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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,101
  • Nov 19, 2007 7:14am Nov 19, 2007 7:14am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks Wolf. I always appreciate your analysis and you tend see things that I miss.

I can now see where 224 may have originated and I am of the opinion that it is a temporary up movement. I have looked at the monthly and I am convinced that strong support sits at 221/220. 224 seems fairly strong when considering that price bounced 800 pips off that level. If this second bounce goes much higher than the low 228 region then I may start to consider it a reversal so I will wait and see. I am expecting one more drop to my reversal level of 221/220.

Thanks for sharing!
Not sure if I gave you any analysis you didn't already know lol but pleased if I helped any.

After the resistance 228 it all looked downhill this morning and I've only taken shorts (still short). Looks undecided right now though Im still favouring the short side now that resistance above has been found around 228.

I just hope we do not enter a ranging period which I feel we could easily do.
  • #14,102
  • Nov 19, 2007 7:32am Nov 19, 2007 7:32am
Quoting Wolf.
Not sure if I gave you any analysis you didn't already know lol but pleased if I helped any.

After the resistance 228 it all looked downhill this morning and I've only taken shorts (still short). Looks undecided right now though Im still favouring the short side now that resistance above has been found around 228.

I just hope we do not enter a ranging period which I feel we could easily do.
Is there are some bulls now?
Work smart not hard
  • #14,103
  • Nov 19, 2007 7:50am Nov 19, 2007 7:50am
Long triggered @ 226.75 / Target1 @ 226.95
  • #14,104
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:07pm Nov 19, 2007 2:07pm
think there might be another bearish run starting in the next hour or so.
  • #14,105
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:09pm Nov 19, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting jdandcoke
think there might be another bearish run starting in the next hour or so.
Below 224.00?
Work smart not hard
  • #14,106
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:13pm Nov 19, 2007 2:13pm
my indicators are about to cross but as to what level i wounldn't like to say. only just built the system, still working on exits
  • #14,107
  • Nov 20, 2007 3:18am Nov 20, 2007 3:18am
This pair doesn't get any easier to trade but this is significant:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And at least we know where to set our short targets for now.

By the way jdandcoke, isn't cola bad for you?
Gone to a better place
  • #14,108
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:54am Nov 20, 2007 8:54am
I see a clear flat bottom Triangle on the 4hr chart, with a triple bottom. The 3-touch trendline marking the top of the Triangle has been broken, and being retested right now.

If it wasnt for the fact that I had just opened a new account and yet have to make my first trade, I would've placed my limit orders above the high of today, right about 228.20. With a first profit target @ 230, placing SL -> 227.90 and letting it run for the rest of the year unless I get stopped out.

I dont see the USDJPY gaining much more ground, maybe reaching 105 tops. also the GBPUSD got some divergence with the EURUSD performance, and I expect to see the 2 move closer to eachother, meaning the GBPUSD got some ground to regain.

The only trouble I see for the long-trade is a possible retest of the 220 area, on the weekly chart you can clearly see a double bottom in the 220 range.

If price will go back down without breaking the 228, I will look for a short entry once price has broken through the triple bottom.
  • #14,109
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:33am Nov 20, 2007 10:33am
Quoting Wolf.
Not sure if I gave you any analysis you didn't already know lol but pleased if I helped any.

After the resistance 228 it all looked downhill this morning and I've only taken shorts (still short). Looks undecided right now though Im still favouring the short side now that resistance above has been found around 228.

I just hope we do not enter a ranging period which I feel we could easily do.
I've had a look at the 224 level in greater detail and I can see that it has some historical significance. It seems that price prefers to sit on the 224 level and then occasionally dip below to bounce off 221/220. Also, it goes up to about the low/mid 228 area before bouncing back.

So at the moment we may be ranging between these levels (and perhaps for a long time to come!). It's similar to what we are seeing now but it has lasted a year in the past. Due to the interest differential, I'm still aiming to reverse long at 221/220 and hold.
  • #14,110
  • Edited 11:30am Nov 20, 2007 11:14am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting Zoran
I've had a look at the 224 level in greater detail and I can see that it has some historical significance. It seems that price prefers to sit on the 224 level and then occasionally dip below to bounce off 221/220. Also, it goes up to about the low/mid 228 area before bouncing back.

So at the moment we may be ranging between these levels (and perhaps for a long time to come!). It's similar to what we are seeing now but it has lasted a year in the past. Due to the interest differential, I'm still aiming to reverse long at 221/220 and hold.

Just a "theory" but I think in March and August the 244 level was the significant level then too, just that the momentum drove price past that level with this most recent fall not being as accute as the previous two.

I would definatley agree we will most probably range for a while now, in fact we are already.

Although I see an eventual fall to the 220 area lower edge of the weekly channel.

And then +2500 north

Got to pop out will post a chart later.
  • #14,111
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:50pm Nov 20, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Wolf.
Just a "theory" but I think in March and August the 244 level was the significant level then too, just that the momentum drove price past that level with this most recent fall not being as accute as the previous two.

I would definatley agree we will most probably range for a while now, in fact we are already.

Although I see an eventual fall to the 220 area lower edge of the weekly channel.

And then +2500 north

Got to pop out will post a chart later.
Sounds like we are on the same wavelength. If we can keep our thinking aligned, I can stop analysing and just trade your calls. Deal?
  • #14,112
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:58pm Nov 20, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting Zoran
I've had a look at the 224 level in greater detail and I can see that it has some historical significance. It seems that price prefers to sit on the 224 level and then occasionally dip below to bounce off 221/220. Also, it goes up to about the low/mid 228 area before bouncing back.

So at the moment we may be ranging between these levels (and perhaps for a long time to come!). It's similar to what we are seeing now but it has lasted a year in the past. Due to the interest differential, I'm still aiming to reverse long at 221/220 and hold.
Zoran, I have been keeping tabs on the mark at 226.60 area, which is between the 224 and 228, and more towards the neckline.

This is the breaking point to me, I will be loading shorts from 229.50 up to 235.50, originally I wanted to start in the 226 area, but have held off entering low for now.

I am still expecting the final 61.8 retrace on the bigger picture to form and the upper trend line to be tested, then down from there to test the 219 suppport on it's way to the 215/216 area this year.

This is more of a long term plan, so if those on the thread are 4 hour traders, then maybe you'll catch more ranging pips.

Have a great Thanksgiving to all.

Ken
  • #14,113
  • Edited 3:43am Nov 21, 2007 3:16am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting Zoran
Sounds like we are on the same wavelength. If we can keep our thinking aligned, I can stop analysing and just trade your calls. Deal?
What!! ... Hey its me that has been trading your calls .

Here the chart I promised last night, didn't have time and I was too wacked.

Lets see if turns around by 244 for a rise up to around 228 again. I also see it going as far as the 230 area during a range period.

A lot of people probably expecting it range between these areas so it may not even reach 224 on this leg down or it may just carry on down which is fine by me.

As usual time will tell.

Edit: Hit 224 lets see if it bounces, we have news in 5 minutes at 9:30 so that will play a part now.

So much for stopping at 244, at the M1 level 223.68 looking good for existing shorts.
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  • #14,114
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:06am Nov 21, 2007 5:06am
The British MPC vote was 2-7, so an increase of 1 in favour of a rate cut......this is not helping cable which has fallen to just above its 50% retrace on the hourly chart - 2.0528 - watch this level.

UJ has now broken under its May 14 low of ~109, but has held at its D S3 of 108.23. IF its still under 109 for the close of the 4 hr candle in an hours time this will show continued weakness. The Dow Futures was -130 - but still above yesterdays low - and is now -100.

GJ has held at its D S2 - 222.42. and has now been sideways for 45 mins and this will allow it to work off its over-sold condition - I'd be much happier seeing a good 100+ pip bounce, rather than a continuation down from here. Eitherway, I've yet to see any sign that this fall is over.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,115
  • Nov 21, 2007 6:33am Nov 21, 2007 6:33am
this is being my best trade ever....
1420 pips and more to come.....
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  • #14,116
  • Nov 21, 2007 6:40am Nov 21, 2007 6:40am
Wolf whats the highest u think this thing is going to go. I have 224.50 as a strong resistence
  • #14,117
  • Nov 21, 2007 6:53am Nov 21, 2007 6:53am
Dear Islander or anyone else,

Can anyone point to me where i can look for DOW futures Quotes,plz.

Thx,

Sri
  • #14,118
  • Nov 21, 2007 6:56am Nov 21, 2007 6:56am
Quoting vinesh2
Wolf whats the highest u think this thing is going to go. I have 224.50 as a strong resistence

Not sure it will go any higher than it has been already, we have had around a 150 pip bounce now taking it to the 223.84 almost 224 which seem a good sell position in my book. I have added there at 223.71 with stops in profit now.

I could be wrong though and as Islander has pointed out it may depend on the movement of other pairs.
  • #14,119
  • Nov 21, 2007 7:13am Nov 21, 2007 7:13am
Since we have broken the 224 support, I wouldn't expect this retracement to go much higher than it before continuing south to 221/220. Either 223.8 is it or perhaps one more spike to around 224.00 is all I expect (224.5 is max).
  • #14,120
  • Nov 21, 2007 8:38am Nov 21, 2007 8:38am
dear friends, I'm new to this thread, actually I found it today. I'm trading this pair since 4 mounts ago. unfortunately I made a big mistake and now ....
you cant imagine what I'm gonna say now ... I have a hedged position with -1350 pips .... actually I hedged it today after the big fall and 224 break.

Anyone has any idea or suggestion what should I do now?
should I keep the hedge position until 219 or may be lower?
Is there any possibility for this pair to return to 237 area again?


I need your help , thank you.
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