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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,021
  • Nov 20, 2007 9:25pm Nov 20, 2007 9:25pm
If price unable close below 226.40 , it form a quadra bottom on 15 minutes time frame. Tokyo pivot hold as a strong support till now...
  • #51,022
  • Nov 20, 2007 9:30pm Nov 20, 2007 9:30pm
Quoting comeinvest
Does the BOE rate cut ease the UK credit crisis. Please advice. Thannks
It will help a bit I think.. but not massively. The UK debt is around 1.3trillion, far too much for a small country. Mervyn King recently stated the boe expect inflationary pressures next year, so they have to be careful
  • #51,023
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:01pm Nov 20, 2007 10:01pm
Quote
No early end to the credit squeeze

Published: November 20 2007 22:56 | Last updated: November 20 2007 22:56

The credit squeeze is turning from a firm embrace into an uncomfortable bear hug. News on both sides of the Atlantic suggests that lenders will need to raise new capital and, even then, will have to take on less new business. Tighter conditions look set to continue and there is little that anyone can do to ease them.
On Tuesday, Freddie Mac, a repackager of home mortgages sponsored by the US government, announced a $2bn third-quarter loss, and Paragon, a UK mortgage company, announced that it was struggling to renew its financing facilities. Interbank lending rates have crept up again in recent weeks.
Freddie Mac’s loss, an unpleasant mixture of credit impairment and falls in the value of interest rate derivatives, matters less than its resulting shortage of capital. So far, prime mortgages have been little affected by turmoil in the securitisation markets but if Freddie Mac were unable to buy or guarantee as many loans, it could further affect the availability of credit to prospective housebuyers in the US.
The trouble at Paragon may have a similar effect, save that the group of housebuyers affected is landlords, not prime owner-occupiers. Also significant is that as much as £2.3bn of current Paragon mortgages will continue to be financed by its banking syndicate: another example of how the credit squeeze will push assets back on to the balance sheets of large banks.
To add to the gloom, there are also signs that the deterioration in US credit quality is spreading from subprime mortgages to auto loans, unsecured consumer finance and credit cards, where HSBC, a big subprime lender, has had to make higher provisions.
Given that there has been little rise in US unemployment, the borrowers struggling now would probably never have been able to repay. Provided there is no surge in layoffs then credit losses should be contained, but damage to the wider US economy now seems unavoidable.
The credit squeeze will cut corporate profits, especially in the financial sector, and reduce demand in the economy. The effects could last for several years and little can be done to mitigate them. Investors should provide capital, at a suitably high price, to banks with sound business models: if the banking system cannot access funds then the squeeze will be longer lasting and more painful. Lower central bank interest rates may help a little but cannot improve credit quality, and inflation is a concern. Ultimately, the credit turmoil is the price of past excesses and will not abate until they are squeezed out of the financial system.


Yet the FTSE100 rose 1.7% yesterday and the US indices also were also up at close - without much explanation other than bargain hunting after the drop on Monday. You've got to admire their optimism I suppose. The Asian markets are faring pretty badly so far today with Nikkei and Hang Seng down 1.7% and 2.9% respectively.

The relevance of this is that these gains could easily be given back to the market IMO. As FX-petra mentioned, there is risk to the downside.
  • #51,024
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:09pm Nov 20, 2007 10:09pm
GJ follow UJ usually

and we have 2 broken triangle in 5mins frame with UJ

so i think it will pull down the GJ with it. just my opinion
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  • #51,025
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:35pm Nov 20, 2007 10:35pm
OK, we are now entering the "twilight zone". Nikkei is -317 and GJ has hardly dropped! I guess traders are waiting on the BOE minutes---but this is freaky. There must be a lot of pent-up downward pressure waiting to be released. If the vote is 5-4 224 will probably not hold the downside.
  • #51,026
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:51pm Nov 20, 2007 10:51pm
u will not be wrong coz i'm also seein the same thing
Good trade bro,

Quoting vinesh2
Karmo, what are you thoughts about the price ranging right now? Would I be wrong if I said that it would drop down to 224.50 and then bounce back up
The pips is trending for you to catch, just catch it wisely.....
  • #51,027
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:02pm Nov 20, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting comeinvest
If price unable close below 226.40 , it form a quadra bottom on 15 minutes time frame. Tokyo pivot hold as a strong support till now...
JUST THE SAME THING GUY, PRESENTLY AT +80 PIPS EXPECTING 20 PIPS
MORE THEN WILL BE WAITING TO SEE THE LONDON OPENS.
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The pips is trending for you to catch, just catch it wisely.....
  • #51,028
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:04pm Nov 20, 2007 11:04pm
Anyone know how far down gbp/jpy go or is it going to turn back up would like to know what you guys think
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  • #51,029
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:17pm Nov 20, 2007 11:17pm
The two currency pairs with a direct impact on G/J, are G/U and U/J. G/U has been mostly rising all day, while U/J has been falling. G/J has been caught in the middle for the past 4 hours. Once they both start moving the same direction we'll see some big moves by G/J.

U/J has managed to push G/J beneath the 226.40 support, where there's a confluence of the daily pivot and the 1hr 50sma. This might become the new area of resistance. The 15min chart shows bearish QQE's, as does the 30min and 1hr. Price is staying below the Gann on all of these charts, as well. I'm expecting to see 225 within the next few hours, and possibly 224.50 after that.
  • #51,030
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:18pm Nov 20, 2007 11:18pm
Quoting forexpert310
Anyone know how far down gbp/jpy go or is it going to turn back up would like to know what you guys think
actually i didn't put a limit for my short loool cause i have a feeling it will break the 224.50 this time perhaps we see 220-222 depend on the news also.
  • #51,031
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:20pm Nov 20, 2007 11:20pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
The two currency pairs with a direct impact on G/J, are G/U and U/J. G/U has been mostly rising all day, while U/J has been falling. G/J has been caught in the middle for the past 4 hours. Once they both start moving the same direction we'll see some big moves by G/J.

U/J has managed to push G/J beneath the 226.40 support, where there's a confluence of the daily pivot and the 1hr 50sma. This might become the new area of resistance. The 15min chart shows bearish QQE's, as does the 30min and 1hr. Price is staying below the Gann on all of these charts, as well. I'm expecting to see 225 within the next few hours, and possibly 224.50 after that.
What fundamental is causing this U/J heavy volatile move?
  • #51,032
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:32pm Nov 20, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting Arbit007
What fundamental is causing this U/J heavy volatile move?
I think it's a combination of the weak dollar, and todays' Nikkei stock market. But I'm a technical trader, so I wouldn't be surprised if a fundamental trader had a different view of things.
  • #51,033
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:40pm Nov 20, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I think it's a combination of the weak dollar, and todays' Nikkei stock market. But I'm a technical trader, so I wouldn't be surprised if a fundamental trader had a different view of things.
Nikkei -430 right now
  • #51,034
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:46pm Nov 20, 2007 11:46pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Nikkei -430 right now
And ironically that makes the yen stronger, correct?
  • #51,035
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:51pm Nov 20, 2007 11:51pm
My TP as been hit + 100, The 15 TF is about to retrace. already touches
5SMA but waiting for confirmation.

The pair might possible see the 224.50.......

:surprised
The pips is trending for you to catch, just catch it wisely.....
  • #51,036
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:02am Nov 21, 2007 12:02am
The U/J has not had a close below 109.00 since it came up through that level in June 2005. It's found support at that level since, the last time being May of 2006. It's touched that level once again tonight. I think that will be an important psych level to go through.
  • #51,037
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:02am Nov 21, 2007 12:02am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
And ironically that makes the yen stronger, correct?
Yes, the yen is getting stronger. This is usually the major culprit when carry trades get unwound. GBP has been strengthening as well (until about 2 hrs ago) and this is what was holding GY up even in the face of very negative Nikkei. Some order has been restored and GY has fallen approx. 150pips in the last couple of hours. Still a proportionally small move given the GY's popensity to follow, and often overshoot, the equity markets.
  • #51,038
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:10am Nov 21, 2007 12:10am
it looks like gbpjpy is forming a triangle on h4 if it doesnt break 224.35 it would be a good sign to buy all the way up to 227 what do you guys think
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  • #51,039
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:12am Nov 21, 2007 12:12am
Quoting brucehvn
The U/J has not had a close below 109.00 since it came up through that level in June 2005. It's found support at that level since, the last time being May of 2006. It's touched that level once again tonight. I think that will be an important psych level to go through.
Everyone should keep in mind that the Japanese warned speculators last week that the yen was getting too strong...that warning came just above the 110 level. If the Japanese Cental Bank steps, all charts are off with the UJ. No one knows what their squeal point is, but we must be getting close. Maybe the yen can continue to strengthen despite central bank intervention, but my little account dosen't want to be involved in that fight!
  • #51,040
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:26am Nov 21, 2007 12:26am
Quoting FX-Petra
Everyone should keep in mind that the Japanese warned speculators last week that the yen was getting too strong...that warning came just above the 110 level. If the Japanese Cental Bank steps, all charts are off with the UJ. No one knows what their squeal point is, but we must be getting close. Maybe the yen can continue to strengthen despite central bank intervention, but my little account dosen't want to be involved in that fight!
Petra,
My compliments for your comments in this forum. Keep the good job UP.
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