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The Art of Trading with MTF Stochastics

  • #241
  • Nov 11, 2007 7:44pm Nov 11, 2007 7:44pm
A sell on GU - 25 pip trade - Bring sexy Back stochs got me into the trade...otherwise I would have not entered. But the MTF on M15 also looked week. Entered with a tight stop and took 25 pips.
There were also sells on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURCHF and buys on USDCAD, USDCHF...all would have been profitable for some pips. Lovin this stochastics trading...soom time to put some real money in play.
Cheers and best of luck for the week.
CanuckCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd m15.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #242
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:08pm Nov 11, 2007 8:08pm
Nice work my friend,

You're very brave to be trading Sunday night, especially after that big gap -- I bow to you.

I have good feelings about this week -- Please be smart, stay out until we get good, clear signals, and -- let's all make some money!



Quoting CanuckCT
A sell on GU - 25 pip trade - Bring sexy Back stochs got me into the trade...otherwise I would have not entered. But the MTF on M15 also looked week. Entered with a tight stop and took 25 pips.
There were also sells on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURCHF and buys on USDCAD, USDCHF...all would have been profitable for some pips. Lovin this stochastics trading...soom time to put some real money in play.
Cheers and best of luck for the week.
CanuckCT
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #243
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:42am Nov 12, 2007 3:42am
k2kv: But I must agree with Canuck -- we're trying to focus on stochastics here.
Yes, and I must apologise for "bursting into the room" like that.

CanuckCT: And no I'm not trying to give you a hard time...just trying to focus on stochastics.
Ditto, and delicately put, thank you.

My trade today, so far, has been as below. I entered short at 228.95 which looks considerably late. The reason was the unstable movements prior where it looked as though there might be a reversal. Additionally there was an important UK news announcement which I wanted out of the way. I waited for cable and USD/JPY to position themselves favourably and then opened the trade.

TP was a modest 30 pips because I was seeing support all over the 228 area. In the event it was a very quick trade and price went down into 227's. Annoying but ultimately stress free.

Of course, this is a success. I will post a failure if you are interested.
Attached Image
Gone to a better place
  • #244
  • Nov 12, 2007 5:20am Nov 12, 2007 5:20am
Hello to all,


I have been kind of busy but I am back. I am pleased to see that this thread, thanks to Jeff, continues to grow. It is also encouraging to see that we are all trying to follow Spud's method and at the same time finding our own identity. Now I have to catch up to you guys!



Good luck to all!
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #245
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:01am Nov 12, 2007 6:01am
Jeff - I just grabbed a quick 10 pips in E/U based on "sexy stochs". The setup was a bit in the gray area but it work out for a "quicky" before work.

Take care...


T4K
  • #246
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:37am Nov 12, 2007 8:37am
Hi Smikester --

Great trade! A classic rubber band trade based on elasticity. Thanks so much for sharing.

Bad trades are also most welcome. While none of us wants to experience them, we learn at least as much from bad trades as good. As a group, we can usually pull them apart to figure out why they went bad and that definitely helps to keep us out of the next one.

Btw, 30-pips is not so modest. You can live quite comfortably on 30-pips per day; what's more important is how many lots you trade.

Thanks again...


Quoting smikester
k2kv: But I must agree with Canuck -- we're trying to focus on stochastics here.
Yes, and I must apologise for "bursting into the room" like that.

CanuckCT: And no I'm not trying to give you a hard time...just trying to focus on stochastics.
Ditto, and delicately put, thank you.

My trade today, so far, has been as below. I entered short at 228.95 which looks considerably late. The reason was the unstable movements prior where it looked as though there might be a reversal. Additionally there was an important UK news announcement which I wanted out of the way. I waited for cable and USD/JPY to position themselves favourably and then opened the trade.

TP was a modest 30 pips because I was seeing support all over the 228 area. In the event it was a very quick trade and price went down into 227's. Annoying but ultimately stress free.

Of course, this is a success. I will post a failure if you are interested.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #247
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:39am Nov 12, 2007 8:39am
Hi Moneda,

Welcome back -- we missed you!

Now -- get to work!!


Quoting moneda
Hello to all,


I have been kind of busy but I am back. I am pleased to see that this thread, thanks to Jeff, continues to grow. It is also encouraging to see that we are all trying to follow Spud's method and at the same time finding our own identity. Now I have to catch up to you guys!



Good luck to all!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #248
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:27am Nov 12, 2007 9:27am
Hi guys,

I've placed three trades today, all +pips, all small gains. Here is my last trade, a nice scalp based on Spud's "Quicker pips" method.

15-30-60-4h were all sitting at the bottom of the tank, all oversold. M15 was at the top. Once it turned back over and hit the 76.4, entry was confirmed.

Actually, I entered a little early as I was simultaneously watching the sexy 5 cross it's signal, so I suffered a few thumping hearbeats as price soared 15 pips against me before settling down and going my way.

Entered at 2.0610, exited at +9 pips just before price hit the 2.0600 level; left some pips on the table as usual, but price bounced back up, and I'm happy to be in the money.

Have fun!
Attached Image
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #249
  • Nov 12, 2007 10:24am Nov 12, 2007 10:24am
CanuckCT,

Yes that is the one. Thank you for both the Indicator and the a setup!

many pips to you,

Ken

Quoting CanuckCT
Hello Ken,

I presume you mean the indicator that adds the 4 different TF stochastics to one chart. There are a few versions of this indicator. Here is the one I use.

I'll also attach one of my templates. If you have any problems with this...let me know.

Cheers,

CanuckCT
  • #250
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:50am Nov 12, 2007 11:50am
Hi people i was a spudfyre follower too. i hope to stick with this thread now cos i love stoch.
  • #251
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:45pm Nov 12, 2007 3:45pm
Quoting k2kv
Hi guys,

I've placed three trades today, all +pips, all small gains. Here is my last trade, a nice scalp based on Spud's "Quicker pips" method.

15-30-60-4h were all sitting at the bottom of the tank, all oversold. M15 was at the top. Once it turned back over and hit the 76.4, entry was confirmed.

Actually, I entered a little early as I was simultaneously watching the sexy 5 cross it's signal, so I suffered a few thumping hearbeats as price soared 15 pips against me before settling down and going my way.

Entered at 2.0610, exited at +9 pips just before price hit the 2.0600 level; left some pips on the table as usual, but price bounced back up, and I'm happy to be in the money.

Have fun!

Hello Jeff,

Nice trade but I tried to duplicate the chart you show and I could not come up with the same situation. You say that the 15/30/60/4hr were oversold then you say the 15 was on top(overbought). Did you mean the 5min and if you did I still dont come up with the same chart. My 5min only comes up to the 50 level more or less. Is it that your broker is not gmt+2 like mine? or is it something else?

Here is my chart. White is the 5min.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.gif Size: 22 KB
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #252
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:37pm Nov 12, 2007 6:37pm
Sometimes you sit down and there it is...the setup you always look for but don't find that often...whether it comes in the middle of the night, or while you were out. This is the type of setup I look for and I believe it has great potential with little heat.

M15, M30 and H1 all bunched together and just coming out of oversold together on the spud MTF. H4 also pointing up, if ever so slightly. Within 5 to 10 pips of the next bar it was clear to me that everything was pointed up together so I went long.

Also had confirmation of the stochastic threads...not a rope but very orderly. And the trigger line (green) on the bring sexy back stochastics was also heading up...the 5,3,3 is a pretty good indicator of the very short term move.

Have protected 50 pips which makes up for a couple of bonehead plays earlier today.

Been looking at shorter timeframe trades...but a nice trade on the hourly can make up for a lot of small trades on the M5.

Just stopped out for 50 pips.

It would be nice to find a handful of these each week.

Cheers,
CanuckCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #253
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:43pm Nov 12, 2007 6:43pm
CanuckCT,

I see that you've incorporated both Spud's and Boxing's indicators on one chart. I was comtemplating doing the same. Have you noticed an advantage with both on one chart? Thanks.
  • #254
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:02pm Nov 12, 2007 7:02pm
Hello Rialto,

I've been tinkering with my charts and I think I'm finally happy with the result. My chart setup now is as follows:

M5,M15 and M30 have boxing indicators and spud MTF
H1 - boxing indicators, spud MTF and spud threads
H4 - boxing indicators, 4hour stoch at 14,3,3 only and the boxing indicators

I just change the time frame and everything adjusts to what I want to see on that time frame.

I have found a lot of conflicting signals on the lower time frames and it did mess me up today a few times. Spent a lot of time today on lower time frames (M5 and M15). Price action on M5 seems to help with entry for setup identified on M15. Not sure I like anything lower than M15.

My current thinking is confirmation from the three setups on H1 (the lowest TF for threads) and that I believe is a very high percent winner. Where there is confusion I'm either going to go just with MTF stochs or go to M15 and trade that TF. If is unclear I need to work harder at standing aside.

Time will tell...

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting Rialto
CanuckCT

I see that you've incorporated both Spud's and Boxing's indicators on one chart. I was comtemplating doing the same. Have you noticed an advantage with both on one chart? Thanks.
  • #255
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:05pm Nov 12, 2007 7:05pm
Hello smikester,
That's near as good as it gets for spud MTF setup.
Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting smikester
k2kv: But I must agree with Canuck -- we're trying to focus on stochastics here.
Yes, and I must apologise for "bursting into the room" like that.

CanuckCT: And no I'm not trying to give you a hard time...just trying to focus on stochastics.
Ditto, and delicately put, thank you.

My trade today, so far, has been as below. I entered short at 228.95 which looks considerably late. The reason was the unstable movements prior where it looked as though there might be a reversal. Additionally there was an important UK news announcement which I wanted out of the way. I waited for cable and USD/JPY to position themselves favourably and then opened the trade.

TP was a modest 30 pips because I was seeing support all over the 228 area. In the event it was a very quick trade and price went down into 227's. Annoying but ultimately stress free.

Of course, this is a success. I will post a failure if you are interested.
  • #256
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:10pm Nov 12, 2007 7:10pm
Thanks CanuckCT. I really like Spud's Thread Theory on the 1 & 4HR charts. It would be great if he stopped in and said hello.
  • #257
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:14pm Nov 12, 2007 7:14pm
Here's a trade that, literally, just fell into my lap.

I had logged into my platform just to see what the price action had been, and to get a little idea of what the London session might do tonight. (The London session is about the only session I trade.)

When I took a look at my sexy stoch template on the M5, I saw that the 20 & 50 had crossed down, following a great shooting star candle that formed at a major psychological number (228.00). This had come after a pretty nice run up after the asian open. I figured that it was due for a retracement, and the candle formations were showing a lot of small body candles as the 20 & 50 stochs were continuing to fall.

I went ahead and entered short in anticipation (I know, I know -- I'm supposed to WAIT for the signal), and it has turned out very well so far. At the time I took the screenshot I was up 42. I am still up 19 riding through a minor retracement. My TP is at 226.20, just before the 50% retracement level. That would be 106 pips if it gets there. We'll see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY sexy stoch trade.gif Size: 136 KB
  • #258
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:09pm Nov 12, 2007 8:09pm
Here is a sell setup I took...was up 20 pips and it moved against me so I scratched the trade....still looks like a sell and I may get a better entry.
CanuckCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #259
  • Edited 9:09pm Nov 12, 2007 9:01pm | Edited 9:09pm
Hi Moneda,

You have a good eye.

Sorry for the error -- it was the 5M that was oversold, not the 15M. The chart itself, however, is not incorrect, just the line definitions. Corrected, they should be 5-30-60-4H not 15-30-60-4H.

I had no trouble replicating the chart for (below) with just the 5M and 4H shown for clarity. Although best viewed on a 15M chart, when viewed in a 5M TF the MTF stoch lines move differently but still demonstrate the same endpoints. That is, except for the 5M which is accurate here since this is a 5M chart and the way I'm set up, my shortest TF line is always the current TF.

In other words, when I change the chart TF to 15M, the first (shortest stoch) line becomes the 15M stoch. When I change the TF to 60M, the first line becomes the 60M stoch, and so on.

My broker is GMT.

I have no explanation for why your chart differs from mine. The 5M clearly went into overbought; If I'm not mistaken, I was chatting with another trader at the time of the trade, and pretty sure he saw what I saw.

No smoke, no mirrors http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Hope that helps...

EDIT: Unfortunately, old habits die hard. I've mislabeled the 5m line on the chart below as 15M! It is, in fact, the 5M. It's past my bedtime!!


Quoting moneda
Hello Jeff,



Nice trade but I tried to duplicate the chart you show and I could not come up with the same situation. You say that the 15/30/60/4hr were oversold then you say the 15 was on top(overbought). Did you mean the 5min and if you did I still dont come up with the same chart. My 5min only comes up to the 50 level more or less. Is it that your broker is not gmt+2 like mine? or is it something else?



Here is my chart. White is the 5min.
Attached Image
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #260
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:17am Nov 13, 2007 1:17am
Here's a trade I took at the London open tonight.

Looking at price action leading into the London open, I saw that price was making a double top formation, right at the 61.8% retracement level from the previous day's move. Moreover, that double top happened to be forming right at a significant level: 228.00. The M15, M30, and H1 stochs were all overbought, but the H4 was oversold. This looked like it could be setting up for a rubber band trade. Other signs that price would likely be heading down is that there was negative divergence forming on the M15 stoch.

I went short @ 227.73. My initial take profit was 150 pips down, but the subsequent price action made me nervous. There were some long lower wicks on the down candles. That made it seem like price was having a hard time falling. Additionally, the H4 stoch, while still oversold, was turning up.

Consequently, I decided to let discretion be the better part of valor and close out with +61.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBYJPY 13NOV07.gif Size: 116 KB
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