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The 20th Annual IFTA Conference - Sharm El-Shaikh

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 12, 2007 4:38am Nov 12, 2007 4:38am
Dear All,

I just returned back from the 20th annual IFTA conference which was held in Sharm El-Sheikh between the 8th of November 2007 and the 11th of November 2007. The conference was great with lots of experienced technical analysts, traders, fund managers and investment bankers attending from all over the world. Sessions were condense and discussions were awesome.

The purpose of this thread and why it is located in this specific forum is because I will be posting (Very Soon) a summary of the conference and the sessions including the methodologies discussed by most of the speakers there as well as their future opinions about global stock markets, bond markets, commodities and currencies.

I wonder if anyone else was attending the conference who can help me in this job, just to minimize the effort and maximize the benefit for all users and members.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #2
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:04am Nov 12, 2007 6:04am
Nope, sadly I am away from Egypt at the moment and can't travel during these days. Didn't even know there was a conference being hosted! And I can't wait to see what new fangled things these boys bring to the table. Your efforts are appreciated.

Quoting narafa
Dear All,

I just returned back from the 20th annual IFTA conference which was held in Sharm El-Sheikh between the 8th of November 2007 and the 11th of November 2007. The conference was great with lots of experienced technical analysts, traders, fund managers and investment bankers attending from all over the world. Sessions were condense and discussions were awesome.

The purpose of this thread and why it is located in this specific forum is because I will be posting (Very Soon) a summary of the conference and the sessions including the methodologies discussed by most of the speakers there as well as their future opinions about global stock markets, bond markets, commodities and currencies.

I wonder if anyone else was attending the conference who can help me in this job, just to minimize the effort and maximize the benefit for all users and members.


Thanks,

Nader
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:19am Nov 12, 2007 11:19am
Please note that I will be doing my best to bring the summary of what was being said in the conference in this thread, however, this doesn't mean that I will publish the whole speech or presentation of every single participant as this would not be practical.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #4
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:23am Nov 12, 2007 11:23am
Biography (From Pring.com):

Martin J. Pring entered the financial markets in 1969 and has grown to become a leader in the global investment community. In 1981 he founded Pring Research, and began providing research for financial institutions and individual investors around the world. Since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review”, a monthly market review offering a long-term synopsis of the world's major financial markets. Martin pioneered the introduction of videos as an educational tool for technical analysis in 1987, and was the first to introduce educational, interactive CD’s in this field.

Demanded as a speaker worldwide, he is the author of several outstanding books including, Introduction to Technical Analysis, Martin Pring on Market Momentum, and Technical Analysis Explained, now in its fourth edition. Since this unique book first appeared in 1979, Technical Analysis Explained has established itself as the number one guide of its kind. It is used by several international technical societies for training and is one of the three main books for Level 1 CMT certification for the Market Technicians Association. Translated into over 10 languages, the book is, as quoted in Forbes, “widely regarded as the standard work for this generation of chartists”. According to Futures Magazine “it is one of the best books on technical analysis to come out since Edwards & Magee’s classic text in 1948…belongs on the shelf of every serious trader and technical analyst.”


Thanks,

Nader
  • #5
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:42am Nov 12, 2007 11:42am
Session Topic:

Executing Profitable Sector Rotation Strategies by Applying Technical Analysis to Economic Indicators

The main focus of Prings' presentation was as follows:

1- The business cycle is a chronological sequence of economic and financial events

2- Bonds, Stocks and Commodities move in sequence and so do sectors of the economy

3- Using economic indicators (Which is basically the housing starts) to identify where we are in the cycle and therefore can detect which sectors to over and under weight



Martin Pring uses Housing Starts as his primary economic indicator, however he derives another indicator from Housing Starts called the Housing Starts KST.

The Housing Starts KST indicator is calculated from the Stochastic indicator of the standard Housing Starts.

Pring have 4 different time frames for KST, mainly derived from the business cycle length. The 9 months, the 12 months, the 18 months and the 24 months periods.

Pring averages the Standard Housing Starts on a 6-period basis for all time frames except for the 24 months period, he uses a 9-period moving average instead.

The next step is to assign a weighting factor for each time period. The 9 months gets a weighting factor of 1, the 12 months gets a weighting factor of 2 and so on till a weighting factor of 4 for the 24 months period.

The final result is to Multiply the moving average for each period along with the weighting factor of the period and then adds up all the values to finally get the Housing Starts KST indicator.

The KST is a leading indicator when compared to the stochastic indicator of the Housing Starts.


Furthermore, Pring designed other KST indicators compsed of the various economic indicators. He takes the leading indicators such as the housing starts and so on and constructs a leading KST, he then takes the coincident economic indicators and constructs a coincident KST indicator and finally he takes the lagging economic indicators and constructs a lagging KST indicator.


Pring plots his 3 different categories against the S&P 500 and aim to identify at which part of the business cycle are we currently in through the tops and the bottoms of the 3 indicators.

It was found by the work done by Pring that the leading KST usually tops ahead of the S&P500 top, the coincident KST tops almost at the same time the S&P500 tops and the lagging KST will eventually top after the S&P500 tops.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #6
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:58am Nov 12, 2007 11:58am
In applying sector rotation, which is the main topic of the presentation, Pring stresses that the stock market as a whole discounts the economy. In the idealized business cycle, the stock market tops before the economy actually tops and the stock market actually bottoms before the economy itself bottoms and thus the stock market is actually a leading indicator for the state of the economy.

However, since the leading indicator, which is the stock market, is the tradeable instrument and since people can't trade the economy itself (Unless they are shutting down or starting businesses of course), Pring identifies the same concept to sectors.

Sectors discount their specific area of the economy just as the stock market as a whole discounts the economy. And thus the sector rotation idea is to find the chronological sequence of sectors and know which sectors bottoms or tops before the market and which with the market and which after the market. In other words, the work done by Pring is to determine the time shift, not as a magnitude but as a direction (Before or after), of sectors relative to the stock market and consequently relative to the economy.

Pring identifies a series of sectors and the order at which these sectors tend to bottom and top relative to each other and the sequence of the toping and bottoming in relation to the bottom and the top of the S&P 500 composite itself.

The complete sequence is not currently available, however an example would be appropriate to clarify:

At the very bottom of the business cycle and where the stock market represented by the S&P500 tend to bottom, the consumer staples tend to bottom before the actual bottom of the S&P 500 follwed by a bottom in Financials and Telecom followed by a bottom in Utilities and Transports.

Thus, just as the stock market is bottoming, those 3 sectors tend to show early strength and start to rally while the market is actually bottoming and probably making new lows.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #7
  • Nov 12, 2007 12:03pm Nov 12, 2007 12:03pm
Martin Pring is currently bearish on the US stock market and this is what his analysis is telling. His charts are just yelling at him that the market is due for a sharp break and that this might be happening very soon. The market representation for Pring is the S&P 500 of course.

So Pring is Bearish on S&P 500 as of 12-Nov-2007


Thanks,

Nader
  • #8
  • Edited 4:59am Nov 13, 2007 4:41am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting narafa
Martin Pring is currently bearish on the US stock market and this is what his analysis is telling. His charts are just yelling at him that the market is due for a sharp break and that this might be happening very soon. The market representation for Pring is the S&P 500 of course.

So Pring is Bearish on S&P 500 as of 12-Nov-2007
Good to know
(although it is SOoooooooooo tempting to insert a wisecrack comment here(@pring, not you ;p), but that would do dishonor to the thread itself )

Thanks for the effort narafa, this is highly interesting (and for me confusing stuff, considering the guy "made" the pinbar...but if he likes complicated, his call) and I am looking forward to what the other speakers say as well =)

Always interesting to see what the "corporate" equivalents do and how they carry on
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #9
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:49am Nov 13, 2007 4:49am
Narafa, very informative, always interesting to see what the other people are saying. Keep posting.
  • #10
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:57am Nov 13, 2007 4:57am
Narafa,
Thank you very much for taking the time to share your conference experience. Interesting reading.
  • #11
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:16am Nov 14, 2007 12:16am
Quoting SeekingLight
Good to know
(although it is SOoooooooooo tempting to insert a wisecrack comment here(@pring, not you ;p), but that would do dishonor to the thread itself )

Thanks for the effort narafa, this is highly interesting (and for me confusing stuff, considering the guy "made" the pinbar...but if he likes complicated, his call) and I am looking forward to what the other speakers say as well =)

Always interesting to see what the "corporate" equivalents do and how they carry on
Well, thanks for keeping the topic of the thread in check and not turning it into a debate about the S&P500 future performance However, you shall wait to see other participants opinions as well as some of them are pretty bullish on the market...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #12
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:27am Nov 14, 2007 12:27am
Session Topic:

Building & Using a Rule Based Trading System


The main focus of Persons' presentation was Pivot Points and how he uses them in a little bit different way to generate his buy and sell signals.

Person didn't explain the complete trading system he is using, however, he gave the clues.

The rule based trading system used by Person is mainly a crossover system. Each day Person calculates the Pivot points and 2 levels of resistance and support for the instruments he is trading. He then averages the pivot points on a 3 period basis and waits for a cross over between the 1 day PP and the 3 day SMA of the PP to generate buy or sell signals.

For example, a buy signal is generated whenever the 1 day PP crosses above the 3 day SMA of the PP. The signal only occurs at the close and thus he can't get his signals except after the session is done.

After a signal is generated, Person looks to buy the market at the first support level calculated (S1) at the next day.

Most of the examples Person included in his presentation came from currencies in the first place. The closing of the day to John is regarded as the NY closing at 5:00 PM EST.

Person would stay in the trade as long as the 1 day PP remains above the 3 day SMA of the PP and once another crossover to the downside occurs, he would take profits and consider going short.

The whole idea is not as simple as explained of course and Person uses some other criteria to filter out the false signals, however, there are still false signals, no doubt. The main thing he is looking at is confirmation that the current short term trend had reversed and to enhance the risk/reward ratio as much as possible.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #13
  • Nov 14, 2007 12:31am Nov 14, 2007 12:31am
Biography (From www.nationalfutures.com)

John Person is a 28-year veteran of the Futures and Options Trading industry. He started on the Floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange back in 1979. This was the premier exchange which launched foreign currency trading. He then had the privilege of working with George Lane , the innovator of the stochastic indicator.

John has worked his way throughout the industry as a independent Trader, Broker, Analyst and Branch Manager for one of Chicago's largest discount / full service firms under the direct supervision of a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade. He is the former owner and President of First National Futures Group, Inc. and is continuing his work as a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

John Person author of The Complete Guide to Technical Analysis for the Futures Markets, by John Wiley and Sons was the first ever to introduce traders to a powerful combination of candlesticks and pivot point analysis.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #14
  • Nov 16, 2007 5:01pm Nov 16, 2007 5:01pm
Guido Riolo is the Head of Technical Analysis for Europe, Middle East and Africa for Bloomberg.

Guido Riolos' presentation was focused on TD Levels (Tom DeMarks' levels) and TD Sequential and TD Combo.

TD are counter-trend by nature and they are best emplyed to spot when the trend is about to stop being your friend.

Idetifying the trend is by looking for "directional momentum", for an uptrend, 9 consecutive bars of positive 4-bar momentum and for a downtrend, 9 consecutive bars of negative 4-bar momentum.

The phase of idetifying the trend is called the setup and bars are numbered and the completion of the setup triggers 3 important events:

1- A correction should start, two bars either side of the 9th bar
2- A line called TDST is generated
3- The second phase, CountDown, has a chance to commence

Corrections against the setups must be calculated off the range of the setup itself. Ideal situation is when Fibonacci retracements of the setup range and of the overall move cluster at the same level.

A useful concept applied to setups is the compressed setup. A buy setup can cover less space than the opposing sell setup. If 9 consecutive bars of negative momentum are easily undone by the first few bars of the opposite move, then the market is suggesting a greater conviction on the upside and vice versa.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #15
  • Nov 16, 2007 5:05pm Nov 16, 2007 5:05pm
Biography (From the conference material)

Robin Griffiths has published commentaries on world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities, and presented his ideas regularly to a global client base for more than 30 years. Robin joined Rathbones in 2004 as Head of Asset Allocation from HSBC Investment Bank. He is a committee member and former chairman of the International Federation of Technical Analysts, and former chairman, now fellow, of the British Society of Technical Analysts.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #16
  • Nov 16, 2007 5:26pm Nov 16, 2007 5:26pm
Robin started his presentation with a world map overview of the ancient world highlighting that the economic center of the world was being Europe and Africa at that time.

The economic center than shifted to the Americans, typically North America which represents the current economic center of the world.

Finally, the future map of the world in his opinion will shift further towards the left where the economic center of the world shall be Asia and Australia, mainly India and China.

The presentation goes on to identify long term secular trends in DJIA, S&P 500, FTSE100, Nikkei225, Dow Gold Ratio and comparing all those indices with their inflation adjusted charts. Robin then goes further on to inter-relate the USD, the GBP and the Japanses Yen along with their indices and their respective stock markets.

Furthermore, Robin continues on explaing the different economic and market cycles such as the Juglar 10-Year cycle and the 4 years US presedential election cycle.

Robin is Bullish on the US market for the next 12-18 months and his view is that we are entering the strongest period of any bull market where the 1-year cycle, the 4-year cycle and the 10-year cycle are coinciding with each other. The end of year rally in stocks (Usually named as the Santa Clause rally) is about to begin, which comes before the presedential elections in 2008 (Where stocks tend to rally before elections) and at the same time coinciding with the last 4 years of the 10-year cycle (All cycles are measured bottom to bottom, and since the last bottom for the 10-year cycle came at 2002, the next bottom is expected to be around 2012, thus a top can be expected at around 2009-2010).


Thanks,

Nader
  • #17
  • Nov 17, 2007 3:00pm Nov 17, 2007 3:00pm
Narafa:
Very interesting presentation. I particularly enjoyed reading and researching Martin Pring's use of the KST indicator. In the presentation did he talk of a 'world based' indicator, similar to what Housing Starts are used for in what appears to be the US Economy?
I have not heard of Guido Riolo, but the TD Sequential is an item that I have been studying in Tom DeMark's book.
Thanks for taking the time to record your impressions of the conference.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #18
  • Nov 17, 2007 11:47pm Nov 17, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting mrgreen
Narafa:
Very interesting presentation. I particularly enjoyed reading and researching Martin Pring's use of the KST indicator. In the presentation did he talk of a 'world based' indicator, similar to what Housing Starts are used for in what appears to be the US Economy?
I have not heard of Guido Riolo, but the TD Sequential is an item that I have been studying in Tom DeMark's book.
Thanks for taking the time to record your impressions of the conference.
Pring didn't mention anything about a world based indicator, he mentioned that he uses a different set of economic indicators based on the lagging, coinciding and leading economic indicators in order to judge where are we in the economic cycle and thus can measure which sectors are expected to outperform or underperform.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #19
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:30pm Nov 19, 2007 5:30pm
thanks for sharing this narafa! sounds like a great conference, very interesting speakers!

did you get any general consensus from the speakers regarding the dollar? im hot on this idea that a dollar bubble (well, reverse bubble anyway) has been forming lately, wondering if you saw this bearish exuberance from the conference crowd.
Relax and be happy.
  • #20
  • Nov 19, 2007 5:45pm Nov 19, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting merlin
thanks for sharing this narafa! sounds like a great conference, very interesting speakers!

did you get any general consensus from the speakers regarding the dollar? im hot on this idea that a dollar bubble (well, reverse bubble anyway) has been forming lately, wondering if you saw this bearish exuberance from the conference crowd.
Well, the conference have had tens of professionals and their expectations can't be judged as crowd behavior or expectations. However, many are convinced of the idea you are mentioning. For example, during the conference, gold was hitting $835-$840 and mostly everyone was bearish on Gold and consequently bullish for the USD. However, most of them still believe that the dollar bear market is not over yet and that it is due for more declines.

There were some stresses and strong bullish sentiments as well for the GBP against the USD.

A wide percentage of the conference attendees were bearish the US stock market. For example, I met someone, without mentioning names, who was heavily short Google above 700s (This was before the recent collapse in the stock). This guy was extremely bearish over the USD and bullish over commodities.

Many believe that the current decline in the stock market is just a double cycle and that we shall be seeing a huge run in the US market during 2008 and 2009 where the top is expected according to the Juglar 10-year cycle.


Thanks,

Nader
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