FXAnalytics

Glad to have found an active forum on the net; I've been around the FX sandbox for a while and have seen a few of these grow and fall; it will be nice to jump back into an active community again. I'll try to post my eur/usd trades and outlook as I'm able and look forward to getting know the board a little bit.

Right now I'm out of the market but I'm sitting on the following in my longer term model; current target for the bullish eur/usd break is 1.4615 which is a slight down grade from the 1.4636 that was signaled a few days back. We'll see how the current momentum holds up in the face of marching through relatively unchartered territory.

I remember your research and commentary from some of the other boards, it was some good work. You'll find a much larger and vocal crowd here, once they get to know you.

Welcome!

Thanks... It's been a long time since I've just been able to concentrate on trading (and not the business of trading).

It's nice to be known though! Thanks for dropping in; I'll do my best to bring some decent analysis to the thread, try to make it a little bit useful

Just wanted to see if I could upload a chart with some analysis on it...

I think I did it.

I aparantly posted my thread in the wrong area... I see its been moved to Journals... Sorry about that.

Thursday; 11/7/07

hello,
nice to have your analysis here !

thanks shark... I appreciate that!

Here is a demo of recent trades... It will probably be a few weeks before I'm back to live trading as I'm transitioning out of the consulting world and back into the "real" world. My FX account will be much smaller now than it was in the past as my risk profile and allocation has changed dramatically since refco went belly up. I'll funnel as much money as I can into the more aggressive side of my investments in the next year, but after that will have to push new funds into much more conservative holdings.

I'm demoing right now just to stay sharp and to test in real time the blending of two very different models. The regression model was built for institutional clients where scalability and low correlation to trend based models was key. Now that its a bulldog only model, I'd like to combine it with a good trend based model so I can capitalize on both periods in the market... in theory it works but I need to walk it forward a bit before I attach those hard earned pennies to it...

This demo is about to expire so I'll be firing another one up here as I anticipate the regression model will be back on line in a couple of days.

Even though it will be embarrasing to post because the initial funding level is going to be so small (you take what life gives you), I also intend on posting the live account too once its back up and running... reviewing a real trade statement (your own or that of others) can be a positive learning experience. I also think, knowing the statement will be under public scrutiny, will help me force my trading into that professional mode where I'm less likely to do something stupid... kind of a way to keep myself in check.

I just found out that I "recieved 1KT"; thanks! I'm still trying to figure out who vouched for me; as soon as I do I'll be sure to pm you a thank you...

Now if I could get my own version of 1KT (One Killer Trade) to work, I'd be set... LOL One trade... Good Bye. Till then I'll just settle for grinding my one percent or so a month.

Just for the record... I will be trying to post something a little more structured and formal than just the charts you saw today and yesterday... I'm trying to clean house and re-organize some of my work so it might take a couuple of days.

I'm in the process of filling in some data gaps on some of my spreadsheets but hope to have a little out look for the buck in a couple of hours...

Just a quick update of what I think our price action might look like tomorrow... I did my best to talk out of both sides of my mouth like a good analyst should... All that matters are the trades and right now I'm on the side (demo, real or otherwise)...

There will be a little more to follow...
Don't forget to click on the picture... its easier to read when it opens up in its own window.

Neutral consolidation pattern is emerging in the EUR/USD...

Just a quick update on the formation...

I don't think I'll be updating at all today... I've taken my data job to a different level... I'm actually going to create a brand new historical dataset and then use it as a scrub agains the old. This should give me a little more accuracy as I head into the next regression update.

Risk Management Weekend Style...
(I posted one of these in a different thread - it seemed appropriate to the conversation). Just thought I would post the whole sequence here so you can see the process, without getting the other thread too far off topic.

Thats absolutely awesome. I love offroading, but I do it a little differently. I race motocross and ride my dirtbike over most weekends. Nice jeep by the way!

Pretty tricky the way that rear tire is hanging out far enough to catch the rock and drive right up it.

Where is this?

Mike, I actually got my start in motorcross; after years of performing the "flying w" (before allowing your body to leave the bike was actually intentional or cool) I decided to move to activities where I'm actually tied into the mechanical device. I miss rippin around though... Had two 125's; a CR and an RM and then moved up to an RM 400... just about launched myself into terminal velocity with that thing... I only weiged 145lbs when I bought it and it just absolutely flew... the CR had to be the scariest bike I ever road; it came on the pipe late in the band and just had the most brutal head shake at high speeds.

If you have any pictures of you riding you should drop em in here... I mean, this is WHY we Forex It... so to me its all related