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The System (Irony included)

  • #661
  • Nov 19, 2007 7:08pm Nov 19, 2007 7:08pm
Well guys I have to say that I am impressed with your comprehensive analysis.

I was reading carefully to all of your post and I find some common words

1)Retrace

2) wait

maybe on different tune's but you're very much aligned. Some of you went higher to a weekly charts, which is completely valid.


Seems like we have made a collective(unbiased) plan going on don't you think??

Peace
Peace
  • #662
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:00pm Nov 19, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting feb2865
It all depends. I generally build a position for a long term if the market has what it takes. Then as I see a confirmed fractal, I decide if I scale out, add some more funds or simply shot the trade completely. At the beginning you can either go all in (always with an eye on capital risk) or just build your position over time in increments of x amount of contracts/lots/shares. etc.

Peace
thanks for your answer but i have another question if you dont mind.
in the attached chart would you consider this as a fractal??? because there is only one bearish bar then the bullish bars continue, it doesnt look like a V but its some kind of retracement. should there be a minimum amount of retracement bars to look for before the main trend continues??
thanks
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  • #663
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:13pm Nov 19, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting feb2865
Well guys I have to say that I am impressed with your comprehensive analysis.

I was reading carefully to all of your post and I find some common words

1)Retrace

2) wait

maybe on different tune's but you're very much aligned. Some of you went higher to a weekly charts, which is completely valid.


Seems like we have made a collective(unbiased) plan going on don't you think??

Peace
I have been implementing this into my projections of Price Action as taught by James16, and have to say this is a NICE addition.

(My 1-2-3 trades have all been on Forex Tester, as there really hasn't been too much to get excited about so far this last few days.)

Actually, that brings me to my next point. I have noticed that the trades that I have taken have been kinda rough this last few days, mainly because there haven't been any great big swings like this system asks for. I have been fortunate enough to only lose .1% of my account total, which is nothing to worry about, and I am still up this month. But....I see that the market is so whippy right now, we might not see many nice set ups. (Bad dog Clockwork.....)

I would like to let the new guys know this is alright. In fact, if you can learn not to trade during times that are so chaotic, you are learning. Learning NOT to trade is just as important. (I swear I know this.)

A trend is what is needed for this, which my impression of the trend in the markets is this:

**** Tokyo 11 PM EST Tuesday Night ****

(Bloomberg) Someone from China has again questioned the wisdom of having the US Dollar in the Chinese Central Bank's reserves. In fact, this rather important man, who by the way, sets absolutely no monetary policy, was quoted as questioning the dollar's "very existence."

Mr. X, we will call him, was quoted as saying, "The US Dollar, in my opinion, has no weight in international markets. I have heard of this thing called "Dollar", but have yet to actually see one."

The Yen rose as confused Tokyo traders unwound the carry trade. The USD/JPY pair was down to 2 at one point in the evening. It has since rebounded after trader's realized the above quoted man was simply a tourist in town from Beijing. (At the time of this post, the pair is down 12 pips for the session.)

GBP/CHF took a similar hit this evening, as it was announced that Lindsay Lohan has once again been arrested for DUI.

"This can't be good for the Swissy, not at all."

This was a quote from a man running a Danish bank that has recently given him a 2.2 Billion Zimbabwe Dollars for losing 23 Trillion in the sub-prime debacle, as well as the Furry Squirrels Futures beginning to trade at the CBOT.


This is what reading news seems like these days. Thank God I am getting married next weekend, and aren't allowed to spend too much time with this right now. Julie seems to think I need to help for some reason, odd really.




Thank you again for the thread Feb, as I think this could be the missing ingredient in my trading "system".

Clockwork
  • #664
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:55pm Nov 19, 2007 9:55pm
My hands are hurting....so long have I been sitting on them. This market continues to range...and FEB's excellent exercise validates the wait and hold position.

But I was looking at the US/JP. If I was trading it mechanically, I should have jumped into this trade as soon as it went lower than the second lowest bar after the fractal (that is below 109.77). But there is support at 109.26. What would you have done FEB? Given the way this market is behaving I'd wait until the support is broken (ala Trader_V method), but if I was Leigh I'd be already in.

What are your thoughts?
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  • #665
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:07pm Nov 19, 2007 10:07pm
Quoting alcastro
But I was looking at the US/JP. If I was trading it mechanically ...

... but if I was Leigh I'd be already in.
Unfortunately, I can't trade USD/JPY when the trend is to the downside, because my broker's rollover premium is -8.66%, lol.

I'm only picking currency pairs where there's a positive rollover premium or at least a decent negative premium. Even if EUR/USD will be negative premium for me (-3.45%), it's a lot more feasible than USD/JPY :

alcastro ... I swear, you're putting more Canadian clothes on by the minute :
  • #666
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:15pm Nov 19, 2007 10:15pm
alcastro ... I swear, you're putting more Canadian clothes on by the minute :[/quote]

I knew you were going to refer to my elegant Canadian parka. Don't worry. I don't use the lower part of my clothing. It is just there. The EMA's are support and resistance. And I only make my trading decisions when i am without any clothing....shivering ....brrrrrrrrrrr
  • #667
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:16pm Nov 19, 2007 10:16pm
But back to my original question...would you have jumped in the US/JP trade IF the swap was positive?
  • #668
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:27pm Nov 19, 2007 10:27pm
Quoting alcastro
But back to my original question...would you have jumped in the US/JP trade IF the swap was positive?
Taking a look at all my charts ... yup, I guess I would have had to.

The GREEN arrow is the candle I would have had to enter on, since it broke through the previous candle's low.
Attached Image
  • #669
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:38pm Nov 19, 2007 10:38pm
Wow Awesome work guys love the charts I really do.

Trader V yes that trade on the us/jpy is really turning into a winner. If we see a break below the swing low at around 109.00 things should really get interesting.


Ok here is my take on the EURO/US. It's very similar to a few of you guys, the only thing is that I don't trade against the trend meaning if my setup doesn't happen to the upside I have to sit on the fence even longer.

I'm working off the 4hr chart for entry following the longer term uptrend.

This thread is really picking up steam guys and gals, pats on the back all round.
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  • #670
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:42pm Nov 19, 2007 10:42pm
But if you missed the entry already, alcastro, look at the 4hr chart ... it looks to me like it could go into a consolidation.
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  • #671
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:53pm Nov 19, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting leighsww
But if you missed the entry already, alcastro, look at the 4hr chart ... it looks to me like it could go into a consolidation.

Yep. I am waiting......all the pairs that i trade are ranging. We need a tectonic movement to shake things a little.
  • #672
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:15am Nov 20, 2007 12:15am
Quoting leighsww
Unfortunately, I can't trade USD/JPY when the trend is to the downside, because my broker's rollover premium is -8.66%, lol.

I'm only picking currency pairs where there's a positive rollover premium or at least a decent negative premium. Even if EUR/USD will be negative premium for me (-3.45%), it's a lot more feasible than USD/JPY :

alcastro ... I swear, you're putting more Canadian clothes on by the minute :
-8.66%? Well, seems you were robbed.

But did you transfer the -8.66% to pips? I would be easy to calculate the real cost of carry. For my platform, it is about 2 pips a day.
  • #673
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:23am Nov 20, 2007 12:23am
Quoting Green_David
-8.66%? Well, seems you were robbed.

But did you transfer the -8.66% to pips? I would be easy to calculate the real cost of carry. For my platform, it is about 2 pips a day.
David, do you wanna get scolded by others regarding going off-topic, lol? :

* edited - I had to let alcastro know why I couldn't trade USD/JPY, so that's the only reason why I had to bring it up, but we shouldn't be continuing discussion about it, lol. But thanks for your post and concern anyway!!!
  • #674
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:30am Nov 20, 2007 12:30am
Quoting leighsww
David, do you wanna get scolded by others regarding going off-topic, lol? :
Well. Maybe. But it is neither brother thing, nor showing-off thing. Just a suggestion to you. Because I used to be concerned for the roller interest, but if holding a short position for several days I can have several hundred pips who cares about 10 pips of carrying cost?

And due to always thinking roll-over costs, I had a bias to long only before. That cost me several thousand $.

So, what is the cost in terms of pips for your platform?
  • #675
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:34am Nov 20, 2007 12:34am
Quoting Green_David
Well. Maybe. But it is neither brother thing, nor showing-off thing. Just a suggestion to you. Because I used to be concerned for the roller interest, but if holding a short position for several days I can have several hundred pips who cares about 10 pips of carrying cost?

And due to always thinking roll-over costs, I had a bias to long only before. That cost me several thousand $.

So, what is the cost in terms of pips for your platform?
David, let's take this to PM, so that you don't get scolded.

Meet me there, I tell you (I've actually had a post about the whole rollover thingy, so I'll link you to that ).
  • #676
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:59am Nov 20, 2007 12:59am
Thanksgiving week is probably going to be a bit quiet.....maybe more hand sitting then?
  • #677
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:06am Nov 20, 2007 1:06am
Try anything excluding the USD ... the rest of the world continues
  • #678
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:19am Nov 20, 2007 2:19am
So, when E/U broke 1.4700, and 1.4725, did you have the guts to ride on immediately?
  • #679
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:24am Nov 20, 2007 2:24am
Sometimes it is just too tempting to let a pin bar go by without acting on it.

You will come to realize i dont limit myself to only one way of trading. I love my candlestick formations. I like to play pin bars and inside bars. Also i love my fib retracements. I will always pay attention to them. Lastly i am all about my pivot points as you already know by now. And the V-formation is as solid as a rock.

Even if i didnt take the pin bar i would have entered on the v-formation.

I am aiming for 2.0819 as profit target level. So let's see how close i can get.

How do i know the price might make it up to this level? Well since we broke the daily pivot and weekly pivot i am looking for a long day. We flew past daily R1 and R2 as if it wasnt there. So now we are trading between R2 and R3 and that tells me we have a strong bull run.

For those who missed the trades wait for price to retrace back to weekly pivot and then go long again.
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  • #680
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:48am Nov 20, 2007 2:48am
Quoting iandekoker
Sometimes it is just too tempting to let a pin bar go by without acting on it.

You will come to realize i dont limit myself to only one way of trading. I love my candlestick formations. I like to play pin bars and inside bars. Also i love my fib retracements. I will always pay attention to them. Lastly i am all about my pivot points as you already know by now. And the V-formation is as solid as a rock.

Even if i didnt take the pin bar i would have entered on the v-formation.

I am aiming for 2.0819 as profit target level. So let's see how close i can get.

How do i know the price might make it up to this level? Well since we broke the daily pivot and weekly pivot i am looking for a long day. We flew past daily R1 and R2 as if it wasnt there. So now we are trading between R2 and R3 and that tells me we have a strong bull run.

For those who missed the trades wait for price to retrace back to weekly pivot and then go long again.
Thank you for your analysis. As for Pivot Price, it = (H+L+C)/3 (so it is an average price that average high and low is half-weighted, and close price is half-weighted), right? But you have three pivot price, can you explain to me?

Thanks.
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