Should I attempt Elliot Wave? | Forex Factory

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Should I attempt Elliot Wave?

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 27, 2006 5:02pm Dec 27, 2006 5:02pm
I feel that I am at a crucial point in learning Forex right now. I think that with a couple of good books and 6-12 months more live trading, I could confidently step into the world of full time trading. However, Elliot wave is appealing to me. Should I attempt to learn it? It seems like I could spend the time necessary to learn it (years, I hear) since I am a college student. But on the other hand I think that I could be profitable without it. Also, the books mentioned above are Trading in the Zone and Quantitive Trading and Money Management, if any one is wondering.

Thanks,
andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #2
  • Dec 27, 2006 5:21pm Dec 27, 2006 5:21pm
Quoting andersenws
However, Elliot wave is appealing to me. Should I attempt to learn it?
Thanks,
andersenws
God no, don't waste your time. Elliot waves are always correct after the fact. You can't even be sure you are in a good wave sequence until the largest wave (3) is over. If you're lucky, you get a small retracement (wave 4) and an then a small higher high (wave 5) after which it gets all confusing which the EW guys call A-B-C unless that doesn't work out. Go to the library and look for a book by Bob Prechter, 5 minutes with that and you'll quickly realize that you are making things a lot more difficult than they have to be. Prechter, condsidered by many to be the authority on EW, famously missed the entire tech bubble using elliot waves.

I went to seminars on EW, bought books, bought some very expensive EW scanning software, watched videos and tried for over a year to make it work for me so I feel mildly qualified to offer an opinion on the subject.

Best wishes regardless of your decision.
  • #3
  • Dec 27, 2006 5:26pm Dec 27, 2006 5:26pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Elliot waves are always correct after the fact.
Almost all the EW stuff Ive seen costs a pretty price. You know why? Because hindsight trading is the best thing to teach. It makes the teacher look awesome, and makes the student always want to keep learning (and spending) more.

I agree with Phil.
  • #4
  • Dec 27, 2006 5:41pm Dec 27, 2006 5:41pm
I agree with the prior two posters.

I spent a LOT of time with EWT, subscribed to newsletters, studied, then studied some more. It didn't help the bottom line. I do recommend learning the basics; there are some useful concepts there.
  • #5
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:16pm Dec 27, 2006 6:16pm
Thanks for the replies, I was leaning against it. The time required to learn it seemed excessive, and as I mentioned, I think there are easier ways to make money in Forex.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #6
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:21pm Dec 27, 2006 6:21pm
Quoting andersenws
Thanks for the replies, I was leaning against it. The time required to learn it seemed excessive, and as I mentioned, I think there are easier ways to make money in Forex.

andersenws
dude learn candlesticks..it's all you need
  • #7
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:27pm Dec 27, 2006 6:27pm
Listen the best way to make money in FX is by using EWT the so called "big boys" everyone talks about use EWT to a tee. Bankers too. Trust me on that from an inside source. Take a look at my thread. Count is right you make money plain and simple. I have been killing the cable the last couple of days usiing EWT. Im in a cad trade now that i believe im in wrong but the good thing about EWT is when you are in a trade wrong you dont have to panic and take a huge loss you can just wait for your retrace then get out for small profit or very small loss. Hope this helps. Also if you do decide to use EWT DONT BY THE SOFTWARE you will loose money.



Quoting andersenws
Thanks for the replies, I was leaning against it. The time required to learn it seemed excessive, and as I mentioned, I think there are easier ways to make money in Forex.

andersenws
  • #8
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:58pm Dec 27, 2006 6:58pm
Quoting fixme1too
EWT, fibs, channels support and resistance, rsi and price action.
That is a quote from your journal today when asked what you use. True EW traders don't use all that other stuff. You use it because because EW by itself is weak at best.
  • #9
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:02pm Dec 27, 2006 7:02pm
I just started using the other stuff recently. Like the start of this trading week on tuesday. For better entry to the pip. Philmcgrew look at the rest of the thread better yet let me post my stats until I stopped posting them because of envious ppl such as yourself.



Quoting philmcgrew
That is a quote from your journal today when asked what you use. True EW traders don't use all that other stuff. You use it because because EW by itself is weak at best.
  • #10
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:06pm Dec 27, 2006 7:06pm
I received trading signals for a year from the supposed best ellioticians on the planet, they were horrible and I wouldn't use them if they paid me. Great intellectual topic if that is what you are looking for, but in a practical sense, there is absolutely nothing useful about it. Just my opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #11
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:08pm Dec 27, 2006 7:08pm
One thing I always notice about EW. The trader will indicate all the reasons why he is going short or long. ...Then as a sideline they will mention that Elliot Wave theory also supports the expected move. LOL

I don't dismiss it at all. Some traders genuinely swear by it. So I beleive it can work for some.
To me, it just seems to be a matter of trying to push shit up hill when other techniques do it easier.

I did an online course years ago over many weeks. It just didn't work for me at all. ....Again , I'm sure it suits some people over others.

That all said. I'll probably attempt it again some day. Especially since learning so much more besides.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:12pm Dec 27, 2006 7:12pm
USC I believe i was answering your question. But these are my results for less than 2 months I use to do a editorial every friday for the moves take on the week to come. No system is a 100% but for me EWT is very accurate. heres my results for less than 2 months along with an example of what i would post every Friday. Since then I have gotten better or enhanced my system by adding a time aspect along with channels and fib pivots. Not that its need but it can help in reference to entry and exit without leaving some pips on the table.These results were from 9 11 06 to 11 1 06

Originally Posted by fixme1too


<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1>



<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->A LOOK AT THIS WEEK







USDCAD closed today this trade was opened maybe mid week at 1.1345 to 1.1263 today. I got off before NFP for tp of 50 pips

AUDUSD opened this week at 7690 for a short position. This pair went as high as 7767 for the week. My initial stop was to be 7750 but I extended due to USD news. Stop never got hit but I did take a small loss of 5 pips on the pair.

FiXmE1ToO Center Pointe is 3 and 3 so far since since start. Lets see how it does next week.
10-25-06 +50 pips
10-26-06 +50 pips
10-27-06 +50 pips
10-31-06 -50 pips NFPweek
11-1-06 -50 pips NFP
11-2-06 - 50 pips NFP
Does anyone have suggestions for other pairs to trade That will have good ATR and not expensive to trade?

Totals todate since 9-11-06
+1401
+1051 since 9-11-06


WEEK TO COME

USDCAD may go up some, I will need to watch may go a little higher to before making its way down to 1.1085. I really need to evaluate this pair a little more this weekend I feel like I'm getting mixed signals on this pair. Will update more later.


USDJPY I believe we will go up to between 118.77 and mid 199.00's. We have completed a Big B wave on this pair once we make it to between those numbers, then we should start the C wave down for big profits. This is the same thing thats I believe is happening with USDCAD

AUDUSD "Lets wait to see if an A wave form on the 4hour chart if it does we let B wave complete then catch the C wave down will post numbers later in week after an A wave forms. But from the looks of things we are already forming an A wave that may go to .7600-.7550 lets stay out of this one until it shows its hand." That was posted from last week. From indicators that I use on determining which direction a pair should move. I used the same on this pair. This just goes to show anything can happen when trading but this also shows how valuable it is to know EW theory. You see, by knowing and understanding EW theory you can not only determine best entry points but also best exit points when in bad trade. I was close to being 80 pips down in this pair. My saving grace was knowing we could not go much higher in this pair based on being pass extreme fib levels and getting close to 80 on the RSI. This allowed me to exit this trade for 5 pip loss instead of 80 pip loss. I will post some EW theory this weekend and I have an EW theory e-book I can email to those of you that would like a copy. I havent read the book but from looking at the pictures, it looks like it may explain complex waves really well. Just IM me with email address and I will send book.


EURUSD Well with this pair, it did exactly as predicted missing my predicted entry point of 1.2800 by 1 pip. Since hitting the 1.2799 mark this pair has dropped 120 pips to a low of 1.2679 for the week and close at 1.2716 for the day. The prediction for it to drop from 1.2800 was made mid week after this pair finally decided to show its hand. The market moved very slow at cautiously this week due to so much USD news that was due to come out, otherwise tp marks would have possibly been hit on some pairs.
TP on this pair for the week should be a modest 1.2551 by EW RULE . Now if this pair decides to form a Complex wave this pair will go down to 1.2344 but tp for now should be 1.2551 SL can be at 1.2850. After we finish this wave LOOK OUT FOR BIG PROFIT !!!!!!!!!!!!
as we trade wave C up.


and THE GOOD OLE GBPUSD I believe hit its point early this week plus some. Would you guys agree?? This bad boy really showed off for us LOL. I hope somebody made some money on this pair. I really dont trade wave 1's because they are the only waves with no true end point all you know is it is supposed to overshadow the previous wave but you dont know by how much but this does not always happen. Now GBPUSD should go down to between 1.8748 and 1.8644. 1.8644 is the extreme fib which we know is more like the GBPUSD fib lol. This pair is just plain ole greedy. Would'nt you agree? This pair will hit it's extreme fibs more times than not. Once we get here PLEASE HAVE SOME MONEY FREE TO GET IN ON THE RIDE UP ON THIS PAIR. This pair is literally going to the moon from that point. "I gotta tell ya" as my New York co-worker would say.

I really hope you guys made out good this week. This was a tough week but I faired ok. My rule is not to trade in a week with so much news especially big news but wanted to see how our system would do. Did'nt do to bad I must say.

Oh and one more thing before I forget, Center point had a piss poor week with now wins. Lets keep this in our "MIND'S EYE" DON'T USE CENTER POINT IN NFP WEEK OR WHEN WE ARE ABOUT TO REVERSE ON TREND.

Hope everyone have a very nice weekend and lets make some money next week and have fun doing it.http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________
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IF IT DON'T MAKE DOLLARS IT DON'T MAKE SENSE
<!-- / sig --><!-- edit note -->
  • #13
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:26pm Dec 27, 2006 7:26pm
your performance is so easy going +50 -50 +50 -50. is that your tp and sl 50 and do you stick to it that well or is this all theoretical(demo)?
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #14
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:29pm Dec 27, 2006 7:29pm
This was not EWT It was system I no longer use based on the center point for the day. H+L/2 then trade based on that number but it was not successful good for shorter term trades though to scalp if thats what you are into.



Quoting Leugimp
your performance is so easy going +50 -50 +50 -50. is that your tp and sl 50 and do you stick to it that well or is this all theoretical(demo)?
  • #15
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:33pm Dec 27, 2006 7:33pm
By the way look at where the CABLE and EURO was trading. That was 11-01-06 trading in the high 8800's so was the EURO trading low from there to now. Need I say anymore and This was only EWT. NOTHING ELSE. The move for all of next year will BE SHORT ON THE CABLE OVERALL
  • #16
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:32pm Dec 27, 2006 8:32pm
You should read Alexander Elder 'Trading for a living'.

In it there's a part that describes past 'gurus' who brought new techniques in trading. The thing is, it worked because the market fits that particular method. Then when the market changes, these 'gurus' sort of dissapear. I remember one of those forgotten 'guru' was Elliott. So yea, it's pointless and was a one hit wonder..nothing else
  • #17
  • Dec 27, 2006 10:03pm Dec 27, 2006 10:03pm
Hey USC,

If it ain' broke, don't fix it! Having said that, learn something about EW. I'm not suggesting you become an EW expert, but gaining a general understanding can be helpful.

Not everyone can be a doctor, pilot, or elliotition. Different things click with different people. It may be helpful for you, it may not, but you won't know until you try.

Personally, I spent a lot of time w/ it and didn't have much success until I backed off EW and introduced other things. I still use it along with a slew of other "stuff." I'm glad I put the time into it.

Kind regards.
  • #18
  • Dec 27, 2006 11:39pm Dec 27, 2006 11:39pm
I can agree with that last post just dont go too crazy basing every decision on it. Just because you are not a clock maker doesn't mean you cant read the time. Learn how to read time when it comes to EW, but dont get boggled in all of its useless intricacies.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #19
  • Dec 28, 2006 12:11am Dec 28, 2006 12:11am
go to the the elliot wave threads (there are several one just started on the euro) and monitor what they say and what actually happens. Itme on low risk high reward trading uses it see what his results are. I am lerning more and more about price action supports resistence pivot points and fibs.
Quoting Leugimp
I can agree with that last post just dont go too crazy basing every decision on it. Just because you are not a clock maker doesn't mean you cant read the time. Learn how to read time when it comes to EW, but dont get boggled in all of its useless intricacies.
  • #20
  • Dec 28, 2006 5:53am Dec 28, 2006 5:53am
For me this is a no brainer... Should you take the time to learn something new is the real question. Not just should you learn EW. Well, I have studied EW and it is facinating. Does it work? Beats me, but I sure am glad I took the time to learn as much as I have. I certainly am no expert. When it comes to increasing one's education, it is always the correct choice. Knowledge is what powers human endeavor. Even when I learn something that I see no practical use for, it was most definitely worth the effort.

Even some of the total crap I have paid for and learned, turned out to give me the seed of ideas for things that were truly valuable to me. You just never know where inspiration will take residence. So should you learn EW?
Hell yes, how else will you, yourself make an informed decision as to whether or not you can make use of it?




Quoting andersenws
I feel that I am at a crucial point in learning Forex right now. I think that with a couple of good books and 6-12 months more live trading, I could confidently step into the world of full time trading. However, Elliot wave is appealing to me. Should I attempt to learn it? It seems like I could spend the time necessary to learn it (years, I hear) since I am a college student. But on the other hand I think that I could be profitable without it. Also, the books mentioned above are Trading in the Zone and Quantitive Trading and Money Management, if any one is wondering.

Thanks,
andersenws
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