Much of What You Know About 4X is Wrong! | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trade What You Know and Know What You Trade 4 replies

When do you know you ready to go from demo to real trading? 61 replies

Seven Big Things Professors Won’t Teach You (But You Should Know) 0 replies

Attachments: Much of What You Know About 4X is Wrong!
Exit Attachments

Much of What You Know About 4X is Wrong!

  • #121
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:11pm Nov 6, 2007 1:11pm
Why is there such a fixation with stops???

Regardless of who takes them out.
  • #122
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:13pm Nov 6, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why is there such a fixation with stops???

Regardless of who takes them out.
B/C some people use this information to make profits? Well that would be my fixation I guess.
  • #123
  • Nov 6, 2007 10:34pm Nov 6, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting Micro-MiniMe
You raise some good points. I wish I had started with stocks...I find them much more predictable in the long term. Oh well...

One of my favorite analogies from Street Smarts was the comparison of fishing to trading. I'd like to modify the authors view and say that trading is like fishing because sometimes the fish gets away, most times you catch small fish, but when you do catch a big fish it can be long (Northern Pike) or short (Large Mouth Bass). Unfortunately, most of the big fish stay well hiden under brush or in deep water making them hard to catch without substantial risk.

Trading is risky to say the least, regardless of how you approach it. Many famous traders have implied that their best trades were the hardest ones to enter. In my estimation, all trades are equally (or should be) hard to enter. When your sure you have an edge, that's when you're most vunerable to a big supprise.

Perhaps we should be discussing ways to determine trend change, consolidation, exhaustion ect. It seams to me that most losses happen when market conditions change. It's my goal to become more adaptable to these changes.

Take care
Yes. You are right, stocks are more predictable. But personally, I strongly recommend fundamental analysis for investment in stocks.

As for the analogy of comparing fishing and trade, I couldn't agree more. Do you know at what price did I set up my E/U, G/U long positions since middle of August? I set up at on august 21 1.3470 for EU, for GU it is 1.9903. That is the time trends to show up, and the price where I could obtain good profits.

But, I didn't make any money and suffered loss due to short trading during this period!!!

The fishing needs patience, patience and patience.

IMHO, trend can only be defined after hands. I also agree with you that after a trend is clear, maybe it is too late to jump into.

The most difficulty is to judge whether a retracement is a retracement or the first wave of a new trend. In this case, I may say trading success depends on your belief. And this is the reason why different people reach different conclusions watching the same charts!

As for the trend determination, only and only fundamentals is deciding factor.

P.S. How to insert a picture inside the text?
  • #124
  • Nov 6, 2007 11:42pm Nov 6, 2007 11:42pm
You were doing pretty good until -
Quoting Green_David
As for the trend determination, only and only fundamentals is deciding factor.
When typing a reply, look below for Additional Options - Manage Attachments to upload an image.

Quoting Green_David
P.S. How to insert a picture inside the text?
  • #125
  • Nov 7, 2007 12:33am Nov 7, 2007 12:33am
Quoting SunTrader
You were doing pretty good until -


When typing a reply, look below for Additional Options - Manage Attachments to upload an image.
Thank you.

I tried before, but it only showed attachment the file name, not picture itself. Pls help me, I want to use the chart to illustrate.
Attached Image
  • #126
  • Nov 7, 2007 12:51am Nov 7, 2007 12:51am
Quoting Green_David
Thank you.

I tried before, but it only showed attachment the file name, not picture itself. Pls help me, I want to use the chart to illustrate.
use a jpg, bmp only show up as attachments
  • #127
  • Nov 7, 2007 1:15am Nov 7, 2007 1:15am
Quoting mbqb11
use a jpg, bmp only show up as attachments

Thank you very much.
  • #128
  • Nov 7, 2007 1:22am Nov 7, 2007 1:22am
Quoting mbqb11
I could have missed a post here

But this is so far from the case. The big players know where the stops are gathered. The only stop hunting brokers do are those random spikes that show up on only their feed.
sorry, not true.

by the way, i love the 'their feed' bit - they make the feed and they stop hunt it according to their balance book.

ive lost count of the number of times i've seen it happen - oh and i've seen it happen at a broker's offices also - they all do it to some extent - some more than others. IBFX is one of the worst.

Tell you what - chance to prove me wrong here, tell me exactly how a big player hunts a stop, where they get the info from - and why they would do it in the first place?

also, do you have any real idea of how much money it takes to move the real market? - take a wild guess.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #129
  • Nov 7, 2007 1:43am Nov 7, 2007 1:43am
Quoting soultrader
Tell you what - chance to prove me wrong here, tell me exactly how a big player hunts a stop, where they get the info from - and why they would do it in the first place?

also, do you have any real idea of how much money it takes to move the real market? - take a wild guess.
that is just it, i don't need to prove you wrong, your own ego prevents you from ever learning anything new so it doesn't matter..

You speak about all this knowledge you have about how the markets work yet you lack basic understanding of what is taking place everyday by the big players.


WHY would they do this?
Markets are about liquidity.
It is a constant search for liquidity. If you truly believe that big players aren't gunning for stops in search of this, well nothing I need to prove to you. Your own ego has yet again got in the way of perhaps learning something new. And if you really want to learn about some new things that might actually help you, do a search for Darkstar(believe it or not there are a lot of other knowledgeable people here that know a thing or two, before you came here guns blazing for 1kt)
  • #130
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:01am Nov 7, 2007 2:01am
Quoting SunTrader
You were doing pretty good until -


When typing a reply, look below for Additional Options - Manage Attachments to upload an image.
Let explain something to you and other friends and as a base for discussion with all the interested traders.

The picture is a daily EUR/USD chart from middle of June to middle of October.

Circle A: really difficult to say whether it is will continue the main trend (i.e. up trend), or it is just a retracement of the retracement of main trend. It turned out to be the latter.

Circle B: It is one of major retracement of the main trend since Dec. 2005. But, the reason in my opinion: subprime crisis caused E/J carry trades positions closed. Here fundamental comes, technical analysis can't give any sound reason and it could be any result form chart.

Circle C: a consolidation or retracement period. It is the most challenging part to find the true trend. Notice that the last candle's lowest price did not exceed the the lowest price within Circle C!. But, I lost my long-position during that period, and worse, started to short E/U. I shorted because I think FED will not lower interest rate for the sake of "moral risk" and US economy is not that bad and Circle A is a beginning of stronger USD. But I made a mistake. Here, only fundamental again.

Candle 1: actually on that day's close, a double bottom is formed!! So, is that trend difficult to find out? Notice in Circle A, there is also a double bottom, and it is only for a retracement due to fundamental reason.

Candle 2: It is Sept 5th, and it is a very important day for trend. Why there is increase on that day? And the price finished consolidation and went up again so such a determinant way? Because an economic data:
Pending Home Sales m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -12.2% -2.0% 5.0%

Pls notice, this data is only a lowest impact data, but it is so bad that it is a 7 years low. Here, fundamental again.

Candle 3: Sept. 7th. It is a bad NFP data, and a negative figure.

Candle 4: Spt. 18th. FED announced a 0.5% interest rate drop, the market expectation is 0.25%.

And since middle of August, most of US economic data are negative. And this is the reason the up-trend continues.

So it is not difficult to say, main trend is determined by fundamental.

If you have some knowledge about fundamental analysis (and you don't need to to the level of an economist), it is very helpful to find real trend and not be confused about consolidation and retracement.

Opinions and comments are welcome!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.JPG Size: 45 KB
  • #131
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:38am Nov 7, 2007 2:38am
Quoting mbqb11
that is just it, i don't need to prove you wrong, your own ego prevents you from ever learning anything new so it doesn't matter..

You speak about all this knowledge you have about how the markets work yet you lack basic understanding of what is taking place everyday by the big players.


WHY would they do this?
Markets are about liquidity.
It is a constant search for liquidity. If you truly believe that big players aren't gunning for stops in search of this, well nothing I need to prove to you. Your own ego has yet again got in the way of perhaps learning something new. And if you really want to learn about some new things that might actually help you, do a search for Darkstar(believe it or not there are a lot of other knowledgeable people here that know a thing or two, before you came here guns blazing for 1kt)
why do people get so angry and insulting when i ask a question on here or say something they don't agree with? own ego maybe?

so teach me obiwan. where do they get the info and why would they do it when it takes about 100mio to move the market half a pip when it's sleeping? - so if the stops are like 5 pips away why would they spend a yard to hit stops?

as for me knowing what the 'big players' are doing - how many 'big players' do you know exactly? - is this based on fact or are you supposing? can you define for me what a 'big player' is?

sounds like paranoia to me but please feel free to discuss, preferably without the insults if you can manage that. I have not insulted you so why do you feel the need to do so with me?

Please keep your emotions in tack.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #132
  • Nov 7, 2007 2:49am Nov 7, 2007 2:49am
Quoting soultrader
why do people get so angry and insulting when i ask a question on here or say something they don't agree with? own ego maybe?

so teach me obiwan. where do they get the info and why would they do it when it takes about 100mio to move the market half a pip when it's sleeping? - so if the stops are like 5 pips away why would they spend a yard to hit stops?

as for me knowing what the 'big players' are doing - how many 'big players' do you know exactly? - is this based on fact or are you supposing? can you define for me what a 'big player' is?

sounds like paranoia to me but please feel free to discuss, preferably without the insults if you can manage that. I have not insulted you so why do you feel the need to do so with me?

Please keep your emotions in tack.
Every time someone disagrees with you, you immediately discount their view point. Or have some way to put them down(see obiwan).

As for me wanting to explain something to you at this point just isn't on my list of things to do. If you care to learn more read through some of Darkstars posts as I have previously said.




Take care
Mike
  • #133
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:04am Nov 7, 2007 3:04am
thx for the good info
  • #134
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:16am Nov 7, 2007 3:16am
i don't want to read Darkstar's posts - i want to understand why you think this is so and what evidence you have to support this belief. Darkstar also talks of brokers stop hunting their book - he calls them a 'confluence of stops' - i just call em a bunch - the only thing between me and darkstar on broker stop hunting is the frequency - I know for a fact it happens more often than most think because i know several brokers. He also says that you would need very very deep pockets to be a stop hunter which I agree with, however as you can never know the full market depth as there is no central exchange then stop hunting would be probably the most foolish course of action anyone could ever take. There is no logic in it APART from if you are a broker.

as for your comment that I 'immediately discount their view point' - isnt that the point of a forum? to discuss and evaluate? this is a place to air one's opinions and you seem to take it personally - maybe the dose is a bit high on your prozac?

This isn't personal it's a discussion - as for obiwan, well forgive me for having a sense of humour!

Jeezze gimme a break

go gold go
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #135
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:18am Nov 7, 2007 3:18am
There are ONLY two big players in this market, Central and big banks and I hate to spoil your fun here but they are not hunting for stops, too professional for that, They are hunting for the big orders. Say it with me kids, orders not stops. Why would ECB go after your pathetic little stop loss? Please, they dont even look at us, and besides like soul trader says it takes ALOT of money to move the market, They are not going to spend billions to collect your thousand. On the other hand the brokers price on their charts may spike a few pips to knock out some scalpers but thats really just going after pocket change and should be illiegal but its not.
Don't listen to me, I have no idea what I'm talking about but UBS and Credit Suisse do.
Just Trade It
  • #136
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:25am Nov 7, 2007 3:25am
ok you both got me, big money never pushes price to where stops(which are orders) are. There is no benefit for them. Sorry for the confusion.

Wonder what I have been exploiting then
  • #137
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:45am Nov 7, 2007 3:45am
Mike, there's no need to go sit in the corner and suck your thumb. your opinion is just as important as anyone elses including mine. Just that when faced with a belief as strong as yours about stop hunting I was trying to find out what was underpinning that belief. Mine is with cold hard facts of what i absolutely know to be true from my experience with brokers and 'big players' as you call them. so often though traders build a belief based on heresay and moaning traders (particularly the stop hunting myth) or myths spoken by someone else who doesnt have a clue.

as for what youve been taking advantage of, well If you explain what you do then maybe i have an idea.

If you trade towards stops or where you think they will be then you are trading the momentum of the herd and that of the big boys.

If you trade counter from the position and starting from where you think stops are then you arent hunting stops, you are taking advantage of where big players have orders to get into the market, not to get out.

sure stops get hit - if a market has been at a level for a long time then stops will build on either side of that level - but retail stops are tiny in comparison to 'big money' orders to enter the market rather that exit it. and big boys dont have stops like most retail traders expect.

so if you buy at what you consider to be a stop level then it doesnt mean you were helped by someone pushing it down - it means you correctly identified an area where the big boys thought this would be worth buyng.

if you sold before the level was reached then you rode the wave of momentum of the big money until they pulled out at which time you did the same - again this isnt stop hunting, it's your judgement of momentum and gauging a good area of fair value.

saying that you are riding on the back of stop hunters in fact is an injustice to your own judgement which if you are doing either and making money is better than you give it credit for. the market puts us down enough without us helping it

you can see that i'm not saying the method of trading is rubbish or putting you down for doing it - in fact the opposite is true. But I do want you to understand that you arent chasing stops but just doing good trading practice.

Go Cable go
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #138
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:49am Nov 7, 2007 3:49am
Quoting mbqb11
ok you both got me, big money never pushes price to where stops(which are orders) are. There is no benefit for them. Sorry for the confusion.

Wonder what I have been exploiting then

Yes stops are technically orders, But from what my friends (UBS; Credit Suisse and a few priviate investment firms) say they look for the BIG position orders as only a entry as most big banks use fundemental analysis more than technical. Only their floor traders who are trading smaller accounts use TA. The big money movers are more FA.
And yet the debate continues, do they? or do they not? No one can answer this with 100% conviction as big banks and their traders all trade differently.
But I have not heard from anyone here in Zurich about going after stops.
Just Trade It
  • #139
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:04am Nov 7, 2007 4:04am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
There are ONLY two big players in this market, Central and big banks and I hate to spoil your fun here but they are not hunting for stops, too professional for that, They are hunting for the big orders. Say it with me kids, orders not stops. Why would ECB go after your pathetic little stop loss? Please, they dont even look at us, and besides like soul trader says it takes ALOT of money to move the market, They are not going to spend billions to collect your thousand. On the other hand the brokers price on their charts may spike a few pips to knock out some scalpers but thats really just going after pocket change and should be illiegal but its not.
Don't listen to me, I have no idea what I'm talking about but UBS and Credit Suisse do.
well said. I couldnt agree more.

ps...one thing we must remember...we are small fish in a big pond....the big dogs dont worry about us and our little $100 000 live accounts. They put billions into the market. And they want to make billions not hundred thousands
  • #140
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:19am Nov 7, 2007 4:19am
I don't mind the debate and appreciate the response ST/bwr. What it comes down to is trading ones beliefs in the market. In the end if we are making money then that is what counts


Take care guys/gals

Mike
0 traders viewing now