The System (Irony included) | Page 29 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Point pivot trend line and fibo system (Semafor included) 14 replies

Indicator fix...code included.. WHATS WRONG?!? 4 replies

An interesting read - Daily and 60 Min Strategy - Charts included 3 replies

Attachments: The System (Irony included)
Exit Attachments

The System (Irony included)

  • #561
  • Nov 17, 2007 4:15pm Nov 17, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting fti
To be clear watch "ASAP" page on reuters and you will see it.
Indicative market is quoted in 10pips.
Watch how sometimes 24hrs tokyo is basis out by more than 10pips during London time zone. also watch how the basis tears when it shifts to London/NY.
FX interbank has no central market place.Its all over the world,
and everyone is on what papers they have in hand.
and evry one have differing opinions of where the market is, thats why there is arbitrage.
I think this is the "counting cards" advanced strategy, hehe.

Way too complicated for me to follow right now (I'm going to have to stick with the BlackJack basic level rules for now ) but this is probably very informative for the advanced traders
  • #562
  • Nov 17, 2007 5:39pm Nov 17, 2007 5:39pm
Quoting ownshook
Risk to reward ratio was brought up in this thread and I for one would love to know how some people judge when a trade....even if the setup is concrete...just does not have a good R-R ratio.

For me...I used a trading channel built from high and low trendlines and at times fib expansions....to judge the possible r-r. I have read elsewhere that thinking of r-r is a waste of time simply because that would require advanced knowledge of where the market will go...which we just don't have.

Would love some input on this.
For me, I am not going to place my trades based on a percentage of my account, R/R ratio or anything like that.

I have studied the charts using feb's method and as I have mentioned before, more times out of any, there is a successful run of pips to the upside (or downside in downtrend).

For me, I am going to say ... "how much can I afford to put SL per trade".

If I can only afford to put 100 pips per trade, then if I cannot get into a trade for less than 100 pip SL, then I have to find another opportunity trade to do so. However, this is where trying to find a discount at the 4hr may help to find that 100 pip or less SL trade.

Also, if I feel that a trade just looks too good to pass up, due to seems to be in a very strong uptrend (or downtrend) on the Daily and Weekly, etc., then I may take only ONE trade (instead of my normal two) and put in a little larger SL (maybe 150 pips, let's say) if I can't get a better price on the discount but need to get into the trade right away.

In the past, when I've traded in the shorter-term/smaller-timeframes, I held to the notion that if I am taking profit at 20 pips, that I had to have a 15 pip or less SL. For shorter-term/smaller-timeframes this would be reasonable assessment to make, because there are higher probabilities of whipsaws and retracements happening on the shorter timeframes, so your losses can add up if it's more than your profit taking.

With the Daily and even 4hr, however, I don't see that happening as much.

Let's say that even if I had to put a 100 - 150 pip SL on an upcoming trade, and I don't yet know what my TP will be (because I'm letting it ride until I see a correction candle), even if it ends up only banking me 50 pips, to me that's a good profit.

Yes, there may be times I'll get stopped out, but again, studying the charts, I see more successful trades using feb's method than ones that go against the grain.

Anyway, this is how I am going to trade, and everybody is going to have to make their own decision what is right for them
  • #563
  • Nov 17, 2007 5:50pm Nov 17, 2007 5:50pm
Quoting fti
I already told you, there is no centralised market place, do you understand.
Place stops at your own peril.
I have made a commitment to follow feb's rules of trading, so his method states to put a SL at the low/high of the previous candle.

I truly appreciate your warnings due to your experience, however for me, I cannot NOT put a SL, I'm afraid. That would not be in the rules of feb's method.

With his method, I don't see the hunters taking us out on the Daily as prevalent as with shorter-timeframes. I have studied the charts to see where the criteria was met and how the run went, and most instances, it was very successful.

Again, as long as we follow feb's rules to wait for the 3rd candle to exceed the high/low of the previous candle, then to me, the risk is quite low of a possible retracement.
  • #564
  • Nov 17, 2007 6:22pm Nov 17, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting fti
We should be trading in the future, not in the past.
Robustness of methodology from historical performance is no gauge for future performances.
I would agree, in the case of using indicators this is quite true, however, with price action, we would be able to see if the V-Formation criteria was hit, and whether a SL would have been in the process, as well, no?

Quoting fti
Rigidity of methodology can be a dangerous thing.
Having said that, I also can understand that your rigidness affords you peace of mind in your battles. On this issue I, sincerely hope that you will give it an "open mind" to try to learn, discuss or read more about, for your education to be a successful trader.
I will keep an open mind

I thank you for your feedback
  • #565
  • Nov 17, 2007 7:36pm Nov 17, 2007 7:36pm
http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/blink.gif

Whad he say? lol

I'm sorry, but this stuff is WAY above my head, lol. I can admit when I'm feeling like an idiot, so I shall leave it at that :.

Maybe I'll be ready for that stuff down the line, but for now, it is almost like the indicators ... too much distraction http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hypo.gif

By the time I finish studying and learning all that, I'll be dead! lol

I'm just kidding, but anyway, thanks again, fti!!

I'll try to read your post again-and-again until I can figure out what you're talking about. You're much too advanced for me to comprehend, lol.

Maybe one day, I will be at your level

P.S. Really, please, you don't need to try to break it down any further for me to understand better, I am really not ready for that yet. However, I will send your post to my husband, and he can explain to me what maybe you are talking about. My husband is a very smart man, so I'm sure will understand it better than I. Again, thank you!
  • #566
  • Nov 17, 2007 8:25pm Nov 17, 2007 8:25pm
hi, i have been following this thread from the start and i have to say excellent work feb and would like to thank you (and all the people who contributed something useful to the thread ). your fractal method helped me add something to my own method which i think will increase my profits . but i have a question, when do you take profit?? i have been struggling with taking profits in my own trading, i cant seem to let my profits run which is affecting my overall profitability.

thanks again feb, and happy trading
  • #567
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:32pm Nov 17, 2007 9:32pm
Please erase this post if you think it distracts, but I can see a lesson here. Allow me to indulge myself by doing this.

I am printing this out and putting it on my wall. I am also writing the answers to these points, because I think there is a sh*tload of wisdom in this list.

The following answers are from someone who has devoted a ridiculous amount of time in these markets. Someone who has become a student for the last year, and more importantly, is actually starting to make some money. (Someone told me that I would lose consistently for the first few years, I can tell you that until recently, I was break-even a lot. That was more frustrating than losing to be honest.)

Below are my answers, print out the original list, and fill in your thoughts.


Clockwork





Quoting feb2865
1. no setup = no trade. Stay focus, Don't get fooled by the noise of the market. You know what to do.

This is a major source of frustration. I have come to learn that anything taken on a 15 minute chart for example, is out of sheer boredom.

News trading is NOT PART OF YOUR TRADING PLAN. (It does not matter if you win more than lose, it's dangerous, and ultimately not the type of trader you wish to be. You wish to have a life as well.)
2. Once you have a trade with stops and everything stop starring at the charts. Go do something else. I mean, you already have a trade, The market is not going anywhere.

How many times have I been "psyched out" of a position, only to see three hours later I would have been up 100 pips? This comes down to "micro-managing" a trade.

3.There will be a point in your trading career that you need to stop "listening" to others and start listening to yourself. ( Don't you think is about time now??)

As I trade more, I realize less is more. The is even true with opinions, analysis, and posts. Nobody else is trading your account. If they are willing to absorb losses I take for listening to them, then we can talk.

4.If you get stopped out, deal with it. There's something called market risk, which is the reason why the holy grail doesn't exist. You chose this career. If you can't deal with a loss, Wal-Mart is always hiring.

This is hard. I hate this. But the truth is, it's life. However, after digging myself out of a hole recently, I understand this now. If I make a bad trade, (not a loss, but a BAD TRADE.) I walk away for the rest of the day. Trading is much easier without the frustration as well.

5. Trading is not glamorous. It's simple but hard.
when you get bored to death, will be a sign that your trading is improving.

It's not boring yet, but it's getting there. I do understand this statement though.

 6. You must be attentive to risk and stop thinking about how much can you make. Don't worry you'll get paid.

The key word here, beyond the obvious, it attentive. NOT FEARFUL, ATTENTIVE to risk. If I am paying attention to the amount I am risking, there is nothing to fear. (Beyond a blow to my ego that is.)

7. If you're looking for excitement , go to a casino. Trading is hard, cold and lonely.

No doubt.

 8. stop this "optimization process" Seems like a neverending story to me. I mean, there will be times where you're gonna get burned. The problem lies in you getting discouraged and start this " let me throw some big macs or stochs to "optimize" I assure you eventually that will lead you only to frustration.

I already know this.

9)Don't be like a monkey jumping from one tree to the other looking for something that "works most of the time". You know that's bullshit. You're lying to yourself. The truth is that you are not capable to follow your vision. At the end, your account is up in the wind. It's time to stop.

Been there, done that. Luckily, it didn't cost me an account. However, it cost me something more expensive, "MENTAL CAPITAL."

10) I've seen plenty of traders, practicing on demo for a hundred years. You're scared my friend don't deny it. Here in forex you can trade even for pennies. It's time to get your ass on the line and get real my friend.

The truth is I am not afraid of the financial loss, it's the frustration of being "wrong". Money comes and goes, and has no place or merit in deciding a person's worth.

Also, as money comes and goes, it must also ebb and flow. Ebb and flow is another way of saying equity will go up, then down, then sideways. Let's make sure it climbs overall.

If the market is one wave after another, (much like an ocean.) How can my account be any different? If all trades were good for 300 pips, then there would be no challenge. The challenge is part of what you love about this thing called Foreign Exchange. It's not like you have been buying Swiss Francs because you are spending next weekend in Basil. You are doing it for financial gain. So is everyone else, including the guy on the other side of the trade.

11) The market is nasty. Take no prisoners. and won't care if you're good or not. Don't let it tell you what to do. You call the shots. If you feel that something is not right, insecure, sick, out of focus, etc. Don't trade. Don't force anything

This come downs to patience. Something I am not exactly an expert at. Patience comes with wisdom. Wisdom comes with experience. Experience comes with breaking rules like this one. I now have enough experience. Now I don't need to break this rule anymore, and have relieved some stress in my life.

12) Relax. You're trading off the daily chart. Take your time. Think. Observe. Be picky with your trades. Take the best setups.

Or the 4 hour chart. Beyond this, I already know this rule well.

13) It's good to have an attitude when you're about to trade. I was an asshole when I was on the floor. Now in front of the screen I still have an attitude. Remember , it's your money and your time and you're a professional . The time to be a newbie is over and will end on this thread.

There are two things that classify a "newbie" in my opinion. Being naive is the first one. This normally ends with the first trade or two.

Fear is the second one. It's much harder to get rid of. As fear starts to lose it's grip on you, newbie-like trading starts to fade.
14) If you miss the bus, that's ok. Don't be hard to yourself. As long as demand and supply rule the markets, I assure you there will be plenty of chance to get back on the bus.

Note to self: If you don't start living by this rule, I will let Ben tattoo it on your forearm.

This mistake has punished me before. Also, there have been trades that worked out in the end, but not without considerable discomfort. We are trying to find a way to make more money, and live with more freedom. Sitting at the computer wondering when the friggin' Euro will pullback so you can break-even is NOT beneficial in ANY aspect of my life.

 15) The most important rule of all - help others. Pass the good Karma and it will comeback to you bigger Talking by experience.

Not only do I agree with this - I will elaborate another reason. (Although it is selfish.)

Sometimes you will find wisdom in what you type. Sometimes you will be surprised what you already understand, yet have been refusing to do yourself. Sometimes it is YOU that already holds the answer to your question.

You might not agree with me and that's ok. But it took me many years to understand what I just stated above. I am practical. I trade for the money that's why I play smart. Risk is my #1 priority.

I managed to keep my head above the water since 1981 doing what I said above. I believe you can do it too.

Peace
  • #568
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:49pm Nov 17, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting leighsww
http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/blink.gif

Whad he say? lol

I'm sorry, but this stuff is WAY above my head, lol. I can admit when I'm feeling like an idiot, so I shall leave it at that :.

Maybe I'll be ready for that stuff down the line, but for now, it is almost like the indicators ... too much distraction http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hypo.gif

By the time I finish studying and learning all that, I'll be dead! lol

I'm just kidding, but anyway, thanks again, fti!!

I'll try to read your post again-and-again until I can figure out what you're talking about. You're much too advanced for me to comprehend, lol.

Maybe one day, I will be at your level

P.S. Really, please, you don't need to try to break it down any further for me to understand better, I am really not ready for that yet. However, I will send your post to my husband, and he can explain to me what maybe you are talking about. My husband is a very smart man, so I'm sure will understand it better than I. Again, thank you!
English is not his first language I would suspect. (I think I read he is from Singapore. Maybe someday he will explain to us why Asian Forex Traders kill each other over 2 pips at a time. Asia is a source of indigestion more often than not for me.)

However, for some of the things he brought up, which are valid in my opinion, it would be almost impossible for you to obtain that kind of speed or information.

He is also referring to "stop hunting" in at least one of his posts. Yes Mildred, there are thieves out there called banks.

However, they only come for you if you happen to be with a large pile of others. Your 1 or 2 standard lots aren't worth bothering with.

But hey - cheer up. There are bankers all over the world becoming unemployed/homeless because they didn't bother looking at what they are buying with these subprime-infested messes. Morons. (Ok, so I'm not always a nice guy.)

Europe is not immune, by the way. Never forget that.

Clockwork
  • #569
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:58pm Nov 17, 2007 9:58pm
His English was perfect, it wasn't that. The content was what I couldn't comprehend, lol.

It was like my husband talking chemistry to me, haha.

Anyway, thanks, Clockwork, for the explanation in layman's terms. That helped
  • #570
  • Nov 17, 2007 10:02pm Nov 17, 2007 10:02pm
Quoting no0odle
hi, i have been following this thread from the start and i have to say excellent work feb and would like to thank you (and all the people who contributed something useful to the thread ). your fractal method helped me add something to my own method which i think will increase my profits . but i have a question, when do you take profit?? i have been struggling with taking profits in my own trading, i cant seem to let my profits run which is affecting my overall profitability.

thanks again feb, and happy trading

It all depends. I generally build a position for a long term if the market has what it takes. Then as I see a confirmed fractal, I decide if I scale out, add some more funds or simply shot the trade completely. At the beginning you can either go all in (always with an eye on capital risk) or just build your position over time in increments of x amount of contracts/lots/shares. etc.

Peace
Peace
  • #571
  • Nov 17, 2007 10:06pm Nov 17, 2007 10:06pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,

@ leighsww

I think I have given much for you to investigate, probably months of research for you. Nevertheless with this awareness, it behoves you to educate yourself, for your profitability and well being as a trader. Try to reread what I have revealed carefully. With your good head on your shoulders, you should be able to slowly improve your R/R factor across time.

I believe what feb have presented is a respectable methodology and quite professional, nonetheless be wary of its implementation in differing market structures.

I am signing off for today and shall visit again when time permits.
Best for your trades.

regards
Thank you for your valuable information and your kindness. For big players in interbank markets, nobody wants the other players see where the stops placed, because that stop loss would be a target. But they have stop loss ion paper. Am I right?



But for tiny players like Leigh and me, place a stop loss say, 100 pips, and away from some price area/level to avoid noise-like volatility, will not cause big players' attention to eat us. So, we have to set stop loss. Am I right?

Thank you again.
  • #572
  • Nov 17, 2007 10:36pm Nov 17, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting clockwork71
He is also referring to "stop hunting" in at least one of his posts. Yes Mildred, there are thieves out there called banks.

However, they only come for you if you happen to be with a large pile of others. Your 1 or 2 standard lots aren't worth bothering with.

But hey - cheer up. There are bankers all over the world becoming unemployed/homeless because they didn't bother looking at what they are buying with these subprime-infested messes. Morons. (Ok, so I'm not always a nice guy.)

Clockwork
You have sense of humor. .
  • #573
  • Nov 17, 2007 10:39pm Nov 17, 2007 10:39pm
Quoting feb2865
It all depends. I generally build a position for a long term if the market has what it takes. Then as I see a confirmed fractal, I decide if I scale out, add some more funds or simply shot the trade completely. At the beginning you can either go all in (always with an eye on capital risk) or just build your position over time in increments of x amount of contracts/lots/shares. etc.

Peace
Hi, Feb(somebody doesn't like big brother thing)

Regarding PA, besides fractal and V form, are there any other price action to be focused and worth notice?
  • #574
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:05pm Nov 17, 2007 11:05pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,

@ leighsww

On the V formations you mentioned, I believe that the methodology is using the "hip and lop" against the countertrend reversal pivots. In structured (localised exchange traded) markets supply/demand papers can restrict the impass of certain "key" levels. Unfortunately in free flow unstructured markets (interbank forex) you are left at the mercy of the position of the book of the marketmaker(s).

As I mentioned in the example earlier, variance impulse volitility of their blotters at differing localities will create "noise" to hunt stops. That is the structure and theoritical edge for making markets.

If nothing else, understand this, the structure of "Structured vs Unstructured markets" are vastly different at foundational levels. To understand this, read about "the structure and working of the markets you trade". The synthetics and derivative OTC (over the counter)markets are even more complex in it foundation, normally with strong theoritical edge to the marketmakers. Note that leverage will compound the "risk of ruin".

I think I have given much for you to investigate, probably months of research for you. Nevertheless with this awareness, it behoves you to educate yourself, for your profitability and well being as a trader. Try to reread what I have revealed carefully. With your good head on your shoulders, you should be able to slowly improve your R/R factor across time.

I believe what feb have presented is a respectable methodology and quite professional, nonetheless be wary of its implementation in differing market structures.

I am signing off for today and shall visit again when time permits.
Best for your trades.

regards
fti

Thank you for your explanation. Actually I personally stopped talking about intermarket realtionship as I believe this is a subject we should discuss in another tread. But I feel compelled discuss for your own benefit hopefully what you said about structured/unstructured markets. The following is something I learned not too long ago.

I have a friend of mine who a bad situation and was forced to retire form trading. She got back into trading with a little help form her friends and decided to open an account with a forex broker, attracted to the fact of having almost absolute control over leverage etc. Another thing she was literally running away from futures, as you might now, they're plagued by sharks (I confess) and plenty of bot trading especially on ES.

I talked to her last week and she went back to trade currency futures. She said "you know is no use. At least in futures, you have a clue where the sharks are located. Trading with market makers, they become the sharks. "

I Ask her if she noticed the same pattern/behavior as the sharks do in futures, She agreed. Same old Pivot Points, fibos, s/r lines etc..She also had trade execution problems despite her orders are 99% limit and she trade off daily charts.

I am just relying on her experience. I just realized that no matter how the market is structured, same patterns could be observed on key levels.

About V formations out of pivotal points ala countertrend mode, that's not what I am talking about.

Fractals are a natural occurrence of the markets. You might see them in every time frame The reason why I prefer daily charts is because the amount of data collected and encapsulated in the fractal is strong enough in order to justify market move/reverse/continuation.

Are they perfect? Absolutely not. As I mentioned before I got burned in fractals many times. That's why I use an "extra protection"

About implementation of what I presented here in other markets etc. I have to respectfully disagree. I believe as long as there's supply demand on the markets, there will be natural occurrences (like fractals / Support and resistance, choppiness etc) in which every trader armed with proper knowledge an uncluttered/ unbiased vision of the markets could capitalize upon. This rule applies to all markets, including your local supermarket.

You could have a better idea of what I said above, just looking at the DOM back in the 90's. I was a "liquidity provider" (yes that nasty guy who step in front of the specialist with the idea of trading between the spread) it was fun to watch as how many people, institutions etc, were fighting(or running away) to death just to establish themselves into a position. It was a more intense experience than be on the floor with all this people screaming at the top of their lungs.

As a last coment, I believe you need to evaluate what you said about "restrict the impass of certain "key" levels" with all respect, that's incorrect.


Well, I wil shut up now, We should let this thread run freely at the base it was created.

Anyway, you're welcome here!!!feel like home

Peace
Peace
  • #575
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:17pm Nov 17, 2007 11:17pm
Oh my garsh, I could understand feb's post ... there's hope for me, after all
  • #576
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:18pm Nov 17, 2007 11:18pm
Antra

if you get to read this post, I am having an aussie shiraz this weekend. I can't remember the name I believe is Jacob's something, kinda hard to think now LOL All I can say is that the wine is doing it's job real good.



Peace
Peace
  • #577
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:20pm Nov 17, 2007 11:20pm
Quoting leighsww
Oh my garsh, I could understand feb's post ... there's hope for me, after all
What??? did I said something wrong???... I am writing "under the influence of shiraz " LOL
Peace
  • #578
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:25pm Nov 17, 2007 11:25pm
Well, after your post to Antra regarding the shiraz, my understanding your post under the influence, is more a reflection on me than you! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/crying.gif
  • #579
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:26pm Nov 17, 2007 11:26pm
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Feb(somebody doesn't like big brother thing)

Regarding PA, besides fractal and V form, are there any other price action to be focused and worth notice?
observe hammers. Also is good to pay attention at shooting stars.

Just remember, I used the following words "observe" and "pay attention"
The idea is to be careful .

Peace
Peace
  • #580
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:28pm Nov 17, 2007 11:28pm
Quoting leighsww
Well, after your post to Antra regarding the shiraz, my understanding your post under the influence, is more a reflection on me than you! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/crying.gif
oh boy. Anyway seem like I brought some clarity to your head.

I am curious, why you said there's hope for you after all???

Peace
Peace
1 trader viewing now