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Supernova GBP/JPY Mini Trend Catcher

  • #2,681
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:24am Nov 9, 2007 4:24am
Hi,

I hope I am not boring you with these posts but this one goes hand in hand with the last. Last post I explained why I did not take a trade - here is the reason I put more into this one.

Price had stalled at the pivot which was also close to a psych level at the round number of 237.00. Once that broke and closed below I figured I was good for at least 20 pips. It ended up being much better but I was looking for 20 - I always want 20.

I exited 2 lots at +20 and moved my stop to break even. I exited another 2 at the psych level of 236.50 and also because price bobbled there for a bit. I also moved my stop up at that point but it is hard to show it on the chart lol.

Price then continued down and broke 236.00 but you can see the S1 pivot near there which it bounced off of. I exited the rest of my position there on the bounce - reason being it usually reverses at this point if it bounces.

Obviously price continued going down (so I was wrong) and I don't know where it will end up but I had to make the call in real time so I got out at that point.

Sorry this was long winded but I thought it might be of help to anyone trading manually.

Have a great weekend all!

NOFX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,682
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:33am Nov 9, 2007 4:33am
Quoting Nofx
Hi All,

I have posted several trades here that I have made and I don't want anyone to get the idea that I never have losing trades. They do happen and I will post a picture of that when it happens. It doesn't happen very often but I wanted to illustrate why I do not take trades even if the indicators agree. This keeps me out of a lot of losing trades. This picture is of a trade I did not take because price was bouncing off of a pivot. You can see that price had tested and rejected the pivot on the previous 2 candles. I like to have a clean break and close beyond an S/R point whether it be pivots or S/R lines I draw on the chart manually. The exception being if there is obviously strong momentum behind a move.

I hope this makes sense. Just something I like to look out for.

Good trading as always,

NOFX
Very nice, Dogster!

So here is more into the direction "no free lunch"! Without thorough thinking the manual side is not unfailable either. But you have to get though this process in order to understand why the EAs may sometimes have a bad day or two. They do not think - but you may actually have a chance to take them off. So please learn!

Thanks for the brilliant example and also another thing: I did not PM Nofx to make my case stronger by this!

Ciao
Gnat
  • #2,683
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:42am Nov 9, 2007 4:42am
Quoting Nofx
Hi,

I hope I am not boring you with these posts but this one goes hand in hand with the last. Last post I explained why I did not take a trade - here is the reason I put more into this one.

Price had stalled at the pivot which was also close to a psych level at the round number of 237.00. Once that broke and closed below I figured I was good for at least 20 pips. It ended up being much better but I was looking for 20 - I always want 20.

I exited 2 lots at +20 and moved my stop to break even. I exited another 2 at the psych level of 236.50 and also because price bobbled there for a bit. I also moved my stop up at that point but it is hard to show it on the chart lol.

Price then continued down and broke 236.00 but you can see the S1 pivot near there which it bounced off of. I exited the rest of my position there on the bounce - reason being it usually reverses at this point if it bounces.

Obviously price continued going down (so I was wrong) and I don't know where it will end up but I had to make the call in real time so I got out at that point.

Sorry this was long winded but I thought it might be of help to anyone trading manually.

Have a great weekend all!

NOFX
Great post again Doggy!

Waiting for an obvious scenario is the key here and knowing a bit about price action helped. And there you also gave me some extra credit in entering with a bigger lotsize!
On the 4H chart you also may have found the reason for it to turn around at about 235.50ish region as we are in a channel pointing down and this is the lower trendline there. I will not include a chart at this time as mine is also carrying the Ichimuko and it'll look just complicated.

If it breakes this we may see 234.17 by the way, but I am not an oracle here at all! Trading doggy-style really pays out!! Cool!!

Hope you got through the dragonegg day without too much trouble!

Ciao
GMatt
  • #2,684
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:47am Nov 9, 2007 4:47am
All the Yen-crosses are drawing a very thin line at the moment. It really looks like planning an attack!
  • #2,685
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:51am Nov 9, 2007 4:51am
LOL! you are great Gnat!

I always look forward to hearing from you. I think I am gonna hang up my trading shoes for the week. I have family coming to visit for the weekend and I am a little tired (although I just made a pot of coffee) I will stick around and browse for awhile until the coffee wears off. So how is the new EA going? You making any progress? I know there are always wrinkles to iron out in a new version. I am trying to follow along but I don't know all the language. I know you will be a good teacher for me when the time comes.

Have a great weekend!

NOFX
  • #2,686
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:53am Nov 9, 2007 4:53am
Anyone have any recommendations for re-entries? Its always ashame that one exits too early and then go on to see the crosses move further and further....
  • #2,687
  • Nov 9, 2007 4:58am Nov 9, 2007 4:58am
Quoting Gnat
Trading doggy-style really pays out!!

You are killing me! I should use that as my signature.

Doin' it doggy style,

NOFX
  • #2,688
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:00am Nov 9, 2007 5:00am
Nofx

When you enter a trade, you are basically waiting for one candle to close below the Support [since support line was there when the signal came], and then will enter on the next candle.
  • #2,689
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:08am Nov 9, 2007 5:08am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Anyone have any recommendations for re-entries? Its always ashame that one exits too early and then go on to see the crosses move further and further....
Hi ET!

I am no expert by any stretch of the imagination but I am a very firm believer in S/R lines. I usually draw them on the daily and 4 hr charts and translate any relevant ones to the lower time frames that I trade. So when price bounces off a good S/R line and then later breaks strongly or breaks and closes beyond it is a good re-entry signal for me. I usually close out a position on the bounce - then if price breaks the bounce point I can re-enter. I usually use this on higher time frames (4hr and Daily) but the same lines apply for the lower time frames.

I hope this makes sense. I am a little rummy - LOL!

NOFX
  • #2,690
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:14am Nov 9, 2007 5:14am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Nofx

When you enter a trade, you are basically waiting for one candle to close below the Support [since support line was there when the signal came], and then will enter on the next candle.

ET,

I don't always do that. I only pay attention to that when price is near a significant S/R line from the 4hr chart or near a psychological level such as prices that end in .00 or .50. I trade off the 15 min chart so sometimes price is in between these levels when I get a signal - if so I will take the trade but always be aware of the S/R levels.

Does that help? I can take another stab at it if it doesn't make sense.

Good trading,

NOFX
  • #2,691
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:20am Nov 9, 2007 5:20am
Nofx

Your explanation is very clear.... Thanks.

It seems that my Pivot Levels are way off compared to what you have on your charts since I use these MQ4 program PivotPoint to plot it. Its no wonder my timing is off - I'm using MIG which GMT+2. My settings are:
PivotSet 1
DayStartHour 2

I should manually calculate the PIVOTs to confirm it....
  • #2,692
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:28am Nov 9, 2007 5:28am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Nofx

Your explanation is very clear.... Thanks.

It seems that my Pivot Levels are way off compared to what you have on your charts since I use these MQ4 program PivotPoint to plot it. Its no wonder my timing is off - I'm using MIG which GMT+2. My settings are:
PivotSet 1
DayStartHour 2

I should manually calculate the PIVOTs to confirm it....
Are you using mt4 and if so what pivot indicator? I will gladly send you the file for the indicator I use if you would like it. LOL! obviously you are using mt4 - sorry I haven't slept for a good while.
  • #2,693
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:36am Nov 9, 2007 5:36am
Quoting Nofx
LOL! you are great Gnat!

I always look forward to hearing from you. I think I am gonna hang up my trading shoes for the week. I have family coming to visit for the weekend and I am a little tired (although I just made a pot of coffee) I will stick around and browse for awhile until the coffee wears off. So how is the new EA going? You making any progress? I know there are always wrinkles to iron out in a new version. I am trying to follow along but I don't know all the language. I know you will be a good teacher for me when the time comes.

Have a great weekend!

NOFX
Sorry - La Dragoness ordered me to lunch! (EDIT: La Dragoness is really straight I guess!)

Well, on the EA front we will have to live with the few flaws that are left in order to keep the thing from not becoming completely curvefitting. But even the most basic setting from a few months ago still make up to 70% of the optimal pippage so everyone can find out his/her own little method there. I will surely help you as soon as we are "finished"!
Maybe I should be an oralce anyway - GBPJPY just bounced off the 234.17 - LOL!!
Have a good weekend with the family (are the in-laws coming??).

See ya next week then!
Ciao
Gnatster
  • #2,694
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:39am Nov 9, 2007 5:39am
Quoting Nofx
You are killing me! I should use that as my signature.

Doin' it doggy style,

NOFX


Knew you would love it...
  • #2,695
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:40am Nov 9, 2007 5:40am
Quoting Nofx
Are you using mt4 and if so what pivot indicator? I will gladly send you the file for the indicator I use if you would like it. LOL! obviously you are using mt4 - sorry I haven't slept for a good while.
I'm using MT4 PivotPoints, I think that is what you are using also. If not, I would appreciate you can send it to me.

Thanks,
ET
  • #2,696
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:47am Nov 9, 2007 5:47am
Quoting Gnat
Sorry - Le Dragoness ordered me to lunch!

Well, on the EA front we will have to live with the few flaws that are left in order to keep the thing from not becoming completely curvefitting. But even the most basic setting from a few months ago still make up to 70% of the optimal pippage so everyone can find out his/her own little method there. I will surely help you as soon as we are "finished"!
Maybe I should be an oralce anyway - GBPJPY just bounced off the 234.17 - LOL!!
Have a good weekend with the family (are the in-laws coming??).

See ya next week then!
Ciao
Gnatster
Hola Flyman,

Ya my mother-in-law and my sister-in.-law are coming to spend the weekend. They are great though - no worries - I enjoy their company. Price did bounce there and you will notice that is exactly where my S2 pivot is. LOL! I was just too lazy or more accurately satisfied with my previous trade to re-enter. If there is one thing I have learned it is that there is always another trade tomorrow. I look forward to learning the basics of the EA from you - I will definitely need some assistance with that!

Talk to ya soon.

NOFX
  • #2,697
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:52am Nov 9, 2007 5:52am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
I'm using MT4 PivotPoints, I think that is what you are using also. If not, I would appreciate you can send it to me.

Thanks,
ET

I am using this one - I think it is a little different. One problem with this one is I have found that when a new day starts the lines get all bunched up together and are not in the right places. I delete the indicator and then re- attach it when a new day starts on my charts. I'm sure there is a better solution but I am not very swift with computers but it works for me.

NOFX
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Pivot.mq4   5 KB | 374 downloads
  • #2,698
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:58am Nov 9, 2007 5:58am
Holla Lord Cryten!

We are strong on the manual front here today!
And Awesome is alive, but taken by pirates to the forbidden land of Georgia!

Greetings <bow>
Horad of the Flies (courtesy of Dogmaster No)
  • #2,699
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:03am Nov 9, 2007 6:03am
Quoting Gnat
Holla Lord Cryten!

We are strong on the manual front here today!
And Awesome is alive, but taken by pirates to the forbidden land of Georgia!

Greetings <bow>
Horad of the Flies (courtesy of Dogmaster No)
Yes, but we will retrieve her by force if necessary! LOL!

Dog-faced boy
  • #2,700
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:05am Nov 9, 2007 6:05am
OMG! Cryten you woke up!
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