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  • #50,541
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:52pm Nov 15, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting gene22
Here is a likely scenario INMO there is a time and a price point as well. This could be a potential wolf wave, the 5th touch could go a bit lower, let's see. The prefered option is still to be short till the end of this month at least. The 8hr momentum is bullish, the 4hr is showing mixed to bearish, and that I believe could support the above mentioned scenario
I like it, Gene. And with that being a 4H chart, if I am counting the bars correctly, it looks like the down move might not begin until Monday. Good work.

M2B
  • #50,542
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:59pm Nov 15, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting jbandwater
Gene --

Last week you said that tomorrow would be significant in that GBP/JPY would have a "Major Fall" to 222.00...

Is this still your forecast?
As far as the time point goes tomorrow is still the the day that it falls on, it can deviate by a day so there is a possibility for monday. That said, time points can either reverse the move, stagnate it or accelerate it, I'm still short and will be for a while. Judging by several other factors like Dow for example, I can definetelly see a fall to around 12700-12750 area, we are in a 3rd downleg of a bear wave down and tomorrow looks like the selloff might come. We are also in the 3rd leg of the g/u fall, the problem that I see is that the g/u keeps leaving gaps, there is one on the daily at 2.0890, that's significant, there is also one on the 5min at 2.0515, that must close INMO, there is also divergence all over the place pointing higher on g/u, also I don't see the y/u completing the upward correction yet, it could be over but, I haven't see any significant resistance that stopped it, so I think it still has room to go a bit. In any case g/y also really didn't reach the 50fib, a little unsure that it gather enough momentum for a free fall as I see happening later, so I'm cautiously holding on to my shorts and looking for some significant higher levels to add more. If you look back in 1998 you'll see that the geppy fell almost 4000 pips in one month, we are not there yet, so the fall should still come inmo this month. If it won't well, then it will be time to reavaluate the scenario, but not untill the end of the month. Btw, the 26th and the 12/1 are also significant dates, it could be that will get a little lower, correct back up and then fall. But I do expect a short term reversal up on the 1st, all we got to do is wait and see.
Ohh one more thing the Cad is usually the front runner, and right now it has a perfect completed 5th wave. It must correct, at least for a short time, so the dollar has to weaken as well. See there are a lot of scenarious and they all have to be techically sound and in unisom for something big to happen, I don't see unisom yet, almost, but not yet. Tomorrow we shall see
  • #50,543
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:04pm Nov 15, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting my2buoys
MM,

If you click on the chart, a magnifying glass should come up on your cursor allowing you to magnify the chart enough to see the prices.

M2B
yes, i normally can but with this image i cant. i know ur sick of me m2b
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #50,544
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:14pm Nov 15, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting moneymagnet
yes, i normally can but with this image i cant. i know ur sick of me m2b
I just tried, it works,make sure you have the pop up blocker off, that might be your problem
  • #50,545
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:50pm Nov 15, 2007 5:50pm
Quoting gene22
As far as the time point goes tomorrow is still the the day that it falls on, it can deviate by a day so there is a possibility for monday. That said, time points can either reverse the move, stagnate it or accelerate it, I'm still short and will be for a while. Judging by several other factors like Dow for example, I can definetelly see a fall to around 12700-12750 area, we are in a 3rd downleg of a bear wave down and tomorrow looks like the selloff might come. We are also in the 3rd leg of the g/u fall, the problem that I see is that the g/u keeps leaving gaps, there is one on the daily at 2.0890, that's significant, there is also one on the 5min at 2.0515, that must close INMO, there is also divergence all over the place pointing higher on g/u, also I don't see the y/u completing the upward correction yet, it could be over but, I haven't see any significant resistance that stopped it, so I think it still has room to go a bit. In any case g/y also really didn't reach the 50fib, a little unsure that it gather enough momentum for a free fall as I see happening later, so I'm cautiously holding on to my shorts and looking for some significant higher levels to add more. If you look back in 1998 you'll see that the geppy fell almost 4000 pips in one month, we are not there yet, so the fall should still come inmo this month. If it won't well, then it will be time to reavaluate the scenario, but not untill the end of the month. Btw, the 26th and the 12/1 are also significant dates, it could be that will get a little lower, correct back up and then fall. But I do expect a short term reversal up on the 1st, all we got to do is wait and see.
Ohh one more thing the Cad is usually the front runner, and right now it has a perfect completed 5th wave. It must correct, at least for a short time, so the dollar has to weaken as well. See there are a lot of scenarious and they all have to be techically sound and in unisom for something big to happen, I don't see unisom yet, almost, but not yet. Tomorrow we shall see
thanks for the great analysis....these are the posts that really help beginners because it allows us to see how an experienced trader interprets and pieces together the overwhelming amount of data that affects the currency markets. right now my biggest problem is knowing what to look at and when.
  • #50,546
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:57pm Nov 15, 2007 5:57pm
Quoting gene22
As far as the time point goes tomorrow is still the the day that it falls on, it can deviate by a day so there is a possibility for monday. That said, time points can either reverse the move, stagnate it or accelerate it, I'm still short and will be for a while. Judging by several other factors like Dow for example, I can definetelly see a fall to around 12700-12750 area, we are in a 3rd downleg of a bear wave down and tomorrow looks like the selloff might come. We are also in the 3rd leg of the g/u fall, the problem that I see is that the g/u keeps leaving gaps, there is one on the daily at 2.0890, that's significant, there is also one on the 5min at 2.0515, that must close INMO, there is also divergence all over the place pointing higher on g/u, also I don't see the y/u completing the upward correction yet, it could be over but, I haven't see any significant resistance that stopped it, so I think it still has room to go a bit. In any case g/y also really didn't reach the 50fib, a little unsure that it gather enough momentum for a free fall as I see happening later, so I'm cautiously holding on to my shorts and looking for some significant higher levels to add more. If you look back in 1998 you'll see that the geppy fell almost 4000 pips in one month, we are not there yet, so the fall should still come inmo this month. If it won't well, then it will be time to reavaluate the scenario, but not untill the end of the month. Btw, the 26th and the 12/1 are also significant dates, it could be that will get a little lower, correct back up and then fall. But I do expect a short term reversal up on the 1st, all we got to do is wait and see.
Ohh one more thing the Cad is usually the front runner, and right now it has a perfect completed 5th wave. It must correct, at least for a short time, so the dollar has to weaken as well. See there are a lot of scenarious and they all have to be techically sound and in unisom for something big to happen, I don't see unisom yet, almost, but not yet. Tomorrow we shall see
Gene, what is the main way that you are calculating your time points? The link you gave a couple days ago just briefly describes the Fibonacci time zones and spiral calendar. Are you using either of those for these projections? Or are you more basing it on wave theories?
  • #50,547
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:57pm Nov 15, 2007 5:57pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
thanks for the great analysis....these are the posts that really help beginners because it allows us to see how an experienced trader interprets and pieces together the overwhelming amount of data that affects the currency markets. right now my biggest problem is knowing what to look at and when.
If you are starting out, look at one pair and one pait only, if it's g/y I would sugest also looking at y/u and g/u, but concentrate only on one pair. When you get to the point that you'll be able to analyse it and see exactly where it is going to go and WHY, then you'll be ready to ,obe on to other paires. But untill you know one like the back of your hand, it's patterns, what it likes to do, what time frames it is most active, what affects it, why, and so on, my advise would be to just concentrate on one. After a while, you'll be surprised at your own accuracy, 2-3 years give or take, of intensive studying
  • #50,548
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:04pm Nov 15, 2007 6:04pm
Quoting gene22
As far as the time point goes tomorrow is still the the day that it falls on, it can deviate by a day so there is a possibility for monday...In any case g/y also really didn't reach the 50fib, a little unsure that it gather enough momentum for a free fall as I see happening later
Thanks for bringing this point up again, Gene. I had mentioned it sometime yesterday in a post. That high point is just kind of hung out there in the middle of nowhere. I could not find a significant EMA or anything to justify price not hitting the 50 Fib. My chart shows it came up about 30 pips short. That's not a virtual touch even for GBP/JPY in my opinion. I'm looking for 232.80 (the 50 Fib) and possibly even 234.80 (the 61.8 Fib) before a bigger move down. As you stated, for a big down to occur, more sellers have to be picked up from higher price points. Keep up the awesome chart posting, bro.

M2B
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  • #50,549
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:05pm Nov 15, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting brucehvn
Gene, what is the main way that you are calculating your time points? The link you gave a couple days ago just briefly describes the Fibonacci time zones and spiral calendar. Are you using either of those for these projections? Or are you more basing it on wave theories?
I incorporate the time points just like you would look for a confluence in price, like fibs, s/r lines, sma's, etc. It is the same with time I look for confluences, with many different analyses, attempting to use Gann and some time points have a lot more significance than others, just like a weekly fib,or sma, would have my preference over a daily, and so forth. Unless you can really read the price action, don't venture in to time as you will not get the effect that you want, inmo. Learn to crawl, walk, trot, run, and then you can sprint. if you miss any of those stages you'll only be cheating yourself, TRERE ARE NO shortcuts in this bussiness, you can't cheat, and the only person to pay the price at the end of the day will be you
  • #50,550
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:11pm Nov 15, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting gene22
I incorporate the time points ......Learn to crawl, walk, trot, run, and then you can sprint. if you miss any of those stages you'll only be cheating yourself, TRERE ARE NO shortcuts in this bussiness, you can't cheat, and the only person to pay the price at the end of the day will be you
Solid Gene, just plain solid. Your contributions to this thread are just fantastic!

good trades to you my friend!
  • #50,551
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:11pm Nov 15, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting gene22
If you are starting out, look at one pair and one pait only, if it's g/y....
gene , 98 fall was the asia crisis , only event of such magnitude can give such massive fall ... i truly believe technicals are pointing downwards this month , and backed by the fundamental conviction that the us is entering recession ... the thing is wont the yen be intervened when we see a downfall ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #50,552
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:23pm Nov 15, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting my2buoys
Thanks for bringing this point up again, Gene. I had mentioned it sometime yesterday in a post. That high point is just kind of hung out there in the middle of nowhere. I could not find a significant EMA or anything to justify price not hitting the 50 Fib. My chart shows it came up about 30 pips short. That's not a virtual touch even for GBP/JPY in my opinion. I'm looking for 232.80 (the 50 Fib) and possibly even 234.80 (the 61.8 Fib) before a bigger move down. As you stated, for a big down to occur, more sellers have to be picked up from higher price points. Keep up the awesome chart posting, bro.

M2B
Thank you M2B, from your mouth to God's ear, I hope that this is the case, but as you well know it is not always the case when the scenario plays out according to plan. This weeks PA, got me a little frustrated, I was expecting a different scenario, added more shorts ar 231.10 and 229.90, but closed all of them around 225-226 area, looking back perhaps a little too optimistic that the price will bounce back up for a reload. I still got 60% all the way from the top , but would really hate not being able to add at reasonable levels and missout on the once in a decade move, so a little frustrated, if tomorrow will turn out to be the fall(hope not), I'll be blaming myself for closing the shorts for a quick gain for a while. Greed is a dangerous thing
  • #50,553
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:24pm Nov 15, 2007 6:24pm
Quoting gene22
I just tried, it works,make sure you have the pop up blocker off, that might be your problem
perfect. that was the problem.

thanks
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #50,554
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:40pm Nov 15, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting maheswara
gene , 98 fall was the asia crisis , only event of such magnitude can give such massive fall ... i truly believe technicals are pointing downwards this month , and backed by the fundamental conviction that the us is entering recession ... the thing is wont the yen be intervened when we see a downfall ?
The intervention is a fancy word to scare the people that don't know what it really is, it never works and price always has it's way. I started out in 1992, in 1993 yen hit 100 with clinton in the white house, there was a lot of politics involved. It was all over the news "yen will never, ever, ever get below a 100" it tried boj was intervening almost twice, 3 times a week, it got to 113, guess what, you see that low of 79.50, it did. I knew a guy, he was a doctor, a very wealthy one. At that time there was no internet trading like today, we filled out pink slips, and placed the orders with a dealer in Hong Kong. This character, was making some very good money on the DM, he thought he was the next financial genious, well he started bying the yen/dollar, I mean he really started buying at around 100, the BOJ was intervening so as soon as the price would dip they would interven for 200-300 pips up, the price would dip, they would intervene again. This idiot kept buying all the way to 113, he thought it will get to 123, he kept bying when it started crashing down as well. He had to meet margin calls every day, he lost everything, and I mean everything I think he even borrowed against his medical practice. When it hit 95, he had no more money left, he came to the office with a gun, all crazy and almost shot the owner of that place because he told him that everything has been liquidated. So, intervention you say, great, would love to see this again, lots of stupid crazy, easiest pips you can make
  • #50,555
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:49pm Nov 15, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting gene22
The intervention is a fancy word to scare the people that don't know what it really is, it never works and price always has it's way. I started out in 1992, in 1993 yen hit 100 with clinton in the white house, there was a lot of politics involved. It was all over the news "yen will never, ever, ever get below a 100" it tried boj was intervening almost twice, 3 times a week, it got to 113, guess what, you see that low of 79.50, it did. I knew a guy, he was a doctor, a very wealthy one. At that time there was no internet trading like today, we filled out pink slips, and placed the orders with a dealer in Hong Kong. This character, was making some very good money on the DM, he thought he was the next financial genious, well he started bying the yen/dollar, I mean he really started buying at around 100, the BOJ was intervening so as soon as the price would dip they would interven for 200-300 pips up, the price would dip, they would intervene again. This idiot kept buying all the way to 113, he thought it will get to 123, he kept bying when it started crashing down as well. He had to meet margin calls every day, he lost everything, and I mean everything I think he even borrowed against his medical practice. When it hit 95, he had no more money left, he came to the office with a gun, all crazy and almost shot the owner of that place because he told him that everything has been liquidated. So, intervention you say, great, would love to see this again, lots of stupid crazy, easiest pips you can make
lol , nice story , i was still in kindergarten back in 92 , anyway thanks for the insight about intervention
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #50,556
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:02pm Nov 15, 2007 7:02pm
I really dont see this going up anytime real real soon.

I realize momentum is bullish and technicals say it should jump. I too am not comfortable that it didnt retrace 50%, also missed my TP by 27 pips because it didn't

Regression and other indicators still point south for me. Usd/jpy is stuck below 111.00 and cable is tanking I don't see that it has the pepper to rocket up. There are emas in the way too.

I could be entirely wrong, but I am still short for the time being, on the geppy and cable. Going to ride this train like a hobo.
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  • #50,557
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:18pm Nov 15, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting lepiricus
I really dont see this going up anytime real real soon.

I realize momentum is bullish and technicals say it should jump. I too am not comfortable that it didnt retrace 50%, also missed my TP by 27 pips because it didn't

Regression and other indicators still point south for me. Usd/jpy is stuck below 111.00 and cable is tanking I don't see that it has the pepper to rocket up. There are emas in the way too.

I could be entirely wrong, but I am still short for the time being, on the geppy and cable. Going to ride this train like a hobo.
Hi Lep,

What indicator are you using for your polynomial regression? Is it a pay indicator, or is it one you can share with us?

Bruce
  • #50,558
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:19pm Nov 15, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting brucehvn
Hi Lep,

What indicator are you using for your polynomial regression? Is it a pay indicator, or is it one you can share with us?

Bruce
Its one from the private portion of forex-tsd, so its technically a pay indicator. The elite section of forex-tsd has very interesting things, its worth the $12 a month for access imo.

The regression indicator I am using I've found is very accurate for TF 4hr and higher, anything less and its not so great. It moves too much.
  • #50,559
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:28pm Nov 15, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting lepiricus
Its one from the private portion of forex-tsd, so its technically a pay indicator. The elite section of forex-tsd has very interesting things, its worth the $12 a month for access imo.

The regression indicator I am using I've found is very accurate for TF 4hr and higher, anything less and its not so great. It moves too much.
Here is a screenshot of the weekly, we had a bounce off the 2nd deviation line that has confluence with the 100sma. There is a 95% statistical chance that price will bounce of the 2nd deviation line and a 99% chance it will bounce off the 3rd deviation line (red one).

This weekly screen shot is teliing me next week will probably be a bull week with price returning to the 234 area of midline regression and 50 ema confluence. Will it happen? I dunno. I just keep it in the back of my mind.
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  • #50,560
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:11pm Nov 15, 2007 8:11pm
I like that regression indicator,appreciate the regular updates..it helps.
I'm going to check out that ''elite'' section at forex-tsd.
Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
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