Market change | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

order manager - buy or sell order on arrow change/alert change 0 replies

Long term market cycle detection/change 7 replies

Will premiums for fx options change because of leverage change 5 replies

How beliefs change Market prices and prices change the Fundamentals 1 reply

Change an EA and change your life 8 replies

Market change

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 1, 2005 7:07am Jun 1, 2005 7:07am
You guys are starting to freak me out.
I read couple of times that market is always changing,and that systems that make money now,
may not make money tomorow (figurative).Another thing that I read,is that making new systems
isn`t so hard.

Now,I have one system I designed myself,and that can be used in diferent timeframes and
diferent pairs.I am trying,but for now,I can`t design any more systems,and like I said earlier,
all that market change stuff is starting to freak me out.
For how long will my system be profitable? what when it stops making money?How?when?where?

What do you think,how much market has to change to make system useless?
  • #2
  • Edited 7:51am Jun 1, 2005 7:50am | Edited 7:51am
Just post your system....... otherwise how others can comment on it........
  • #3
  • Edited 10:40am Jun 1, 2005 8:41am | Edited 10:40am
First off - don't get freaked out! Confidence is the biggest requirement for any trading system or style. Without it, you will fail regardless of how good your system is or isn't.

What moves the market may change over time; and the dominant driving currencies may change over time; but the underlying mechanics of the market will never change regardless of all else.

If you are a intra-day or swinger, your style or system may need to adjust to a changing market based on world events or sentiments - but I would never be as arrogant to tell someone that they must scrap their entire system and start over. Adjust your system as the market adjusts, and you should never have to "invent" a new system. Trade smart- watch for trend re-directions. Markets can become biased quickly. Trust your indicators and don't try to out guess them which is a huge temptation for seasoned traders that feel they know the market or currency pair well enough.

If you are a scalper - well, what goes up must come down and vice-versa! (even if it's only 20 pips!)

Lastly, you are the best judge of your trading system/style. No one else can determine what will or won't work best for you as a trader. It's best to develop a "confidence system" - which is a little "self check" of your confidence level of the position you are about to enter. Low confidence - trade light and use tighter stops - more confidence - heavier entry - loosers stops.
Over time traders know(whether they recognize it or not) when a position is golden or may turn on them. It's like driving down a dark and icey road - experienced drivers slow because they recognize the unapparent risk - new drivers still barrel on down the road because they lack the experience and intuition of self preservation to slow down and be careful - "just in case".

Believe in your self - believe in your system - there is no reason you can't succeed regardless of what others may say.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #4
  • Jun 1, 2005 3:52pm Jun 1, 2005 3:52pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
First off - don't get freaked out! Confidence is the biggest requirement for any trading system or style. Without it, you will fail regardless of how good your system is or isn't.

What moves the market may change over time; and the dominant driving currencies may change over time; but the underlying mechanics of the market will never change regardless of all else.

If you are a intra-day or swinger, your style or system may need to adjust to a changing market based on world events or sentiments - but I would never be as arrogant to tell someone that they must scrap their entire system and start over. Adjust your system as the market adjusts, and you should never have to "invent" a new system. Trade smart- watch for trend re-directions. Markets can become biased quickly. Trust your indicators and don't try to out guess them which is a huge temptation for seasoned traders that feel they know the market or currency pair well enough.

If you are a scalper - well, what goes up must come down and vice-versa! (even if it's only 20 pips!)

Lastly, you are the best judge of your trading system/style. No one else can determine what will or won't work best for you as a trader. It's best to develop a "confidence system" - which is a little "self check" of your confidence level of the position you are about to enter. Low confidence - trade light and use tighter stops - more confidence - heavier entry - loosers stops.
Over time traders know(whether they recognize it or not) when a position is golden or may turn on them. It's like driving down a dark and icey road - experienced drivers slow because they recognize the unapparent risk - new drivers still barrel on down the road because they lack the experience and intuition of self preservation to slow down and be careful - "just in case".

Believe in your self - believe in your system - there is no reason you can't succeed regardless of what others may say.
Thanks man.Very helpful (at least for me).I understand your point.
Btw,I just love the avatar.
  • #5
  • Jun 2, 2005 4:19pm Jun 2, 2005 4:19pm
Quoting Alex
You guys are starting to freak me out.
I read couple of times that market is always changing,and that systems that make money now,
may not make money tomorow (figurative).
man this is such a deep issue that its hard to even articulate. i am a believer that systems have a "window of opportunity". understanding when that window shuts is such a hard thing to do, both statistically and emotionally. only the most advanced, most experienced traders will know when the window has shut (or opened).

i also think there is a relationship between the robustness of the system, the time period the window is open, and the profitability of the system. for instance..

> the most robust system will keep the window open for the longest period of time, but the profits will be smaller.

> the least robust system will have a short window of large profits. but you have to be a master at understanding when the window is open or closed.

as with everything in trading (and life), its all about the balance.
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Jun 3, 2005 9:14am Jun 3, 2005 9:14am
No problem, Alex.

If your system is generating a decent pip return on a consistent basis - your okay.

I set a pip range for myself based on my trading sytle and I expect that pip range on a fairly regular basis. If I notice the range I'm shooting for is shrinking, then either the trend is biased against one of the currencies in the pair, or there is re-direction occuring. (this is based on my own system - so the previous statement may not particularly apply to yours. I day trade and scalp on the 5, 15, and 1 hour charts - so for myself, I expect at least 70-75 pips per day)

Sunday's vote down is a great example of bias against the euro - the market became pratically too violent in it's swings to play the euro confidently. The indicators were unreliable at that point, so I dropped the euro and fell back on the USD/CHF which mirrors the euro's moves but not so extreme. This bias is receding and the euro may recover a great deal of it's losses - or it may not. The crystal ball is fuzzy....

It's hard to get back in the cockpit after getting slammed with an unexpected swing and absorbing more than you'd like in loss when your system has generated so much profit up to that point. It's doesn't mean your system is flawed, cause all systems trend in the lag.
You start to think you should play a safer market; but there really is no safer market than forex as long as you play it smart. And confidently!

Do it for Goose!
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #7
  • Last Post: May 2, 2019 6:32am May 2, 2019 6:32am
maybe it's a money game or some kind of fake business.
0 traders viewing now