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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,281
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:23pm Nov 7, 2007 2:23pm
I think we will test 9350 and above as oil has pulled back a bit BUT I don't see that lasting as I don't know who would want to be short crude going into the weekend.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,282
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:42pm Nov 7, 2007 2:42pm
Wow, an incredible run for an hour, to be sure... but looks like the party is coming to an end.
  • #2,283
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:44pm Nov 7, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting Subdude
Wow, an incredible run for an hour, to be sure... but looks like the party is coming to an end.
Just better for a shorting!!
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,284
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:43pm Nov 7, 2007 3:43pm
What do you attribute this jump to - just a drop in oil prices? If so, isn't it reasonable to bank on the trend to continue going into the colder time of year?

The hourly chart seems to indicate a continuing gap fill, too.
  • #2,285
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:46pm Nov 7, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting Subdude
What do you attribute this jump to - just a drop in oil prices? If so, isn't it reasonable to bank on the trend to continue going into the colder time of year?

The hourly chart seems to indicate a continuing gap fill, too.
Oil dropped a few dollars today on profit taking after US supply numbers came in higher than expected.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,286
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:31pm Nov 7, 2007 4:31pm
Holy $#%^, that's all I have to say... 9 hours later, 320 pips higher.
  • #2,287
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:57pm Nov 7, 2007 4:57pm
just see the 4 h chart! also Intervention by canada is the high possibility.
lot of stops at 0.9500, 0.9800- will be clean nicely!
  • #2,288
  • Nov 7, 2007 5:06pm Nov 7, 2007 5:06pm
Quoting forex100
just see the 4 h chart! also Intervention by canada is the high possibility.
lot of stops at 0.9500, 0.9800- will be clean nicely!
I don't know where you get your market data. Back to parity? Not likely to happen until next year.
  • #2,289
  • Nov 7, 2007 5:43pm Nov 7, 2007 5:43pm
Haha. Do you think it is really a reverse? No. Oil dropped to $95 from $98 today. That's why. And of course oil price will hit $100 very soon. Don't make a mistake. If you really think this is the reverse, you will get a margin call. There will be no reverse until next year.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2,290
  • Nov 7, 2007 7:27pm Nov 7, 2007 7:27pm
Just opened my charts and saw the 3 1/2 cent retrace. Insane I tell ya. Is the usd/cad suppose to do this? Obviously someone is trying to knock some sense back into this pair.

unless china wants to diversify into loonies
  • #2,291
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:41am Nov 8, 2007 8:41am
For profit you go short, for profit in my account you go long
  • #2,292
  • Nov 8, 2007 3:14pm Nov 8, 2007 3:14pm
Two day chart looks much like a double top, let's see what happens from here.
  • #2,293
  • Edited 8:00am Nov 9, 2007 4:38am | Edited 8:00am
While the last move up did occur during a period of increased market volatility, there was no significant news to create it and oil was increasing disproportionately to the subsequent 347 pip rise in the USD/CAD pair that occurred over the course of nine hours. The pair then put in a substantial base at approximately .9250. This all leads me to believe that significant money changed hands at a very low price; hence it may be more than profit taking. The commercial investors may have finally drawn their line; at last check the COT sentiment has reached an extreme and the graph has become 'cautiously bullish' on the pair.

From a chartist perspective, this is the first decent occurrence of a hammer after a downtrend in the daily or the weekly charts as far back as I can observe. It is also forming a triangle as I write in the alleged 'uptrend,' typically a continuation pattern. If it does continue from here it likely won't gain back the 6 grand worth of pips it lost since January of 2003, but it could be a significant run.

Of course, if tomorrow the pair drops to .8300 this entire analysis will be worth refried dog excrement.
  • #2,294
  • Nov 9, 2007 12:27pm Nov 9, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting inflxshn
While the last move up did occur during a period of increased market volatility, there was no significant news to create it and oil was increasing disproportionately to the subsequent 347 pip rise in the USD/CAD pair that occurred over the course of nine hours. The pair then put in a substantial base at approximately .9250. This all leads me to believe that significant money changed hands at a very low price; hence it may be more than profit taking. The commercial investors may have finally drawn their line; at last check the COT sentiment has reached an extreme and the graph has become 'cautiously bullish' on the pair.

From a chartist perspective, this is the first decent occurrence of a hammer after a downtrend in the daily or the weekly charts as far back as I can observe. It is also forming a triangle as I write in the alleged 'uptrend,' typically a continuation pattern. If it does continue from here it likely won't gain back the 6 grand worth of pips it lost since January of 2003, but it could be a significant run.

Of course, if tomorrow the pair drops to .8300 this entire analysis will be worth refried dog excrement.
Nice analysis. It certainly does seem to be quite angry at shorts at the moment, but keep in mind that the $ is up across the board. Also, chart-wise it just filled the gap below 0.9450. It would have to go up to 0.9700 levels for me to start talking about a reversal. Of course, if oil prices keeps falling, this may very well happen relatively soon - I still don't see a return to parity for quite a few weeks though.
  • #2,295
  • Edited 3:26pm Nov 9, 2007 3:15pm | Edited 3:26pm
What do you think ?............
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Usd/Cad - Was Today's rally a Short Covering Rally ?


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( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-11-09-2007-#2.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #2,296
  • Nov 11, 2007 10:55pm Nov 11, 2007 10:55pm
YAY REVERSAL! I called it
  • #2,297
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:00pm Nov 11, 2007 11:00pm
Quoting MoForce
YAY REVERSAL! I called it
congrats!
  • #2,298
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:01pm Nov 11, 2007 11:01pm
Quoting MoForce
YAY REVERSAL! I called it
I see a clear pattern on the chart that indicates the opposite. I call that pattern "my ass!".
  • #2,299
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:06pm Nov 11, 2007 11:06pm
Reversal? $100.00 oil is still a possibility especially with OPEC talking out of the side of their neck.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,300
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:46pm Nov 11, 2007 11:46pm
Quoting Subdude
I see a clear pattern on the chart that indicates the opposite. I call that pattern "my ass!".
now thats funny!
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
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