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How much money can a seasoned semi-pro make with trading on Forex?

  • #21
  • Nov 16, 2007 8:52pm Nov 16, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting Treehugger
Hello!

I'm still very fresh in all this, working on my strategy, money management and everything.

Anyway, I was wondering, what could a seasoned semi-pro do, if you'd give him $10.000. Is it likely that he could turn this money into, let's say, $20.000 in a year, without taking too much of a risk? Is it possible to have this kind of gains, if your account's exposure is max. at 6%? Or do you need to take bigger risks to achieve a 100% return?

And what do most of you find "easier" to trade - Forex or Stocks?

Sorry for my n00bish questions, but I'd like to hear your answers and opinions. Thanks! http://forums.babypips.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
Forex has only two parameters time and price. The stockmarket has time, price and volyme. The stockmarket is much more interesting and challenging. Rumors, expansion, layouts, competitors, new products, just a few things to mention. I make a living out of forex but what is left over after living expenses I put in the stocks. Forex is simpler.
  • #22
  • Nov 16, 2007 9:31pm Nov 16, 2007 9:31pm
Gonna disagree with you here.

Volume is meaningful, expecially with hammers, etc.... so the lack of volume makes decision making more difficult. IE) All forex hammers are not created equal.

So it boils down to whether you are a fundamental trader, or a technical analysis one.

Quoting Northernstar
Forex has only two parameters time and price. The stockmarket has time, price and volyme. The stockmarket is much more interesting and challenging. Rumors, expansion, layouts, competitors, new products, just a few things to mention. I make a living out of forex but what is left over after living expenses I put in the stocks. Forex is simpler.
  • #23
  • Nov 16, 2007 10:24pm Nov 16, 2007 10:24pm
  •  mld
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Pips Raining Cats & Dogs | 85 Posts
Quoting tdion
100% return in an hour is possible, given the right scenario.
in an hour its crazy, but within a month its trustworthy some ppl want statements to believe, but just be a believer within and you'll be there
mld
  • #24
  • Nov 16, 2007 10:37pm Nov 16, 2007 10:37pm
Hello mld. I am skeptical of anyone that claims 100% a month.... so if you are in this elite group, tell me this:

What is your risk every month?

Surely there is a percentage of your portfolio that is exposed. What is a bad month like for you? Regards.

PS) "Being a believer within" doesn't make pips. What are you doing to make your returns? Discretion with chart analysis? Using fundamentals to filter good TA signals? I'd like to know something more concrete than "be a believer" because there has to be more of a method than "I believe this trade will work."

Quoting mld
in an hour its crazy, but within a month its trustworthy some ppl want statements to believe, but just be a believer within and you'll be there
mld
  • #25
  • Nov 17, 2007 12:25am Nov 17, 2007 12:25am
  •  mld
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Pips Raining Cats & Dogs | 85 Posts
Hello tdion
PM sent,
mld
  • #26
  • Nov 17, 2007 3:20am Nov 17, 2007 3:20am
Hello again!

I was only a few hours away and so many answers were given. Thanks.

@Northernstar: I was thinking about this too. I'd made money trading forex, but I'd use stocks for long-term investments only. After studying and investing for 4 years, I believe this would be most suitable for me. Invest in stocks, trade forex.

I know there is a loooong way ahead of me, but I have time...
  • #27
  • Nov 17, 2007 3:44am Nov 17, 2007 3:44am
Some aggressive trader can make a turnover of 700%-1000% in 10months.

It all depends on the trading techniques and methods.

So i think that target is really small 4 some people 2 meet
Everything is bare Making the best out of pips
  • #28
  • Edited 7:01am Nov 17, 2007 6:43am | Edited 7:01am
I should have clarified..... half their account on a single trade. Well tree, everybody around this forum is doing different things. I am not a pro, and don't trade for a living. What I can tell you is that there are a variety of risk strategies to be considered, and at the end of the day you have to realize that for every dollar you are trying to make, some dollars can come out of your pocket.

That's it. Bottom line.

So you start from there.... that losing is ALWAYS a possibility, even if you go for a couple of pips. Some people are scalping (linuxtroll) and some are swing traders (myself, Hilmy) and some are Elliot Wave theorists (El Grande.) We are all different, and we trade what we believe in. Karmostaji is a Fibonacci trader. James16 is a price action expert.

To answer your question, 2% risk of the entire portfolio per trade is pretty popular around here.

Quote
Who are these people? Small fries trading from home? Bankers? Fund managers?

What is the exposure of THE ENTIRE portfolio when making 700%? I've seen guys do insane things, like risk half their account to get a few pips. Not that I wish bad on anyone, but if the account blows up they deserve it.

Correct me, if I am wrong here.
  • #29
  • Nov 17, 2007 6:49am Nov 17, 2007 6:49am
Tdion, is risking 6% of my total portfolio reasonable, or should it be less... or even more? I know it depends from my personality and everything, but what is a "standard" among pros?
  • #30
  • Nov 17, 2007 7:35am Nov 17, 2007 7:35am
Quoting Treehugger
Tdion, is risking 6% of my total portfolio reasonable, or should it be less... or even more? I know it depends from my personality and everything, but what is a "standard" among pros?
6% seems like a lot to me. I risk 3% but everyone has a slightly different number. The number you use shouldn't be a "gut feel" calculation.

For a given system accuracy and a maximum allowed drawdown there exists a number for your system. Risk too much and you will endure gut wrenching drawdowns. Risk too little and it is just as bad, or worse, than leaving pips in a trade. Missing your optimum % risk by just 1% can result in a 30% difference in your account value at the end of the year. If you've done your analysis and made the effort to place a trade you owe it to yourself and those depending on you to risk the correct amount.
  • #31
  • Nov 17, 2007 8:00am Nov 17, 2007 8:00am
Quoting caek
I guess it could be possible to turn 10k into 100k..... with some ridiculous luck and insane risk/leverage
It's possible with neither of those things. It's possible with a lot of time to devote to it and practice. I don't believe in luck even though I say it all the time.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #32
  • Nov 17, 2007 8:24am Nov 17, 2007 8:24am
Classic example of a difference of opinion. I personally believe that trading is equally dependent on luck as on skill.

The fact is, you can't make the market do anything. And when you commit a trade in one direction or the other, there is nothing you can do to stop it from going against you.
  • #33
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:26am Nov 17, 2007 9:26am
i use neither luck nor skill - just a simple 100% winning method with negligible risk; so little risk that i never use a stoploss. and i consistently make Way over 100% every hour.

try it out.

first put on a trade - short or long, it does not matter.

click on the ask price line twice to select it, then drag it way above your long entry or way below your short entry.

close your trade and bank the profit. this is a simple method that works 100% of the time.

if you have trouble selecting the ask price line, go to tools/options/objects and set the magnet sensitivity to zero.
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #34
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:52am Nov 17, 2007 9:52am
  •  mld
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Pips Raining Cats & Dogs | 85 Posts
My hats off to you buddhi
mld
  • #35
  • Nov 17, 2007 12:43pm Nov 17, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting philmcgrew
For a given system accuracy and a maximum allowed drawdown there exists a number for your system. Risk too much and you will endure gut wrenching drawdowns. Risk too little and it is just as bad, or worse, than leaving pips in a trade. Missing your optimum % risk by just 1% can result in a 30% difference in your account value at the end of the year. If you've done your analysis and made the effort to place a trade you owe it to yourself and those depending on you to risk the correct amount.
I don't have a system yet, but I've read in Van K. Tharp's book (Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom) about setting the optimum % risk. But he did not mention how to do this. Google doesn't help either. Could you please provide some guidance?
  • #36
  • Edited 2:22pm Nov 17, 2007 12:50pm | Edited 2:22pm
I think a guy can safely put down 300 - 600 pips per week on 5 currencies -depending on your trading model (for automated-- manual is much more variable) ... after that, it gets kind of dicey when you press it. unless you really know how to manage tops and bottoms. The week can also make a huge difference. Tree hugger. I think you will find no one will tell you how to do it. Just brag about it and not show.. thats why trading is so fun!
  • #37
  • Nov 17, 2007 2:58pm Nov 17, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting Treehugger
I don't have a system yet, but I've read in Van K. Tharp's book (Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom) about setting the optimum % risk. But he did not mention how to do this. Google doesn't help either. Could you please provide some guidance?
Treehugger...

Michael Bryant has written a clear article on optimum risk analysis. You can also buy some software that will execute it. It is based on data YOU provide for YOUR system. I really like his monte carlo analysis. You can select any way you want to analyize your trading results (drawdown maximum, profit max, etc) Still becomes your responsibility to decide what is best for you. It is statisticlly based which i like.

I have not used this yet but will be doing so shortly. Phil is so right that position sizing can make a huge difference in your result. Right now i am risking a specific % amount (fixed fractional) of my account for each trade. Yet in my own excel "what if" anaysis, i could be significantly further ahead if i had risked just a bit more. The percent has changed based on my personal comfort level but is now set based on the pair i trade.

The artiucle can be found here. http://www.adaptrade.com/Articles/article-op.htm

Good trading

Jimno
  • #38
  • Nov 17, 2007 4:00pm Nov 17, 2007 4:00pm
James, thank you so much for the link. I'll definitely read all of his articles and try the software.
  • #39
  • Nov 18, 2007 9:26am Nov 18, 2007 9:26am
Quoting tdion
Gonna disagree with you here.

Volume is meaningful, expecially with hammers, etc.... so the lack of volume makes decision making more difficult. IE) All forex hammers are not created equal.

So it boils down to whether you are a fundamental trader, or a technical analysis one.
I do not trade hammers, dojis, shooting stars, triangles, flags and so on. I am not a fundamental or technical I trade price and only price. It is quite the opposite lack of volyme makes trading easier. I only trade what I see, price and time.
  • #40
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:13pm Nov 18, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting buddhi

if you have trouble selecting the ask price line, go to tools/options/objects and set the magnet sensitivity to zero.
When I mouse click anywhere on the screen, the price moves up and down, esp. on the 1 minute chart. I still have difficulty in controlling which direction. I have tried various magnetic sensitivity settings.

I found K. V. Van Garp's book "Shouting At The Screen", a classic for any trader, more useful.
Gone to a better place
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