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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #50,981
  • Nov 20, 2007 9:39am Nov 20, 2007 9:39am
Quoting DutchTrader
Yep, boosts equities which boosts gj
Ok thanks
Work smart not hard
  • #50,982
  • Edited 9:51am Nov 20, 2007 9:45am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting Trumpcard
just curious, what is pushing up the Dow? The housing data wasn't so great, was it?
Stupidity, greed, and everything other thing that will bring wall street down. What is papa fed going to do when they aren't any rates left to cut? Start giving away money just like the Japanese Government did (to it's citizens when they had a recession).
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #50,983
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:24am Nov 20, 2007 10:24am
In simple terms pls, let me know what direction GBPJPY is heading in the next 4 hours 226 or 228
  • #50,984
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:24am Nov 20, 2007 10:24am
Quoting WinningTeam
In simple terms pls, let me know what direction GBPJPY is heading in the next 4 hours 226 or 228
Check your charts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #50,985
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:26am Nov 20, 2007 10:26am
227.2 - 227.3
  • #50,986
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:30am Nov 20, 2007 10:30am
Quoting WinningTeam
In simple terms pls, let me know what direction GBPJPY is heading in the next 4 hours 226 or 228
Flip a coin
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #50,987
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:36am Nov 20, 2007 10:36am
Quoting karmostaji
Flip a coin
thats only if the charts are too challenging eh?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #50,988
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:36am Nov 20, 2007 10:36am
Quoting WinningTeam
In simple terms pls, let me know what direction GBPJPY is heading in the next 4 hours 226 or 228
why do people ask questions like this?
  • #50,989
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:03am Nov 20, 2007 11:03am
In simple terms, the worse the outlook for the US Economy, the better the chance for a rate cut in December, so the Dow rallies. This is obviously counterintuative, and cannot last in the long run, but it is where we are today. The stock market cheers any bad news that increases the chances of a Fed cut. I think this is the big non-event that will send the Dow tumbling to the 11,500-12,000 region. The market is pricing in future cuts and will be severly curtailed if they do not happen. For today, longs should be careful as the FOMC minutes being released today have a big down side potential. If the minutes reveal, even a hint, that the intrest rate cuts are over the Dow will tank and GJ will retest the 223 area in pretty short order. If minutes reveal nothing this will not give Dow much of a boost as the Dec cut is almost fully priced in already
  • #50,990
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:11am Nov 20, 2007 11:11am
I've had a look at the 224 level in greater detail and I can see that it has some historical significance. It seems that price prefers to sit on the 224 level and then occasionally dip below to bounce off 221/220. Also, it goes up to about the low/mid 228 area before bouncing back.

So at the moment we may be ranging between these levels (and perhaps for a long time to come!). It's similar to what we are seeing now but it has lasted a year in the past. Due to the interest differential, I'm still aiming to reverse long and hold at 221/220.
  • #50,991
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:14am Nov 20, 2007 11:14am
Quoting FX-Petra
In simple terms, the worse the outlook for the US Economy, the better the chance for a rate cut in December, so the Dow rallies. This is obviously counterintuative, and cannot last in the long run, but it is where we are today. The stock market cheers any bad news that increases the chances of a Fed cut. I think this is the big non-event that will send the Dow tumbling to the 11,500-12,000 region. The market is pricing in future cuts and will be severly curtailed if they do not happen. For today, longs should be careful as the FOMC minutes being released today have a big down side potential. If the minutes reveal, even a hint, that the intrest rate cuts are over the Dow will tank and GJ will retest the 223 area in pretty short order. If minutes reveal nothing this will not give Dow much of a boost as the Dec cut is almost fully priced in already
Nice summary! The "funnymentals" will determine NY price action today, so be prepared for just about anything.
  • #50,992
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:19am Nov 20, 2007 11:19am
Quoting brucehvn
The person who wrote those indicators did not supply the source code.

Bruce

Thanks for all of your help. I will use the file that was posted on Oct 17.

Steven
  • #50,993
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:34am Nov 20, 2007 11:34am
Zoran,
I am short as well, from several diffrent places, and I too would like to reverse for some long term longs. I like your 221 area when I look at the charts. I am hesitant for only one reason...the BOE. Their last vote was 6-3 in favor of keeping rates on hold. I don't know the exact date of the next meeting, but if 2 people change their mind and the BOE starts cutting rates--look out below!!! Markam's 210 will be in play. The market seems to be discounting this as a possibliity. However, how long can the US economy be in the crapper without it affecting the rest of the world? As the old saying goes ,"when USA catches a cold, the rest of the world eventually sneezes." If BOE leaves rates unchanged and can catch a hawkish tone, then 221 area will be a real nice long term carry play.
  • #50,994
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:35am Nov 20, 2007 11:35am
.
Lets make sum!
  • #50,995
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:41am Nov 20, 2007 11:41am
yep, the dow tried to move up, but it was sharply rejected
  • #50,996
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:32pm Nov 20, 2007 12:32pm
Could you please tell me whether the following statement is right:

If FED decides to not cut the rates in order to protect to dollar from further falling, this should have the following influence:

a) US Share Market goes down tremendously => releasing carry trades
b) Dollar strengthens..

i.e.

G/U => goes down as $ strengthens
U/J => goes down as carry trades "over weigh" new dollar strength
G/J => goes down because other pairs go down

Is this correct ?!?!
  • #50,997
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:35pm Nov 20, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting ernesto
Could you please tell me whether the following statement is right:

If FED decides to not cut the rates in order to protect to dollar from further falling, this should have the following influence:

a) US Share Market goes down tremendously => releasing carry trades
b) Dollar strengthens..

i.e.

G/U => goes down as $ strengthens
U/J => goes down as carry trades "over weigh" new dollar strength
G/J => goes down because other pairs go down

Is this correct ?!?!
It could happen, it would probably be more dramatic if there was a surprise. The market is expecting the no cut scenario and has largely priced it in.
  • #50,998
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm
PeterM,
If by "expecting no cut" you mean no cut today, that is right..It would be quite a shock for the Fed to give a suprise cut! If by "expecting no cut" you mean the Dec. meeting...check the futures board. Last I checked at 10am est they were pricing in at almost 100%! If this new "Fed Forecast" comming up in a few minutes cast doubt on that expectation, grab your shorts and get ready to dive. Nothing upsets Dow trades more than someone threating their "fix" from the Fed.!
  • #50,999
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:31pm Nov 20, 2007 1:31pm
It's really volatile right now. Scalp as many pips as you can. Then even if you get stopped out once the market has a clear break out. You will have gained more than enough pips to cover that sl. I just racked up a quick 120 pips on these quick up and down swings. Wallstreet is still digesting the FOMC news. I'll just be pip collector while the bulls and bears are going at it.
  • #51,000
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:48pm Nov 20, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting FX-Petra
PeterM,
If by "expecting no cut" you mean no cut today, that is right..It would be quite a shock for the Fed to give a suprise cut! If by "expecting no cut" you mean the Dec. meeting...check the futures board. Last I checked at 10am est they were pricing in at almost 100%! If this new "Fed Forecast" comming up in a few minutes cast doubt on that expectation, grab your shorts and get ready to dive. Nothing upsets Dow trades more than someone threating their "fix" from the Fed.!
yeah, thats what i meant.. I think it's 87% for a cut next time, like you say.
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