There's been a lot of diverging opinions on the direction of US interest rates. Right now, the Fed is looking very perceptive with their economic assesments and the economy is in a sweet spot from a Fed point of view. Growth is at a sustainable pace and inflation, while still above the comfort zone, looks to be trending down even as the unemployment rate stays very low and a good amount of jobs are being created.
My own opinion is that the US economy is gonna stay pretty much as it is now at least thru the first 1/2 of 2007. Housing is probably gonna stay in the range it's in, manufacturing slowly downtrending or bottoming and services doing well. No recession and no boom. Corporations are gonna continue to make money and oil is probably gonna stay below $65. The Fed is on hold thru the first half of 2007.
As for the ECB and BoE, without a real move up in energy they won't do much, maybe 1 increase from both in the first 1/2 of 2007. I don't think that's gonna cause any significant $ weakening because I think 1 increase from both is priced in already.
In currency-I think we've seen many reasons for the $ to weaken, but it hasn't since the peaks of the Euro and GBP rallies in early Dec. It's been gaining strength since then. The $2 pound and $1.40 Euro are dead issues. The powers that be don't want them and they're not gonna happen.
All opinion is based on the status quo geo-politically and don't forget the war in Iraq. Watch their economy (it's growing) and watch the oil coming out of there (it's increasing). Here's another opinion; the US is not leaving the region any time soon, even if a Democrat wins the white house in 2008. The Baker Commision was a complete joke; it's akin to suggesting a negotiation with Hitler during WWII. This is what we got from the man who headed the state department during the fall of communism. Saying that the US is gonna leave the region because of a few car bombs is like saying the police in your city are gonna close down operations because a few people got mugged. There's no one to organize a significant anti-war movement here-they're too busy making money on Wall St or studying how to do so in college. I'm old enough to remember the 60's and the war in Viet Nam; I don't see anti-war protestors in the streets and I don't hear anti-war songs on the radio.
The world is gonna continue in the direction it's been going for 1000's of years: The forces of freedom overcoming the forces of tyranny. The US will continue to do as it always has done so: fight a war, then rebuild a former enemy's infrasturcture and economy. The only time we didn't do that was with Germany after WWI by imposing draconian economic penalties on them. That led to the rise of Hitler and WWII. Bad mistake. Absolutely will not happen again.
For us forex traders, I doubt we'll see any big moves either way in the first 1/2 of 2007. You'll have to watch support and resistance and grab some pips when they break. 200 pips either way from where the Euro and GBP are now thru the first 1/2 of 2007. That's my opinion, but if that breaks, no problem, I'll trade that too...
My own opinion is that the US economy is gonna stay pretty much as it is now at least thru the first 1/2 of 2007. Housing is probably gonna stay in the range it's in, manufacturing slowly downtrending or bottoming and services doing well. No recession and no boom. Corporations are gonna continue to make money and oil is probably gonna stay below $65. The Fed is on hold thru the first half of 2007.
As for the ECB and BoE, without a real move up in energy they won't do much, maybe 1 increase from both in the first 1/2 of 2007. I don't think that's gonna cause any significant $ weakening because I think 1 increase from both is priced in already.
In currency-I think we've seen many reasons for the $ to weaken, but it hasn't since the peaks of the Euro and GBP rallies in early Dec. It's been gaining strength since then. The $2 pound and $1.40 Euro are dead issues. The powers that be don't want them and they're not gonna happen.
All opinion is based on the status quo geo-politically and don't forget the war in Iraq. Watch their economy (it's growing) and watch the oil coming out of there (it's increasing). Here's another opinion; the US is not leaving the region any time soon, even if a Democrat wins the white house in 2008. The Baker Commision was a complete joke; it's akin to suggesting a negotiation with Hitler during WWII. This is what we got from the man who headed the state department during the fall of communism. Saying that the US is gonna leave the region because of a few car bombs is like saying the police in your city are gonna close down operations because a few people got mugged. There's no one to organize a significant anti-war movement here-they're too busy making money on Wall St or studying how to do so in college. I'm old enough to remember the 60's and the war in Viet Nam; I don't see anti-war protestors in the streets and I don't hear anti-war songs on the radio.
The world is gonna continue in the direction it's been going for 1000's of years: The forces of freedom overcoming the forces of tyranny. The US will continue to do as it always has done so: fight a war, then rebuild a former enemy's infrasturcture and economy. The only time we didn't do that was with Germany after WWI by imposing draconian economic penalties on them. That led to the rise of Hitler and WWII. Bad mistake. Absolutely will not happen again.
For us forex traders, I doubt we'll see any big moves either way in the first 1/2 of 2007. You'll have to watch support and resistance and grab some pips when they break. 200 pips either way from where the Euro and GBP are now thru the first 1/2 of 2007. That's my opinion, but if that breaks, no problem, I'll trade that too...
