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To all the 1K club members!

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 19, 2007 11:35am Nov 19, 2007 11:35am
A question for all experienced traders, how can i determine the trend for the day?.
I have read TA books about trend lines. I have looked at moving averages, I have looked at Fibs. I am still not very clear about the trend for the day.
I am hoping for some one to guide me. I am prepared to do the hard work.
Any advice, tip, help would be greatly appreciated.
  • #2
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:48am Nov 19, 2007 11:48am
this is "million dollars" question
  • #3
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:57am Nov 19, 2007 11:57am
Quoting denonline
this is "million dollars" question
"You do not ask, you do not get."
As they say.
  • #4
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:02pm Nov 19, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting doubledutch
A question for all experienced traders, how can i determine the trend for the day?.
I have read TA books about trend lines. I have looked at moving averages, I have looked at Fibs. I am still not very clear about the trend for the day.
I am hoping for some one to guide me. I am prepared to do the hard work.
Any advice, tip, help would be greatly appreciated.
It's been quite a while since I've posted on this forum, thoough I still visit the site nearly every day. Your signature would indicate that you've joined FF relatively recently. How long have you been trading? If you have been trading for less than a year, it's possible you may not even know enough to ask the right questions. In addition, if you've been trading for less than a year and you're already asking for someone to give you answers, it might be that you haven't even done any of the "hard work" you claim to be prepared to do. To be quite honest, by the time you get to the point where you can appreciate and understand the advice you would recieve from some of the senior members in this forum, you might not even need it!
  • #5
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:11pm Nov 19, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting doubledutch
A question for all experienced traders, how can i determine the trend for the day?.
I have read TA books about trend lines. I have looked at moving averages, I have looked at Fibs. I am still not very clear about the trend for the day.
I am hoping for some one to guide me. I am prepared to do the hard work.
Any advice, tip, help would be greatly appreciated.
I will take a shot at this one. You first must identify the trend, period. Go to the longer TF charts and look at the big picture. I would advise drawing some Trend Lines on 4hr charts that encompass as many days as possible. Early on in the trading day you may only be able to have an educated guess based on Fibonacci projection. It is my opinion however, only price action will determine your direction and you want to trade the break out when it happens. There are no fancy custom indicators that will help you and it will only be a knowledge of the basics: Fibonacci, Price Action, Support and Resistance, Trend Lines, Fundamentals, and a good Money Management that will help you to succeed in Forex.

PT
Forex Trader
Zone Breakout Method
  • #6
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:15pm Nov 19, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting doubledutch
A question for all experienced traders, how can i determine the trend for the day?.
I have read TA books about trend lines. I have looked at moving averages, I have looked at Fibs. I am still not very clear about the trend for the day.
I am hoping for some one to guide me. I am prepared to do the hard work.
Any advice, tip, help would be greatly appreciated.

since oanda is still off, i got time,..,..well i use Parabolic sar and stohastic to for my entries,...and fibos for tps, Mas i like to whatch many times its wise to buy below them, and sell above them,..
its just money
  • #7
  • Edited 12:35pm Nov 19, 2007 12:22pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting SisterCurare
It's been quite a while since I've posted on this forum, thoough I still visit the site nearly every day. Your signature would indicate that you've joined FF relatively recently. How long have you been trading? If you have been trading for less than a year, it's possible you may not even know enough to ask the right questions. In addition, if you've been trading for less than a year and you're already asking for someone to give you answers, it might be that you haven't even done any of the "hard work" you claim to be prepared to do. To be quite honest, by the time you get to the point where you can appreciate and understand the advice you would recieve from some of the senior members in this forum, you might not even need it!
Thank you for the wise advice and judgement.
Everything in life is relative. How much is enough?. How many books do i need to read to qualify for the "hard work done badge"? How many sites do i need to visit?. Perhaps your observation is correct, due to my inexperience i have asked the above question. Or perhaps the reason for the above question could be due to the fact that i am a slow learner.
So as not to beat around the bush as they say in England, trading experience in the Stockmarkets more than 10 years. Learning forex, under 2 years, trading live 3 months, trading profitably consistently 0 weeks.
I hope this qualifies me for some sort of help.
Again, what i am not looking for is how to draw a trend line or a fib. What i am looking for is concepts to ponder, chew and digest.
  • #8
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:28pm Nov 19, 2007 12:28pm
Quoting PowerTrader
I will take a shot at this one. You first must identify the trend, period. Go to the longer TF charts and look at the big picture. I would advise drawing some Trend Lines on 4hr charts that encompass as many days as possible. Early on in the trading day you may only be able to have an educated guess based on Fibonacci projection. It is my opinion however, only price action will determine your direction and you want to trade the break out when it happens. There are no fancy custom indicators that will help you and it will only be a knowledge of the basics: Fibonacci, Price Action, Support and Resistance, Trend Lines, Fundamentals, and a good Money Management that will help you to succeed in Forex.

PT
Forex Trader
Thank you Power Trader. I have just seen your thread, it looks very helpful. Let me read it in its entirety, from a superficial glance you expound the above on your thread.
  • #9
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:33pm Nov 19, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting de123
since oanda is still off, i got time,..,..well i use Parabolic sar and stohastic to for my entries,...and fibos for tps, Mas i like to whatch many times its wise to buy below them, and sell above them,..
Thank you very much for taking the time to give me your views. I really appreciate it. However, i am not a big fan of indicators. I do not use them. What i am hoping to achieve is train my eye and get a feel for the market. Now i appreciate that this will take time. Thats ok i have all the time in the world to learn and empower myself.
Still thank you for your input.
  • #10
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:38pm Nov 19, 2007 12:38pm
Quoting doubledutch
Thank you for the wise advice and judgement.
Everything in life is relative. How much is enough?. how many books do i need to read to qualify for the "hard work done badge"? How many sites do i need to visit?. Perhaps your observation is correct, due to my inexperience i have askedthe above question. Or perhaps the reason for the above question could be due to the fact that i am a slow learner.
So as not to beat around the bush as they say in England, trading experience in the Stockmarkets more than 10 years. Learning forex, under 2 years, trading live 3 months, trading profitably consistently 0 weeks.
I hope this qualifies me for some sort of help.
Again, what i am not looking for is how to draw a trend line or a fib. What i am looking for is concepts to ponder, chew and digest.
Here is a concept to ponder. Your original question asked "how do you i determine the daily trend". The only way to determine the daily trend is after there is enough price action to determine a direction and by then, it may be too late to do anything with your knowledge. I guess my point is nobody knows what a given day will bring. There is only probability and outcome. How we make money in Forex is by catching the move.

Good luck,

PT
Zone Breakout Method
  • #11
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:51pm Nov 19, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting PowerTrader
Here is a concept to ponder. Your original question asked "how do you i determine the daily trend". The only way to determine the daily trend is after there is enough price action to determine a direction and by then, it may be too late to do anything with your knowledge. I guess my point is nobody knows what a given day will bring. There is only probability and outcome. How we make money in Forex is by catching the move.

Good luck,

PT
Thank you Power Trader. The above insight is the sort of help, advice that i was looking for. You have said something quite profound. Perhaps i have been barking up the wrong tree. After all the idea is to determine the trend to increase the probability of a successful trade. It is no good determining the trend if it can not be used to trade. I guess back to the drawing board for me.
  • #12
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:06pm Nov 19, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting doubledutch
After all the idea is to determine the trend to increase the probability of a successful trade. It is no good determining the trend if it can not be used to trade. I guess back to the drawing board for me.
What happened to Newton's First Law?

Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion ....

There is a higher probability that the trend will remain in place then there is for a potential reversal. Trading with probabilites is the best you can hope for. You take the trade and let money management sort out the winners and losers. Trends last for days, weeks, months, and years. It is much safer to assume a trend can last one more day than it is to trade against it.

I would do a little research on this rather than consider one opinion and abandoning what you've learned.
  • #13
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:24pm Nov 19, 2007 1:24pm
Greetings Phil.

Are you looking for a few pips/trade, or will you hold a position for days? Are you exiting based on a preconcieved SL, or do you exit when "it feels right?"

-TD

Quoting philmcgrew
What happened to Newton's First Law?

Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion ....

There is a higher probability that the trend will remain in place then there is for a potential reversal. Trading with probabilites is the best you can hope for. You take the trade and let money management sort out the winners and losers. Trends last for days, weeks, months, and years. It is much safer to assume a trend can last one more day than it is to trade against it.

I would do a little research on this rather than consider one opinion and abandoning what you've learned.
  • #14
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:43pm Nov 19, 2007 1:43pm
Quoting tdion
Greetings Phil.

Are you looking for a few pips/trade, or will you hold a position for days? Are you exiting based on a preconcieved SL, or do you exit when "it feels right?"

-TD
TD, I primarily trade off of the 15 min charts and will hold for a few hours and some off of the 240 min charts which are held for a few days. I use stoplosses below/above previous swing pivots and have no preconceived exit until told to do so by my system. If I got out when it felt right I wouldn't have very much money.
  • #15
  • Nov 19, 2007 8:41pm Nov 19, 2007 8:41pm
A very simple way to glance at a chart and determine if it is in a trend and the direction, is to simply ask yourself if it is making higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.

If you want to get more complicated you can draw trendlines, however trendlines are more an indicator for determining when a trend is over ie. trendline break, vs what direction the trend is actually in.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #16
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:35am Nov 20, 2007 4:35am
[quote=philmcgrew

I would do a little research on this rather than consider one opinion and abandoning what you've learned.[/quote]
philmcgrew, i have enjoyed reading your posts on various subjects. Your thinking and expression of your thoughts is very clear and helpful. Keep up the excellent work that you do on this site.
However, in my case Powertrader has given me something to ponder and chew. After giving it sufficient time i will know whether to digest or spit.
Many thanks for your input.
  • #17
  • Last Post: Nov 23, 2007 8:44am Nov 23, 2007 8:44am
Quoting philmcgrew
If I got out when it felt right I wouldn't have very much money.

Tell me about it.....I am too chicken at times. This is why I typically will trade higher time frames, AND LEAVE.

These turn out to be my best trades.


Clockwork
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