The Carry Situation

Greetings all,

Since most Yen crosses are pretty strongly correlated (with exception to the USDJPY due to everything being so popular against the dollar) I thought we should have a place to discuss recent activity on these pairs. Some very powerful moves are beginning to hint at a change in direction..we almost had climbed to the october top formations on the charts before the USD got hit in conjunction with corrections on the majors, giving strong bear bias IMHO. Currently I am selling rallies on the H4.

Take a look at the following daily pattern and tell me if this looks like a familiar setup to you. For the next 2 weeks and with continued credit worries hitting everyone, I see dead people. That is, 232 and 162 on GJ and EJ respectively.

Please also post if you have reason to think the exact opposite, or if you think nobody should have a clue at this stage. Also reply if you own a red car or a big dog. In fact, just reply, thanks.



-A

i have no dog, no car, no prediction, no clue, nothing to back me up

but i buy that gbp/jpy and usd/jpy most of the time, and still does.... for 2 cent a pip :

and i plan to buy again after today gbp interest rate news.

searching the bottom is hard, no?

i was never seeling,...but stocks in europe and globaly makes new lows,....for a week i think,...dam cheap prices,...i think,...still i only scalp,...i dont care if it goes 1k pips up or down,...or stay in range 162-167...as long as it moves...

Carry trading is a strategy I use on one of my accounts so I am very nterested on this thread.

First i would like to say that there is not JPY for carry, you have CHF and also other combinations. In my opinion it is important to mix the pairs you go against to limit the risk.

For the moment I am still clearly long on the xxxJPY (except USDJPY that I don't trade) and xxxCHF. My open trades are in drawdown but not very much and I am confident it will come back. The swap collected is also good to reduce the drawdown.

Anyway as the interest difference are still high between the pairs, for me the long term trend is still up. Of course there could still be some very strong "hickups" but that is more a matter of money management and diversification for handling the adverse situations.
So I would say on long term this is long, but of course if you talk about H4 it may be bearish and reach as you suggest 232 and 162, but for me that goes in a medium hickup category.

post anything? hmm, 251+ sooner than you expect :

Oh well, I guess not many people thought the chart to be interesting. I actually closed my most profitable single trade ever today as the above targets were reached faster than I thought. New chart says stay out until some retracement then watch the H4 closely. These are very big candle bars.

Dude, that is awesome on that huge trade.. Makes ya feel good to lock it in..

Keep it up!!

It looks to me like the equity markets will go into a full-blown bear scenario, at least until the fed makes it's next rate cut which is by no means definte for December. The markets are now actualy LOWER now then they were before the fed cut the overnight rate by 75 basis points.

I'm looking for a strong sell-off in all the JPY crosses as a result.