DislikedThat is a very good question. There is no doubt that there are large reserves in the tar sands of venezuela and canada, and there is likely a good bit of oil left in alaska. However, these resources will do nothing but slightly flatten the downward curve of global oil production.
To answer your question properly would take about 50 pages of writing. However the short answer is that the major oil fields are all in decline, and these major fields have been the source of the majority of the oil produced during the petroleum age. As the major fields pass peak, their production begins declining. This decline rate can be from 5%/year to more than 15%/year. We are at the point where we literally have to add millions of barrels/day of production capacity each year just to account for decline rates in the large fields. It is like a treadmill that keeps getting faster and faster. At some point, you can no longer keep up and you fall behind. At that point, no amount of effort can even get you back to where you were to begin with.
The odds of finding another giant or supergiant oil field similar to those discovered in the past is basically zero. The replacements, such as the tar sands in Canada, while large in reserves, can only be exploited at a relatively low rate. There is a big difference between drilling a 1000 foot well and having 50,000 barrels/day come out and having to strip mine millions of tons of rock, haul by truck to a processing plant, separate the tar, use a 1000 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel to add hydrogen to the tar, further process the oil and then clean up the mess to get that same 50,000 barrels/day.
As for Alaska, we could start tomorrow and you would never even notice the impact on global production. If you don't believe me, take a look at US production rates from 1970 to 1980. The US production peaked in 1970, and we scrambled to open up alaska. When the alaska pipeline started flowing, all we succeeded in doing was halt the US production decline for 1 year. Decline rates in the lower 48 states wiped out the alaska production increase almost instantly.
Global oil production peaked in 2005, and we have been scrambling to maintain approximately that level for the past 2 years. By this time next year, it will be obvious that we have passed the peak and we are heading down the backside.
Peak Oil is the main reason that I am so convinced that the US and the world have a very bleak future. We have used the excess energy stored over 200 million years to expand humanity and civilization far beyond what we should have been able to. We will not be able to substitute nearly fast enough to maintain our energy output, and I expect a global collapse.
I hope I am wrong, but I really am afraid that I am not.Ignored
this is something i most adore about this thread...fundamental that will reflect our technical. thanks to markam and all.
what is your tought on oil substitute? Bio-fuel for cars, nuke energy or solar, do you think it will help to slow down oil price hike? within 5 years may be?
