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The System (Irony included)

  • #641
  • Nov 19, 2007 7:59am Nov 19, 2007 7:59am
Ok I have enclosed the same box here but have zoomed in for a closer look.

This is how I play with the box. Looking at the daily and even the 4H there seems to be more wicks to the top rather than the bottom which indicates selling pressure. I this may break to the downside. Bit when it's rangin like this my bias don't mean squat so I have to keep my eyes open for both sides.

If prices head south I would need to see a break below the prices in the lowr yellow box. Then a retracement and then a continuation with an entry similar to that shown by the Megenta line.

If prices break to the upside I would look for the same thing.

So why would I do this?

Because everyone is looking at the same thing which means there will most likey be a false breakout. This is whee traders are slaughtered at the market. The false breakout triggers trades placed in these areas above and below the box. Then when the prices trade back into the box traders panic and exit with a loss.

So I wait for the breakout, a retracement and then a continuation to confirm the movement.

If prices do not retrace then continue well that's just a crying shame and I will have to catch the next ride.

Just my take on how I do it.

Let's se what you other folks have to say.

Quoting feb2865
If you look at the beginning of this thread - post # 2 I have some S/R lines in various areas of consolidation.


This is a chart of EUR/USD. It's been forming a coil I believe since 11/14/2007 . At time I am posting is around 9:00 AM so I really don't know what could be the end of day for this pair. Anyway, I formed a box. Obviously the market is going to break that box and push the price somewhere.

My question to all of you is......


How would you play this box?????


Peace
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Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #642
  • Nov 19, 2007 8:40am Nov 19, 2007 8:40am
Quoting Trader_V
iandekoker,

I think I speak for all of us when I say different strokes for different folks If Pivot Points are what work for you then so be it. Jst because Feb nor I utilize them does not mean that your mention of them is not valid or does not have value. They may fit the style of new traders who visit this thread.

As for your GBP trade:

I see what you are looking at but let me show you what I see. I am not saying you are wrong I just want to share how the chart looks through my eyes so we can have mutple views on things.

I have lised on this chart the peaks and throughs that exist. You can see the highest swing point in the Red box. this is the begining of either a correction or a trend reversal. Rmember the shorter TF's i.e. 4H make up what you enventually see on the Daily do weekly charts.

So I would not be looking to long this maket right now. In fact this is where I would be looking to short. Until Peak 2 is taken out to confirm the trend continuation I would be bearish at this point.

Again these are just my observtions. It is our differences of opionion about where the market is headed that make up the Bulls and the Bears
Ok i see what you mean and i cannot disagree with your analysis.

The market needs to take out the 2.0585 level first before we can go long. If that doesnt happen then we are heading back to 2.0361 level and even lower.
  • #643
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:12am Nov 19, 2007 9:12am
Quoting feb2865
If you look at the beginning of this thread - post # 2 I have some S/R lines in various areas of consolidation.


This is a chart of EUR/USD. It's been forming a coil I believe since 11/14/2007 . At time I am posting is around 9:00 AM so I really don't know what could be the end of day for this pair. Anyway, I formed a box. Obviously the market is going to break that box and push the price somewhere.

My question to all of you is......


How would you play this box?????


Peace
OK, take your exam. So, if I am aggressive, when E/U breaks 1.4707, then I will long, S/L 1.4575, if breaks 1.4595(better at 1.4580), then I will short, S/L 1.4727.

Right?

Peace to you also.
  • #644
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:20am Nov 19, 2007 9:20am
Quoting Trader_V
Ok I have enclosed the same box here but have zoomed in for a closer look.

Let's se what you other folks have to say.
Take your quiz too.

While your method follows 1-2-3 method based on daily chart. If E/U did break out your box and retraced back to some limit without destroying trend, then you entered. What about, if E/U continues but stop at the previous resistance (the price it starts to retrace)? Do you think that is no possible?

And, in your chart about G/U, why not we enter if G/U breaks peak #3? in my opinion, the down trend has been broken if this peak was broken up. Since we don't know foresight if that is a retracement to down-trend since Nov. 1, or will continue bigger timeframe up[-trend.

Thank you very much.
  • #645
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:38am Nov 19, 2007 9:38am
Any more takers??

Common' you out in the woods!!!!!you can express your opinions. This is a great community and we're here to learn from each other.

Peace

PD: as much as I want to comment I have to bite my tongue for now. LOL
Peace
  • #646
  • Nov 19, 2007 9:49am Nov 19, 2007 9:49am
i like to get the bigger picture first. So if i look at the weekly charts then the spinning top tells me that it would not be wise to go long.

So then i would go down to daily charts and see where i can get short. I see 2 possible short oppertunities. One is a bit risky as you would go short as soon as yellow trendline gets broken to the downside. The other trade is a bit safer but you give up a few pips. But you know that is would be an A-grade trade since you price has broken out of the box.
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  • #647
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:13am Nov 19, 2007 11:13am
Hi Feb and everybody.

This is my answer to your question. I'd rather let the market show me the way
first, before I commit any $$$ in any trade.

Henry
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  • #648
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:17am Nov 19, 2007 11:17am
Hello Feb2865, Trader_V and all, here is my thought on the future playout of EUR/USD.

Please note that I am far less experienced than both of you so feel free to comment on it if you see anything unsound in my thinking.

In fact, I so much like this thread that I have copy it on word and also made another word file with all important points of both of you and others as I am in process of devising a trading plan based on this great methodology.

Anyway, as I see it, the Euro is still in an up-trade so the best bet with regard of a high probabilty trade is concerned is to get to the long side. There is 2 ways to make it:

1) If Euro retraces to the region of 1.4400 - 1.4500 and it gives a nice V formation afterward, I will be watching to get long in that area using the 4 hour (to get a discount as Feb2865 mentionned). The 123 formation of Trader_V can be used there also.

2) If price brake the upper resistance line, I will wait for a retracement inside the box and will wait for another nice V formation with fractal to get long.

As you see, the key point transpiring in my though is patience and discipline to sit on my hands and not chase the market and wait for the high probability setup.

I really like this thread and want to thank both of you for the time that you take in share your great insght on the market.

P.S. I really like the interection of both of you as both of your approach give a great synergy and are truly complementary.

Thank again for your time and effort from the bottom of my heart.

Sincerely

Shreem
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  • #649
  • Edited 12:23pm Nov 19, 2007 11:53am | Edited 12:23pm
Let the candles point the way....

A break of the 1.4753 area on the daily...would see me go to a 4 hour looking for a retrace to the now support line...look for a continuation pattern or buy above an inside bar....

Reverse is true for a break to the downside.

That would be my action on this and thank you for your time.
  • #650
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:47pm Nov 19, 2007 12:47pm
Hi David,

Thanks for the questions.

Could you please post a chart explaining your question to the E/U pair?

As for the GBP yes you could very well go long on a break of Peak 3. providing that the lowest swing low had not been broken. I also want to draw your attention to the magenta line that shows where previous support has now become resistance. This is yet another reason why I think it will go lower in the near term.

If peak 3 were broken and a long position taken I would express caution as peak 2 was being approached.

Good questions and good analysis.

Thanks!

edit - forgot to add the stinking chart...duh

Quoting Green_David
Take your quiz too.

While your method follows 1-2-3 method based on daily chart. If E/U did break out your box and retraced back to some limit without destroying trend, then you entered. What about, if E/U continues but stop at the previous resistance (the price it starts to retrace)? Do you think that is no possible?

And, in your chart about G/U, why not we enter if G/U breaks peak #3? in my opinion, the down trend has been broken if this peak was broken up. Since we don't know foresight if that is a retracement to down-trend since Nov. 1, or will continue bigger timeframe up[-trend.

Thank you very much.
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Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #651
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:52pm Nov 19, 2007 12:52pm
I dont' know if anyone is watching it but....

If you remember my analysis from last week on this pair and my trade take a look at what it's doing now. This is an example of how learning price action can really help improve your trading.

Cheers!
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #652
  • Edited 4:35pm Nov 19, 2007 1:11pm | Edited 4:35pm
Here's my take on how I will play the EUR/USD ...

Like ian, I would have to take a peek at the Weekly chart to get a bigger picture.

Since the Weekly chart has a Fractal and two candlesticks that haven't broken it yet, it's telling me to be cautious for a possible retracement.

On the Daily, a 2nd Fractal has been created (ORANGE arrow), so for me, it nullifies the first V-Formation Fractal (GREEN arrow), thus I wait for the 2nd Fractal to form the V-Formation setup ... so I further sit waiting for the bus.

Now, let's say that in the next day (or whenever the 3rd candle forms) the V-Formation criteria is met (3rd candle breaks previous candle's high), because the Weekly is showing what it is, it could turn to the downside pretty quickly.

However, I'm trading mechanically on the V-Formation setup, so once the V-Formation criteria is met, I am going to enter a position at some point (meaning, wait for a discount on the 4hr, or get in a the best price at the time if it doesn't look like the 4hr is going to give me that discount).

*edited - I should mention and add (regarding the above paragraph) ... granted my SL isn't more than 100 pips from entry point. If I can't get in with a 100 pip SL (although 50 pips would be better, due to what I am about to explain below), I won't enter. That's the most I will risk on this particular trade due to the Weekly chart.

Okay, so because this bus may have a flat tire at any time, I don't know, I can't actually predict the future (well, not yet anyway, I still haven't opened that psychic center , but the Weekly is sure giving some warnings to be cautious, so here's what my strategy is ...

Remember I previously mentioned that I will be doing that "revolving" position? Not only does a "revolving" position benefit for banking some shorter-term profits within the longer-term movement, but it's also going to (hopefully) provide me some amount of safeguard in case of a sudden retracement (such as the Weekly might be indicating).

So, I enter my position when the V-Formation criteria is met, then I will TP of 1/2 my position at a fixed 50 or so pips (I will keep my eye on the 4hr to gauge this, but from studying the 4hr charts, 50 pips hit pretty frequently).

My other half of my original position is still riding the trend, gathering pips. I then wait for another V-Formation to enter another "revolving" position (if one presents itself - * edited: although, I might use the 4hr charts for the "revolving" position, I'll have to test this).

If it looks like the trend is taking a turn, then my 4hr should show that pretty clearly and I will exit all positions then.

So, anyway, this is my strategy/plan for how I will be working my trades.

For now, E/U is clearly in a consolidation, so must watch tumbleweeds and wait, wait, wait for the bus ...
Attached Image
  • #653
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:56pm Nov 19, 2007 1:56pm
Quoting Trader_V
I dont' know if anyone is watching it but....

If you remember my analysis from last week on this pair and my trade take a look at what it's doing now. This is an example of how learning price action can really help improve your trading.

Cheers!
V

could you bring the link upfront here from that analysis please??

If you could explain between then and now will be nice

Peace
Peace
  • #654
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:06pm Nov 19, 2007 2:06pm
Quoting shreem
Hello Feb2865, Trader_V and all, here is my thought on the future playout of EUR/USD.

Please note that I am far less experienced than both of you so feel free to comment on it if you see anything unsound in my thinking.

In fact, I so much like this thread that I have copy it on word and also made another word file with all important points of both of you and others as I am in process of devising a trading plan based on this great methodology.

Anyway, as I see it, the Euro is still in an up-trade so the best bet with regard of a high probabilty trade is concerned is to get to the long side. There is 2 ways to make it:

1) If Euro retraces to the region of 1.4400 - 1.4500 and it gives a nice V formation afterward, I will be watching to get long in that area using the 4 hour (to get a discount as Feb2865 mentionned). The 123 formation of Trader_V can be used there also.

2) If price brake the upper resistance line, I will wait for a retracement inside the box and will wait for another nice V formation with fractal to get long.

As you see, the key point transpiring in my though is patience and discipline to sit on my hands and not chase the market and wait for the high probability setup.

I really like this thread and want to thank both of you for the time that you take in share your great insght on the market.

P.S. I really like the interection of both of you as both of your approach give a great synergy and are truly complementary.

Thank again for your time and effort from the bottom of my heart.

Sincerely

Shreem
If you feel less experience, I have to say, with this analysis you just made, you're in a right path. That will naturally build a self-confidence on your further analysis.

Peace
Peace
  • #655
  • Edited 2:30pm Nov 19, 2007 2:17pm | Edited 2:30pm
Sure thing my friend.

Here is the series of posts I made for the USD/JPY

Post # 349 Daily Chart view
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=349

Post # 350 4H Chart view and entry
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=350

Post # 467 Analysis and trade followup with Word Doc
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=467

Post # 506 Trade follow up and anaylisys
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=506

Post # 619 Final update

So here you go. The quote belw was the last status of the trade on Friday. I closed my trade at 110.80 which gave me +35 pips. Reasons for the exit were due to the momentum at which prices were moving upwards and thefact that I did not want to be in a position at market open Oon Sunday.

Notice also how I talked about the market posibly showing a reaction the the reisitance level and a possible continuation to the downwad movement. Now take a look at the curent chart in your platform and you will see the long wicks left by Friadays action.

So from here I look for another place to enter either the same pair if the market shows its cards and I will look for other opportunities to trade as well.

There you go that is the whole trade history.

I hope it helps some of you folks in some small way

Quoting feb2865
V

could you bring the link upfront here from that analysis please??

If you could explain between then and now will be nice

Peace
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #656
  • Nov 19, 2007 3:23pm Nov 19, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting feb2865
If you feel less experience, I have to say, with this analysis you just made, you're in a right path. That will naturally build a self-confidence on your further analysis.

Peace

Hello Dear Feb2865, thank for the nice comment. I am sure that by following this thread closely and absorbing as much as I can that I will build my confidence. I have a good understanding of the basic of forex about candlestick, pivot, fibos, trendline, chart patterns and others.

However, even after 2 years of trading, I am still a total rookee about having a trading plan and consistently following it.

That is why I am so happy to have found this thread and the way you and Trader_V analyse the market. It really give me the extra boost that I needed to put my pants and begin to dissect a trading plan, be patient and consistently and methodically follow my plan without deviation.

I feel very much obliged to both of you and to others great posters of this thread and I will definitely pay the price with great pleasure of your 1st post of this thread.

Sincerely

Shreem
  • #657
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:26pm Nov 19, 2007 5:26pm
Quoting Trader_V
Hi David,

Thanks for the questions.

Could you please post a chart explaining your question to the E/U pair?

As for the GBP yes you could very well go long on a break of Peak 3. providing that the lowest swing low had not been broken. I also want to draw your attention to the magenta line that shows where previous support has now become resistance. This is yet another reason why I think it will go lower in the near term.

If peak 3 were broken and a long position taken I would express caution as peak 2 was being approached.

Good questions and good analysis.

Thanks!

edit - forgot to add the stinking chart...duh
Thanks for you reply. Forget the questions about E/U, I made it over complicated.

BTW, U/J is 109.7 now, suppose you didn't close your short position, there would be 100 pips more. Yesterday I shorted E/J at 162.12 after +56 pips profit, I closed it. Now it is 160.92.

Sometimes, I am wondering it seems that if I am willing give back more, the market will reward me more.
  • #658
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:35pm Nov 19, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting Green_David
Sometimes, I am wondering it seems that if I am willing give back more, the market will reward me more.
LOL, David, here's how I look at it ... never look back on what you could have made. Always look at it as, you made the best decision for the situation at the time.

Looking back at the "could haves, should haves, would haves" only leads to despair and beating yourself up, lol.

If we come from abundance ("no problem, there will be lots more to come") rather than scarcity ("dang, I left too much on the table"), then our future trades will pocket us many more pips

So, yes, your attitude is the right attitude ... but you don't have to do it on purpose :, lol!
  • #659
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:37pm Nov 19, 2007 5:37pm
Actually I am back in on the U/J and up 107 no 108 no 106 stupid thing keeps fluctuating...lol BUt Shhhhhh..... Don't tell anyone.

The same bar that caused me to get out of the trade provided a hint to get back into the trade.

HOWEVER, I did not want to get into that here because I really don't want to confuse anyone this early on. Feb has a plan for how he wants to present price action in this thread and to be honest everyone who is following this thread should only be concerned at getting really really good with this part of the trading methodology before adding on the additional trading methods.

Trust me learning just this one methodology can provide you with an amazing trading experience if you give it a real chance and put in the real effort to learn it which you folks here are clearly doing.

Nice trade on the E/J by the way. Would you mind sharing your example here in the thread for all to see?

Put up a chart that shows your reasoning and your plan for managing the trade.


Quoting Green_David
Thanks for you reply. Forget the questions about E/U, I made it over complicated.

BTW, U/J is 109.7 now, suppose you didn't close your short position, there would be 100 pips more. Yesterday I shorted E/J at 162.12 after +56 pips profit, I closed it. Now it is 160.92.

Sometimes, I am wondering it seems that if I am willing give back more, the market will reward me more.
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #660
  • Nov 19, 2007 6:38pm Nov 19, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting Trader_V

Nice trade on the E/J by the way. Would you mind sharing your example here in the thread for all to see?

Put up a chart that shows your reasoning and your plan for managing the trade.
Thank you.

I opened E/J short positions using the same method as yours, i.e. 1-2-3, but mine is based on 1H or 15m time frame. I closed because I lost patience and doubted a double bottom on 1H may be formed.


Just as you said, I am here to learn Feb's and your long-term trading based on 4H an daily. So, I'd better not post the chart since it is different than Feb's idea in terms of time frame. (You may check: around GMT+4 Nov. 19, there was a valid 1-2-3 formation on 1H chart.)

It is a kind of day-trading. Better not get other people confused. Sorry, sir.
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