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I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #81
  • Nov 9, 2007 1:27am Nov 9, 2007 1:27am
Just a thought here but could oil hit 100 at or almost the same time EU hits 1.50? And if so what kind of sell off would that be?
Just Trade It
  • #82
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:56am Nov 9, 2007 6:56am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Just a thought here but could oil hit 100 at or almost the same time EU hits 1.50? And if so what kind of sell off would that be?
Probably about the same massive selloff we experienced when oil hit 60-70-80-90 and when the EURUSD hit 1.34-1.35-1.36-1.37-1.38-1.39-1.40-1.41-1.42-1.43-1.44-1.45-1.46.

There wasn't one.
  • #83
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:31am Nov 9, 2007 7:31am
Quoting philmcgrew
Probably about the same massive selloff we experienced when oil hit 60-70-80-90 ...... There wasn't one.
err, where were you when oil sold off for 25 bucks after breching $70? unless your timeframe is a decade, that was a "massive" selloff:
Relax and be happy.
  • #84
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:42am Nov 9, 2007 7:42am
Quoting merlin
err, where were you when oil sold off for 25 bucks after breching $70? unless your timeframe is a decade, that was a "massive" selloff:
I'm not seeing that on the chart. Even if there was a selloff at $70 was it because it hit a meaningless round number or was there a fundamental reason?
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  • #85
  • Nov 9, 2007 9:21am Nov 9, 2007 9:21am
I also own a wholesale engine business. I sell to other shops. Have had the business for over 20 years. Well. we end up collecting a lot of used motor oil. In the past, we have had to pay to have someone come and pump out the tanks and take the oil away. I usually have this done once a year. Well, this week they came and pumped out the tanks and they gave me a check for the 200 gallons they pumped out. I guess I went long oil and did not even know it.... LOL
  • #86
  • Nov 9, 2007 9:25am Nov 9, 2007 9:25am
Quoting smjones
I also own a wholesale engine business. I sell to other shops. Have had the business for over 20 years. Well. we end up collecting a lot of used motor oil. In the past, we have had to pay to have someone come and pump out the tanks and take the oil away. I usually have this done once a year. Well, this week they came and pumped out the tanks and they gave me a check for the 200 gallons they pumped out. I guess I went long oil and did not even know it.... LOL
If you're long product you can sell futures against it and lock in your profits. Or buy puts and make a synthetic call.
  • #87
  • Nov 9, 2007 10:01am Nov 9, 2007 10:01am
Quoting philmcgrew
I'm not seeing that on the chart.
look further back!

Quoting philmcgrew
Even if there was a selloff at $70 was it because it hit a meaningless round number or was there a fundamental reason?
why there was a fundamental reason, of course....OPEC started selling and shook out the weak longs, which created a slide that took out a bundle of stoplosses that was a great trade and im waiting for it to happen agian!

edit: come to think of it, the meaningless $70 mark might have come into play, because thats what i believe OPEC was defending.
Relax and be happy.
  • #88
  • Nov 9, 2007 10:03am Nov 9, 2007 10:03am
Quoting smjones
Well, this week they came and pumped out the tanks and they gave me a check for the 200 gallons they pumped out. I guess I went long oil and did not even know it.... LOL
LOL!! nice!
Relax and be happy.
  • #89
  • Nov 9, 2007 12:00pm Nov 9, 2007 12:00pm
well this week has come and gone and oil didn't hit 3 figures. still it's on the up and perhaps next week it might test 100.
  • #90
  • Nov 10, 2007 7:02am Nov 10, 2007 7:02am
i dont know,..am not sure,..oil might or might not go over 100usd,...but this articel i must read http://www.gocurrency.com/outlook-usd-cad.htm,..canadian news were not briliant this week,...it may as well happen,..that oil goes above 100 usd, and cad/usd still will reverse,..or i dont know,..just marking the link to read indeept later tomorow,...also attaching the weekly predicted chart for usd/cad....which might or might not happen, so pls use stops if trading it...:,...yen and dolar also looking bulish in weeks to come,..since many futures are being expired,..in november and december this year...
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its just money
  • #91
  • Nov 10, 2007 8:26am Nov 10, 2007 8:26am
Boys and girls, we hit peak oil over 2 years ago. The plateau at the top is over and we are starting down the backside of oil production. Except for brief retraces, oil is going to do nothing but go up until the world economy collapses.

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  • #92
  • Nov 10, 2007 4:43pm Nov 10, 2007 4:43pm
We hit peak oil back in the twenties and again in the sixties and again........................................ except when then discover new reserves in Alaska or deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico or in ............or here, there and everywhere they can think of.

Plastic (PVC) pipe replaced cooper in indoor plumbing uses etc. Price and utility of use were far superior. But copper is still used in limited industries. Nothing like the past though.

The same fate is in line for crude oil. We will probably never run out of it. It just is going to price itself out of being the dominant fuel source. Alternatives whatever they are will replace crude. But runout no, the world would shut down. It ain't happening.
  • #93
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:44am Nov 11, 2007 5:44am
Markam, don't get so excited by the thought of a global economic collapse because it isn't going to happen.

The best case scenario, albeit painful, would be for high prices to advance the research for alternate power sources such as nuclear, wind, clean coal, waves, ethanols, fuel cells, and hybrid technology.

The oil crisis of the 1970s inspired France to build enough nuclear power plants that today, 80% of their country is powered by clean, safe nuclear energy. You don't see France sending troops into the middle east, or getting knotted up over rising oil prices. They made a choice and that choice is paying huge dividends now. Many nations are now exploring alternative sources. What was once just lip service is now serious research and development.

There will certainly be pain associated with high oil and gas prices but there will also be some positive progress made in exploring alternative sources.

If we fail to do so we will slowly transfer our wealth and empower nations that have traditionally been very at odds with us.
  • #94
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:55pm Nov 11, 2007 12:55pm
Oil is about to go into a bit of a retreat now. The dollar is set to get stronger vs. the high yielders as equities continue to sell off and oil will continue to move inversely to the dollar.
  • #95
  • Nov 11, 2007 4:09pm Nov 11, 2007 4:09pm
Maybe.
  • #96
  • Nov 11, 2007 4:27pm Nov 11, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Oil is about to go into a bit of a retreat now. The dollar is set to get stronger vs. the high yielders as equities continue to sell off and oil will continue to move inversely to the dollar.
Why do you think oil moves inversely to the dollar? Which one is the tail and which is the dog?
  • #97
  • Nov 12, 2007 5:51am Nov 12, 2007 5:51am
Not sure about the tail/dog thing Phil-my opinion is that since oil sales are denomimated in dollars, it's where the dollar goes that moves oil.

Anyone else care to wiegh in here?

As the dollar improves here and oil falls, the financial press will attribute the price decrease in the weak economy and expected weak demand, but I think it's all about the dollar.

I'm sure the reasons for this are many though. Perhaps big oil companies or wholesalers are shorting the dollar with the euro...things along those lines.

Supposedly every hedge fund is short dollars and long oil. There's a lot of things going on here.
  • #98
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:10am Nov 12, 2007 7:10am
Quoting philmcgrew
80% of their country is powered by clean, safe nuclear energy.
Are those the ones that tend to dish out cancer causing waste after a while which radiates with a half life of a few hundred+ years or are we talking about some other safe and clean nuclear energy? ;p

Everything's clean and safe as long as the end storage isn't your front yard

Just like war(over oil or out of boredom, whichever works) isn't ever much of a fuss as long as it isn't your front yard etc pp...

At some point we'll run out of far away places, then what!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #99
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:03am Nov 12, 2007 8:03am
Here's a surprise from FT.com:

Meanwhile, in the currency market, the yen was sharply higher as investors unwound carry trades, based on borrowing yen and using the proceeds to buy higher yielding assets. With the dollar rallying versus the euro and sterling, oil prices were down more than a dollar in early New York trade.
  • #100
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:21am Nov 12, 2007 8:21am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Not sure about the tail/dog thing Phil-my opinion is that since oil sales are denomimated in dollars, it's where the dollar goes that moves oil.
Since April of this year the USD has dropped 15% while oil rose 41%. So you can't completely blame the USD for the price of oil. Supply and demand has not changed over the near term (long term definitely) so clearly, something else makes oil move. What is that "something?"
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