) when I try to close the order. Does that happen to you?

I think having a daily target is a good idea. It would give me more discipline in my trading. This is something Spudfyre is very keen to advise. Some days are not good for trading, though. I wonder if, on those days, I might be tempted to take a dodgy trade. How do you cope with this?
Gone to a better place
  • #367
  • Nov 22, 2007 5:55am Nov 22, 2007 5:55am
I dont set TP and SL.I always watch the screen when I have the trade opened.I dont have any idea if some big boys are hunting but it hapened many times my SL was hit when I set it,so now I dont use it anymore unless I open a trade and cant watch it.
I do not prefer any days for trading.What I do is that I dont take trade at least 1/2 hour before and after imporatnt annoucement,apart from that I trade every day from Monday to Friday(Friday not too late).
It never happened to me that my broker requoted when I wanted to get out of trade since I am using Oanda (As I mentioned I dont trade when news are coming and that is the time the high volatility happens).
I try to choose the best setups(the best in my opinon,which I feel comfortable with)which supposted to bring you 10-20 pips,but I try not to stay in a trade too long,when I have my 5-15pips I exit and having my daily goals of 10 pips keep me desciplined and make me not to chase after many pips and this safe me from loosing trade many times.
  • #368
  • Nov 22, 2007 7:52am Nov 22, 2007 7:52am
watch the EU,it could be nice short soon,when 4h cross 80 down with 15 and 1H,30M below 20line
  • #369
  • Nov 22, 2007 8:06am Nov 22, 2007 8:06am
try this one
http://chivas88chi.wordpress.com
  • #370
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:34pm Nov 22, 2007 1:34pm
that is my today trade for +8 pips.
I entered below yellow ,dotted line (daily pivot) and exited when price touched pivot line.
15/30M and 1H crossed 20 up and all have good angle,I know it was against 4H but I traded together with daily stoch.which crossed 20 line and nicely looking up.
It was good trade when targeting a caouple of pips.I took only +8piops but it would bring you easily 15-20.
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  • #371
  • Nov 23, 2007 3:44am Nov 23, 2007 3:44am
Here's an early morning setup I took...
Price had clearly bounced off S1 and there was room to the pivot. Spud setup looked good as M15, M30 and H1 all pointing up. H4 indicates may be a small bounce o9ff a some type of bottom and no real resistance in site until 95.47, which is above the pivot. Chickened out for pivot as target and closed for 22 pips.
CanuckCT
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  • #372
  • Nov 23, 2007 3:58am Nov 23, 2007 3:58am
Here's another early morning setup for usdcad. Price had cleared the pivot on M15, threads pointing up and a setup on sexy M15. On H1 threads pointing up nicely and on the H4 making higher lows. Small target because could be some resistance just above according to H4 and due to low volume re US Thanksgiving. Closed for 12 pips. Two trades closed for + pips...done for the day.
Cheers,
CanuckCT
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  • #373
  • Nov 24, 2007 4:24am Nov 24, 2007 4:24am
Why are people chasing small pips with MTF Stochs? Most of my trades easily yield 40pips gain. I am having great success with MTF stochs. I have made 20 trades, only 1 was a failure. And I earned 3k using a 2k account!

Please comment on my trades, help me improve on it. They are all posted on my blog

INVESTKRIS
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  • #374
  • Nov 24, 2007 5:31am Nov 24, 2007 5:31am
Quoting kris
Why are people chasing small pips with MTF Stochs? Most of my trades easily yield 40pips gain. I am having great success with MTF stochs. I have made 20 trades, only 1 was a failure. And I earned 3k using a 2k account!

Please comment on my trades, help me improve on it. They are all posted on my blog

INVESTKRIS
Kris,

We are glad for your success. I am assuming that this is a live account. Some people, including myself prefer a strategy where you increase your lots instead of chasing bigger pip gains. It also, most of the time, reduces your exposure to abrupt volatility swings thus reducing your drawdowns. Please share your trade set up in this thread so that we can all learn and make comments.

Good luck
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #375
  • Nov 24, 2007 5:36am Nov 24, 2007 5:36am
Quoting CanuckCT
As I learn a bit more about this wonderful game, today my revelation was about correlated pairs. On one trade I'm rooting for USD to go up and on another trade I'm rooting for it to go down as I enter simultaneous trades with EURUSD and USDJPY. Each had a reasonable good entry. I was +16 on one trade and scratched the other, but it took a lot of patience to get to this result and I probably got lucky. Was wondering how others deal with correlation. For me it's now EURUSD, USDCAD and AUDJPY. These pairs seem to be the most uncorrelated pairs. Does this make sense. Sorry about the off topic question...but these are the 3 pairs I plan to trade using MTF stochastics as I near the point of putting real money in play, so I guess it's on topic.....
Cheers,
CanuckCT
Hello Canuck,

I have been trading the aud/jpy for the last month or so and I have noticed a few things:

As the pound/yen, euro/yen goes so does the aussie/yen. If the aud/usd is up and the usd/jpy is up so will the aud/jpy and viceversa.

Take care,
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #376
  • Nov 24, 2007 9:43am Nov 24, 2007 9:43am
Hello Kris,

Welcome to the thread...I see you have a game plan on your blog...nice and achievable I believe with a tremendous amount of discipline to stick with the plan. I have a similar plan in mind...but still in demo mode.

Perhaps you could post some of your setups here and you will generate some discussion for sure. I do realize that you have a blog but I think many people don't have the time or inclination to go to yet another website for information.

I have found MTF stochs to be very effective in getting you into a profitable trade. What I'm looking for is a better exit strategy as I often leave too many pips on the table by exiting too soon. Perhaps you could share some of your exit strategies.

As Moneda indicates, many folks here are looking to increase their lots and go for smaller pips and this can be very profitable. Do the math - 40 pips a week from high quality setups...and increase your lots as your equity grows. That is certainly one approach that can work very well. But it's only one approach.

I took 4 trades this week, all winners, in a demo account for a total of 86 pips. I figure I can make a nice living on that kind of result and that kind of discipline instead of the hype-active trading I was doing a while ago that would give it back faster than I could earn it.

So what is your entry and exit strategy?

Cheers,
CanuckCT


Quoting kris
Why are people chasing small pips with MTF Stochs? Most of my trades easily yield 40pips gain. I am having great success with MTF stochs. I have made 20 trades, only 1 was a failure. And I earned 3k using a 2k account!

Please comment on my trades, help me improve on it. They are all posted on my blog

INVESTKRIS
  • #377
  • Edited 12:18pm Nov 24, 2007 9:46am | Edited 12:18pm
I stumbled accross this MTF stoch indicator. Will be using it long side my other indicators to see what I like better. This one gives you the stoch for x bars for all time periods. It's interesting for sure.
Cheers,
CanuckCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpym15.gif Size: 26 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 All Stochastic v1.0.mq4   9 KB | 559 downloads
  • #378
  • Nov 24, 2007 1:22pm Nov 24, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting kris
Why are people chasing small pips with MTF Stochs? Most of my trades easily yield 40pips gain. I am having great success with MTF stochs. I have made 20 trades, only 1 was a failure. And I earned 3k using a 2k account!

Please comment on my trades, help me improve on it. They are all posted on my blog

INVESTKRIS
Kris,

I do agree with you that MTF stoch trades are routinely capable of yielding 40+ pips. I only trade the GBP/JPY and my default take profit is at 50 pips. I rarely go for less than that.

As an aside, I went to you blog and was quite impressed with the trades you posted there. I was very impressed with your analysis. I also applaud you in your trading plan, and your very ambitious goal. I don't, however, mean to be a downer when I say this: I think you might be overleveraging your account. You goal was to start off trading 5 minilots on a $2000 account.

5 minilots x 10,000 = 50,000 worth of currency per position taken. Your starting account was 2,000. 50,000 position size/2,000 account balance = 25. Your account, therefore, is leveraged 25:1. That's an EXTRAORDINARILY high leverage. Most professional traders seek to reduce the amount of their leverage. Most shoot for 5:1 leverage or LESS. The main idea being that capital preservation is the name of the game. Keeping your leverage down will allow traders to ride through the inevitable drawdowns and losing streaks. One cannot trade if one has no money.

I do sincerely hope that you achieve your goal, and I will be dropping by your blog routinely to check on your progress and to root you on. I do hope, though, that you give a little thought to possibly mitigating the size of your positions relative to your account balance. I have read before that overleveraging is the single greatest mistake that wipes most traders out.

Good luck.
  • #379
  • Nov 24, 2007 2:09pm Nov 24, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Hello Kris,

Welcome to the thread...I see you have a game plan on your blog...nice and achievable I believe with a tremendous amount of discipline to stick with the plan. I have a similar plan in mind...but still in demo mode.

Perhaps you could post some of your setups here and you will generate some discussion for sure. I do realize that you have a blog but I think many people don't have the time or inclination to go to yet another website for information.

I have found MTF stochs to be very effective in getting you into a profitable trade. What I'm looking for is a better exit strategy as I often leave too many pips on the table by exiting too soon. Perhaps you could share some of your exit strategies.

As Moneda indicates, many folks here are looking to increase their lots and go for smaller pips and this can be very profitable. Do the math - 40 pips a week from high quality setups...and increase your lots as your equity grows. That is certainly one approach that can work very well. But it's only one approach.

I took 4 trades this week, all winners, in a demo account for a total of 86 pips. I figure I can make a nice living on that kind of result and that kind of discipline instead of the hype-active trading I was doing a while ago that would give it back faster than I could earn it.

So what is your entry and exit strategy?

Cheers,
CanuckCT
CanuckCT,

You may have already looked into this but an exit strategy I feel works pretty well is to trail a stop 10 pips (+ or - depending on time frame) above or below the last bar after the 533 stoch gets below or above the 20/80 lines. Simple and price action based. Of course the stoch may not make it to the 20/80 lines. I use a 1xATR(10) trailing stop prior to the stoch getting to the 20/80 lines. Once in a trade, the only thing that gets me out is the ATR trailing stop or the previous bar hi/low. (I trade 4hr and occasionaly 1hr charts.)

Matt
  • #380
  • Nov 24, 2007 8:18pm Nov 24, 2007 8:18pm
Hello Rochemb,

Perhaps I'll try something like that. Often my stop will be half way up the bar and it get's taken out.

One question....

You mention 5,3,3 on the H1 and H4 timefames...I've had a look at that using MTF stocks for H1, H4 and D and it looks very workable as well. So when you refer to the 5,3,3 reaching 80...do you mean 5,3,3 for the H1 stoch on H1 timeframe and/or H4 timeframe? Or something else....

Thanks so much for the idea on the stops. Right now I'm using a combination of trailing stop and pivots, S & R for stops and targets. It's working, but just trying to improve. Since I'm now trading less often, the setups seem better and often look like they could run. So exit strategy needs some attention.

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting rochemb
CanuckCT,

You may have already looked into this but an exit strategy I feel works pretty well is to trail a stop 10 pips (+ or - depending on time frame) above or below the last bar after the 533 stoch gets below or above the 20/80 lines. Simple and price action based. Of course the stoch may not make it to the 20/80 lines. I use a 1xATR(10) trailing stop prior to the stoch getting to the 20/80 lines. Once in a trade, the only thing that gets me out is the ATR trailing stop or the previous bar hi/low. (I trade 4hr and occasionaly 1hr charts.)

Matt
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