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The System (Irony included)

  • #461
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:19pm Nov 15, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting feb2865
Oh I put a trade today !!!!!!
Do tell....
  • #462
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:11pm Nov 15, 2007 5:11pm
oh I am sorry I didn't finish the line

I trade E-mini's ..still waiting on E/U


I apologize

Peace
Peace
  • #463
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:15pm Nov 15, 2007 5:15pm
lol
You confused me there for a bit ( not difficult)...one minute you were saying you saw no set ups and then a post or so later you were in a trade....all good
  • #464
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:20pm Nov 15, 2007 5:20pm
oh boy is that I was distracted and I meant to finish the line instead I put !!!!!!

and no, I am not with Mr. Merlot yet.... LOL

That's for the weekends only

Peace
Peace
  • #465
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:57pm Nov 15, 2007 6:57pm
I still see a lot of pressure coming from the indices.

I am still watching 1300-1320 area.

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW.jpg Size: 114 KB
Peace
  • #466
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:05pm Nov 15, 2007 7:05pm
Interesting note

Cable broke a line of support at 2.05 area

but E/U didn't quite follow.

Also crude was sloppy today.

We had no choice but to sit in our hands and do nothing. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

well, we can play poker. That would be nice !!!!!

Seriously Leighs, I am curious about poker

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 87 KB
Peace
  • #467
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:48pm Nov 15, 2007 7:48pm
Ok I know some of you have been waiting for this and I appologize in taking so long to get it up to you. I ave been very bisy due to some travel I have coming up here next Tuesday.

You will notice that my entry and reasoning are based solely on price action. You will also notice that it is not based 100% on a V formation or a 1-2-3 setup. As you grow as traders you will slowly add other tools to your trading toolbox which is what you will see in my example. I do nto stray comepletely from the overall idea of a V or 1-2-3 I just watch price and pull the trigger when the time is right.

Had my warning though! Learn one thing first before trying to learn 10 things at once. If you try to trade 4 different setups while you are in the early stages of your trading career you will have moments of brillance and many more moments of failure. Once you start racking up the failure you will soon become dicuraged and then start looking for something else that may work for you.

So please please please learn one thing and learn it well. When you can trade one setup profitably then add another tool to your box. You will become a much happier trader that way.

Also I nkow you may be reading this and thinking "man if I only learn one setup how the heck am I ever going to get anywhere?" Let me tell you my friend, you can trade one setup and be wildly profitable and make a comfortable living from just that one thing alone. So find one that you understand learn it and learn it well. Understand its neuances and manerisms and you will soon be on your way to making excelent trading decisions.

Sorry Letitride I used your post as a reply but this is for the benefit of everyone.

And again as always Feb if I am off base from what you are trying to show fols here feel free to remove my post I will not be offended in the least. you have a great place for folks to come and feel welcome about learning how to trade.

Trader_V

Quoting letitride
Morning Trader V (actually its midnight for me in Australia)



I've been greatly anticipating you analysis on the trade you took on the US/JPY. When you have time I was hoping you could break it down for us.

I noticed the level of support price hit in the retracement, then it reversed and continued in the direction of the major trend. Did you place your stop just above the level of support? How do you determine your profit target(s)? Do you look for a reversal pattern or is it predetermined?

Thanks in advance for your reply

Great words of wisdom all around this thread thanks again to all for sharing. .
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc USDJPY Trade.doc   133 KB | 1,109 downloads
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #468
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:59pm Nov 15, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting ownshook
I believe if there is a retracement to 1.4520 area...that would form a double bottom. Not sure where you are seeing a possible double top
Well, when you see the letter "M" on a table, the guy sitting opposite side of table sees a letter "W". Right?
  • #469
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:11pm Nov 15, 2007 8:11pm
Quoting Trader_V
Ok I know some of you have been waiting for this and I appologize in taking so long to get it up to you. I ave been very bisy due to some travel I have coming up here next Tuesday.

You will notice that my entry and reasoning are based solely on price action. You will also notice that it is not based 100% on a V formation or a 1-2-3 setup. As you grow as traders you will slowly add other tools to your trading toolbox which is what you will see in my example. I do nto stray comepletely from the overall idea of a V or 1-2-3 I just watch price and pull the trigger when the time is right.

Had my warning though! Learn one thing first before trying to learn 10 things at once. If you try to trade 4 different setups while you are in the early stages of your trading career you will have moments of brillance and many more moments of failure. Once you start racking up the failure you will soon become dicuraged and then start looking for something else that may work for you.

So please please please learn one thing and learn it well. When you can trade one setup profitably then add another tool to your box. You will become a much happier trader that way.

Also I nkow you may be reading this and thinking "man if I only learn one setup how the heck am I ever going to get anywhere?" Let me tell you my friend, you can trade one setup and be wildly profitable and make a comfortable living from just that one thing alone. So find one that you understand learn it and learn it well. Understand its neuances and manerisms and you will soon be on your way to making excelent trading decisions.

Sorry Letitride I used your post as a reply but this is for the benefit of everyone.

And again as always Feb if I am off base from what you are trying to show fols here feel free to remove my post I will not be offended in the least. you have a great place for folks to come and feel welcome about learning how to trade.

Trader_V

no my friend

It's all good. the idea is to create synergy between the group. Good call on your trade.

Amen to your post

Peace
Peace
  • #470
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:16pm Nov 15, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting feb2865
Interesting note

Cable broke a line of support at 2.05 area

but E/U didn't quite follow.

Also crude was sloppy today.

We had no choice but to sit in our hands and do nothing. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

well, we can play poker. That would be nice !!!!!

Seriously Leighs, I am curious about poker

Peace

Thank you for this and another post about DJIA index. Gold price broke down 800 for a second time yesterday. The drop is huge, almost 40$!

It is no way to know if the move is a correction or the first leg of bear market?
  • #471
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:18pm Nov 15, 2007 8:18pm
I forgot to post e/u charts

check the notes

I am still bullish on E/U

the "market in pause" candle is a reference for 11/15/2007

peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.jpg Size: 99 KB
Peace
  • #472
  • Edited 8:24pm Nov 15, 2007 8:22pm | Edited 8:24pm
Quoting Green_David
Well, when you see the letter "M" on a table, the guy sitting opposite side of table sees a letter "W". Right?
I don't know what they see....that is why I needed some clarity from the poster on what they saw. To be more specific....if they meant a double bottom...that could lead nicely with the overall trend of that pair (and Febs bias on the E/U) which suits the method we are discussing. If they really meant a double top....that could mean looking for a retracement or a break out of the resistance. Could also mean if we are going back and forth between a dt and db...we could be heading towards a trading range. Clarity is what I was seeking.....

Thank you for the information Trader V!
  • #473
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:23pm Nov 15, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting Trader_V
Ok I know some of you have been waiting for this and I appologize in taking so long to get it up to you. I ave been very bisy due to some travel I have coming up here next Tuesday.

You will notice that my entry and reasoning are based solely on price action. You will also notice that it is not based 100% on a V formation or a 1-2-3 setup. As you grow as traders you will slowly add other tools to your trading toolbox which is what you will see in my example. I do nto stray comepletely from the overall idea of a V or 1-2-3 I just watch price and pull the trigger when the time is right.

Had my warning though! Learn one thing first before trying to learn 10 things at once. If you try to trade 4 different setups while you are in the early stages of your trading career you will have moments of brillance and many more moments of failure. Once you start racking up the failure you will soon become dicuraged and then start looking for something else that may work for you.

So please please please learn one thing and learn it well. When you can trade one setup profitably then add another tool to your box. You will become a much happier trader that way.

Also I nkow you may be reading this and thinking "man if I only learn one setup how the heck am I ever going to get anywhere?" Let me tell you my friend, you can trade one setup and be wildly profitable and make a comfortable living from just that one thing alone. So find one that you understand learn it and learn it well. Understand its neuances and manerisms and you will soon be on your way to making excelent trading decisions.

Sorry Letitride I used your post as a reply but this is for the benefit of everyone.

And again as always Feb if I am off base from what you are trying to show fols here feel free to remove my post I will not be offended in the least. you have a great place for folks to come and feel welcome about learning how to trade.

Trader_V

Hi Trader V

No need to apologize mate. We all appreciate your contribution to Feb's great thread. I understand what you are saying, the old cliche "You must learn to crawl before you can walk" comes to mind when reading your advice.

Now to dissect your charts hehe(I'm a visual learner so although I know reading is necessary, looking at charts makes it sink in that much easier)

thanks again from the other side of the world
  • #474
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:28pm Nov 15, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting feb2865
I forgot to post e/u charts

check the notes

I am still bullish on E/U

the "market in pause" candle is a reference for 11/15/2007

peace
Yes. E/U got support at 1.4610.

Thank you.
  • #475
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:34pm Nov 15, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting Green_David
Thank you for this and another post about DJIA index. Gold price broke down 800 for a second time yesterday. The drop is huge, almost 40$!

It is no way to know if the move is a correction or the first leg of bear market?
I won't go that far. The trend has been strong for gold. But you never know. A lot of hedgies are parking cash in gold. The moves was a surprise. In my opinion it will take a lot of load to move that trend. But hey, I can be wrong!! hope not LOL

Peace
Peace
  • #476
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:44pm Nov 15, 2007 8:44pm
Feb2865...

I am not sure if I missed this however what if you have a failed V formation that misses the break? To be specific....if a few bars pass and there is no break...do you wait for another V setup or good to go when it breaks regardless of the number of bars?

To take a guess...if the E/U continues going sideways...is that where you implement your consolodation method?
  • #477
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:44pm Nov 15, 2007 8:44pm
I know I mentioned that it is possible to trade with a $500.00 account and be profitable and in fact build upon that.

So I want to touch on a couple of points one is my feelings on demo Vs real accounts and the other is how a small real account should really be looked at.

There is debate about the use of demo accounts to learn how to trade. Some say you should never trade a real account until you become profitable with a demo. Others will say demos are worthless just open a real account and be done with it.

Well I am a middle of the road kind of guy here. Let me explain. I do believe that there is value in using a demo account. But I believe that people do not understand how they should use the demo account. So many people start a demo account with 10K, 30K 50K or even 100K. Let me say this. If you are going to trade a demo account with $50,000.00 then you damn well better be prepared to open a real account with the same amount.

Now why would I say that?

For the simple reason that new traders will open an demo account with 50K and then trade it like it was 100K using leverage they never should have been using and placing trades that would make Jack Schwager cringe. They make a couple of lucky trades and think man this is great if I keep this up I can quit my day job in 6 months.

Whooo hold on there partner. This is when they go and open a real account with 200 500 or even 1000 dollars and trade the same exact way. Over leveraged and over exposed. In 2 weeks to 2 months they have blown there account and either get frustrated and throw in the towel or they go looking for the Holy Grail and purchase the hottest trading system on the market that has a 97% accuracy.

They go back open a demo account and repeat the same process over and over again until they are either fed up and just quit the trading game all together or they are lucky enough to find folks like Feb and James16 who are willing to show them the truth about the markets and bring new traders back down to reality.

So I say yes open a demo account but open it with the same starting capital you are looking to open your real account with. And treat it like it was real money using proper Money Management and proper leverage.

So now let me share my thoughts about real accounts. Many folks come to the table with a small trading account and pie in the sky dreams. Please do not get me wrong I encourage you and everyone to dream as big as you can. But just understand you must have a realistic outlook and know that with a small trading account you can still get to those big dreams it’s just going to take a little longer as you build your account.

I have seen many times where a new trader opens an account with $500 and even have a trading plan and sound money management strategies. But where they fall short is they treat the 500 like it is nothing rather than treating like it is their golden key to freedom.

You see they place trades with proper risk, and when a trade goes against them their discipline falls to the wayside with the thinking that the trade will come back in my direction it has to. Then they start to say well it’s only $10 dollars then the 10 turns into 20 and so on and so on. You see what is happening here. They discount the amount of money that is in the market and treat it as know big deal!

The opposite is also true. I have seen traders come to the table with the same money skills and plan and the only difference is they have the discipline to stick to their plan. But because the returns are in small amounts of dollars and cents like a $5.00 wining trade or a $25.00 winning trade or even a $1.50 winning trade they start to treat trading as more of a hobby then a business then they either lose interest and hope or start making bad trading decisions because they feel they are not getting where they are going fast enough.

Here is my remedy for folks with small accounts. Treat it like it is your GOLDEN KEY to FREEDOM. Because it is. Next forget about the dollars and cents until the end of every month. I don’t care how much the trade is worth in actual dollars all I know is I need to end the month with more positive pips then negative pips.

Then at the end of the month review your account balance. If your 500 account has grown to 518 you need to do the math and understand that you made a 3.6% return on your account. Is this huge? You bet your sweet bananas it is. And as your account grows the size of your trades will grow and before you know it you will have a sizable account to trade from for a living. Now this is not to say that you cannot continue to add to your account as you progress to help it grow faster in fact I encourage this once you have gained the experience to pull profits out of the market consistently.

Now taking the previous example let’s assume you only ever make a 3.6% gain on your account and never have a better month or improve your trading skills. At the end of 1 year of trading with a $500 account and making a consistent 3.6% you will have grown your account to $737.78 which is a 47.5% return after a year!!! Go find me a mutual fund hat has that kind of performance. So forget about the dollars and cents and do the math and understand the real effects of what your trading is doing.

Below is what that same account would do after years. I hope you enjoyed this post and were able to take something out of it.


Balance Return

$500.00 $18.00
$518.00 $18.65
$536.65 $19.32
$555.97 $20.01
$575.98 $20.74
$596.72 $21.48
$618.20 $22.26
$640.45 $23.06
$663.51 $23.89
$687.40 $24.75
$712.14 $25.64
$737.78 $26.56
$764.34 $27.52
$791.86 $28.51
$820.36 $29.53
$849.90 $30.60
$880.49 $31.70
$912.19 $32.84
$945.03 $34.02
$979.05 $35.25
$1,014.30 $36.51
$1,050.81 $37.83
$1,088.64 $39.19
$1,127.83 $40.60



May all the best trades go your way.

Trader_V
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #478
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:49pm Nov 15, 2007 8:49pm
Quoting feb2865
I won't go that far. The trend has been strong for gold. But you never know. A lot of hedgies are parking cash in gold. The moves was a surprise. In my opinion it will take a lot of load to move that trend. But hey, I can be wrong!! hope not LOL

Peace
I am glad you answered the question from little brother. I observed that, spot gold price is highly co-related with E/U - they reached top and bottom almost at the same date for a mid-term trend(one to 4 months) .
  • #479
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:58pm Nov 15, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting ownshook
Feb2865...

I am not sure if I missed this however what if you have a failed V formation that misses the break? To be specific....if a few bars pass and there is no break...do you wait for another V setup or good to go when it breaks regardless of the number of bars?

To take a guess...if the E/U continues going sideways...is that where you implement your consolodation method?
all depends If you're trying to get in for the first time I strongly suggest that you wait for a clear V formation. That way you reduce a risk of getting caught up in the beginning of a correction.

Check the charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: correction.jpg Size: 93 KB
Peace
  • #480
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:01pm Nov 15, 2007 9:01pm
Quoting Green_David
I am glad you answered the question from little brother. I observed that, spot gold price is highly co-related with E/U - they reached top and bottom almost at the same date for a mid-term trend(one to 4 months) .
Yes my brother you have a valid point there. I can tell you're doing your homework - intermarket relationship - that's the key.

Peace
Peace
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