Relax and be happy.
- #103
- Nov 11, 2007 3:15pm Nov 11, 2007 3:15pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
The normal state no longer exists. The Bear is Back.
Waitaminit...you can't change the rules in the middle of the game!
Wasn't this supposed to be a multi-decade long long long term condition to be exploited?
Aren't you bailing on your own idea if you let this little retrace scare you out of the never ending ever-trend normal state thesis?
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #106
- Nov 14, 2007 5:08pm Nov 14, 2007 5:08pm
Newstrader, yes you are correct, the "normal state of the economy is expansion". There is only one small problem that we are dealing with now. We are entering a Grand SuperCycle Bear stage, no one alive had seen it, yes the one that runs for centuries, yes there will be periods when the carry would work, but those are going to be rallies in the overall down market. .... I hope that I'm wrong, but just to show you how strongly I believe in this, I moved to Russia, after living in LA, sunny Cal for 20 years, sold houses, investment properties, my ranch, bussiness, everything... These convictions are not based on a figment of my imagination but on hard facts.
Never said that. I said that the normal state of the economy is expansion. Besides, what's happening now is temporary. Things will turn and the norman state will exist again.
Things look bad now, but they are not staying that way. The normal state is still expansion. That doesn't mean the economy can't exist in an "abnormal state'-it does occasionally.
The bottom will be hit when house prices fall and demand picks up. The inventory overhang will work down-that will be the place to buy again and it will happen before the economy comes out of the malaise because housing leads the economy into and out of recession.
Inflation is the curse of the 'Haves'. The 'Have-nots' love inflation even if they don't realise it because it erodes their debts. Inflation also erodes the value of money and hence the Haves don't like it and neither do central governments. However a little inflation is a good thing because it weeds-out the poor performers and leaves the better businesses to really shine, and that drives the stock markets and any leveraged or derived growth instruments.
There comes a point when the glittering mega-economies become way too pricey for their ordinary citizens to be able to afford to live comfortably and a decline sets in. A smart person such as gene22 (I hope so for his sake anyway) can step sideways into the up-coming or left-behind economic zones that will flourish whilst the rest of us struggle.
Think this is all vapour-ware? The last economic and vibrant colossus (apart from the British that is
) to bite the dust and not recover even today was the Roman Empire. The only civilization that I am aware of which appears to have come full-circle is the Chinese, and that has taken a goodly few years.
Minesweeper target: 284
I assume you have moved to Russia because you perceive that part of the world to be relatively immune to, or maybe just less likely to suffer from, the effects of the GSCB stage? Are there warm and sunny parts in Russia?
IMHaCO economic expansion on its own does nothing for forex rates. The Yen is suffering even though the Japanese economy is expanding, the problem is that other economies are expanding a lot faster. Until this year the US economy has blitzed ahead, but Cable is around 2 and has been around 2 for a long time, heck it was only 2.4 back in my teens (whenever that was).
Inflation is the curse of the 'Haves'. The 'Have-nots' love inflation even if they don't realise it because it erodes their debts. Inflation also erodes the value of money and hence the Haves don't like it and neither do central governments. However a little inflation is a good thing because it weeds-out the poor performers and leaves the better businesses to really shine, and that drives the stock markets and any leveraged or derived growth instruments.
There comes a point when the glittering mega-economies become way too pricey for their ordinary citizens to be able to afford to live comfortably and a decline sets in. A smart person such as gene22 (I hope so for his sake anyway) can step sideways into the up-coming or left-behind economic zones that will flourish whilst the rest of us struggle.
Think this is all vapour-ware? The last economic and vibrant colossus (apart from the British that is
- #108
- Nov 15, 2007 9:11am Nov 15, 2007 9:11am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #110
- Edited 12:03pm Nov 15, 2007 11:51am | Edited 12:03pm
- Joined May 2005 | Status: I am not your bro | 1,302 Posts
- #111
- Nov 17, 2007 4:43pm Nov 17, 2007 4:43pm
Hi Primate, well there are sunny parts in Russia, but i currently live in Sankt-Petersburg, that's where i came from 20 years ago. There were several factors, I started seeing the bubble back in 2004, sold everythinh off in the middle of 2006 on the last spike up, got married to a girl from Sankt-Petersburg, was intoduced to enormous opportunities here through "family ties", and witnessing everyday the shenanigans in the econ reports, fraud in the financial sector, etc... just got discusted with all of it and weighted my options. Moved here, the trading hours are great its GMT+3, I have a lot of free time, perfect schedule, great food. The only part that sucks is the weather,especially now. Not a big deal for a few years, and then somewhere in the tropics.
Best of luck for the future.
Minesweeper target: 284
- #114
- Last Post: Nov 19, 2007 9:42am Nov 19, 2007 9:42am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
Actually, I'm looking in to some yacht designs now, it takes 2-4 years to have a custom yacht designed and built, perfect time to start now.