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SRDC Episode II

  • #1,781
  • Edited 1:30pm Dec 30, 2006 1:02pm | Edited 1:30pm
Well we had quite a ride here....and lets talk some price action. The golden question for the day...

What do we do when our Channel is broken? Freeze? Anticipate a turnaround? Or follow price action? Remember the simple rule of Support Resistance? Friends keep in mind that Channels are trendlines...do what you do when ur trendline is broken just like SRDC1...or you'll see OR steal ur pips over and over laughing his way to the bank.

Analyse my crimson channel...

Oh and i forgot to add...did anyone take a look at the 4hr channel?
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  • #1,782
  • Dec 30, 2006 1:04pm Dec 30, 2006 1:04pm
Correction: Really big boys don't really want to push the price up, they just want to change the $ at hand to other currencies. So sometimes they may wish to push down the price to get a better price to sell $.



Quoting aha
I agree with cbrock on this one. Look at the strength of those bullish bars. It appears to me that big boys wants to push the price down in Dec and really big boys wants to push the price up. When news favors to sell $ we see boys agree with each other and we get a long bullish bar. But at the times when news favors to buy $ we did not see the strength in bears as we saw in bulls. And since the median of the bullish channel (in OR's chart) was repected in the end of Dec, we can see big boys (bears) are divided, more big boys begin to wait or even agree with really big boys. So yes, it's pivot point and my bias is up too.

But this is not a suggestion of buy, for small fishes like us it's probably wise to keep that in mind and "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee".
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,783
  • Dec 30, 2006 1:54pm Dec 30, 2006 1:54pm
Quoting Traderbill07
I am going to go against the grain here and look for a move down as we begin the New Year. Looking at the daily chart we have failed to establish any new highs for over 3 weeks and it looks as if we are stair stepping slightly downward. Using history as a guide, unless we are going to break entirely new ground, we must start a Bear movement. The Bull is tired.

Disclaimer: This all means nothing if I am wrong.
What you say is true, normally. One of the biggest reasons for this is the great sales of December but this year was different....
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #1,784
  • Dec 30, 2006 2:10pm Dec 30, 2006 2:10pm
looking into the future for 2007

I see a very plausible downtrend. What do you guys think. I see our next daily candle forming outside of our channel, I see we were at 8 year highs at the first of the month. I see a very close penetration to the daily cci. This could be very cool
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  • #1,785
  • Dec 30, 2006 3:13pm Dec 30, 2006 3:13pm
Quoting aha
AltosTrader,

I tried to reproduce the problem you have with I-LRC AHA 0_2 but couldn't. I guess you have some other indicators running on the same chart and tends to delete all the objects when switching timeframe or charts.

The latest version is 0_3 btw.

aha
Thank you for your comments. I have dld the later indicator and will have a look. Lou - G's also. My problem with dis-appearing lines is only with the self drawn ones and MT4 LRC etc, not the indicators such as I-LRC. They stay fine - they probably redraw when the chart comes up.
Many thanks.
Altos.
  • #1,786
  • Dec 30, 2006 3:46pm Dec 30, 2006 3:46pm
I would wait for it to break the trendline and a new candle to form, to confirm the move.

but on the face yes a possible dt.
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  • #1,787
  • Dec 30, 2006 4:17pm Dec 30, 2006 4:17pm
Quoting preacher165
looking into the future for 2007

I see a very plausible downtrend. What do you guys think. I see our next daily candle forming outside of our channel, I see we were at 8 year highs at the first of the month. I see a very close penetration to the daily cci. This could be very cool
Glen,

Great points about the where the daily channel is heading and notice how this time the bull move was not as high as last time. We are stepping down. Orange asked us to look for a pattern in December and that was the only one I could find. Plus you agree with me so I like your thoughts....lol!


Bill
  • #1,788
  • Dec 30, 2006 5:02pm Dec 30, 2006 5:02pm
Karnak says:

UP, UP and AWAY!!!!!

1. I see an Inverted Head and Shoulder formation for December and that may translate to a VIOLENT break of the Dec down channel to the Upside. Price should break through the neckline and Hello 1.9900.

2. We also have a "symmetrical triangle in an uptrend" (up channel from Oct). The symmetry is formed by rallies and sell-offs, each smaller than the last (from candlestick lesson). There should be a continuation of the uptrend initiated by a violent break of the Dec channel when the break happens.

3. The Dec channel was a "Pennant" retracement from the longer term up trend. Retracement and pause may be over.

4. The conspiracy whacks says bullish GBP and devalution of the USD and big boys buying Euro's. (Nah, I'll stick with the first three.)


Disclaimer: I could be wrong. http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon5.gif
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  • #1,789
  • Dec 30, 2006 6:02pm Dec 30, 2006 6:02pm
Interesting analysis, Army!

About #4: In Oct. the foreign currency storage of Bank of China reaches 1000 Billion dollars, majority of them are in USD, and the president of BoC Xiaochuan Zou says that it shouldn't be a surprise for China to diversify Foreign currency storage, or something like that... that's on newspaper. I think it's a logical choice for BoC or any central banks to diversify their foreign currency storage. has anyone been following TIC report lately?



Quoting Army1
Karnak says:

UP, UP and AWAY!!!!!

1. I see an Inverted Head and Shoulder formation for December and that may translate to a VIOLENT break of the Dec down channel to the Upside. Price should break through the neckline and Hello 1.9900.

2. We also have a "symmetrical triangle in an uptrend" (up channel from Oct). The symmetry is formed by rallies and sell-offs, each smaller than the last (from candlestick lesson). There should be a continuation of the uptrend initiated by a violent break of the Dec channel when the break happens.

3. The Dec channel was a "Pennant" retracement from the longer term up trend. Retracement and pause may be over.

4. The conspiracy whacks says bullish GBP and devalution of the USD and big boys buying Euro's. (Nah, I'll stick with the first three.)


Disclaimer: I could be wrong. http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon5.gif
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,790
  • Dec 30, 2006 6:11pm Dec 30, 2006 6:11pm
That's my daily chart. Although technically the pattern I see is continuation of the prevailing trend I'm not convinced yet as there are exceptions to that rule. Ideally I'd like to see a break of that triangle before I make any assumptions which should happend within couple of days as OR stated.


Regards

P.S. Happy New Year to all
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  • #1,791
  • Dec 30, 2006 7:01pm Dec 30, 2006 7:01pm
Quoting aha
Interesting analysis, Army!

About #4: In Oct. the foreign currency storage of Bank of China reaches 1000 Billion dollars, majority of them are in USD, and the president of BoC Xiaochuan Zou says that it shouldn't be a surprise for China to diversify Foreign currency storage, or something like that... that's on newspaper. I think it's a logical choice for BoC or any central banks to diversify their foreign currency storage. has anyone been following TIC report lately?
Although I wrote #4 in jest, there is some credence to it as Bernake's trip to Beijing to persuade the Chinese to keep the Dollar was a failure. The Chinese do not want to be holding an "empty bag" if the UDS is devalued. Little by little, they will sell dollars. I think I read a report of a big boy already into the Euro and out of the Dollar. Others will follow UAE's lead to avoid losing billions if the dollar is devalued. Just thinking out loud. So the answer to OR's question, the Dollar will continue to lose strength and the long term outlook for the GBP is UP. I hope that I am wrong.
  • #1,792
  • Dec 30, 2006 7:08pm Dec 30, 2006 7:08pm
Sorry for digressing. I would keep my eyes on the supporting trend lines, channels and price action. This is where the story will truly unfold. Let's study our charts and patterns.
  • #1,793
  • Dec 30, 2006 7:27pm Dec 30, 2006 7:27pm
Im really no too sure where the price will head...but here's my analysis:

1. Pennant formation...bending more to bearishness due to price failure to secure a higher HIGHER recording a lower LOW and a lower HIGH.

2. Looking at the repititioon and price action of the daily december candles, the bulls are surely gaining weakness, their failure to recover the prices in the last trading week is a very important sign of exhaustion and uncertainty within them. To note, this time, most buying is promptly sold down with effectiveness compared to previous december bull candles.(Look at how long the wicks of the last two bull candles are)

3. In the Consolidation Zone, the price is expected to range for abt 160pips before moving to any sort of bullish or bearish bias...make sure the day traders try to pip some in this zone...the SR bounce within it could prove very profitable.

To conclude my bias is bearish on the price and expect December to be a catalyst for prices to be driven down further. Pips Ahoy!
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  • #1,794
  • Dec 30, 2006 8:07pm Dec 30, 2006 8:07pm
Quoting jest1081
Im really no too sure where the price will head...but here's my analysis:

1. Pennant formation...bending more to bearishness due to price failure to secure a higher HIGHER recording a lower LOW and a lower HIGH.

2. Looking at the repititioon and price action of the daily december candles, the bulls are surely gaining weakness, their failure to recover the prices in the last trading week is a very important sign of exhaustion and uncertainty within them. To note, this time, most buying is promptly sold down with effectiveness compared to previous december bull candles.(Look at how long the wicks of the last two bull candles are)

3. In the Consolidation Zone, the price is expected to range for abt 160pips before moving to any sort of bullish or bearish bias...make sure the day traders try to pip some in this zone...the SR bounce within it could prove very profitable.

To conclude my bias is bearish on the price and expect December to be a catalyst for prices to be driven down further. Pips Ahoy!
Good Post,

I am leaning towards the bear as well but I must say there has been great points made by those on both sides. I have read all the posts and everyone has given this some great thought. Now here is the great news! With this method we make money in either direction.

Good luck all and Happy New Year,
  • #1,795
  • Dec 30, 2006 8:26pm Dec 30, 2006 8:26pm
Quoting jest1081
Im really no too sure where the price will head...but here's my analysis:

....... the bulls are surely gaining weakness, their failure to recover the prices in the last trading week is a very important sign of exhaustion and uncertainty within them. To note, this time, most buying is promptly sold down with effectiveness compared to previous december bull candles.(Look at how long the wicks of the last two bull candles are)
Institutional traders were on holiday and really big boys were making fiscal policy decisions about next year, so I wouldn't place too much belief on this.

Here is what Rojam thought about trend on the 19th (from Rojam's Rambles on Accrete's site):

"Here we have nice LRC inside LRC and longer term projections... this is just to show that fib can be used on any time periods. LRC on W1 and fibo target 2.0112"

I'm hoping OR will weigh in here and tell us his actual projection. Should be interesting.
  • #1,796
  • Dec 30, 2006 8:35pm Dec 30, 2006 8:35pm
Quoting glenn5t
I would wait for it to break the trendline and a new candle to form, to confirm the move.

but on the face yes a possible dt.
The British said, "Well Put Old Chap, the bloody pound is getting horribly high. Its bad for our exports. Now, who in their right kind of mind will buy the British Rolls Royce? Good heavens! I certainly would'nt want to see American Cars dwelling around Downing Street".

The Americans will said, "When this trend continues, we are gonna have a recession. Thats not cool, isn't it?"

The Japanese then responded, "Suzuki Toyota Aji No Moto Mitsui Sony Toshiba Sakai Sushi?"

Dont Predict the move too much, let the market make the 1st move and tells you where it is going (breakouts). Just keep your umbrella ready. Keep watching the skies. You dont have to walk around with an open umbrella. Only when it rains you take the umbrella out. Either way, you will not get wet!

But the next candle is so deadly predictable! I cant help saying it!

I wont pay much attention to the fundamental news at the moment, it is more political and technicals. Remember, the channel usually wins!!
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,797
  • Dec 30, 2006 8:41pm Dec 30, 2006 8:41pm
Quoting traderlismiss
Good Post,

I am leaning towards the bear as well but I must say there has been great points made by those on both sides. I have read all the posts and everyone has given this some great thought. Now here is the great news! With this method we make money in either direction.

Good luck all and Happy New Year,
Well put Mellissa.
I read somewhere, Men are logical and Women are emotional. I think its the other way round in this thread. LOL
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,798
  • Dec 30, 2006 8:56pm Dec 30, 2006 8:56pm
Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi Team,

.......... heres a clue. Study the pattern of Dec candles.

Use the force....
So Orange, which way do you think this is going? We are all working to analyze here and now waiting for the teacher to grade our homework. Thank you in advance.
  • #1,799
  • Dec 30, 2006 9:02pm Dec 30, 2006 9:02pm
Quoting cbrock5000
Institutional traders were on holiday and really big boys were making fiscal policy decisions about next year, so I wouldn't place too much belief on this.

Here is what Rojam thought about trend on the 19th (from Rojam's Rambles on Accrete's site):

"Here we have nice LRC inside LRC and longer term projections... this is just to show that fib can be used on any time periods. LRC on W1 and fibo target 2.0112"

I'm hoping OR will weigh in here and tell us his actual projection. Should be interesting.
Hi cbrock,

i think you are right to a certain extent, but we have to remind ourselves that institutions, they have target qoutas to meet...im sure you are pretty experienced in this field. From what i know, here in singapore, i have a few friends who trades institutionally and they're pretty much very active in te market... but the bias in asia right now is the Yen pairs namely euroyen and gbpyen, the asian institution is still tanking on greenback weakness, and therefore, i am expecting to see less usd participation in asian session for sometime. Notice how USD is promptly sold on asian session, and the best part is it trends nicely, the volatility only comes when london opens...check it out...thats some point to note.
  • #1,800
  • Edited 9:16pm Dec 30, 2006 9:05pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting OrangeRoshan
The British said, "Well Put Old Chap, the bloody pound is getting horribly high. Its bad for our exports. Now, who in their right kind of mind will buy the British Rolls Royce? Good heavens! I certainly would'nt want to see American Cars dwelling around Downing Street".

The Americans will said, "When this trend continues, we are gonna have a recession. Thats not cool, isn't it?"

The Japanese then responded, "Suzuki Toyota Aji No Moto Mitsui Sony Toshiba Sakai Sushi?"

Dont Predict the move too much, let the market make the 1st move and tells you where it is going (breakouts). Just keep your umbrella ready. Keep watching the skies. You dont have to walk around with an open umbrella. Only when it rains you take the umbrella out. Either way, you will not get wet!

But the next candle is so deadly predictable! I cant help saying it!

I wont pay much attention to the fundamental news at the moment, it is more political and technicals. Remember, the channel usually wins!!
OR , Sakai Sushi is singaporean, Douglas Foo. Very down to earth man...hehehe

Cbrock, i think he just gave u the answer..
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