The System (Irony included) | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Point pivot trend line and fibo system (Semafor included) 14 replies

Indicator fix...code included.. WHATS WRONG?!? 4 replies

An interesting read - Daily and 60 Min Strategy - Charts included 3 replies

Attachments: The System (Irony included)
Exit Attachments

The System (Irony included)

  • #581
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:29pm Nov 17, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting feb2865
observe hammers. Also is good to pay attention at shooting stars.

Just remember, I used the following words "observe" and "pay attention"
The idea is to be careful .
AHA!! Card counting, I knew it! :
  • #582
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:29pm Nov 17, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting leighsww
AHA!! Card counting, I knew it! :
LOL!!!!
Peace
  • #583
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:34pm Nov 17, 2007 11:34pm
Quoting feb2865
I am curious, why you said there's hope for you after all???
Wow, you must really be blasted :

You know what, I'm not gonna tell you and let you ponder that one for awhile, since Ms. Shiraz is coaxing you nicely tonight, lol :
  • #584
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:37pm Nov 17, 2007 11:37pm
You must be referring to Jacob's creek....
Good wine without any indicators....

Quoting feb2865
Antra

if you get to read this post, I am having an aussie shiraz this weekend. I can't remember the name I believe is Jacob's something, kinda hard to think now LOL All I can say is that the wine is doing it's job real good.



Peace
  • #585
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:38pm Nov 17, 2007 11:38pm
Quoting leighsww
Wow, you must really be blasted :

You know what, I'm not gonna tell you and let you ponder that one for awhile, since Ms. Shiraz is coaxing you nicely tonight, lol :

Yeah I have to give up for tonight. I can't fight this no more.

Good karma to everybody in this thread.

See U guys tomorrow

peace
Peace
  • #586
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:40pm Nov 17, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting milan47
You must be referring to Jacob's creek....
Good wine without any indicators....
Yes that's the one. A very good wine indeed. Not that expensive.

Now I am zipping It...Promise

Peace
Peace
  • #587
  • Edited 2:31am Nov 18, 2007 1:59am | Edited 2:31am
Quoting fti
in reality it is being managed around the clock on a "on call mode", standby mode, if you like. For banks , that does not operate a 24 hr crew, they pass "wake up call zones" to their active branches.
Somehow, I could understand your post a little better this time, lol. You didn't use as many lingo that went over my head, lol.

Can you please explain more specifically what you mean by the above quote?

Please, you need to speak really simple terms when you explaining to me, because it's evident, I truly am way out of your league, so much of the lingo, I am lost. Sorry

Wow, you are a very big player, I can see.

*edited - I edited my post after I saw you edited/added info to yours.
  • #588
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:43am Nov 18, 2007 2:43am
Wow, this is fascinating stuff, lol.

You know, I read many posts by experienced traders mentioning "the big boys," I guess you are (or are a part of) one of them, no?
  • #589
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:50am Nov 18, 2007 2:50am
Quoting feb2865
observe hammers. Also is good to pay attention at shooting stars.

Just remember, I used the following words "observe" and "pay attention"
The idea is to be careful .

Peace
Obviously, you are not drunken and paid attention to my question. Thank you a lot. I did see hammers on daily chart on 17 Aug and 22 Oct for JPY crosses.



A big red bar (with no or small pigtails nor tails, and engulfed previous several bars) after a long-time uptrend or a big green bar after a long time downtrend, have similar indications as hammer/shooting star? That's my observation.

Thank you again.
  • #590
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:13am Nov 18, 2007 3:13am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
I almost choked on my lunch when I was informed of the remarks made by a certain "James Bond". I am at mom. off home base and vacationing in a cool highland north of singapore.

@ clockwork71
... ...
Good Fortune to your Trading.
regards
Well, seems some "communications" going on.

Thank you for your reply to my questions. And I am glad you know Pu Tong Hua.

On Friday GMT08:00, E/U went up first touching 1.4645, then suddenly went down and broken previous support 1.4610. To my surprise, the price got support at 1.4590, and couldn't be broken for three times. It seems that an "invisible hand" didn't want it to go down further.

So if a stop loss set up at 4590, 20 pips away from 4610, that order would get burned any way and caused a loss or a long position lost for nothing!

OK, if I set stop loss mentally for a long position on discretion, a lot of times I would see different support levels hoping the price will cover the loss finally, but those levels kept going down. Finally, after -50 pip become -200, I woke up and closed the positions.

Setting up a stop loss is really an issue. I think it is the biggest issue in trading.

Thank you.

P.S. We, small players, got price from our platform such as OANDA, FXCM etc. These are retail brokers and customers basically trade against these market makers. Maybe they hedge their counter positions in Interbank, maybe not at all -- just to take advantage of amateurs like casino.
  • #591
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:16am Nov 18, 2007 3:16am
Quoting fti
Size really doesn't matter
ACK, be careful, you're talkin' in the naked thread, you know :

Quoting fti
remember "Nick Leeson"
I had to Google him, lol--> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson

You edit your posts, as much as me (I gotta always go back and reread in case you've added something, lol)

Quoting fti
PS: I actually wonder about, where your FX prices are coming from.
I got a gut feel it's no where near interbank because of marketable size.
So who's actually making markets? any ideas?
My ECN broker won't give out their liquidity providers names, but there's a representative that posts here (Justin) and he mentions things about them, so you might want to check out these posts --> http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=2410610

The 2nd post from the top has a routing chart and it shows "Interbank FX Market" on it.

* Edited - Wait a minute ... are you like maybe a spy http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/yeahright.gif trying to get info out of us? http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/shutup3.gif

:
  • #592
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:29am Nov 18, 2007 3:29am
Quoting leighsww
ACK, be careful, you're talkin' in the naked thread, you know :

:
Well, some kind of adult thing.
  • #593
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:29am Nov 18, 2007 3:29am
Quoting Green_David
Well, seems some "communications" going on.
LOL, David, you are really a GOOD HEARTED and CARING man, you know that?
  • #594
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:32am Nov 18, 2007 3:32am
Quoting leighsww
LOL, David, you are really a GOOD HEARTED and CARING man, you know that?
Well, thank you. Very diplomatic, and politically right? I learned this from my American teacher Mary.
  • #595
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:40am Nov 18, 2007 3:40am
Quoting Green_David
Well, thank you. Very diplomatic, and politically right? I learned this from my American teacher Mary.
Well, she taught you well, my dear

Okay, I'm done for tonight. See you all tomorrow!

Thanks, fti, for sharing your amazing experience/expertise with us
  • #596
  • Nov 18, 2007 4:34am Nov 18, 2007 4:34am
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
Just to say that I deal with trading floors all the time (I work for a financial trading application company on fixed income/equity/comms/futures markets) and fti is really helping me translate what I know from those desks into usable information for FX, and to help me understand some of the finer points from the conversations I hear!

A very good thread, even through the disagreements there's a lot to take on board.

Thanks!
-TPO.
  • #597
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:46am Nov 18, 2007 6:46am
Quoting leighsww
Ian,

I have to agree with feb, cuz I used S/R previously for SL (but of course, I was trading short-term/shorter-timeframes), and studying the charts using feb's method, using the previous Daily candlestick seems to have good/safe results. I agree, you have to stay within your means, so if the previous candle is too large a SL, best to look for another trade, or wait for discount enough to make it safe.

I thanked you for your contribution to this thread, but for me, I'm still sticking to feb's method.

Maybe you can try this just so you can quantify your own results ...

When you place your trades, do a paralleled paper-trade using feb's method and see which gives you a better win ratio.

That's the only way to truly test which method has better results.

Otherwise, everything is hypothetical which system works better until we actually do side-by-side testing to quantify the results.

Anyway, just a suggestion

Let us know the results after a month or so of testing. Thank you!
Well it is different strokes for different folks. Some people like to play with bigger stop losses and other prefer smaller stop losses. All depends what your goals are.
  • #598
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:56am Nov 18, 2007 6:56am
Quoting fti
PS: Just FYI

No interbank dealer/trader ever place stop loss order.

That is a wild assumption to make


Only Corp and hnc (high networth customers) request interbank to watch stops,
Actually lots of revenue from that activity.
In the interbank all transaction is Cash valued immediate.
Most dealers are delta neatral or flat most of the time, mostly delta neatral.

(((((erratta : should read squared most of the time, not flat))))))

Ok i have no idea what you just said

I think brokers are misimforming customers to protect overlosses situation.
If you place stops, interbank will hunt you out. All we have to do is to bum quote once each and you would be "dead in the water"

That is an urban legend. No broker is after your stop loss on a 10K-50K account. They are after big money. I dont know why traders on FF think they are Big time players and brokers are out to get them. Fact is once you open an account with a broker you only have a 5% chance of being successful. So there is no need for them to hunt you down. Time will do it for them. The brokers dont care about us. We are a drop in the ocean. But if you wanna flatter yourself to think the broker are hunting your stop losses then it is cool with me

To beclear watch "ASAP" page on reuters and you will see it.
Indicative market is quoted in 10pips.

regards
Thx for the post but i TOTALLY disagree
  • #599
  • Nov 18, 2007 8:25am Nov 18, 2007 8:25am
Quoting iandekoker
Thx for the post but i TOTALLY disagree
I agree with your post 100% I see a lot of myth in what you have exposed so far.

Fti I appreciate your post and everything But I would like to end this discussion here. No offense please but I will like to get back on track to the original intention of this thread. If you want to start a discussion about brokers and stuff, I suggest you can start another thread and we can discuss this matter there. Again, if you have something to contribute on the subject, you're more than welcome.

Thanks in advance

Peace
Peace
  • #600
  • Nov 18, 2007 9:04am Nov 18, 2007 9:04am
Quoting ownshook
Risk to reward ratio was brought up in this thread and I for one would love to know how some people judge when a trade....even if the setup is concrete...just does not have a good R-R ratio.

For me...I used a trading channel built from high and low trendlines and at times fib expansions....to judge the possible r-r. I have read elsewhere that thinking of r-r is a waste of time simply because that would require advanced knowledge of where the market will go...which we just don't have.

Would love some input on this.
Ok lemme try and explain my logic behind risk/reward ratios.

Forex is a lot like a casino. I can walk into any casino and play one hand of BlackJack. The casino only has a 1%-2% chance of taking my money if i play only one hand. Yet casinos make millions of money at blackjack tables because the more you play the better the odds of them to beat you. And that is pretty much the logic behind any casino. There more you play the better the chance of them taking your money.

Now forex is the same. The more I trade the better the chances of having loosing trades because of the randomness of the market.

Now i only want to take 10 trades a month BUT out of those 10 trades i want to make as much money as possible.

So i use a 1:3 risk/reward ratio (stop loss = 100 pips, and profit target = 300 pips)

If i have 10 loosing trade out of 10 attemps then i loose 1 000 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 10 trades = 1000 pips - minus 0 winning trades of 0 pips)

If i have 9 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i loose 600 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 9 trades = 900 pips - 1 winning trade of 300 pips = 600 pips)

If i have 8 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i loose 200 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 8 trades = 800 pips - 2 winning trades of 600 pips = 200 pips )

If i have 7 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 200 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 7 trades = 700 pips - 3 winning trades of 900 pips)

If i have 6 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 600 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 6 trades = 600 pips - 4 winning trades of 1200 pips)

If i have 5 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 1 000 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 5 trades = 500 pips - 5 winning trades of 1500 pips)

If i have 4 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 1 400 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 4 trades = 400 pips - 6 winning trades of 1800 pips)

If i have 3 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i loose 1 800 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 3 trades = 300 pips - minus 7 winning trades of 2100 pips)

If i have 2 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 2 200 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 2 trades = 200 pips - minus 8 winning trades of 2400 pips)

If i have 1 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 2 600 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 1 trades = 100 pips - minus 9 winning trades of 2700 pips)

If i have 0 loosing trades out of 10 attemps then i win 3 000 pips (stop loss = 100 pips x 0 trades = 0 pips - minus 10 winning trades of 3000 pips)

Now I only need 3 winning trades out of 10 attemps to make money.

Chances are that i wont get 10 winning trades out of 10 attemps. But chances are good that i will get at least 3 winners out of 10 attemps. And since i only need 3 winning trades i can choose my trades very carefully and only take the "A-grade trades".

ps. Did you know you could have 90% winning trades and still loose money in forex. You make 9 winning trades out of 10 attemps. And in each trade you make 20 pips (9 X 20 pips = 180 pips) BUT you put your stop loss 200 pips away on each trade. So if your stop loss gets hit only once then you have lost 20 pips (200 stop loss - 180 winning trades = -20 pips). Ok i know i have stretched the 200 pip stop loss to illustrate my point but i am sure you get the idea Always try and make at least double the pips you risk on any given trade.

And this is one of the main reasons why most traders dont make money in forex. Yes they make lots of winning trades but their risk (stop losses) kill them.
1 trader viewing now