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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,081
  • Nov 18, 2007 4:47pm Nov 18, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting Wolf.
The significance of 224 I believe (funnymental reasons aside) most probably stems from the consolidation and lows going back to 1986 - 1991 period and help from the near touch of a high 310806. (see Monthly chart)
Thanks Wolf. I always appreciate your analysis and you tend see things that I miss.

I can now see where 224 may have originated and I am of the opinion that it is a temporary up movement. I have looked at the monthly and I am convinced that strong support sits at 221/220. 224 seems fairly strong when considering that price bounced 800 pips off that level. If this second bounce goes much higher than the low 228 region then I may start to consider it a reversal so I will wait and see. I am expecting one more drop to my reversal level of 221/220.

Thanks for sharing!
  • #14,082
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:00pm Nov 18, 2007 5:00pm
Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell!

GBP/JPY to go way, way, WAY down there (and the other JPY crosses too)

Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell, Sell!
  • #14,083
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:01pm Nov 18, 2007 5:01pm
Care to give a reason for you enthusiastic bearish call?
  • #14,084
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:48pm Nov 18, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting imbiber
Care to give a reason for you enthusiastic bearish call?
Like a lot of people, he's not too impressed by what happened on Friday. Have a look at one of his earlier posts: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=56639

I'm not sure if shouting SELL on this thread is really going top help but I admire the effort. Also, it makes my analysis look pretty sophisticated.
Gone to a better place
  • #14,085
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:38pm Nov 18, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting smikester
Like a lot of people, he's not too impressed by what happened on Friday. Have a look at one of his earlier posts: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=56639

I'm not sure if shouting SELL on this thread is really going top help but I admire the effort. Also, it makes my analysis look pretty sophisticated.
Thanks for the link.

I am seeing a move up to some key retracement levels, but will not see 241 again, that was the right shoulder forming, with a rejection of the attempt to go higher.

I am planning a few entries short as we get nice movement upwards once again.

My target would be the 219 low once it stalls at the upward fib levels.

No hurry to short with the 4hour being bullish, but don't forget to take a look at the monthly candle that is forming a bearish move down.

I think will for sure test that 219 area, maybe spike through it by 175 pips and find the next support at 217.50 area.

No entries yet, must come up to me for my shorts.

Ken
  • #14,086
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:49pm Nov 18, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting monarch
Thanks for the link.

I am seeing a move up to some key retracement levels, but will not see 241 again, that was the right shoulder forming, with a rejection of the attempt to go higher.

I am planning a few entries short as we get nice movement upwards once again.

My target would be the 219 low once it stalls at the upward fib levels.

No hurry to short with the 4hour being bullish, but don't forget to take a look at the monthly candle that is forming a bearish move down.

I think will for sure test that 219 area, maybe spike through it by 175 pips and find the next support at 217.50 area.

No entries yet, must come up to me for my shorts.

Ken
Hi guys do you think we will see 230.00 area before we go back to 219-is?
Work smart not hard
  • #14,087
  • Nov 18, 2007 8:22pm Nov 18, 2007 8:22pm
Quoting sony
Hi guys do you think we will see 230.00 area before we go back to 219-is?
I personally believe we will see the 230 area before the move down.

My first short entry is at 230.50 and will scale more shorts all the way up to 237, which would be the ultimate high before we go down to the 219/220 area.

It will take some time, but being patient and careful is part of the strategy, just let the price come to you, then jump in and enjoy the ride down.

Maybe Zoran or Wolf have different opinions, they will let us now here soon.

ken
  • #14,088
  • Nov 18, 2007 8:23pm Nov 18, 2007 8:23pm
Personally I see to today as a bull day. I have support at the 13 day moving average in the one hour at 227 and four hour 226.5. The daily is very oversold with a rsi still below 50 and momentum 8c pointing up. I would look for buys around the 226-227 range and profit targets in the 230-231 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp11-18.gif Size: 14 KB
Winning Trades: 1 Losing Trades: 0 Profit in pips: +40
  • #14,089
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:56am Nov 19, 2007 12:56am
Quoting monarch
No hurry to short ...
No entries yet, must come up to me for my shorts.

Ken
I agree. I'll probably stay out for now. My analysis was short term - 15 minute chart you'll notice. Your analysis is much appreciated.
Gone to a better place
  • #14,090
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:06am Nov 19, 2007 1:06am
Sorry for the "shouting"-check a bunch of my threads over the last few weeks. I've written alot about the housing and credit situations and about the possibility of recession.

I'm working on another article now that will summarize what alot of the major economists from the leading investment banks and brokerages are saying-and what people like Nouriel Roubini have to say as well.
  • #14,091
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:45am Nov 19, 2007 1:45am
Good morning well its looking kinda short right now got stopped out of my long overnight.

Just shorted shorted at 226.65. Tight stop though in case it turns around.
  • #14,092
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:48am Nov 19, 2007 1:48am
Quoting Wolf.
Good morning well its looking kinda short right now got stopped out of my long overnight.

Just shorted shorted at 226.65. Tight stop though in case it turns around.
Nice buying spot?!
Work smart not hard
  • #14,093
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:48am Nov 19, 2007 1:48am
my analysis say that geppy will hit 226.85 or higher before it declines.
  • #14,094
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:50am Nov 19, 2007 1:50am
Quoting Adwa
my analysis say that geppy will hit 226.85 or higher before it declines.
I think here is enough bulls to get us back still
Work smart not hard
  • #14,095
  • Edited 2:17am Nov 19, 2007 2:00am | Edited 2:17am
Quoting sony
Nice buying spot?!
Hi Sony you are very likley correct monthly S2 and good support in this area, I played a short on 5 m price action and a reject of the daily pivot have taken half off at +15.

Will add close or maybe reverse depending on price action.

Set ups like these often turn into larger moves so I always take them win or loose.

Edit:closed +41 second 1/2

Edit:short again 226.63
  • #14,096
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:04am Nov 19, 2007 2:04am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Sony you are very likley correct monthly S2 and good support in this area, I played a short on 5 m price action and a reject of the daily pivot have taken half off at +15.

Will add close or maybe reverse depending on price action.

Set ups like these often turn into larger moves so I always take them win or loose.
Hi yes...Will see. But i think we will see 227-228 area today again
Work smart not hard
  • #14,097
  • Nov 19, 2007 3:09am Nov 19, 2007 3:09am
From my earlier post...

"The retrace of the rally off Fridays lows has stalled...

UJ at its 61.8% retrace, 110.36 at 01:00 est; cable at its 50% just after LO at 2.0450 and GJ at LO and its 50% at 226.15.

Its too early to say if this will be the start of a rally, UJ holding > 110.70, GU > 2.0500 and GJ > 227 would be the initial confirmation - until then the short term trend remains down."

Now an hour after LO and GU and GJ have just retested their earlier lows, BUT UJ has held its small uptrend support on the 5 min from its 01:00 low, so no real change - the retest was with higher momentum, but there's not a lot of volume...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,098
  • Nov 19, 2007 3:22am Nov 19, 2007 3:22am
Charts says it all.
Blue lines are the trend lines
White lined are the resistance lines
red lines are the support lines

I do not predict the price to go anywhere, when it touches one of my lines, i'll get in..
good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 16 KB
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #14,099
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:36am Nov 19, 2007 5:36am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks Wolf. I always appreciate your analysis and you tend see things that I miss.

I can now see where 224 may have originated and I am of the opinion that it is a temporary up movement. I have looked at the monthly and I am convinced that strong support sits at 221/220. 224 seems fairly strong when considering that price bounced 800 pips off that level. If this second bounce goes much higher than the low 228 region then I may start to consider it a reversal so I will wait and see. I am expecting one more drop to my reversal level of 221/220.

Thanks for sharing!
Nothing has really changed with my position above. I didn't expect the bounce off 224 to be so big but I expect price to continue to target 221/220. My reversal point is 220.52 but I'll scale into longs and scale out of shorts around that area (as mentioned 221/220).

Since price has not broken the low 228 region, I am still biased to the short side and will continue to hold.
  • #14,100
  • Nov 19, 2007 6:59am Nov 19, 2007 6:59am
lookin at daily tf , if we range for the rest of the day , the short term (at least for the rest of the week ) would be a bullish trend , gettin to around 230 ... , james16 candle type ... wer the highs are same and the lower is higher , indicating an uptrend ...
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