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The Art of Trading with MTF Stochastics

  • #201
  • Nov 7, 2007 7:53pm Nov 7, 2007 7:53pm
PipAV8tor...

Nice trade -- I'm jealous!

I waited all day for that one but was pulled completely out of it by my cousin calling to see how I was doing. Ahhh, next time...



Quoting PipAV8tor
I caught part of that move on the EUR/USD. Got in at 1.4653 and out at 1.4635 for +18. almost missed it. Was watching the CAD/USD. Looked like it was setting up for a sell, but took off straight up for about 150 pips. I wanted to get in but just couldn't do it. Stoch on the 15m was hovering around 80 and turned up instead of down. Glad I waited. There was no indication or announcement that sent it soaring, as it happened around 2 pm CST.

Correction, the CAD/USD is now up 400 pips for the day.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #202
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:04pm Nov 7, 2007 8:04pm
Hi Tommy,

You're something else.

Thanks very much for your crystal clear explanation. As usual, you've left no stone unturned. I have two of Elder's books -- now reading Come Into My Trading Room, and hope to get to Trading for a Living before year's end; lots of great material.

Really appreciate your generous effort.

Thanks again...


Quoting Tommy_C
Jeff,

I looked through the price action for the GBP/JPY for this week and I found two really good tradeable examples of negative divergence just within the last 24 hours. Take a look at the chart, and if you have anymore questions, I'll do my best to try to answer them.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #203
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:55pm Nov 7, 2007 8:55pm
Here's another short trade I made this evening.

Price had moved really far down during the day, blowing past all of the pivot points. Following the London close, price retraced back into a 61.8% retracement that was nearby a 50% retracement from a higher price level, as well as near a pivot point and some prior lows that could serve as resistance. Price then traded sideways for a while while the M15 and M30 stochs went OB. Then the M15 stochs turned down, the M30 and H1 stochs started flattening out, and price closed back below the daily S3 pivot point. I went short soon after the opening of the next bar. I was, at first, looking for price to go down to the 236.00 level, but I didn't like the way the H4 stochs looked. It looked to me like the H4 was flattening out and getting ready to go up. Consequently, I decided to take a more modest profit. I closed 45 minutes later with +34 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 07NOV2007 (2).gif Size: 105 KB
  • #204
  • Nov 8, 2007 4:23am Nov 8, 2007 4:23am
Quoting Pluto2
Hello Moneda,
thank you for sharing your great templates. I have a problem with the template from post 159. When I load the template on to my charts, only the candle window will show. I am probably missing the indicator that you have used for your stoch. window.
Thanks for your help
Regards
Hello Pluto,

Hmmm, not sure what is going on. Check your timeframe on your chart. The template is for 15min. This week is pretty busy for me but I will be more active in the forum next week.

Ask Jeff to help you...he is very helpful.

Good luck.

Let me attach it again......
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl spud.srdc15.tpl   10 KB | 516 downloads
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #205
  • Nov 8, 2007 5:12am Nov 8, 2007 5:12am
Quoting moneda
Hello Pluto,

Hmmm, not sure what is going on. Check your timeframe on your chart. The template is for 15min. This week is pretty busy for me but I will be more active in the forum next week.

Ask Jeff to help you...he is very helpful.

Good luck.

Let me attach it again......
moneda,

I think that the issue is it is not enough to just post the template. You need to also post the specific indicators that the template uses. For example: if your template uses an indicator that he doesn't have, then it obviously wouldn't show up whenever he loads the template.
  • #206
  • Nov 8, 2007 5:22am Nov 8, 2007 5:22am
Hello Tommy,

I really enjoyed your analysis of the what each TF stochastic was doing and you thought process during the trade, including use of pivots and SR. Can you post additional examples of this as they arise? It's certainly something I need to add to my approach.

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting Tommy_C
Here's another short trade I made this evening.

Price had moved really far down during the day, blowing past all of the pivot points. Following the London close, price retraced back into a 61.8% retracement that was nearby a 50% retracement from a higher price level, as well as near a pivot point and some prior lows that could serve as resistance. Price then traded sideways for a while while the M15 and M30 stochs went OB. Then the M15 stochs turned down, the M30 and H1 stochs started flattening out, and price closed back below the daily S3 pivot point. I went short soon after the opening of the next bar. I was, at first, looking for price to go down to the 236.00 level, but I didn't like the way the H4 stochs looked. It looked to me like the H4 was flattening out and getting ready to go up. Consequently, I decided to take a more modest profit. I closed 45 minutes later with +34 pips.
  • #207
  • Nov 8, 2007 5:38am Nov 8, 2007 5:38am
Quoting CanuckCT
Hello Tommy,

I really enjoyed your analysis of the what each TF stochastic was doing and you thought process during the trade, including use of pivots and SR. Can you post additional examples of this as they arise? It's certainly something I need to add to my approach.

Cheers,
CanuckCT
Not a problem Canuck. I'll be happy to. In fact, I'll post the pivot point indicators I use. Pivot points are a wonderful way to see potential support and resistance areas each day. They work so well because so many people use them to set their orders. Consequently, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But that's a good thing.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 _Pivots_upper.mq4   3 KB | 591 downloads
File Type: mq4 _Pivots_lower.mq4   4 KB | 581 downloads
  • #208
  • Edited 6:17am Nov 8, 2007 5:46am | Edited 6:17am
Guys,
I've been watching this setup for about the past hour. Really looks like things are coming together for a sell situation. The 4 hour is still up but nearing 80 and could easily push back over, divergence with higher price but lower high on the stoch. The day chart is overbought and looks ready to cross. Anybody else watching?

Update 8:00 CST: 1 hr has been channeling between its r1 and s1 all week, about a 300 pip range. the day ch just had a double tap at its r1 and is over-bought. stoch has crossed but is not yet below 80. Should be sometime in the next hour. The 15m and 5m are in re-trace positions at the 238.00 area. I think if this range (emotional) gets broken, it may fall like it did yesterday to the 236.00 or 235.00 level.

Update 8:15 CST In a sell at 237.82. Wish me luck.
  • #209
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:04am Nov 8, 2007 6:04am
Canuck,

I went ahead and whipped up a chart to show how pivot points can help provide a "roadmap" of sorts. Look at this chart of the GBP/JPY from just this last night. I put white arrows to show each place price reacted to a pivot point just since the London open last night. By using pivot points, you can get a good idea of where to place stops, and also where to anticipate price might find support or resistance. They are invaluable in placing take profit orders because, as you can see, price gets drawn to the pivot points like a magnet. Why? Because so many large orders are waiting at those levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pivot point examples.gif Size: 99 KB
  • #210
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:13am Nov 8, 2007 6:13am
Sold at 238.04...looking for 237

Quoting PipAV8tor
Guys,
I've been watching this setup for about the past hour. Really looks like things are coming together for a sell situation. The 4 hour is still up but nearing 80 and could easily push back over, divergence with higher price but lower high on the stoch. The day chart is overbought and looks ready to cross. Anybody else watching?

Update 8:00 CST: 1 hr has been channeling between its r1 and s1 all week, about a 300 pip range. the day ch just had a double tap at its r1 and is over-bought. stoch has crossed but is not yet below 80. Should be sometime in the next hour. The 15m and 5m are in re-trace positions at the 238.00 area. I think if this range (emotional) gets broken, it may fall like it did yesterday to the 236.00 or 235.00 level.
  • #211
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:15am Nov 8, 2007 6:15am
Tommy,

My pivots are off a bit from your levels. Maybe a time zone thing? I'm on Atlantic time. Thanks - I'm going to start using this today.

Cheers,

Ben

Quoting Tommy_C
Canuck,

I went ahead and whipped up a chart to show how pivot points can help provide a "roadmap" of sorts. Look at this chart of the GBP/JPY from just this last night. I put white arrows to show each place price reacted to a pivot point just since the London open last night. By using pivot points, you can get a good idea of where to place stops, and also where to anticipate price might find support or resistance. They are invaluable in placing take profit orders because, as you can see, price gets drawn to the pivot points like a magnet. Why? Because so many large orders are waiting at those levels.
  • #212
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:22am Nov 8, 2007 6:22am
Quoting CanuckCT
Tommy,

My pivots are off a bit from your levels. Maybe a time zone thing? I'm on Atlantic time. Thanks - I'm going to start using this today.

Cheers,

Ben
Ben,

It's not so much what time zone you are in, as much as it is what broker you use. I use interbankfx, and the charts I have are all in GMT. You need to find out if your broker uses GMT or EST or some other time zone. Once you find that out, I can tell you how to change the settings on those indicators to get the same pivot points.
  • #213
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:25am Nov 8, 2007 6:25am
Tommy,
My broker uses GMT and I'm in Atlantic time zone - so I adjust one hour from the default settings and voila.

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting Tommy_C
Ben,

It's not so much what time zone you are in, as much as it is what broker you use. I use interbankfx, and the charts I have are all in GMT. You need to find out if your broker uses GMT or EST or some other time zone. Once you find that out, I can tell you how to change the settings on those indicators to get the same pivot points.
  • #214
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:34am Nov 8, 2007 6:34am
Quoting CanuckCT
Sold at 238.04...looking for 237
Banked 40 and moved stop to BE.
  • #215
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:48am Nov 8, 2007 6:48am
Quoting CanuckCT
Sold at 238.04...looking for 237
Support broken at 237.65. Next support 236.65 on the 1 hr. After that 235.65. I'm gonna try to stay in for a while, as I have no time conflicts and can watch.

I'm trying to post a screen shot, but not having any luck. File is too big, but when I shrink it, you can't read it. Any suggestions. I'm not a computer guy, I'm a pip warrior!!
  • #216
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:54am Nov 8, 2007 6:54am
Hey PipAV8tor,

I moved my stop to BE and got stopped out. Did bank some pips but now it's gone the other way and turned into a very good trade - although any positive trade is still a good trade, regardless of the amount.

So where, when and why did you put your stops and profit targets for this trade.

I wonder if Tommy could comment also.

Thanks
CanuckCT

Quoting PipAV8tor
Support broken at 237.65. Next support 236.65 on the 1 hr. After that 235.65. I'm gonna try to stay in for a while, as I have no time conflicts and can watch.
  • #217
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:56am Nov 8, 2007 6:56am
Quoting PipAV8tor
Support broken at 237.65. Next support 236.65 on the 1 hr. After that 235.65. I'm gonna try to stay in for a while, as I have no time conflicts and can watch.
Pipav8tor,

Just beware of the daily central pivot point at 236.95. It is close to a major psychological level of 237.00. I'd expect some heavy resistance, if not a halfway decent retracement at that level.

Good luck. I wish I had gone short when you called our attention to it.
  • #218
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:57am Nov 8, 2007 6:57am
Quoting CanuckCT
Hey PipAV8tor,

I moved my stop to BE and got stopped out. Did bank some pips but now it's gone the other way and turned into a very good trade - although any positive trade is still a good trade, regardless of the amount.

So where, when and why did you put your stops and profit targets for this trade.

I wonder if Tommy could comment also.

Thanks
CanuckCT
Were it me, I'd set my take profit at the central pivot point of 236.95. Actually, I'd go for 237.00 since that is such a psychologically significant number. Of course you have to add the spread when you are buying, so my take profit would be at 237.10.
  • #219
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:05am Nov 8, 2007 7:05am
I do anticipate support right at 237.00. Same thing happened yesterday, before it went into the 235.50 range. The stoch's are still aimed down, so I am going to lock in some pips and see how far it runs. If I do get over 100, wish is within sight. I will get out and just watch the ride. Need to keep GREED out of the picture. 100 pips isn't just a good day, it is a good week.
  • #220
  • Nov 8, 2007 9:21am Nov 8, 2007 9:21am
Nice setup. Price around pivot, M15 oversold and turning up. M30 and H1 also pointing up. Take profit at first resistance. 100 pip move.
Cheers,
CanuckCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad m15.gif Size: 17 KB
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