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Chaos

  • #181
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:41am Nov 19, 2007 10:41am
here's the 4hr chart so far! Short from BL and waiting!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4hr.PNG Size: 90 KB
  • #182
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:28pm Nov 19, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting DutchAngel
I also find the balance line trade puzzling. Isto (or anybody else who knows) could you please explain the balance line rule to us?
Balance Line trades is the fifth market dimension. The Balance Line is the line where the price would be if there were no new incoming information (Chaos) affecting the market. Mathematical calculations and computerised model analyses helped Bill Williams to find the Balance Line and build a histogram, which can be used to define the distance between the price and the Balance Line. To his surprise, Bill Williams found that this distance can be defined by the Awesome Oscillator histogram.

Explanation here.......I havent checked it for validity with Bill Williams book (Chapter 8).

http://forum.alpari.co.uk/thread60.html

(The balance line is the blue jaw line)

rgds - arco
  • #183
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:48pm Nov 19, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting DutchAngel
I also find the balance line trade puzzling. Isto (or anybody else who knows) could you please explain the balance line rule to us?
Well, in brief:
Balance line signal is signal after retrace - i.e. you have thrend, then fractal - which is change in behaviour - and few bars later retrace is over and the previous move is restoring.

This is the point where BL signals occur.

Hope explanation is clear enough...
  • #184
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:53pm Nov 19, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting osaze
I love Chaos 4 trends, but does someone have the expert advisor 4 chaos founded by bill williams?
Try searching the forums. Where were few of them...
  • #185
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:58pm Nov 19, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting traderboy
thought you might like to see the 5 min futures so far today!
Nice, what softwere do you use?
  • #186
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:30am Nov 20, 2007 12:30am
Thanks very much to Isto and Arco for your explanations. I found the link posted by Arco (post 182) very helpful.


Quoting traderboy
Isto, firstly let me say great thread!
I have a question re the explanation of your trade in the gbpusd 16 nov. I thought 'balance line' trades were suppose to be in in the same direction as the last fractal, in this case down. The balance line trade was also below the alligator, which I thought was against the rules, thus leaving the dbar trade as the only valid counter trend trade. I would be interested in your thoughts?
Traderboy

It seems as if it is possible to buy below the alligator using balance lines. However, you need to have two highs preceding your base bar.

"if you move away from the Balance Line then you need one more new high (low) to buy (sell). If instead, you move towards the Balance Line, then you need two new highs (lows)."

Take a look at link posted by Arco under heading: Buy signal below the Balance Line
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #187
  • Nov 20, 2007 7:02am Nov 20, 2007 7:02am
Bad opening of the week
EURCHF trade is here.
  • #188
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:00am Nov 20, 2007 8:00am
Hi Isto
I use esignal for my charts. Something I would also like to offer and see if anyone has noticed (probably!) When I mark my charts with the relevant signals, I have notice most generated 5 signals per move, thus the elliot wave theory Bill Williams talks about. However, if a move contains 5 signals without you being stoppped out the 4th & 5th are most likey losers. I will post a chart as an example to follow.
  • #189
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:14am Nov 20, 2007 8:14am
as mentioned I have found most moves include max 5 signals using BW chaos. Many times trades 4 & 5 are losers. I have a hunch this has something todo with the elliot wave theory!? I would be interested to know if ant one else has noticed this and your comments. I dont wave count as with many of us I think it gets far to confusing toknow exactly where you are in the count, 1,2,3,4,5? or is it an a,b,c of count 3? etc... With more research if I find trades 4 & 5 to be consistent losers, btw ISTO you chf trade seemed to have been at the end of a down move so this may apply, be interested to know how many prior sell signals were in that move??? (couldn't see the whole chart) then I will consider reviewing the position sizing model from 1,5,4,3,2, to 1,7,6. Just some thoughts.
  • #190
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:15am Nov 20, 2007 8:15am
heres a chart re the 5 moves I mentioned
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 4hr futures.PNG Size: 106 KB
  • #191
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:17am Nov 20, 2007 8:17am
Quoting traderboy
Hi Isto
I use esignal for my charts. Something I would also like to offer and see if anyone has noticed (probably!) When I mark my charts with the relevant signals, I have notice most generated 5 signals per move, thus the elliot wave theory Bill Williams talks about. However, if a move contains 5 signals without you being stoppped out the 4th & 5th are most likey losers. I will post a chart as an example to follow.

Hi Traderboy,

I think I found that d-bar indicator you're using in your chart, I had spelt it incorrectly when searching. I use e-signal end of day, and have a demo account with alpari for forex as I don't think e-signal will chart forex with the version i'm using. (I'm new to it, so i could be wrong)

Are you comfortable that the profitunity indicators are built correctly in e-signal? I noticed that they weren't built in indicators, and I downloaded sr-anaylyst versions of them, which I think you are using as well? Just curious to see if you have compared to other charting programs to see if the efs files were built correctly?
  • #192
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:27am Nov 20, 2007 8:27am
Hi Begbie
bw indicators in esignal are fine, they do what it says on the box! As for the dbar, let me know what efs you downloaded as I wrote mine and it could be different? I did have a problem with bar coloring and posted the orginal on the forum but it wasn't working. I have since fixed it. It's very simple to write in the formula wizard, it's great for exits when you are lost as to where to put a closer stop. I have version 10 the latest, it is available to download. I chart Forex with esignal but you have to subscribe to it, $50 pm. I trade futures as I am a professional trader and hate giving anything away on the spread! I have direct access to the cme so I only have 1 tick spread on the futures. The futures, however dont trend exactly the same as the spot forex.
  • #193
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:38am Nov 20, 2007 8:38am
Quoting traderboy
Hi Isto
I use esignal for my charts. Something I would also like to offer and see if anyone has noticed (probably!) When I mark my charts with the relevant signals, I have notice most generated 5 signals per move, thus the elliot wave theory Bill Williams talks about. However, if a move contains 5 signals without you being stoppped out the 4th & 5th are most likey losers. I will post a chart as an example to follow.
Hi Traderboy. I have noticed this also. I am thinking of only adding on trades up to 3 times then let the rest pass.
The only time this might work against me is if the trend is really long and has extended waves.
Could it be Man is trying to be something without knowing they're complete?
  • #194
  • Nov 20, 2007 8:46am Nov 20, 2007 8:46am
Begbie
re esignal, you may want to try mt4,you can download it for free and use your alpari demo to trade. It has the Chaos indicator built in and works well. I am not familiar with the code for mt4 and I like to write some of my indicators thats why I stick with esignal and also because I trade futures. Re extended waves I agree this could prove a problemof missing some of themove but I feel it's better to bank the profits and wait patiently for the next move.
  • #195
  • Nov 20, 2007 9:31am Nov 20, 2007 9:31am
Isto
you have probably been asked before... what is the pink line on your chart?
  • #196
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:31pm Nov 20, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting traderboy
Isto
you have probably been asked before... what is the pink line on your chart?
This is 5 period SMA shifted 3 periods in the future. Used instead of the red line as a stop
  • #197
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:35pm Nov 20, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting traderboy
...btw ISTO you chf trade seemed to have been at the end of a down move ....
you're right. this is why a loss was the result...

I do not count EWaves for I cannot find a reliable method allowing to count waves until they develop. Neither signals...
  • #198
  • Nov 21, 2007 4:43am Nov 21, 2007 4:43am
I'm can anybody say something about it's performance?
  • #199
  • Nov 21, 2007 8:12am Nov 21, 2007 8:12am
Bad beginning of the week was compensated somehow with this trade.
CADJPY chart and notes.
  • #200
  • Nov 21, 2007 10:24am Nov 21, 2007 10:24am
last trade on the euro futures.
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