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Commodity Currencies

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 14, 2007 12:33pm Nov 14, 2007 12:33pm
With the increased volatility in the New Zealand Dollar (aka Kiwi), the Australian Dollar (aka Aussie) and the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) it's insane not to focus some time and money into analyzing and trading these pairs.

I "specialize" in the Kiwi using the basics. Fibs, Ma's and intermarket analysis (Gold, Equities, Oil and the Yen) Of course the real trick to being profitable is using them correctly.

This is why I created this thread. To talk about applications of various TA methods on the commodity currencies specifically. The only other markets that should be discussed are markets that affect these pairs directly(see reference above)

If no one ever posts a trade that would be fine with me. I would like this thread to be geared toward discussions of Technical Analysis methods specifically on these pairs. To discuss scenarios using current market conditions is absolutely welcome as well but not required.

I would prefer this thread to be viewed as a "think tank" as opposed to a log of trade recommendations, I told you so posts and Look how much money I just made posts.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #2
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:50pm Nov 14, 2007 12:50pm
After a period of consolidation, like we've got going on now, I've had success in the past measuring when a move is beginning by identifying MA's that have been shown respect in the recent past that now price moves through.

We're looking at a consolidation period of 16 hours and counting now. I'm close to seeing a move starting in the Kiwi. It might take 15 mins, it might take seven hours for it to start. :
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #3
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:51pm Nov 14, 2007 12:51pm
Don't forget that there's major NZD data coming out later on in the day
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #4
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:54pm Nov 14, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Don't forget that there's major NZD data coming out later on in the day

Feel free to discuss what levels to look for, in your opinion, if the data is positive, negative, or neutral.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #5
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:51pm Nov 14, 2007 1:51pm
Right now the 7630 level is supporting, if the data comes in strong I see a test of 7764 again which is where i saw the rapid decline start.If the data comes in weak, perhaps some profit taking to the previous low of 7527
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:18pm Nov 14, 2007 2:18pm
MT and LT Fibo's are working very well for me with the Kiwi. Getting confirmation of the retracement levels has been the key, as it's not always the obvious hi/lo.

It IS the hi/lo on the 4HR that the market is currently respecting. 50% of the 7891 - 7442 move comes in at 7667 and has been resistance for the past 17 hours. A spike above is not enough to confirm higher, I need an hourly or 4HR bar to close above 7675 will open the door for 7720, which is the 38.2 of the referenced move.

Also, 7670/7730 band is a monthly fibo extension and has been big time resistance previously.

Recently, 7738 was tough resistance.

I still favor downside, once a top is established, for the rest of the week.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #7
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:22pm Nov 14, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting TexasforEX
MT and LT Fibo's are working very well for me with the Kiwi. Getting confirmation of the retracement levels has been the key, as it's not always the obvious hi/lo.

It IS the hi/lo on the 4HR that the market is currently respecting. 50% of the 7891 - 7442 move comes in at 7667 and has been resistance for the past 17 hours. A spike above is not enough to confirm higher, I need an hourly or 4HR bar to close above 7675 will open the door for 7720, which is the 38.2 of the referenced move.

Also, 7670/7730 band is a monthly fibo extension and has been big time resistance previously.

Recently, 7738 was tough resistance.

I still favor downside, once a top is established, for the rest of the week.
Good stuff I did notice the 7738 resistance perhaps we can get a move either way post data.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #8
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:39pm Nov 14, 2007 6:39pm
There's a daily doji for Wednesday. it has a body of 2 pips. It's only a couple pips from the daily low. I've got numerous signals this is going lower and the fact this pair completely ignored favorable retail numbers shows nice downward pressure.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #9
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:41pm Nov 14, 2007 6:41pm
I love commodities currencies. My favorite is USD/CAD. I shorted loonie at around 1.18 in February whilst oil was around $55/barrel and held it till 1.00. I knew oil was going to appreciate, I just didn't know exactly when, so I just held it.
  • #10
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:44pm Nov 14, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting peterM
I love commodities currencies. My favorite is USD/CAD. I shorted loonie at around 1.18 in February whilst oil was around $55/barrel and held it till 1.00. I knew oil was going to appreciate, I just didn't know exactly when, so I just held it.

That's nice. Share some reasons why you "knew" oil would appreciate then or even better anything you "know" about oil currently
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #11
  • Nov 14, 2007 7:08pm Nov 14, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting TexasforEX
That's nice. Share some reasons why you "knew" oil would appreciate then or even better anything you "know" about oil currently
Well, increasing demand, decreasing supply. I think it can only go one way in the long term, but it can make some very sharp downturns, so you need to plan your risk accordingly. Countries like china are using more and more.

Also, there were inevitable conflicts with oil producing countries, and you only need the slightest suggestion of any threat to supply and it sky rockets.

As for the future, It's hard to call.. the trend it still up for oil, if it does continue to rise it could really cripple the US economy.
  • #12
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:52am Nov 15, 2007 5:52am
Got the move down in the London session, right now seems that data's not the issue as NZ data was strong. More risk aversion, perhaps another test of the lows at 7435
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #13
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:03am Nov 15, 2007 9:03am
The price is still respecting the 4Hr hi/lo Fibo's
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #14
  • Nov 15, 2007 11:27am Nov 15, 2007 11:27am
Are there any Aussie or Loonie traders out there? Care to jump in with some technicals or fundie analysis?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #15
  • Nov 16, 2007 10:18am Nov 16, 2007 10:18am
Kiwi's move back up to test the 61.8 at 7614 was disappointing and took the air out of any move lower for the rest of the week, barring an unexpected equity sell off this afternoon. 1 hr ADX was showing the beginning of a trend. Perhaps it's not a "trend" until 2 HR or 4 HR moves above 25.....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #16
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:22am Jan 21, 2008 12:22am
To those few members who actually took a look at the beginning of this thread...I'm back from a 3 week vacation and then after the holidays,etc....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #17
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:27am Jan 21, 2008 12:27am
This week, starting Jan 20 I'm expecting a mild continuation of the risk aversion theme early on. It won't take Kiwi out of the daily channel and here down to 7505 is a good buy with a hold time of up to 3 weeks (earns interest!)

Later on this week, I am forecasting some optimism returning to the equity markets (whether or not it is justified is a whole different conversation) because of the Fed's actions on the 30th (or sooner )

This will take alot of the pressure off the yen and swissy and help the high yielders. Basically will be carry trade positive.

Anyway, forecasts are like ##### coz everybody's got them. Trade nimble and know when you're right or wrong.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #18
  • Jan 21, 2008 8:09am Jan 21, 2008 8:09am
Things are looking very grim on the global financial scene. Last night was worse than I thought it would be. Unless kiwi can rally during NY, technically it is ready to fall. A move and close back above 7545 is needed to save this. If not 7545 should cap before it goes further..........
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #19
  • Jan 21, 2008 8:31am Jan 21, 2008 8:31am
Quoting TexasforEX
Things are looking very grim on the global financial scene. Last night was worse than I thought it would be. Unless kiwi can rally during NY, technically it is ready to fall. A move and close back above 7545 is needed to save this. If not 7545 should cap before it goes further..........
I've been short from the 100 ema and now looking for the 200 ma. It might bounce but should be breaking through soon.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #20
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:03pm Jan 21, 2008 2:03pm
Hey Dutch

As I type the fruit is turning rotten and falling off the tree. I shorted at 7502 and have no plans to take profit yet. 7370 is the last technical roadblock. 6800's could be in the cards before interest rate differentials take traction.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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