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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #49,261
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:42am Nov 9, 2007 7:42am
Look for a retracement here shortly
  • #49,262
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:44am Nov 9, 2007 7:44am
Dow futures are -105 and if the consumer sentiment number is bad, I think we will test or break the dow low set back in August. If so, that may start a full-fledged run on the stock market.
  • #49,263
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:46am Nov 9, 2007 7:46am
Quoting charvo
so Gene, you are predicting a rebounce back to 238~239 from now to next week?

Thanks for more insights.
You can scroll and find the charts that I posted, you'll see why I was saying certain things, 231.50 is IT fo this week, 232 is more likely, but as is, the price had reached it's objectives and will retrace. I haven't been bying for a while now, since the 30th of October, I only sell, lock in profits and sell more. The price should retrace all next week, how high, maybe it will even decide to touch 240, that will make me extra happy. But at present I KNOW that the price will fall, untill the 26th that's the big day, I can only speculate to what level the price will rise, I don't care as it is not important to spent so much time on a retrace, just identify the major comfortable levels and time points. Watch out for the 16th, I might be off by 1 day. Could be 15th or 19th for the main fall. So far though I've been deadly accurate, just follow the analyses. I post at the beginning of the week.
Happy trading, time for a lottttttt of VODKA overthe weekend, and some analyses on Sunday, lol it's not everyday that this type of volatility comes along. You go to pay your respects.
  • #49,264
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:46am Nov 9, 2007 7:46am
Quoting Zoran
I'm short from close to the top with a target 2.0665.
I was short earlier (before the UK trade balance report came out) .. held on.. but GU went on a rampage up north.. so closed that position for a -10 pip loss. I couldn't hold on.. lol.

When that 100 pip dip took place, I went long.. closed my position for 30 pips profit when I realized that they had temporarily suspended trading of Barclays stocks.. good thing I caught that in time!

Closed my GJ short when UJ hit 111.00.. made some mega pips on that one, so I'm very happy. I can't imagine what it's like to be you.. with a TP of 1000 pips. Excellent, simply excellent job!
  • #49,265
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:49am Nov 9, 2007 7:49am
Quoting markam
Dow futures are -105 and if the consumer sentiment number is bad, I think we will test or break the dow low set back in August. If so, that may start a full-fledged run on the stock market.

What kind of number is 'bad'. How low?
  • #49,266
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:49am Nov 9, 2007 7:49am
Quoting gene22
You can scroll and find the charts that I posted, you'll see why I was saying certain things, 231.50 is IT fo this week, 232 is more likely, but as is, the price had reached it's objectives and will retrace. I haven't been bying for a while now, since the 30th of October, I only sell, lock in profits and sell more. The price should retrace all next week, how high, maybe it will even decide to touch 240, that will make me extra happy. But at present I KNOW that the price will fall, untill the 26th that's the big day, I can only speculate to what level the price will rise, I don't care as it is not important to spent so much time on a retrace, just identify the major comfortable levels and time points. Watch out for the 16th, I might be off by 1 day. Could be 15th or 19th for the main fall. So far though I've been deadly accurate, just follow the analyses. I post at the beginning of the week.
Happy trading, time for a lottttttt of VODKA overthe weekend, and some analyses on Sunday, lol it's not everyday that this type of volatility comes along. You go to pay your respects.
Great job Gene. A bad day in the US market could easily take us down to your 231.5 minimum.
  • #49,267
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:52am Nov 9, 2007 7:52am
Great job by Gene, Markam and Zoran.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #49,268
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:52am Nov 9, 2007 7:52am
Quoting VishalJ
I was short earlier (before the UK trade balance report came out) .. held on.. but GU went on a rampage up north.. so closed that position for a -10 pip loss. I couldn't hold on.. lol.

When that 100 pip dip took place, I went long.. closed my position for 30 pips profit when I realized that they had temporarily suspended trading of Barclays stocks.. good thing I caught that in time!

Closed my GJ short when UJ hit 111.00.. made some mega pips on that one, so I'm very happy. I can't imagine what it's like to be you.. with a TP of 1000 pips. Excellent, simply excellent job!
I posted my cable call last night here - shame you didn't read it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post1706811

Next time I make a big call, why not just put a micro-lot or two on it and just let it be. Practice makes perfect.
  • #49,269
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:54am Nov 9, 2007 7:54am
Quoting gene22
You can scroll and find the charts that I posted, you'll see why I was saying certain things, 231.50 is IT fo this week, 232 is more likely, but as is, the price had reached it's objectives and will retrace. I haven't been bying for a while now, since the 30th of October, I only sell, lock in profits and sell more. The price should retrace all next week, how high, maybe it will even decide to touch 240, that will make me extra happy. But at present I KNOW that the price will fall, untill the 26th that's the big day, I can only speculate to what level the price will rise, I don't care as it is not important to spent so much time on a retrace, just identify the major comfortable levels and time points. Watch out for the 16th, I might be off by 1 day. Could be 15th or 19th for the main fall. So far though I've been deadly accurate, just follow the analyses. I post at the beginning of the week.
Happy trading, time for a lottttttt of VODKA overthe weekend, and some analyses on Sunday, lol it's not everyday that this type of volatility comes along. You go to pay your respects.
So you are calling for a retrace next week higher before the bigger fall?
  • #49,270
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:54am Nov 9, 2007 7:54am
Quoting dimmi
What kind of number is 'bad'. How low?

I think it will be below 75, but I have real doubts about the validity of that survey. As for the dow, it is heading for the 10,000-11,000 range at least. It will happen sometime between next week and the first quarter of next year.
  • #49,271
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:55am Nov 9, 2007 7:55am
Quoting Zoran
I posted my cable call last night here - shame you didn't read it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post1706811

Next time I make a big call, why not just put a micro-lot or two on it and just let it be. Practice makes perfect.
Ahh, missed that one. I decided to go short today, but exited rather prematurely.. still need to practice on holding on to my trades :
  • #49,272
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:57am Nov 9, 2007 7:57am
Quoting Zoran
I'm short from close to the top with a target 2.0665.
2.0600 for me, or could be lower, will analyse for price points, I'll leave a bit to see what happens, but I'm biased on a freak spike to take out the stops back to the top sometime today. I still have more ammunition to load.
  • #49,273
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:01am Nov 9, 2007 8:01am
That black trendline is providing support for the moment. Could be a good long scalp line.
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  • #49,274
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:02am Nov 9, 2007 8:02am
Sorry, wrong chart
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  • #49,275
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:04am Nov 9, 2007 8:04am
The retrace back to 237-240 area before the bigger fall starting now?
  • #49,276
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:06am Nov 9, 2007 8:06am
Quoting Geldmeister
Missed out on 400 pips because 4h MOM was up @ 9am GMT - I am really pissed and do seriously question the validity of going by what this indicator says at candle opening! If MOM is up and then price shoots down in the course of 4h, the indicator will obviously change also, so what is the validity of MOM here??? maybe I am just too stupid to grasp the concept of this Aus indicator...
GM,

Just a quick post here to help you understand Momentum a bit better. First, you should never use the Momentum indicator on one time frame alone to enter a trade unless you are just scalping for a few pips. Even then it could be hazardous. Second, 4H TFs vary from platform to platform and, therefore, some indicators which underlie price can be inconclusive or difficult to interpret. Third, Momentum always works. If it is pointing up on one TF and price goes down during that time period, check out what the Momentum on other TFs (higher and lower) was doing during that time. That is the most effective way to learn how to use the Momentum indicator. As Aus said above, since the Daily Momentum was pointing down from the beginning of the day, the overall bias for the day was down, or at the least, a big down thrust should have been expected at some point. The chart below is my current 4H which opened at 1200 GMT (7AM EST). Notice how bullish the Momentum is, and yet currently, halfway through the candle, we are looking at a doji. What happened? The strong bearish Daily is pushing down and the lower TFs have been flat to stagnant since 1200 GMT. This candle has already had an upthrust large enough to fulfill its bullishness, even if it doesn't end up being a good bullish candle. At this point, for the next two hours, I would watch the TFs underneath the 4H to see how their Momentums turn from candle to candle and look for opportunities there. If we get a strong Momentum 1H candle at 1500 GMT, that might be a good opportunity to try a long on a retracement since it would agree with the strong 4H Momentum. Study Momentum from the Larger TFs down and you will begin to catch on as to how it works.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,277
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:06am Nov 9, 2007 8:06am
Zoran,

Strong work
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #49,278
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:06am Nov 9, 2007 8:06am
I'm long from 233.00 and 233.82. Lets see where this takes us.
  • #49,279
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:12am Nov 9, 2007 8:12am
M2Buoys,

Thanks for the concise explanation. I'm able to understand this important aspect, one which I've overlooked in the past, much better after your answer.
  • #49,280
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:14am Nov 9, 2007 8:14am
Here is a look at Momentum on the 1H chart. It is basically flat, which tells me that it could be pulled in either direction over the next 45 minutes, especially since NY is opening in 15 minutes. 4H Momentum is up, but has already experienced a spike up, which means it could be fulfilled. 1H Momentum flat, undecided. I would watch the 30M and even the 15M Momentums to get a heads up on where price might be headed in the immediate future.

M2B

PS- And just so this doesn't confuse, this analysis is intraday, not for longer term trade ideas.
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