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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #50,421
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:31am Nov 15, 2007 8:31am
DOW shall end the day with a rally, just my opinion.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #50,422
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:32am Nov 15, 2007 8:32am
DOW not having the desired downtrend effect on GJ .Any ideas infact its going up
  • #50,423
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:34am Nov 15, 2007 8:34am
I hear that...suks for mortgage companies and car companies I guess but inflation still on rise (albeit slightly) and losses posted recently less than expected by major banks (could be due to no change in reporting laws though and they may be hiding biger losses for 1st Q of '08 but who knows.... but its weird how all this doom and gllom and the market doesnt really respond too much maybe because the overall economy APPEARS to be dealing well with credit crisis and other parts of economy doing well (like us companies that have interests in foreeign international investment) I think the bbest approach is to take the usd one day at a time.... today good news data out = usd has some legs (for now) tommorow is another story..... U must remember also that the market had priced in a .25 basis cut even tho bernakke iindicated that there will be NO CUT in december....so maybe the usd will retrace up till december meeting.... the fed controls the usd and all the noise (like subprime cpi data etc are just factors to determine the feds next move......) agains 1 day at a time...today the data news is most important to banks institutions etc. (IMO) that are trying to determine bernakes december stance.... right now its day by day i think and the subprime and credit news will have to be REALLY bad to really affect price of usd since we all know about it now and expect it...but the economy is still up in the air...bernakke is worried about inflation if u listen to him and he is very optimistc when he speaks..... makes me think he will leave rates alone in december even tho the market has alsost already priced in a cut....but we'll see what he says as we get closer....day by day is the way! today overriding concern is core cpi data...... just my thoughts
  • #50,424
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:36am Nov 15, 2007 8:36am
Karmo, need some patience pill running out of them need to pop one right now!
  • #50,425
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:37am Nov 15, 2007 8:37am
Quoting wired2199
As for the spreading problems in credit markets, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that GMAC's home lending unit, ResCap, is in danger of violating terms of loan agreements due to declines in the value of its loan portfolio. The paper said that could lead lenders to demand immediate payment of its loans and even force the unit into bankruptcy protection. GMAC is 49 percent owned by General Motors (Charts, Fortune 500), which last week reported a much bigger than forecast operating loss due greatly to problems at ResCap, and 51 percent owned by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, which took another hit from credit market woes Wednesday.

The United Arab Emirates may end the dirham's 30-year-old peg to the dollar and link it to a basket of currencies, said central bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi.
The falling dollar will trigger a ``review'' of the U.A.E.'s dollar peg, al-Suwaidi said in an interview in Gwacheon, South Korea today. The plan is ``not to drop the dollar peg, but maybe to reduce it to a basket which will consist of more dollars, but not totally 100 percent,'' he said.

``There does seem to be a shift going away from the dollar structurally across the board. We therefore don't see any reasons to jump in and buy the dollar.''


Some more doom and gloom.

WOW that would be HUGE!!!!!!! omg watch out for dollar drop SCARY!!!
  • #50,426
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:04am Nov 15, 2007 9:04am
Quoting karmostaji
I feel lonely being the only one here long with my SL in profit
I'm long with +10SL profit... Welcome to the club Karmo.
Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #50,427
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:13am Nov 15, 2007 9:13am
I see the session ending @ 225.35/40 or lower . . .

If futures end in the red then we could see a rapid sell -off at the start of the Asian session since they haven't had a chance to partake in the down move yet.

Also, NY typically retest the London lows and the fact that "geppy" is finding a hard time mounting a rally and getting back above 227.00 further suggest to me that a retest of the lows or lower may happen later in the session.

My other reasoning is that USD/JPY is in a down trend and has not tested its absolute low yet. GU has broken important support @ 2.500 which looks to have turned resistance and is threatening to breach support @ 2.4020/30. If it does then the next stop is down toward 2.0300's which could pull "geppy" down to new lows. . .

If it makes it above 227, I see 227.65/70's as the high but nothing much more than that.

Good luck on your trades today and we'll see how this plays out. . .
  • #50,428
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:17am Nov 15, 2007 9:17am
224 is looking so bleak now
  • #50,429
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:24am Nov 15, 2007 9:24am
Quoting dagoods
just wanted to rub it in that i got a nice trade with the usd/chf on that last spike to the plus guess it pays to gamble sometimes
yeah, good for you. If you like gambling, you're in right place. The more power to you.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #50,430
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:26am Nov 15, 2007 9:26am
I can see that the best way to make money is to go in the opposite direction that is being discussed in this room.

J
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #50,431
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:29am Nov 15, 2007 9:29am
Quoting dagoods
no problem sorry for getting off topic... if u go back to 5 am u will see my analysis i said bearish on gpb but waiting on usd data to confirm i simply was corresponding with peter b4 he went to bed b4 with the chf trade thats all i wont post anything but gpb from now on just thought u all might want a good gamble I am short gpb/jpy right now and i am on the plus side 50 pips in the black and going to hold that maybe all day depending on what i see (i am also plus long on usd/cad and usd/chf as i told ya'all earlier..... but you don't give a crap and rightly so) but back to gpb i like gpb/usd short and gpb/jpy short and i would look for chances to get on short side today using stochastics on charts just my humble opinion
That's very good dude, starting to look ahead instead of minute to minute. I've been short on GU @ 2.1088.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #50,432
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:31am Nov 15, 2007 9:31am
Quoting winterwhite
dagoods:

I, and most others, come here to learn. As a new trader, I appreciate
the work that the successful, more experienced, traders are doing on
this thread. It was because of posts like yours that one of those
experienced traders left this thread. Unfortunately, his leaving
was a loss to all of us. We also see that some of the other mature
traders are not here as frequently. Please reread the thread's
purpose and realize that it was placed here so that we may
learn from mature experienced ones. With all due respect, please
use it to watch and learn as others are doing. If you feel the need
to post about your trades, use the journal section of this forum.

Thank you
I sincerely apologize to all of you and I will not post any more. Good luck to you all
  • #50,433
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:35am Nov 15, 2007 9:35am
Guys, are we heading north or south on G/J. Looks like G/J made 76% retracement and started to go up. Is that the end of the down move? Shall we start building long term position on the up side?
  • #50,434
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:42am Nov 15, 2007 9:42am
North or South?

It depends on 2 things I think.

cable is stuck below crucial 2.0500 resistance now limiting upward movement. usd/jpy is below 111.00. Unless 111.00 can be breached or 2.0500 on cable can be breached we will be bearish.

imho usd/jpy has weaker resistance to overcome than cable.

I'm still holding my shorts for the moment.
  • #50,435
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:43am Nov 15, 2007 9:43am
both the U/J and GBP/JPY hit thier 50% retrace from the move down and are forming bearish gartley patterns on the smaller timeframes so we shall see.

Shawn
  • #50,436
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:49am Nov 15, 2007 9:49am
Quoting currinexfx
Guys, are we heading north or south on G/J. Looks like G/J made 76% retracement and started to go up. Is that the end of the down move? Shall we start building long term position on the up side?

Looks like a dead cat bounce. The technicals are bearish - H&S on weekly, and the credit issue is far from resolved. I'm still expecting further moves down in the coming days/weeks.
  • #50,437
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:51am Nov 15, 2007 9:51am
Quoting currinexfx
Guys, are we heading north or south on G/J. Looks like G/J made 76% retracement and started to go up. Is that the end of the down move? Shall we start building long term position on the up side?
noone can answer that question! I don't try to pick tops and bottoms, i just go with the trend.
  • #50,438
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:51am Nov 15, 2007 9:51am
Here is a look at the 8H and 12H charts. You can see that since 3Am EST (0800 GMT) the 8H chart Momentum has been strongly bearish, while the 12H chart Momentum, which changed at 7AM (1200 GMT), is strongly bullish. These two candles have been overlapped for 4 hours. Unless the new 8H candle, which changes in about 10 minutes, is strongly bearish again (which I don't think will happen), the 12H Momentum will begin to play out and take this thing up, possibly way up. I don't like the fact that the most recent retacement up missed the 50 Fib line by 30 or so pips. To me, that is not a virutal touch even on GBP/JPY, and there were no other lines up there that give credence to it stopping there. I know it was close to the Weekly 5SMA, but not close enough IMO. I think we could easily see this thing go back up and hit that 50 Fib around 232.70, and maybe even some line above that. The 12H momentum is very bullish. Let's see what happens.

M2B
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 8h.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 12h.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #50,439
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:02am Nov 15, 2007 10:02am
Quoting my2buoys
Here is a look at the 8H and 12H charts. You can see that since 3Am EST (0800 GMT) the 8H chart Momentum has been strongly bearish, while the 12H chart Momentum, which changed at 7AM (1200 GMT), is strongly bullish. These two candles have been overlapped for 4 hours. Unless the new 8H candle, which changes in about 10 minutes, is strongly bearish again (which I don't think will happen), the 12H Momentum will begin to play out and take this thing up, possibly way up. I don't like the fact that the most recent retacement up missed the 50 Fib line by 30 or so pips. To me, that is not a virutal touch even on GBP/JPY, and there were no other lines up there that give credence to it stopping there. I know it was close to the Weekly 5SMA, but not close enough IMO. I think we could easily see this thing go back up and hit that 50 Fib around 232.70, and maybe even some line above that. The 12H momentum is very bullish. Let's see what happens.

M2B
good to see you mate.. keep up the good work
  • #50,440
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:11am Nov 15, 2007 10:11am
Thanks for the post M2B.

Can I ask how you are getting 8hr and 12hr charts in MT4? I see the ODL in the bottom left corner for your screenshots and think that may have something to do with it.

I ask because I want to start playing with 8hr and 12hr charts but dont want to change software necessarily. I like MT4.
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