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Never listen to forecasters and analysists.

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Nov 12, 2007 1:35pm Nov 12, 2007 1:35pm
Just a week ago they all said that oil will definitely hit $100 and many of them said it will reach $100 last week. But it never happened last week. And they are now all changing their stories and saying that oil price could fall from now right after OPEC output.

A couple of months ago, many experts in Canada (I think they are just dumbass but they call themselves experts) said that USD/CAD can barely touch 97 cents and it will reverse. But now you see that it went down to 0.90 last week. And after that, Bank of Montreal and many experts all said that it can go down to 0.80 soon.

But it just went up to 0.96 in just three days and they are now saying that it is possibly a reverse.

Those are just disturbing. If you don't really know what is going to happen then you just need to shut up. And if you really want to say, never and ever say that you are an expert.

Dang, they just made me lose money and made people crazy. Who pay them for lying?
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
That's whY I am such a believer of technicals and reading the chart for overall direction and trading the lower timeframes in that bigger direction.
FOrget the so called experts!
Quoting pujolshomerun
Dang, they just made me lose money
Relax and be happy.
Yes, I agree. Don't listen to the "experts". Only you can make yourself a successful trader, nobody else!
Successful traders take responsibility for their own actions. When you make the decision to trade from the recommendation of another YOU decided to take that trade.
this is similar to accusing the beer factory because you got drunk at made some stuff, as acumen stated

Analist are here to give you an edge over other market participant. They said it will reach 100, but this was last week, and even if it sound like a small period of time, traders change their sentiment about the market conditions.

ps. after a such a long bull period, isn't a correction need it? and besides the big trend isn't over yet, good things will Come to Those who wait for them
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
Quoting acumen
Successful traders take responsibility for their own actions. When you make the decision to trade from the recommendation of another YOU decided to take that trade.
I second this statement.

凹凸 only
Those are just disturbing. If you don't really know what is going to happen then you just need to shut up. And if you really want to say, never and ever say that you are an expert.

You got it here ! IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING "ASK THE MARKET ITSELF" Techni. or Fundi

Dang, they just made me lose money and made people crazy. Who pay them for lying?[/quote]

As Acumen said !

Good luck for next hunt
Quoting pujolshomerun
Dang, they just made me lose money and made people crazy. Who pay them for lying?
What did you expect then? "Dang, they just made me profit " ?
Nothing in financial markets is concrete. Oil was hanging really close to $100 anyway so personally I assumed it would start to pull back soon. I thought around the end of November to early December for sure.
Analysts that come out and make these statements are only speculating themselves. No one can really know exactly where what will go for certain. If they did, you can be sure they wouldn't share their secrets and make calls out to the public like that.
Are they really true "experts" or journalists? They are in front of a camera are they not? A true expert will not give out the best trades on live t.v.
Just Trade It
In the last few months market is behaving in a peculiar way. And almost all the movements of the market is related to carry trade winding and unwinding
and as a result all the comments made by experts had gone down the drain.
up up up


i agree with the thread starter


NEWBIE should becarefull....don't listening or read too much stupid analysis
Quoting pujolshomerun
Just a week ago they all said that oil will definitely hit $100 and many of them said it will reach $100 last week. But it never happened last week. And they are now all changing their stories and saying that oil price could fall from now right after OPEC output.

A couple of months ago, many experts in Canada (I think they are just dumbass but they call themselves experts) said that USD/CAD can barely touch 97 cents and it will reverse. But now you see that it went down to 0.90 last week. And after that, Bank of Montreal and many experts all said that it can go down to 0.80 soon.

But it just went up to 0.96 in just three days and they are now saying that it is possibly a reverse.

Those are just disturbing. If you don't really know what is going to happen then you just need to shut up. And if you really want to say, never and ever say that you are an expert.

Dang, they just made me lose money and made people crazy. Who pay them for lying?
Look in the trading books; there is one word to describe this situation and it's called 'DISTRIBUTION'
What that means is that after a big bull run, the experts talk up whatever trading instrument it is, more often stocks. The crowd believes the experts and enter the market. The more savvy market participants then sell to them at the high price, more often quietly a parcel at a time. This can last some time. After it is finished, DANG ! the market goes in opposite direction to expert prediction. Oldest trick in the book !
And of course, DANG ! the late bulls lose their money.
read everything..
but do what your own work tells u... should be important..

Read.. and then keep what u think is important in your mind.. rest throw it away.. and analyze yourself.. work your way...
My take is if someone is on TV telling me that something is going up, that I should consider buying, they're short and looking to exit.
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Feb 5, 2008 7:56am Feb 5, 2008 7:56am
Quoting jacobtrader
read everything..
but do what your own work tells u... should be important..

Read.. and then keep what u think is important in your mind.. rest throw it away.. and analyze yourself.. work your way...
You are correct, you can always use those tips.
But they have to be modified to your own tradig experiences.
And don't just take advice from someone else.
Accept it but look critical at it.
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