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The System (Irony included)

  • #361
  • Nov 14, 2007 8:11am Nov 14, 2007 8:11am
Quoting feb2865
Listen guy's I'll be out for some time, I'll probably come back late this afternoon EST time. My ford explorer 2001 got broken for the 4th time and my girlfriend( who's been buggin' me to death to get a new one along with my daughter( I tell you brother, women are not easy, but hey we can't live without them)) finally convinced me to go shop for a new one. I have an emotional attachment to that truck but I have no choice LOL.

Just a side note I wanted to share


Good luck everyone. I'll see you guys late today

Peace
Wow, Big Brother is Big Brother!

So your girlfriend and your daughter both want you to get a new car? Or your girlfriend wants a new car the same as your daughter's new car? Sorry for my port English.

  • #362
  • Nov 14, 2007 8:34am Nov 14, 2007 8:34am
Quoting feb2865
Oh yeah I wasn't sure

Thank a lot. We all should take a note on that.

Welcome to the club!!! feel yourself at home!!!


Peace

Thanks...I love this thread. I actually went long on E/U on the break of the reversal candle at 1.4630 when the V started forming on the Daily. This thread along with Jacko's thread is very powerful. Thanks feb for all you do!

Chris
  • #363
  • Nov 14, 2007 9:37am Nov 14, 2007 9:37am
Quoting Trader_V
I picked up my discounted Yen this morning. Attached are my charts. Take a look at them and see if you can see why and how. I will comment later.
Cheers
The reason as I would see it is the #3 on the 1-2-3 leg is hitting a resistance level from Aug 17. Entry when the low of the candle that hits the resistance is taken out.

Sound good?

(may I also ask, as a fellow metatrader user, who u use for your datafeed)
  • #364
  • Nov 14, 2007 10:30am Nov 14, 2007 10:30am
Quoting feb2865
Playin the breakout is valid. I don't do it 'cause I got burned in fractals before.
Exactly... in my case, I just accept the risk for the added pips on the moves that I catch early.

Quoting feb2865
for instance, I am riding e/u since aug 23. Still on the trade.
Kinda curious if you just took a longer term view there and didn't subscribe to stop placement at the last daily low. Yeah, see, that's how I manage my risk -- I don't put stops at the lows of daily... if anything, I'll put it 20-30 below, or I'll set stops at swings... I'm assuming that's how you played that particular trade...

I've been trading for a few years now and have found really that setting at swings, or trailing based on how much that particular market moves during the day really is the best way to manage my risk...
Mr. Trend
  • #365
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:04am Nov 14, 2007 11:04am
I thought I'd post this screenshot in this thread as well as in my journal, because I know that a lot of new traders always ask the proverbial question -- "When do we know the trend has reversed?"

Well first off, in the context of this thread, the trend would be the underlying movement of price on weekly and monthly timeframes.

Sometimes you can plot trendlines on the weekly, watch it get broken, then watch price correct back to the trendline and if it follows back down (as in this example), then you have a high probability of a longer term trend change.

Now... take a look at the screenshot.

In this case, we have a very distinct head and shoulders formation. If you know anything about chart patterns, you'll know that when the neckline breaks (teal line), you get big moves down. So it's ok to say, that if we see this break, get a correction to test the neckline again, and then it continues down, that we're probably heading into a long term range or bearish sentiment.

I hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Mr. Trend
  • #366
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:25am Nov 14, 2007 11:25am
Quoting Mr Trend
Exactly... in my case, I just accept the risk for the added pips on the moves that I catch early.

Kinda curious if you just took a longer term view there and didn't subscribe to stop placement at the last daily low. Yeah, see, that's how I manage my risk -- I don't put stops at the lows of daily... if anything, I'll put it 20-30 below, or I'll set stops at swings... I'm assuming that's how you played that particular trade...

I've been trading for a few years now and have found really that setting at swings, or trailing based on how much that particular market moves during the day really is the best way to manage my risk...
Thanks. That is great. Could you use some examples tell me your S/L method a little bit further? My biggest problem is stop loss setting. If I have a good position.The price always kissed my s/l and go further. While I have to buy back with a higher price. So, I widened my S/L, but this time market really turns another way --- if I narrowed S/L, I have less loss/more profit.

Thanks. Cheers.
  • #367
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:40am Nov 14, 2007 11:40am
Quoting Mr Trend
While it definitely is conservative, and can save you from false breakouts, do you find that you lose a lot of the move by waiting for the final candle to close, rather than just play the break?
Quoting feb2865
Playin the breakout is valid. I don't do it 'cause I got burned in fractals before.
Mr Trend,

Which candle are you referring to as to the one closing?

I am interpreting you are meaning the 3rd candle (because earlier posts have confirmed why we have to wait for the 2nd candle to close in order to make sure we enter at the breakout of that 2nd candle), thus it's the 2nd candle that feb is referring to as the closing one.

The 3rd candle (the entry candle) is the one that has to wait to breakout over the 2nd candle's high (or low if downtrend) before it's a signal to buy/sell. So, in essence, the 3rd candle is being played on the breakout, but OF the 2nd candle and NOT the previous Fractal.

I am interpreting feb's post in replying to you as he may be thinking you are referring to a breakout of the previous Fractal, NOT the 2nd candlestick.

I think you both are talking about two different things, lol

The breakout of the 3rd candle exceeding the 2nd candle then possibly waiting for some pullback on the 4hr to enter at a better discount on the 3rd candle, makes a lot of sense to me when I look at the overall picture and studying closely this method with the charts.

Also, this means that he may enter prior to the breakout of the previous Fractal, so in essence, he might be grabbing more pips before you are even entering if you are waiting to enter after the breakout of the previous Fractal. Please see my attached chart for a case such as this.

feb's entry would be the GREEN arrow (3rd candle, breakout of the 2nd candle's high), while your entry might be the ORANGE arrow (breakout of the previous Fractal).

Was this possibly what you were referring to (thus I have interpreted your post correctly)?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #368
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:51am Nov 14, 2007 11:51am
Quoting feb2865
some brokers are set for the bars to change at 00:00 GMT time, I believe that's 9:00 PM. EST If you're really looking to play a fractal, either on the breakout or confirmation, you could miss a move if your broker is set up for bar change at 12:00 midnight. You will have 3 hours of lag.

You could have a V shape formed, let say at 10:00 PM EST already in a 00:00 GMT while in a broker who's setup for a change in midnight, you will see just 1 bar/candle.
Ah, okay then

LOL, I was hoping I wasn't gonna have to put the whip to ya, thinking you originally meant entering before the confirmation of the breakout of the 2nd candle, lol :
  • #369
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:56am Nov 14, 2007 11:56am
Quoting Mr Trend
because I know that a lot of new traders always ask the proverbial question -- "When do we know the trend has reversed?"
Thank you, Mr Trend!!! That was very informative!

It's great to have experienced traders giving their expertise in this thread. Much appreciated! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hug.gif
  • #370
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:02pm Nov 14, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting Green_David
Thanks. That is great. Could you use some examples tell me your S/L method a little bit further? My biggest problem is stop loss setting. If I have a good position.The price always kissed my s/l and go further. While I have to buy back with a higher price. So, I widened my S/L, but this time market really turns another way --- if I narrowed S/L, I have less loss/more profit.

Thanks. Cheers.
I don't want to detract from what feb is telling you guys. But just keep it in the back of your head that there's many valid ways to trade... particularly with MM.

I simply look for swing highs or lows... usually, in the case of what feb is talking about, you will see the V pattern and then enter.. well, you place your stop at the lowest point in the V... that's your swing. I do that with all timeframes.

The theory is that if it breaks that low end, it's gonna keep going.
Mr. Trend
  • #371
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:04pm Nov 14, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting Cmartin371
I actually went long on E/U on the break of the reversal candle at 1.4630 when the V started forming on the Daily.
Chris -

Just be careful to not incur a situation like what I had described in Post #295

You want to wait for the close of the 2nd candle and enter on the 3rd candle only when it breaks the 2nd candle, because if you enter anywhere prior to that, it could end up being a bad situation (like what is depicted in the scenarios of the post I linked you to).

Read the two subsequent posts after that, as well, as feb confirms that this is the case and why he waits for the close of the 2nd candle and waits for the break.

You may get away with entering early sometimes, but in the long-run, getting confirmation is a much more safer, consistent, profitable method.
  • #372
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:08pm Nov 14, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting leighsww
Mr Trend,

Which candle are you referring to as to the one closing?
I am thinking along the same lines he is -- but the question was just taking the break or waiting to close. I am aggressive, I take the break... just wanted to see his viewpoint... I know people who do both, so...

All good..
Mr. Trend
  • #373
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:11pm Nov 14, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting leighsww
You may get away with entering early sometimes, but in the long-run, getting confirmation is a much more consistent, profitable method.
What it comes down to, and you are correct BTW, but what it comes down to is accepting the risk. If you accept the risk, then that's ok.

At the end of the day, it will often balance out. You will make more pips being aggressive, but may end up less with the fakeouts... while the conservative person will make less pips, but not be faked out as much.

It kinda evens out in the long run. The bad thing for new traders and why I always recommend that they be conservative, is that new traders willl say, "Oh, I'm aggressive", and what they really are is, "Undisciplined", which means your account gets blown.

The key to trading is to get your capital in the market when the probabilities are high and being aggressive on REALLY GOOD setups.

HENCE, why feb likes to play nice, clean, closed breaks... and that's why he says, "Get on the train!"...

It all comes down to accepting risk. If you can't accept the risk, you shouldn't put on the trade.
Mr. Trend
  • #374
  • Edited 2:23pm Nov 14, 2007 2:13pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I am thinking along the same lines he is -- but the question was just taking the break or waiting to close. I am aggressive, I take the break... just wanted to see his viewpoint... I know people who do both, so...

All good..
LOL, but he takes the break, as well, but of a candle, not of a Fractal, lol.

In my opinion, it does make a difference on clarifying what is being talked about, because to my mind, they are not really both the same and would be confusing to some.

But, it's okay . I was just mainly wanting to make sure you were comparing apples to apples, that's all, only because I did not get that when reading your post.

But, thank you for posting your views/way of thinking http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hug.gif, because each share anyone has to offer is bringing value to this thread.

Oh, and I am a major risk taker and very aggressive in most everything in my life (boy, can my husband, as well as my family and friends, tell ya, lol), however, I also try to weigh out the pros and cons in each situation that I am taking the risk/being aggressive to whether it would be more advantageous to/for me or not ... so the more logical/rational part of my mind takes over when the risk/aggressiveness might prove to be less advantageous in the long-run.

The bottom line for me is ... RESULTS. Nothing else matters if you are not getting positive/profitable results consistently. You can have decades of experience, be smart as a whip, a total optimist, but when the smoke and rainbows clear, the only naked truth, and the real quantifier of all things ... is RESULTS.

My biggest risk taking scenarios was with my business, and I had put in hundreds of thousands of $$ in it throughout my 28 years of running it. I've made bad decisions and loss a lot of money, mostly because of my risk-taking/aggressive behavior, lol, that were not advantageous to me/my business in the long-term, however, I have learned from it and I am moving on.

To me, money is just money, losing it is not going to kill me or ruin my life or my health, because my attitude is ... you can always make it back. So, I do not cry over spilled milk, I let it go and I move on.

But, because of my experiences with my business, I have come to realize that, for me, with this forex business, building gradually and then compounding will bring more advantageous, consistent and longer-term profitable results. Again, this is for me, and this is only my opinion.

I'm sure there are risk-taking, aggressive traders who can show consistent, profitable RESULTS, I don't know, but for most people, being successful and especially consistent in successful results normally comes from minimizing the risks as much as possible.

Anyway, again, these are just my opinions. Like you say, all is good
  • #375
  • Edited 2:38pm Nov 14, 2007 2:17pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting Mr Trend
but what it comes down to is accepting the risk. If you accept the risk, then that's ok.
Yes, I agree with you here. If you can't accept the risk, then you shouldn't be trading, lol. But, I still hold to the belief, that if you can get more consistent, profitable results with less risk, wouldn't your rational mind say, maybe that should be the way to go?

Quoting Mr Trend
At the end of the day, it will often balance out. You will make more pips being aggressive, but may end up less with the fakeouts... while the conservative person will make less pips, but not be faked out as much.
Actually, I don't see feb's method as actually taking less pips. I think that it has the potential to take a lot of pips, especially with "revolving" lot plays, lol (well, this is my strategy anyway, and I will have to see if it works, lol).

Quoting Mr Trend
It kinda evens out in the long run.
But does it really? How do we know for sure?

Most times, we can't really know if this is truly the case, because we don't really compare the two at the same time. If you can run both methods at the same time, side-by-side, and track your results, then I would say there would be a way to quantify this statement.

You know what would be FUN and a great test, to have a challenge to see which of the two methods would be more consistent and advantageous in the long-run, lol.

Quoting Mr Trend
The bad thing for new traders and why I always recommend that they be conservative, is that new traders willl say, "Oh, I'm aggressive", and what they really are is, "Undisciplined",
Yes, undisciplined is not a good thing. However, it is not prejudiced to only NEW traders, lol. I think there are many undisciplined seasoned traders, as well, don't you?

Quoting Mr Trend
The key to trading is to get your capital in the market when the probabilities are high and being aggressive on REALLY GOOD setups.
This I can agree with you, as well. Whether conservative or aggressive, getting into the market at the right time and place helps alot, surely. Now, your interpretation of a really good setup may be different than someone else's depending on your method. For feb's method, the good setup may be waiting for the confirmation to lessen the risk.

Quoting Mr Trend
It all comes down to accepting risk. If you can't accept the risk, you shouldn't put on the trade.
I, 100% agree with you on that one!

Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts, opinions and experience with us. Much appreciated! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hug.gif
  • #376
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:19pm Nov 14, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Exactly... in my case, I just accept the risk for the added pips on the moves that I catch early.

Kinda curious if you just took a longer term view there and didn't subscribe to stop placement at the last daily low. Yeah, see, that's how I manage my risk -- I don't put stops at the lows of daily... if anything, I'll put it 20-30 below, or I'll set stops at swings... I'm assuming that's how you played that particular trade...

I've been trading for a few years now and have found really that setting at swings, or trailing based on how much that particular market moves during the day really is the best way to manage my risk...

I am super-discretionary on my stop placements. I use swings. It all depends. The idea is to keep your stops away from the fire but not too far away. Sometimes I trail them sometimes I just let them put. I check on them every day.

Peace
Peace
  • #377
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:50pm Nov 14, 2007 2:50pm
I want to add one more thing to my previous post, lol ...

Everyone has to make the decision for themselves how much risk they can afford and what method suits their fancy.

So, if you can afford to be riskier and it's more your method/style to do so, then all the power to you, especially if you are getting the consistent, profitable RESULTS that you are happy with

Okay, that's all I have to say on the subject, lol (I'm sure some are saying, "Thank GAWD!" :, lol)
  • #378
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:53pm Nov 14, 2007 2:53pm
Risk has different meanings. I believe is a big word. How to define risk has been a matter of controversy in the past and still today.

I personally define risks

1) capital risk

2) Emotional risk.

3) Market risk

of course there's corporate risk, sector risk etc but that's not applicable here

the first two you can control. The third one is definitely out of control. When I started trading the first one was easy, the second one was a real pain.


Then you become profitable and the biggest risk of all is you.


I put a lot of weight on risk. I rather be late and take the whole swing.

Guys you need to assess how much risk you're willing to tolerate. If the swing is too high, then just lower your gear. Somebody told me once that there's a broker outhere that allows you to trade by units. I think that's wonderful.

Have a calculator handy for that. You go like "well the swing is 150 ticks( where I should place my stop), then according to my x % of my capital and my risk tolerance (emotional risk) I am willing to risk $$$$$....or ...that's too much I will wait for the next bus.

or G/J is too wild for me, I am going to trade E/U or whatever.

Daily low candles are good just be careful about news, reports etc, on the following day. They can shake you out of position just measure how long it is. If can use a swing even better.

Just remember, ultimately you're calling the shots. That's why I don't get attached to any market.

I do have problems letting go of cars...seriously.


Peace
Peace
  • #379
  • Nov 14, 2007 3:07pm Nov 14, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting feb2865
I put a lot of weight on risk. I rather be late and take the whole swing.

Guys you need to assess how much risk you're willing to tolerate. If the swing is too high, then just lower your gear. Somebody told me once that there's a broker outhere that allows you to trade by units. I think that's wonderful.

Have a calculator handy for that. You go like "well the swing is 150 ticks( where I should place my stop), then according to my x % of my capital and my risk tolerance (emotional risk) I am willing to risk $$$$$....or ...that's too much I will wait for the next bus.

or G/J is too wild for me, I am going to trade E/U or whatever.
EXACTLY!

I knew there was a reason I chose you to be my forex Mentor, lol
  • #380
  • Nov 14, 2007 3:09pm Nov 14, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting feb2865
I do have problems letting go of cars...seriously.
Well, this is why I'm not using you as my automobile Mentor, lol :
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