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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #49,961
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:38pm Nov 13, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting brucehvn
Wow, this is eerie to see the G/J flatlining during a strong bull DOW session. You'd think this was the Asian session.
Thanks for your contribution in waking it up! It is appreciated!

  • #49,962
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:39pm Nov 13, 2007 1:39pm
GJ pickingup steam just past 229 and crossed by a hair 50EMA on 1 hourly
  • #49,963
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:39pm Nov 13, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting my2buoys
The volume/volatility is almost non-existent right now. That is apparent by the way price is/isn't moving. Whenever you see price banging off of a particular support or resistance area, take a look at your oscillator (Stochastics, RSI) to see what's really going on. I'm guessing your current bias is probably long, because you're expecting price to break this level. You don't see that happening so you begin to think that maybe it's going to go short instead. That's becasue of your predetermined bias. Here's what I see. Price is stagnant. That means that there is something keeping it from going up higher and also something keeping it from going lower. There is a bull/bear tug-of-war going on at this level. So who is winnning? Currently, the 4H Strochastics is still open and moving up with plenty of room above for it to go up. The 1H Stochastics is flat right on the 80 line, which is the OB level line. Technically, it is not OB on the hourly. Now here is the clincher. The 30M and 15M Stochastics are moving down. The 15M has just about reached the 20 line, which is the OS level line. So the lower TFs are moving down, indicating selling is occurring, and yet price itself is staying stable, it is not really moving down at all. This tells me that the buyers are stronger than the sellers at the moment, because in spite of over-selling going on right now, the buyers have been able to maintain price at its current level. So whenever you see price clogging up like this, look at your oscillator of choice and see who is really winning the battle. The opposite in this case would be true. If price began to move down from this level and Stochastics showed OB, then that would indicate that the bears were winning and price would begin to move down more. These are just general observations of a very volatile Forex market. You need to study these kinds of situations in a live market to get a grasp of them yourself.

M2B
Thank you once again M2B for a great explanation of the so called ranging market. I print almost all of your explanations and charts to study later. Nikki
  • #49,964
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:41pm Nov 13, 2007 1:41pm
another observation....
with interest rates maintained.... why not carry trades to start again ? this pumps up the pair...
  • #49,965
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:44pm Nov 13, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Thanks for your contribution in waking it up! It is appreciated!

Anytime

But I think it was actually Gene reminding it what it's supposed to be doing...
  • #49,966
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:46pm Nov 13, 2007 1:46pm
Quoting karmostaji
4H QQE is crossed up so the current intra-day trend is up, any short trades will be short-lived, unless 4H QQE crosses downwards then we'll see new low's. I'm expecting this retrace to go up to 50/61.8 fib levels which are 231.50 and 233.23 but we all know the beast loves 50 and whenever price reaches that.. the 4H 50ema might as well be right there at 50 fib
karmo,

what two points did you use for your fib levels? also, the crossing of the two lines in the qqe indicates the intra-day trend. what then, is the significance of the qqe (both lines) crossing the 50 line?
  • #49,967
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:56pm Nov 13, 2007 1:56pm
Just a reminder
  • #49,968
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:57pm Nov 13, 2007 1:57pm
Hi guys,

Many thanks to all of you for your continued analysis and hard work! I have learned so much from this thread. I, for one, hope it continues. Never thought I'd say this: but I even miss Markham's gloom and doom!! Where the heck is he? To be honest, I have enjoyed the banter on this thread because it keeps things lively (granted, there have been alot of "weird" comments too), and alot less solitary. Maybe it's time for me to "grow up." Who know? Anyway, thanks again. Good trading to all of you ---
  • #49,969
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:24pm Nov 13, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting @40
Go, go, go!
Yes, but go where? LOL
  • #49,970
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:28pm Nov 13, 2007 2:28pm
My approach to market timing is less sophisticated than Gene22's esotric methodogy. However, I too have noticed the extreme swing in volatility and am also worried about the number of time lines that are due over the next few days.

I´ve attached a post that I made earlier today in the analysis thread which shows two possibe EW scenarios - the first being within "normal" range and the second an extreme case - any higher will negate an EW count.

Remember that time lines are periods when price movement is more likely to happen - in either direction.

The manner in which price has exploded into the last days of ultra wide range moves is IMO an indication of the underlying nervousness of the markets and I suspect this will be present into December.

Quote:

"Whilst yesterdays 4hr time line was a couple of bars out, it was also a daily TL...the next daily TL is on Friday.

Here's my 4hr chart updated, the suggested EW targets for a W4 are the 38% or 50% retrace to 4?, followewd by a fall into Fridays low to low TL....IF it has a stronger and longer bounce, then 4?? into Friday is a possibility - also a 4hr high to high TL - on the top APF line. TWT"
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1194946847

__________________
Pip Pirate
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #49,971
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:29pm Nov 13, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting chris747
Yes, but go where? LOL
...and there is no way GU going down and GY going up.....
  • #49,972
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:33pm Nov 13, 2007 2:33pm
I have a potential wolf wave that just formed on the 5 min, immediate target 228.20, and another one unfolding on the 15 min with a target of 224, the 15 min is not fully formed yet INMO. Pay attention to the new session momentum on the daily if the momentum is bearish it should prove to be a good short play.
  • #49,973
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:39pm Nov 13, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting Islander
My approach to market timing is less sophisticated than Gene22's esotric methodogy. However, I too have noticed the extreme swing in volatility and am also worried about the number of time lines that are due over the next few days.

I´ve attached a post that I made earlier today in the analysis thread which shows two possibe EW scenarios - the first being within "normal" range and the second an extreme case - any higher will negate an EW count.

Remember that time lines are periods when price movement is more likely to happen - in either direction.

The manner in which price has exploded into the last days of ultra wide range moves is IMO an indication of the underlying nervousness of the markets and I suspect this will be present into December.

Quote:

"Whilst yesterdays 4hr time line was a couple of bars out, it was also a daily TL...the next daily TL is on Friday.

Here's my 4hr chart updated, the suggested EW targets for a W4 are the 38% or 50% retrace to 4?, followewd by a fall into Fridays low to low TL....IF it has a stronger and longer bounce, then 4?? into Friday is a possibility - also a 4hr high to high TL - on the top APF line. TWT"
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1194946847

__________________
Pip Pirate
Nice one, that would be text book perfect and make me very happy, I'm a bit on the high alert status due to the volatility and price action that's wound up like a taught spring. One can only be prepared and let the price lead the way, great analysis though
  • #49,974
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:40pm Nov 13, 2007 2:40pm
I'm seeing a moderately bullish day for GJ, despite the general down trend. The 4hr QQE strength indicator has crossed up, joining the 1hr, 30min, and 15min QQE's. Price is well above the NY session daily pivot and the 4hr Gann. The Dow is up over 200 points and this is finally causing UJ and GJ to rise. US pending house sales were better than expected (thanks to low expectations).

On the down side, GU prices are sluggish at best and this could hamper strong GJ upward movement. There are also a number of GU news releases during London session that could halt or reverse the pattern. I'm looking forward to a test of the 231.50 area later today, where we can fill the weekend gap before meeting resistance at the 1hr 100sma.

  • #49,975
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:55pm Nov 13, 2007 2:55pm
This is setting up just like August.
Vix (votality) index is at same level just before August drop.
On the 4 hour chart in August we had a approx. 1200 pip drop followed by a 50% retrace before the bottom fell out and we dropped to 222.00 (approx) a few days later. This seems to be worse in my opinion and I tend to agree with Gene22 on his sub 200 targets. I would like to learn more about this timeline analysis. Can you direct me to a good place to start ?

Appreciate any criticism of my analysis !

Thanks to all the seniors for hanging in there with the thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,976
  • Edited 3:09pm Nov 13, 2007 3:08pm | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting chris747
...and there is no way GU going down and GY going up.....
deleted
  • #49,977
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:21pm Nov 13, 2007 3:21pm
Rusty here is a link with a simple explanation, if you get interested just start digging around and see where you want to start it's a vast subject to say the least.
http://www.dolefin.com/technicalanalysis/020308.asp
  • #49,978
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:38pm Nov 13, 2007 3:38pm
wow... over the course of the past 3 trading days someone could have made about 2000 pips! with G/J alone!

lol good ol' crazy forex
  • #49,979
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:44pm Nov 13, 2007 3:44pm
This is my prediction for G/J... it will hit the 38.2% fib level and possibly the yellow trendline right above it. From there I'm expecting either some sideways movement or another big movement downward... that 38.2% level also happens to be at the 50% retracement level from this last move down
Attached Image
  • #49,980
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:54pm Nov 13, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting MoForce
This is my prediction for G/J... it will hit the 38.2% fib level and possibly the yellow trendline right above it. From there I'm expecting either some sideways movement or another big movement downward... that 38.2% level also happens to be at the 50% retracement level from this last move down
moforce,

im having some trouble with fib's right now. could you just give the points you used for those two diff fib studies so i can understand what ranges you're looking at. i have been using the high in july (251.03) and the low in august (219.25). this is a large tf though. should i be looking at the most recent high of 241.33 in october to yesterday's low?

EDIT: nevermind, i didnt realize you posted a chart. for some reason none of the images are coming up in firefox
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